Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment: the users’ perspective

Integrated Assessment (IA) models aim at providing information- and decision-support to complex problems. This paper argues that uncertainty analysis in IA models should be user-driven in order to strengthen science–policy interaction. We suggest an approach to uncertainty analysis that starts with investigating model users’ demands for uncertainty information. These demands are called “uncertainty information needs”. Identifying model users’ uncertainty information needs allows focusing the analysis on those uncertainties which users consider relevant and meaningful. As an illustrative example, we discuss the case of examining users’ uncertainty information needs in the SEAMLESS Integrated Framework (SEAMLESS-IF), an IA model chain for assessing and comparing alternative agricultural and environmental policy options. The most important user group of SEAMLESS-IF are policy experts at the European and national level. Uncertainty information needs of this user group were examined in an interactive process during the development of SEAMLESS-IF and by using a questionnaire. Results indicate that users’ information requirements differed from the uncertainty categories considered most relevant by model developers. In particular, policy experts called for addressing a broader set of uncertainty sources (e.g. model structure and technical model setup). The findings highlight that investigating users’ uncertainty information needs is an essential step towards creating confidence in an IA model and its outcomes. This alone, however, may not be sufficient for effectively implementing a user-oriented uncertainty analysis in such models. As the case study illustrates, it requires to include uncertainty analysis into user participation from the outset of the IA modelling process

Exposure to animals and risk of oligoarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a multicenter case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>An inverse association between early contact with microbial compounds and respiratory allergies is well established. The protective effect of infant contact with animals was also shown for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We aimed to test the association between animal contact in infancy and oligoarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis (OA JIA).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Parents of children with OA JIA registered at the Hospital for Pediatric Rheumatology in Garmisch-Partenkirchen were asked to complete a questionnaire. Children who underwent strabismus surgery at six referral centers for ophthalmology served as controls. Children age 6 to 18 years born in Germany without malformations were included (238 cases; response 89% and 832 controls; response 86%). Data were analyzed using logistic regression models after adjusting for potential confounders.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Neither place of living (urban vs. rural area), living on a farm, nor regular farm animal (adjusted odds ratio 0.79; 95% confidence interval 0.42-1.47) or pet contact (0.79; 0.55-1.14) during infancy were clearly related to case status. Allergic rhinitis was inversely related to OA JIA (0.57; 0.34-0.95).</p> <p>Neither place of living (urban vs. rural area), living on a farm, nor regular farm animal (adjusted odds ratio 0.79; 95% confidence interval 0.42-1.47) or pet contact (0.79; 0.55-1.14) during infancy were related to case status. Allergic rhinitis was inversely related to OA JIA (0.57; 0.34-0.95).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Contact with farm environments in infancy might not be associated with OA JIA. This finding is consistent with previous findings for diabetes mellitus type 1 but contradicts results for IBD and SLE.</p

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

New insights into family relationships within the avian superfamily Sylvioidea (Passeriformes) based on seven molecular markers

BACKGROUND: The circumscription of the avian superfamily Sylvioidea is a matter of long ongoing debate. While the overall inclusiveness has now been mostly agreed on and 20 families recognised, the phylogenetic relationships among the families are largely unknown. We here present a phylogenetic hypothesis for Sylvioidea based on one mitochondrial and six nuclear markers, in total ~6.3 kbp, for 79 ingroup species representing all currently recognised families and some species with uncertain affinities, making this the most comprehensive analysis of this taxon.  RESULTS: The resolution, especially of the deeper nodes, is much improved compared to previous studies. However, many relationships among families remain uncertain and are in need of verification. Most families themselves are very well supported based on the total data set and also by indels. Our data do not support the inclusion of Hylia in Cettiidae, but do not strongly reject a close relationship with Cettiidae either. The genera Scotocerca and Erythrocercus are closely related to Cettiidae, but separated by relatively long internodes. The families Paridae, Remizidae and Stenostiridae clustered among the outgroup taxa and not within Sylvioidea.  CONCLUSIONS: Although the phylogenetic position of Hylia is uncertain, we tentatively support the recognition of the family Hyliidae Bannerman, 1923 for this genus and Pholidornis. We propose new family names for the genera Scotocerca and Erythrocercus, Scotocercidae and Erythrocercidae, respectively, rather than including these in Cettiidae, and we formally propose the name Macrosphenidae, which has been in informal use for some time. We recommend that Paridae, Remizidae and Stenostiridae are not included in Sylvioidea. We also briefly discuss the problems of providing a morphological diagnosis when proposing a new family-group name (or genus-group name) based on a clade

Multilocus analysis of a taxonomically densely sampled dataset reveal extensive non-monophyly in the avian family Locustellidae

The phylogeny of most of the species in the avian passerine family Locustellidae is inferred using a Bayesian species tree approach (Bayesian Estimation of Species Trees, BEST), as well as a traditional Bayesian gene tree method (MrBayes), based on a dataset comprising one mitochondrial and four nuclear loci. The trees inferred by the different methods agree fairly well in topology, although in a few cases there are marked differences. Some of these discrepancies might be due to convergence problems for BEST (despite up to 1 × 109 iterations). The phylogeny strongly disagrees with the current taxonomy at the generic level, and we propose a revised classification that recognizes four instead of seven genera. These results emphasize the well known but still often neglected problem of basing classifications on non-cladistic evaluations of morphological characters. An analysis of an extended mitochondrial dataset with multiple individuals from most species, including many subspecies, suggest that several taxa presently treated as subspecies or as monotypic species as well as a few taxa recognized as separate species are in need of further taxonomic work

MR-PROTECT : Clinical feasibility of a prostate MRI-only radiotherapy treatment workflow and investigation of acceptance criteria

Background: Retrospective studies on MRI-only radiotherapy have been presented. Widespread clinical implementations of MRI-only workflows are however limited by the absence of guidelines. The MR-PROTECT trial presents an MRI-only radiotherapy workflow for prostate cancer using a new single sequence strategy. The workflow incorporated the commercial synthetic CT (sCT) generation software MriPlanner™ (Spectronic Medical, Helsingborg, Sweden). Feasibility of the workflow and limits for acceptance criteria were investigated for the suggested workflow with the aim to facilitate future clinical implementations. Methods: An MRI-only workflow including imaging, post imaging tasks, treatment plan creation, quality assurance and treatment delivery was created with questionnaires. All tasks were performed in a single MR-sequence geometry, eliminating image registrations. Prospective CT-quality assurance (QA) was performed prior treatment comparing the PTV mean dose between sCT and CT dose-distributions. Retrospective analysis of the MRI-only gold fiducial marker (GFM) identification, DVH- analysis, gamma evaluation and patient set-up verification using GFMs and cone beam CT were performed. Results: An MRI-only treatment was delivered to 39 out of 40 patients. The excluded patient was too large for the predefined imaging field-of-view. All tasks could successfully be performed for the treated patients. There was a maximum deviation of 1.2% in PTV mean dose was seen in the prospective CT-QA. Retrospective analysis showed a maximum deviation below 2% in the DVH-analysis after correction for rectal gas and gamma pass-rates above 98%. MRI-only patient set-up deviation was below 2 mm for all but one investigated case and a maximum of 2.2 mm deviation in the GFM-identification compared to CT. Conclusions: The MR-PROTECT trial shows the feasibility of an MRI-only prostate radiotherapy workflow. A major advantage with the presented workflow is the incorporation of a sCT-generation method with multi-vendor capability. The presented single sequence approach are easily adapted by other clinics and the general implementation procedure can be replicated. The dose deviation and the gamma pass-rate acceptance criteria earlier suggested was achievable, and these limits can thereby be confirmed. GFM-identification acceptance criteria are depending on the choice of identification method and slice thickness. Patient positioning strategies needs further investigations to establish acceptance criteria

Target definition in radiotherapy of prostate cancer using magnetic resonance imaging only workflow

In magnetic resonance (MR) only radiotherapy, the target delineation needs to be performed without computed tomography (CT). We investigated in thirteenpatients with prostate cancer, how the clinical target volume (CTV) was affected, when the target delineation procedure was changed from using both CT and MRimages to using MR images only. The mean volume of the CTVCT/MR was 61.0 cm3 as compared to 49.9 cm3 from MR-only based target delineation, corresponding toan average decrease of 18%. Our results show that CTVMR-only was consistently smaller than CTVCT/MR, which has to be taken into consideration before clinicalcommissioning of MR-only radiotherapy

Not so Intimate Instagram : Images of Swedish Political Party Leaders in the 2018 National Election Campaign

The visual components of political communication are closely related tothe ongoing personalization of politics. Not only do the media focus theirstories on candidates and leaders, but also the parties’own work with theelectoral campaigns and political propaganda have an increasing focus onthe individual candidates and leaders. This study focuses on how politicalparty leaders chose to use visual images in their self-presentation onInstagram during the 2018 general election in Sweden. This is donethrough a quantitative content analysis of party leaders’posts during thelast three weeks before Election Day.The results do not confirm an increasing level of personalization of politics.Party leaders were visually exposed in an innovative way, but still mainlywithin rather predictable campaign contexts. General social media standardshave been developed by political parties also on this platform. When applyingto these standards branding and long-term party strategy considerationsseem to be more important than possible short-term effects of exposing sur-prising personal and emotional characteristics of the party leader