Unifying niche shift studies: insights from biological invasions.

Assessing whether the climatic niche of a species may change between different geographic areas or time periods has become increasingly important in the context of ongoing global change. However, approaches and findings have remained largely controversial so far, calling for a unification of methods. Here, we build on a review of empirical studies of invasion to formalize a unifying framework that decomposes niche change into unfilling, stability, and expansion situations, taking both a pooled range and range-specific perspective on the niche, while accounting for climatic availability and climatic analogy. This framework provides new insights into the nature of climate niche shifts and our ability to anticipate invasions, and may help in guiding the design of experiments for assessing causes of niche changes

Selecting predictors to maximize the transferability of species distribution models: lessons from cross-continental plant invasions

Aim: Niche-based models of species distribution (SDMs) are commonly used to predict impacts of global change on biodiversity but the reliability of these predictions in space and time depends on their transferability. We tested how the strategy to choose predictors impacts the SDMs' transferability at a cross-continental scale. Location: North America, Eurasia and Australia Method: We used a systematic approach including 50 Holarctic plant invaders and 27 initial predictor variables, considering 10 different strategies to variable selection, accounting for predictors' proximality, multicollinearity and climate analogy. We compared the average performance per strategy, some of them using a large number of random predictor combinations. Next, we looked for the single best model for each species across all possible predictor combinations, by pooling models across all strategies. Transferability was considered as the predictive success of SDMs calibrated in native range and projected onto the invaded range. Results: Two strategies showed better SDMs' transferability on average: a set of predictors known for their ecologically-meaningful effects on plant distribution, and the two first axes of a principal component analysis calibrated on all predictor variables (Spc2). From the >2000 combinations of predictors per species across strategies, the best set of predictors yielded SDMs with good transferability for 45 species (90%). These best combinations consisted in a random selection of 8 predictors (45 sp) and in Spc2 (5 sp). We also found that internal cross-validation was not sufficient to fully inform about SDMs' transferability to a distinct range. Main conclusion: Transferring SDMs at the macroclimatic scale, and thus anticipating invasions, is possible for the large majority of invasive plants considered in this study, but the predictions' accuracy relies strongly on the choice of predictors. From our results, we recommend including either the state-of-the-art proximal variables or a reduced and orthogonalised set to obtain robust SDMs' projections

Will climate change increase the risk of plant invasions into mountains?

Mountain ecosystems have been less adversely affected by invasions of non-native plants than most other ecosystems, partially because most invasive plants in the lowlands are limited by climate and cannot grow under harsher high-elevation conditions. However, with ongoing climate change, invasive species may rapidly move upwards and threaten mid-, and then high-elevation mountain ecosystems. We evaluated this threat by modeling the current and future habitat suitability for 48 invasive plant species in Switzerland and New South Wales, Australia. Both regions had contrasting climate interactions with elevation, resulting in possible different responses of species distributions to climate change. Using a species distribution modeling approach that combines data from two spatial scales, we built high-resolution species distribution models (≤ 250 m) that account for the global climatic niche of species and also finer variables depicting local climate and disturbances. We found that different environmental drivers limit the elevation range of invasive species in each of the two regions, leading to region-specific species responses to climate change. The optimal suitability for plant invaders is predicted to markedly shift from the lowland to the montane or subalpine zone in Switzerland, whereas the upward shift is far less pronounced in New South Wales where montane and subalpine elevations are already suitable. The results suggest that species most likely to invade high elevations in Switzerland will be cold-tolerant, whereas species with an affinity to moist soils are most likely to invade higher elevations in Australia. Other plant traits were only marginally associated with elevation limits. These results demonstrate that a more systematic consideration of future distributions of invasive species is required in conservation plans of not yet invaded mountainous ecosystems

Plastid DNA variation in Prunus serotina var. serotina (Rosaceae), a North American tree invading Europe

Black cherry (Prunus serotina) is a tree from North America, where it is often used for economical purposes, whereas it is widespread and invasive in Europe. Plastid DNA variation was first investigated in both its native and invasive ranges using microsatellite loci and sequences of three intergenic spacers (trnT-trnL, trnD-trnT and trnS-trnG). This analysis was focused on P. serotina var. serotina, with the inclusion of samples of closely related taxa. Length variation at a microsatellite locus (ccmp5) and a few sequence polymorphisms were identified among P. serotina samples. Four new primer pairs were then designed to specifically amplify variable regions and a combination of five markers was finally proposed for phylogeographic studies in P. serotina. These loci allow identification of six chlorotypes in P. serotina var. serotina, which may be particularly useful to depict the maternal origins of European invasive population

Numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for France.

One of the key input parameters for numerical pollen forecasts is the distribution of pollen sources. Generally, three different methodologies exist to assemble such distribution maps: (1) plant inventories, (2) land use data in combination with annual pollen counts, and (3) ecological modeling. We have used six exemplary maps for all of these methodologies to study their applicability and usefulness in numerical pollen forecasts. The ragweed pollen season of 2012 in France has been simulated with the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-ART using each of the distribution maps in turn. The simulated pollen concentrations were statistically compared to measured values to derive a ranking of the maps with respect to their performance. Overall, approach (2) resulted in the best correspondence between observed and simulated pollen concentrations for the year 2012. It is shown that maps resulting from ecological modeling that does not include a sophisticated estimation of the plant density have a very low predictive skill. For inventory maps and the maps based on land use data and pollen counts, the results depend very much on the observational site. The use of pollen counts to calibrate the map enhances the performance of the model considerably

Comparison of the Electronic Structures and Energetics of Ferroelectric LiNbO3 and LiTaO3

This paper explains the origin of the ferroelectric instability in LiNbO3 and LiTaO3 and compares the electronic structures and energetics of the two materials.Comment: 31 pages, 11 Postscript figure

The mossy north : an inverse latitudinal diversity gradient in European bryophytes

It remains hotly debated whether latitudinal diversity gradients are common across taxonomic groups and whether a single mechanism can explain such gradients. Investigating species richness (SR) patterns of European land plants, we determine whether SR increases with decreasing latitude, as predicted by theory, and whether the assembly mechanisms differ among taxonomic groups. SR increases towards the south in spermatophytes, but towards the north in ferns and bryophytes. SR patterns in spermatophytes are consistent with their patterns of beta diversity, with high levels of nestedness and turnover in the north and in the south, respectively, indicating species exclusion towards the north and increased opportunities for speciation in the south. Liverworts exhibit the highest levels of nestedness, suggesting that they represent the most sensitive group to the impact of past climate change. Nevertheless, although the extent of liverwort species turnover in the south is substantially and significantly lower than in spermatophytes, liverworts share with the latter a higher nestedness in the north and a higher turn-over in the south, in contrast to mosses and ferns. The extent to which the similarity in the patterns displayed by spermatophytes and liverworts reflects a similar assembly mechanism remains, however, to be demonstrated.Peer reviewe

Changes in habitat associations during range expansion: disentangling the effects of climate and residence time

The distributions of many species are not at equilibrium with their environment. This includes spreading non-native species and species undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. The habitat associations of these species may change during range expansion as less favourable climatic conditions at expanding range margins may constrain species to use only the most favourable habitats, violating the species distribution model assumption of stationarity. Alternatively, changes in habitat associations could result from density-dependent habitat selection; at range margins, population densities are initially low so species can exhibit density-independent selection of the most favourable habitats, while in the range core, where population densities are higher, species spread into less favourable habitat. We investigate if the habitat preferences of the non-native common waxbill Estrilda astrild changed as they spread in three directions (north, east and south-east) in the Iberian Peninsula. There are different degrees of climatic suitability and colonization speed across range expansion axes, allowing us to separate the effects of climate from residence time. In contrast to previous studies we find a stronger effect of residence time than climate in influencing the prevalence of common waxbills. As well as a strong additive effect of residence time, there were some changes in habitat associations, which were consistent with density-dependent habitat selection. The combination of broader habitat associations and higher prevalence in areas that have been colonised for longer means that species distribution models constructed early in the invasion process are likely to underestimate species’ potential distribution

Cytogenetic analysis of Astylus antis (Perty, 1830) (Coleoptera, Melyridae): Karyotype, heterochromatin and location of ribosomal genes

Cytogenetic analysis of Astylus antis using mitotic and meiotic cells was performed to characterize the haploid and diploid numbers, sex determination system, chromosome morphology, constitutive heterochromatin distribution pattern and chromosomes carrying nucleolus organizer regions (NORs). Analysis of spermatogonial metaphase cells revealed the diploid number 2n = 18, with mostly metacentric chromosomes. Metaphase I cells exhibited 2n = 8II+Xyp and a parachute configuration of the sex chromosomes. Spermatogonial metaphase cells submitted to C-banding showed the presence of small dots of constitutive heterochromatin in the centromeric regions of nearly all the autosomes and on the short arm of the X chromosome (Xp), as well as an additional band on one of the arms of pair 1. Mitotic cells submitted to double staining with base-specific fluorochromes (DAPI-CMA3 ) revealed no regions rich in A+T or G+C sequences. Analysis of spermatogonial mitotic cells after sequential Giemsa/AgNO 3 staining did not reveal any specific mark on the chromosomes. Meiotic metaphase I cells stained with silver nitrate revealed a strong impregnation associated to the sex chromosomes, and in situ hybridization with an 18S rDNA probe showed ribosomal cistrons in an autosomal bivalent

Climatic predictors of species distributions neglect biophysiologically meaningful variables

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) have played a pivotal role in predicting how species might respond to climate change. To generate reliable and realistic predictions from these models requires the use of climate variables that adequately capture physiological responses of species to climate and therefore provide a proximal link between climate and their distributions. Here, we examine whether the climate variables used in plant SDMs are different from those known to influence directly plant physiology. Location: Global. Methods: We carry out an extensive, systematic review of the climate variables used to model the distributions of plant species and provide comparison to the climate variables identified as important in the plant physiology literature. We calculate the top ten SDM and physiology variables at 2.5 degree spatial resolution for the globe and use principal component analyses and multiple regression to assess similarity between the climatic variation described by both variable sets. Results: We find that the most commonly used SDM variables do not reflect the most important physiological variables and differ in two main ways: (i) SDM variables rely on seasonal or annual rainfall as simple proxies of water available to plants and neglect more direct measures such as soil water content; and (ii) SDM variables are typically averaged across seasons or years and overlook the importance of climatic events within the critical growth period of plants. We identify notable differences in their spatial gradients globally and show where distal variables may be less reliable proxies for the variables to which species are known to respond. Main conclusions: There is a growing need for the development of accessible, fine-resolution global climate surfaces of physiological variables. This would provide a means to improve the reliability of future range predictions from SDMs and support efforts to conserve biodiversity in a changing climate