Recent trends in the timing of the growing season in New Zealand’s natural and semi-natural grasslands

We investigate the temporal dynamics of shifts in phenological responses of a range of key stages of the growing season in New Zealand’s three indigenous grassland types over the last 16 years (2001–2016). A near-daily Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to extract five annual growth phenology indices, namely the Start, End, Length, Peak and Peak NDVI of a growing season. The start of the growing season advanced (i.e. happened earlier) by a median of 7.2, 6.0 and 8.8 days per decade in Alpine, Tall Tussock and Low Producing grassland, whereas the end of the season advanced by a median of 4.5, 0.4 and 0.4 days in the three types respectively. The length of growing season was extended by 3.2, 5.2 and 7.1 days per decade in these three grassland types. Over 86% of the investigated grassland areas showed an advancing (earlier) start of the growing season, and 74% of Alpine grassland showed a trend toward an earlier end of season. Over 63% of all grassland types showed an increase in growing season length. A trend toward earlier growing season peak and overall increasing NDVI in the three grassland types indicate a tendency for increasing vegetation vitality in grassland ecosystems in recent years. The start of growing season was correlated with atmospheric pressure (negatively) and precipitation (positively) changes in winter–spring months, while the timing of the season end is positively correlated with air temperature and solar radiation in summer–autumn months. Our study shows that different grassland types differ in magnitude–but not in direction–of their recent shifts in timing of key growing season stages with high-alpine grasslands showing the strongest response. This study highlights the usefulness of remote sensing for monitoring ecosystem-level phenological shifts over large areas and long time periods

Global biome patterns of the Middle and Late Pleistocene

Our primary aim was to assess the hypothesis that distinctive features of the patterns of vegetation change during successive Quaternary glacial–interglacial cycles reflect climatic differences arising from forcing differences. We addressed this hypothesis using 207 half-degree resolution global biome pattern simulations, for time slices between 800 and 2 ka, made using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic global vegetation model. Simulations were driven using ice-core atmospheric CO2 concentrations, Earth's obliquity, and outputs from a pre-industrial and 206 palaeoclimate experiments; four additional simulations were driven using projected future CO2 concentrations. Climate experiments were run using HadCM3. Using a rule-based approach, above-ground biomass and leaf area index of LPJ-GUESS plant functional types were used to infer each grid cell's biome. The hypothesis is supported by the palaeobiome simulations. To enable comparisons with the climatic forcing, multivariate analyses were performed of global vegetation pattern dissimilarities between simulations. Results showed generally similar responses to glacial–interglacial climatic variations during each cycle, although no two interglacials or glacials had identical biome patterns. Atmospheric CO2 concentration was the strongest driver of the dissimilarity patterns. Dissimilarities relative to the time slice with the lowest atmospheric CO2 concentration show the log-linear relationship to atmospheric CO2 concentration expected of an index of ecocarbon sensitivity. For each simulation, extent and total above-ground biomass of each biome were calculated globally and for three longitudinal segments corresponding to the major continental regions. Mean and minimum past extents of forest biomes, notably Temperate Summergreen Forest, in the three major continental regions strongly parallel relative tree diversities, hence supporting the hypothesis that past biome extents played an important role in determining present diversity. Albeit that they reflect the climatic consequences only of the faster Earth system components, simulated potential future biome patterns are unlike any during the past 800 ky, and likely will continue to change markedly for millennia if projected CO2 concentrations are realised

Cork oak and climate change: disentangling drought effects on cork chemical composition

Climate change induces in the Mediterranean region more frequent and extreme events, namely, heat waves and droughts, disturbing forest species and affecting their productivity and product quality. The cork oak (Quercus suber) is present along the western Mediterranean basin and its outer bark (cork) is sustainably collected and used for several products, mainly wine bottle stoppers. Since most cork properties arise from its chemical composition, this research studies the effect of drought on cork chemical composition (suberin, lignin, polysaccharides and extractives) and on polysaccharide and suberin monomeric composition. Three sets of cork samples, from the same site, were examined: in one set the cork grew without drought; in another two drought events occurred during cork growth and in the third one drought event happened. The results show that, in general, drought does not affect the proportion of the main components of cork, the monomers of suberin or of polysaccharides, with few exceptions e.g. drought increased ethanol extractives and xylose in polysaccharides and decreased arabinose in polysaccharides. The variability associated to the tree is much more relevant than the effect of drought conditions and affects all the parameters analyzed. Therefore, our research suggests that the tree genetic information, or its expression, plays a much more important role on the chemical composition of cork than the drought conditions occurring during cork growth. In practical terms, the potential increased occurrence of droughts arising from climatic changes will not compromise the performance of cork as a sealant for wine bottlesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Ethnomedicinal plant knowledge and practice of the Oromo ethnic group in southwestern Ethiopia

An ethnomedicinal study was conducted to document the indigenous medicinal plant knowledge and use by traditional healers in southwestern Ethiopia from December 2005 to November 2006. Data were collected from 45 randomly selected traditional healers using semi-structured interviews and observations. Sixty-seven ethnomedicinal plant species used by traditional healers to manage 51 different human ailments were identified and documented. Healers' indigenous knowledge was positively correlated with their reported age but not with their educational level. High degree of consensus was observed among traditional healers in treating tumor (locally known as Tanacha), rabies (Dhukuba Seree) and insect bite (Hadhaa). The use of more than one species was significantly cited for remedy preparations. The reported abundance of the ethnomedicinal plant species varied significantly with respect to the presence of multiple uses of the reported species. Our results showed that ethnomedicinal plant species used by healers are under serious threat due to several factors, which indicates the need for urgent attention towards their conservation and sustainable utilization

Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change

Climate Change Hastens the Conservation Urgency of an Endangered Ungulate

Global climate change appears to be one of the main threats to biodiversity in the near future and is already affecting the distribution of many species. Currently threatened species are a special concern while the extent to which they are sensitive to climate change remains uncertain. Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) is classified as endangered and a conservation focus on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Using measures of species range shift, we explored how the distribution of Przewalski's gazelle may be impacted by projected climate change based on a maximum entropy approach. We also evaluated the uncertainty in the projections of the risks arising from climate change. Modeling predicted the Przewalski's gazelle would be sensitive to future climate change. As the time horizon increased, the strength of effects from climate change increased. Even assuming unlimited dispersal capacity of gazelles, a moderate decrease to complete loss of range was projected by 2080 under different thresholds for transforming the probability prediction to presence/absence data. Current localities of gazelles will undergo a decrease in their occurrence probability. Projections of the impacts of climate change were significantly affected by thresholds and general circulation models. This study suggests climate change clearly poses a severe threat and increases the extinction risk to Przewalski's gazelle. Our findings 1) confirm that endangered endemic species is highly vulnerable to climate change and 2) highlight the fact that forecasting impacts of climate change needs an assessment of the uncertainty. It is extremely important that conservation strategies consider the predicted geographical shifts and be planned with full knowledge of the reliability of projected impacts of climate change

How climatic variability is linked to the spatial distribution of range sizes: seasonality versus climate change velocity in sphingid moths

Aim: To map the spatial variation of range sizes within sphingid moths, and to test hypotheses on its environmental control. In particular, we investigate effects of climate change velocity since the Pleistocene and the mid-Holocene, temperature and precipitation seasonality, topography, Pleistocene ice cover, and available land area. Location: Old World and Australasia, excluding smaller islands. Methods: We used fine-grained range maps (based on expert-edited distribution modelling) for all 972 sphingid moth species in the research region and calculated, at a grain size of 100 km, the median of range sizes of all species that co-occur in a pixel. Climate, topography and Pleistocene ice cover data were taken from publicly available sources. We calculated climate change velocities (CCV) for the last 21ky as well as 6ky. We compared the effects of seasonality and CCV on median range sizes with spatially explicit models while accounting for effects of elevation range, glaciation history and available land area. Results: Range sizes show a clear spatial pattern, with highest median values in deserts and arctic regions and lowest values in isolated tropical regions. Range sizes were only weakly related to absolute latitude (predicted by Rapoport’s effect), but there was a strong north-south pattern of range size decline. Temperature seasonality emerged as the strongest environmental correlate of median range size, in univariate as well as multivariate models, whereas effects of CCV were weak and unstable for both time periods. These results were robust to variations in the parameters in alternative analyses, among them multivariate CCV. Main conclusions: Temperature seasonality is a strong correlate of spatial range size variation, while effects of longer-term temperature change, as captured by CCV, received much weaker support.The attached document is the author(’s’) final accepted/submitted version of the journal article. You are advised to consult the publisher’s version if you wish to cite from i

Climate vs. topography – spatial patterns of plant species diversity and endemism on a high-elevation island

Climate and topography are among the most fundamental drivers of plant diversity. Here, we assessed the importance of climate and topography in explaining diversity patterns of species richness, endemic richness and endemicity on the landscape scale of an oceanic island and evaluated the independent contribution of climatic and topographic variables to spatial diversity patterns. 2. We constructed a presence/absence matrix of perennial endemic and native vascular plant species (including subspecies) in 890 plots on the environmentally very heterogeneous island of La Palma, Canary Islands. Species richness, endemic richness and endemicity were recorded, interpolated and related to climate (i.e. variables describing temperature, precipitation, variability and climatic rarity) and topography (i.e. topographic complexity, solar radiation, geologic age, slope and aspect). We used multimodel inference, spatial autoregressive models, variance partitioning and linear regression kriging as statistical methods. 3. Species richness is best explained by both climatic and topographic variables. Topographic variables (esp. topographic complexity and solar radiation) explain endemic richness, and climatic variables (esp. elevation/temperature and rainfall seasonality) explain endemicity. Spatial patterns of species richness, endemic richness and endemicity were in part geographically decoupled from each other. 4. Synthesis. We identified several topography-dependent processes ranging from evolutionary processes (micro-refugia, in situ speciation, pre-adaptation to rupicolous conditions, dispersal limitations) to human-induced influences (introduced herbivores, fire, land use) that possibly shape the endemic richness pattern of La Palma. In contrast, climate mainly drives endemicity, which is connected to ecological speciation and specialization to local conditions. We highlight the importance of incorporating climatic variability into future studies of plant species diversity and endemism. The spatial incongruence in hot spots of species richness, endemic richness and endemicity emphasizes the need for an integrated conservation approach acknowledging different diversity measures to protect the complete spectrum of diversity. High-elevation islands such as La Palma are highly suitable to study drivers of diversity and endemism, as they offer environmental gradients of continental magnitude on the landscape scale of a single climatic mini-continent and a large array of in situspeciated endemics

Vehicular tracks and the influence of land use and habitat protection in the British uplands

Uplands cover around 25% of the Earth's land surface and comprise highly sensitive soils and habitats of global ecological importance that together provision a suite of valuable ecosystem services. Access to upland areas for land management and recreation is increasingly dependent on the use of motorised vehicles. However, despite the widely acknowledged detrimental consequences of vehicle track development and use, this activity is not currently quantified or monitored. In this study, surfaced and unsurfaced vehicular tracks, footpaths and land cover in an approximately 5% sample of mainland British uplands (1910 km2) were mapped using aerial imagery dating between 2007 and 2016. An information theory approach was used to identify models that best predicted the presence and extent of surfaced tracks as a function of land cover, protected status, extent of blanket peat, proximity to human population and altitude. A total of 2104 km of track were recorded, with 27% defined as being surfaced. This equates to a mean (±SE) track density of 1.10 ± 0.15 km km−2 in current use by vehicles across upland Britain. Areas of managed heather and grass-dominated habitat were the primary predictors of the presence and extent of surfaced tracks and we found no evidence that areas of conservation interest with protective designation were less susceptible to track construction. These data indicate that wide-ranging vehicular track networks exist in ecologically sensitive environments across the British uplands, with implications for the integrity of sensitive habitats and soils. Land use and management activities that are not facilitating ecological improvement or conservation appear to be driving the presence of surfaced tracks in 'protected' areas. The findings suggest that: a) urgent review and revision of upland track legislation is required in Great Britain; and b) wider assessment of upland tracks should be undertaken to inform global conservation strategies for these environments