114 research outputs found

    Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems

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    The stratosphere can be a source of predictability for surface weather on timescales of several weeks to months. However, the potential predictive skill gained from stratospheric variability can be limited by biases in the representation of stratospheric processes and the coupling of the stratosphere with surface climate in forecast systems. This study provides a first systematic identification of model biases in the stratosphere across a wide range of subseasonal forecast systems. It is found that many of the forecast systems considered exhibit warm global-mean temperature biases from the lower to middle stratosphere, too strong/cold wintertime polar vortices, and too cold extratropical upper-troposphere/lowerstratosphere regions. Furthermore, tropical stratospheric anomalies associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation tend to decay toward each system¿s climatology with lead time. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), most systems do not capture the seasonal cycle of extreme-vortex-event probabilities, with an underestimation of sudden stratospheric warming events and an overestimation of strong vortex events in January. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), springtime interannual variability in the polar vortex is generally underestimated, but the timing of the final breakdown of the polar vortex often happens too early in many of the prediction systems. These stratospheric biases tend to be considerably worse in systems with lower model lid heights. In both hemispheres, most systems with low-top atmospheric models also consistently underestimate the upward wave driving that affects the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. We expect that the biases identified here will help guide model development for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast systems and further our understanding of the role of the stratosphere in predictive skill in the troposphere.This work uses S2S Project data. S2S is a joint initiative of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). This work was initiated by the Stratospheric Network for the Assessment of Predictability (SNAP), a joint activity of SPARC (WCRP) and the S2S Project (WWRP–WCRP). The work of Rachel W.-Y. Wu is funded through ETH grant ETH-05 19-1. Support from the Swiss National Science Foundation through projects PP00P2_170523 and PP00P2_198896 to Daniela I. V. Domeisen is gratefully acknowledged. Chaim I. Garfinkel and Chen Schwartz are supported by the ISF–NSFC joint research program (grant no. 3259/19). The work of Marisol Osman was supported by UBACyT20020170100428BA and PICT-2018-03046 projects. The work of Alvaro de la Cámara is funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through project PID2019-109107GB-I00. Blanca Ayarzagüena and Natalia Calvo acknowledge the support of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the JeDiS (RTI2018-096402-B-I00) project. Froila M. Palmeiro and Javier García-Serrano have been partially supported by the Spanish ATLANTE project (PID2019-110234RB-C21) and Ramón y Cajal program (RYC-2016-21181), respectively. Neil P. Hindley and Corwin J. Wright are supported by UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), grant number NE/S00985X/1. Corwin J. Wright is also supported by a Royal Society University Research Fellowship UF160545. Seok-Woo Son and Hera Kim are supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (2017R1E1A1A01074889). This material is based upon work supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling program under award no. DE-SC0022070 and National Science Foundation (NSF) IA 1947282. This work was also supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under cooperative agreement no. 1852977. Pu Lin is supported by award NA18OAR4320123 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce. Zachary D. Lawrence was partially supported under NOAA award NA20NWS4680051; Zachary D. Lawrence and Judith Perlwitz also acknowledge support from US federally appropriated funds

    Search for single top quarks in the tau+jets channel using 4.8 fb1^{-1} of ppˉp\bar{p} collision data

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    We present the first direct search for single top quark production using tau leptons. The search is based on 4.8 fb1^{-1} of integrated luminosity collected in ppˉp\bar{p} collisions at s\sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We select events with a final state including an isolated tau lepton, missing transverse energy, two or three jets, one or two of them bb tagged. We use a multivariate technique to discriminate signal from background. The number of events observed in data in this final state is consistent with the signal plus background expectation. We set in the tau+jets channel an upper limit on the single top quark cross section of \TauLimObs pb at the 95% C.L. This measurement allows a gain of 4% in expected sensitivity for the observation of single top production when combining it with electron+jets and muon+jets channels already published by the D0 collaboration with 2.3 fb1^{-1} of data. We measure a combined cross section of \SuperCombineXSall pb, which is the most precise measurement to date.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figure

    Measurement of Z/gamma*+jet+X angular distributions in ppbar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV

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    We present the first measurements at a hadron collider of differential cross sections for Z+jet+X production in delta phi(Z, jet), |delta y(Z, jet)| and |y_boost(Z, jet)|. Vector boson production in association with jets is an excellent probe of QCD and constitutes the main background to many small cross section processes, such as associated Higgs production. These measurements are crucial tests of the predictions of perturbative QCD and current event generators, which have varied success in describing the data. Using these measurements as inputs in tuning event generators will increase the experimental sensitivity to rare signals.Comment: Published in Physics Letters B 682 (2010), pp. 370-380. 15 pages, 6 figure

    Search for the standard model Higgs boson in tau final states

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    We present a search for the standard model Higgs boson using hadronically decaying tau leptons, in 1 inverse femtobarn of data collected with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron ppbar collider. We select two final states: tau plus missing transverse energy and b jets, and tau+ tau- plus jets. These final states are sensitive to a combination of associated W/Z boson plus Higgs boson, vector boson fusion and gluon-gluon fusion production processes. The observed ratio of the combined limit on the Higgs production cross section at the 95% C.L. to the standard model expectation is 29 for a Higgs boson mass of 115 GeV.Comment: publication versio

    Search for a scalar or vector particle decaying into Zgamma in ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV

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    We present a search for a narrow scalar or vector resonance decaying into Zgamma with a subsequent Z decay into a pair of electrons or muons. The data for this search were collected with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron ppbar collider at a center of mass energy sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV. Using 1.1 (1.0) fb-1 of data, we observe 49 (50) candidate events in the electron (muon) channel, in good agreement with the standard model prediction. From the combination of both channels, we derive 95% C.L. upper limits on the cross section times branching fraction (sigma x B) into Zgamma. These limits range from 0.19 (0.20) pb for a scalar (vector) resonance mass of 600 GeV/c^2 to 2.5 (3.1) pb for a mass of 140 GeV/c^2.Comment: Published by Phys. Lett.

    Search for the associated production of a b quark and a neutral supersymmetric Higgs boson which decays to tau pairs

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    We report results from a search for production of a neutral Higgs boson in association with a bb quark. We search for Higgs decays to τ\tau pairs with one τ\tau subsequently decaying to a muon and the other to hadrons. The data correspond to 2.7fb1^{-1} of \ppbar collisions recorded by the D0 detector at s=1.96\sqrt{s} = 1.96TeV. The data are found to be consistent with background predictions. The result allows us to exclude a significant region of parameter space of the minimal supersymmetric model.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev. Letter

    Search for charged Higgs bosons in top quark decays

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    We present a search for charged Higgs bosons in top quark decays. We analyze the \eplus, \muplus, eeee, eμe\mu, μμ\mu\mu, \etau and \mutau final states from top quark pair production events, using data from about 1fb1{\text{fb}}^{-1} of integrated luminosity recorded by the \dzero experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We consider different scenarios of possible charged Higgs boson decays, one where the charged Higgs boson decays purely hadronically into a charm and a strange quark, another where it decays into a τ\tau lepton and a τ\tau neutrino and a third one where both decays appear. We extract limits on the branching ratio B(tH+b)B(t\to H^+ b) for all these models. We use two methods, one where the ttˉt\bar{t} production cross section is fixed, and one where the cross section is fitted simultaneously with B(tH+b)B(t\to H^+b). Based on the extracted limits, we exclude regions in the charged Higgs boson mass and tanβ\tan \beta parameter space for different scenarios of the minimal supersymmetric standard model.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, submitted to PL

    Measurement of the differential cross section for the production of an isolated photon with associated jet in ppbar collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV

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    The process ppbar -> photon + jet + X is studied using 1.0 fb^-1 of data collected by the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron ppbar collider at a center-of-mass energy sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV. Photons are reconstructed in the central rapidity region |y_gamma|<1.0 with transverse momenta in the range 30<Pt_gamma<400 GeV while jets are reconstructed in either the central |y_jet|15 GeV. The differential cross section d^3sigma/dPt_gamma dy_gamma dy_jet is measured as a function of Pt_gamma in four regions, differing by the relative orientations of the photon and the jet in rapidity. Ratios between the differential cross sections in each region are also presented. Next-to-leading order QCD predictions using different parameterizations of parton distribution functions and theoretical scale choices are compared to the data. The predictions do not simultaneously describe the measured normalization and Pt_gamma dependence of the cross section in any of the four measured regions.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figure

    Measurement of the ratio of the ppˉWp\bar{p}\to W+cc-jet cross section to the inclusive ppˉWp\bar{p}\to W+jets cross section

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    We present a measurement of the fraction of inclusive WW+jets events produced with net charm quantum number ±1\pm1, denoted WW+cc-jet, in ppˉp\bar{p} collisions at s=1.96\sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV using approximately 1~fb1^{-1} of data collected by the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We identify the WW+jets events via the leptonic WW boson decays. Candidate WW+cc-jet events are selected by requiring a jet containing a muon in association with a reconstructed WW boson and exploiting the charge correlation between this muon and WW boson decay lepton to perform a nearly model-independent background subtraction. We measure the fraction of WW+cc-jet events in the inclusive WW+jets sample for jet pT>20p_{T}>20 GeV and pseudorapidity η<2.5|\eta|<2.5 to be 0.074±0.019\pm0.019(stat.)±0.0140.012\pm^{0.012}_{0.014}(syst.), in agreement with theoretical predictions. The probability that background fluctuations could produce the observed fraction of WW+cc-jet events is estimated to be 2.5×1042.5\times 10^{-4}, which corresponds to a 3.5 σ\sigma statistical significance.Comment: submitted to Physics Letters
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