State space models for non‐stationary intermittently coupled systems: an application to the North Atlantic oscillation

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability: The data that are analysed in the paper and the programs that were used to analyse them can be obtained from https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/journal/14679876/seriescdatasetsWe develop Bayesian state space methods for modelling changes to the mean level or temporal correlation structure of an observed time series due to intermittent coupling with an unobserved process. Novel intervention methods are proposed to model the effect of repeated coupling as a single dynamic process. Latent time varying auto‐regressive components are developed to model changes in the temporal correlation structure. Efficient filtering and smoothing methods are derived for the resulting class of models. We propose methods for quantifying the component of variance attributable to an unobserved process, the effect during individual coupling events and the potential for skilful forecasts. The methodology proposed is applied to the study of winter time variability in the dominant pattern of climate variation in the northern hemisphere: the North Atlantic oscillation. Around 70% of the interannual variance in the winter (December–January–February) mean level is attributable to an unobserved process. Skilful forecasts for the winter (December–January–February) mean are possible from the beginning of December.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Best practices for post-processing ensemble climate forecasts, part I: selecting appropriate recalibration methods

ArticleThis is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.This study describes a systematic approach to selecting optimal statistical recalibration methods and hindcast designs for producing reliable probability forecasts on seasonal-to-decadal time scales. A new recalibration method is introduced that includes adjustments for both unconditional and conditional biases in the mean and variance of the forecast distribution, and linear time-dependent bias in the mean. The complexity of the recalibration can be systematically varied by restricting the parameters. Simple recalibration methods may outperform more complex ones given limited training data. A new cross-validation methodology is proposed that allows the comparison of multiple recalibration methods and varying training periods using limited data. Part I considers the effect on forecast skill of varying the recalibration complexity and training period length. The interaction between these factors is analysed for grid box forecasts of annual mean near-surface temperature from the CanCM4 model. Recalibration methods that include conditional adjustment of the ensemble mean outperform simple bias correction by issuing climatological forecasts where the model has limited skill. Trend-adjusted forecasts outperform forecasts without trend adjustment at almost 75% of grid boxes. The optimal training period is around 30 years for trend-adjusted forecasts, and around 15 years otherwise. The optimal training period is strongly related to the length of the optimal climatology. Longer training periods may increase overall performance, but at the expense of very poor forecasts where skill is limited

Sources of uncertainty in future projections of the carbon cycle

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The inclusion of carbon cycle processes within CMIP5 Earth System Models provides the opportunity to explore the relative importance of differences in scenario and climate model representation to future land and ocean carbon fluxes. A two-way ANOVA approach was used to quantify the variability owing to differences between scenarios and between climate models at different lead times. For global ocean carbon fluxes, the variance attributed to differences between Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios exceeds the variance attributed to differences between climate models by around 2025, completely dominating by 2100. This contrasts with global land carbon fluxes, where the variance attributed to differences between climate models continues to dominate beyond 2100. This suggests that modelled processes that determine ocean fluxes are currently better constrained than those of land fluxes, thus we can be more confident in linking different future socio-economic pathways to consequences of ocean carbon uptake than for land carbon uptake. The apparent agreement in atmosphere-ocean carbon fluxes, globally, masks strong climate model differences at a regional level. The North Atlantic and Southern Ocean are key regions, where differences in modelled processes represent an important source of variability in projected regional fluxesMOHC authors were supported by the Joint DECC / Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Cli- mate Programme (GA01101). SY was supported by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University grant “Bayesian Modelling for Quantifying Uncertainty in Climate Predictions” (1-ZV9Z). We acknowl- edge use of R software package (R Core Team 2013). We acknowledge the World Climate Re- search Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP and we thank the climate modelling groups for providing their GCM output (listed in Table 1). Support of this dataset was provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy

Anthropometric indices of Gambian children after one or three annual rounds of mass drug administration with azithromycin for trachoma control.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin, carried out for the control of blinding trachoma, has been linked to reduced mortality in children. While the mechanism behind this reduction is unclear, it may be due, in part, to improved nutritional status via a potential reduction in the community burden of infectious disease. To determine whether MDA with azithromycin improves anthropometric indices at the community level, we measured the heights and weights of children aged 1 to 4 years in communities where one (single MDA arm) or three annual rounds (annual MDA arm) of azithromycin had been distributed. METHODS: Data collection took place three years after treatment in the single MDA arm and one year after the final round of treatment in the annual MDA arm. Mean height-for-age, weight-for-age and weight-for-height z scores were compared between treatment arms. RESULTS: No significant differences in mean height-for-age, weight-for-age or weight-for-height z scores were found between the annual MDA and single MDA arms, nor was there a significant reduction in prevalence of stunting, wasting or underweight between arms. CONCLUSIONS: Our data do not provide evidence that community MDA with azithromycin improved anthropometric outcomes of children in The Gambia. This may suggest reductions in mortality associated with azithromycin MDA are due to a mechanism other than improved nutritional status

The HY5-PIF regulatory module coordinates light and temperature control of photosynthetic gene transcription

The ability to interpret daily and seasonal alterations in light and temperature signals is essential for plant survival. This is particularly important during seedling establishment when the phytochrome photoreceptors activate photosynthetic pigment production for photoautotrophic growth. Phytochromes accomplish this partly through the suppression of phytochrome interacting factors (PIFs), negative regulators of chlorophyll and carotenoid biosynthesis. While the bZIP transcription factor long hypocotyl 5 (HY5), a potent PIF antagonist, promotes photosynthetic pigment accumulation in response to light. Here we demonstrate that by directly targeting a common promoter cis-element (G-box), HY5 and PIFs form a dynamic activation-suppression transcriptional module responsive to light and temperature cues. This antagonistic regulatory module provides a simple, direct mechanism through which environmental change can redirect transcriptional control of genes required for photosynthesis and photoprotection. In the regulation of photopigment biosynthesis genes, HY5 and PIFs do not operate alone, but with the circadian clock. However, sudden changes in light or temperature conditions can trigger changes in HY5 and PIFs abundance that adjust the expression of common target genes to optimise photosynthetic performance and growth

CD27 distinguishes two phases in bone marrow infiltration of splenic marginal zone lymphoma

Aims: To investigate CD27 expression in splenic marginal zone lymphoma (SMZL), an indolent low-grade B-cell lymphoma with constant involvement of the bone marrow, especially with an intrasinusoidal pattern. It is not clear if the neoplastic clone is composed of virgin or somatically mutated B cells. CD27 is reported to be a hallmark of memory B cells. Methods and results: We evaluated 64 bone marrow biopsy specimens (BMBs) from 36 patients with SMZL for the expression of CD27. For comparison, splenectomy specimens of patients with traumatic splenic rupture or with SMZL were used. All BMBs showed lymphomatous infiltration. When located in the marrow sinusoids, neoplastic cells were CD27- in all cases and therefore corresponded to naive B cells. In nodular/interstitial infiltration, the cells were CD27+ and therefore corresponded to memory B cells. No difference in immunohistochemical expression of B and T antibodies was found between intrasinusoidal and interstitial/nodular infiltration. CD27 was constantly expressed in the splenic marginal zone of normal spleen, surgically removed for trauma, and in seven out of 10 spleens with SMZL. Conclusion: We propose the existence of two different phases of neoplastic progression with, first, expansion of a virgin B clone in the bone marrow and, following exposure to antigen, a re-colonization of the bone marrow

Prevalence and Factors Associated with Intestinal Parasitic Infection among Children in an Urban Slum of Karachi

Background:Intestinal parasitic infections are endemic worldwide and have been described as constituting the greatest single worldwide cause of illness and disease. Poverty, illiteracy, poor hygiene, lack of access to potable water and hot and humid tropical climate are the factors associated with intestinal parasitic infections. The study aimed to estimate prevalence and identify factors associated with intestinal parasitic infections among 1 to 5 years old children residing in an urban slum of Karachi Pakistan. Methods And PrincipalFindings:A cross sectional survey was conducted from February to June 2006 in Ghosia Colony Gulshan Town Karachi, Pakistan. A simple random sample of 350 children aged 1-5 years was collected. The study used structured pre-tested questionnaire, anthropometric tools and stool tests to obtain epidemiological and disease data. Data were analyzed using appropriate descriptive, univariate and multivariable logistic regression methods. The mean age of participants was 2.8 years and 53% were male. The proportions of wasted, stunted and underweight children were 10.4%, 58.9% and 32.7% respectively. The prevalence of Intestinal parasitic infections was estimated to be 52.8% (95% CI: 46.1, 59.4). Giardia lamblia was the most common parasite followed by Ascaris lumbricoides, Blastocystis hominis and Hymenolepis nana. About 43% children were infected with single parasite and 10% with multiple parasites. Age {Adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1, 1.9}, living in rented households (aOR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.0, 3.9) and history of excessive crying (aOR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.0, 3.4) were significantly associated with intestinal parasitic infections.Conclusion:Intestinal parasites are highly prevalent in this setting and poverty was implicated as an important risk factor for infection. Effective poverty reduction programmes and promotion of deworming could reduce intestinal parasite carriage. There is a need for mass scale campaigns to create awareness about health and hygiene

Contrast Enhanced Micro-Computed Tomography Resolves the 3-Dimensional Morphology of the Cardiac Conduction System in Mammalian Hearts

The general anatomy of the cardiac conduction system (CCS) has been known for 100 years, but its complex and irregular three-dimensional (3D) geometry is not so well understood. This is largely because the conducting tissue is not distinct from the surrounding tissue by dissection. The best descriptions of its anatomy come from studies based on serial sectioning of samples taken from the appropriate areas of the heart. Low X-ray attenuation has formerly ruled out micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) as a modality to resolve internal structures of soft tissue, but incorporation of iodine, which has a high molecular weight, into those tissues enhances the differential attenuation of X-rays and allows visualisation of fine detail in embryos and skeletal muscle. Here, with the use of a iodine based contrast agent (I2KI), we present contrast enhanced micro-CT images of cardiac tissue from rat and rabbit in which the three major subdivisions of the CCS can be differentiated from the surrounding contractile myocardium and visualised in 3D. Structures identified include the sinoatrial node (SAN) and the atrioventricular conduction axis: the penetrating bundle, His bundle, the bundle branches and the Purkinje network. Although the current findings are consistent with existing anatomical representations, the representations shown here offer superior resolution and are the first 3D representations of the CCS within a single intact mammalian heart

Rapidity and Centrality Dependence of Proton and Anti-proton Production from Au+Au Collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 130GeV

We report on the rapidity and centrality dependence of proton and anti-proton transverse mass distributions from Au+Au collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 130GeV as measured by the STAR experiment at RHIC. Our results are from the rapidity and transverse momentum range of |y|<0.5 and 0.35 <p_t<1.00GeV/c. For both protons and anti-protons, transverse mass distributions become more convex from peripheral to central collisions demonstrating characteristics of collective expansion. The measured rapidity distributions and the mean transverse momenta versus rapidity are flat within |y|<0.5. Comparisons of our data with results from model calculations indicate that in order to obtain a consistent picture of the proton(anti-proton) yields and transverse mass distributions the possibility of pre-hadronic collective expansion may have to be taken into account.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, submitted to PR