Overview: Getting a More Balanced View of What is Working in Agriculture to Reduce Hunger

This article suggests that to understand better what is working in agriculture in order to reduce hunger, a strengthening and transformation of monitoring and evaluation (M&E) in agricultural research and development is needed. It presents the Agricultural Learning and Impacts Network (ALINe) as the initiative that has commissioned this IDS Bulletin , reflecting aspects of the current status and role of M&E, how it can be strengthened and ultimately transformed, and some of the reasons for why such change is possible. ALINe argues that asking farmers about their priorities, and what is and is not working and embedding this data into performance management systems is vital for improving accountability, value for money and the impact of agricultural development on people's lives. The article also introduces the other articles in this collection and commentaries on them by Southern practitioners and specialists

Stochastic market modeling with Gaussian Quadratures: Do rotations of Stroud's octahedron matter?

Recently, stochastic applications of large-scale applied simulation models of agricultural markets have become more frequent. However, stochastic modeling with large market models comes with high computational and management costs for data storage, analysis and manipulation. Gaussian Quadratures (GQ), are efficient sampling methods requiring few points to approximate the central moments of the joint probability distribution of stochastic variables and therefore reduce computational costs. For symmetric regions of integration, the vertices of Stroud's n-octahedron (Stroud, 1957) are GQ formulas of degree 3 with a minimal number of points which can make the stochastic modeling with large economic models manageable. However, we have the conjecture that rotations of Stroud's n-octahedron have an effect on the accuracy of approximation of model results; thus, we test eight different rotations using the European Simulation Model (ESIM). It was found that the 45° rotation yields higher accuracy than the 0° rotation. With the 45° rotation and in models with large regions or variables which strongly determine the outcome of model results such as soft wheat in ESIM, the arrangement of the stochastic variables (A1 or A2) in the covariance matrix or the selected method to introduce correlation (via the Cholesky decomposition –C– or via the diagonalization method –D–) may have a significant effect on the accuracy of the quadratures. With the 45° rotation and with markets where the effect of the different regions or variables on model outcomes are more homogenous as in the case of rapeseed in ESIM, the selection of the arrangements A1 or A2 and the method of introducing correlation C or D may not have a significant effect on the accuracy of the quadratures.Peer Reviewe

Assessing the cost of supplying water for agriculture: the food supply cost curve

This chapter illustrates in detail the concept of the FSCC, and what steps need to be taken to practically implement an FSCC-evaluation exercise. It concludes by commenting on some preliminary fndings obtained at the FAO when the FSCC had been employed in some NENA countries and for some crops

Getting real about food prices

The 2008 price spike in world grain prices had serious impacts on food security and poverty but analysts have consistently described these real food prices as low in historical terms. The inconsistency between the severity of the food crisis and low real prices results from the use of advanced and global economy price indices to calculate real prices. This ignores the high share of food in poor people’s expenditures and indirect effects of income growth on expenditure patterns of rich and poor consumers. Poor consumers have not experienced the same falls in real food prices as those with growing incomes and are more vulnerable to price shocks. As high and fluctuating international grain prices appear to be a feature of the current world economy, food price and policy analysis must recognise this, and develop and use different price indices that take account of differences between consumer groups

Multifunctionality of Agriculture Products: Towards Collaborative Policy Guidelines on Sustainable Agro-Related Fuel Development

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Biofuels on 23 January 2017, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17597269.2017.1278930.The primacy of food security overrides that of energy. This is a reasoned view under the United Nations rights-based theories and practice. Within this context, there are voluntary guidelines according to which countries must secure an adequate food supply. Nevertheless, agro-related fuel has recently attracted scientific and commercial attention, following revolutionary thinking concerning the multifunctionality nature of agriculture products and the innovative use of crop resources as conduits in building our energy security and promoting economic growth. Consequently, many countries may be facing the need for strategic decision-making in developing an agro-related fuel programme, given the lack of a credible global framework to inform policy approaches. On the back of this complexity, a key objective of this paper is to provide a critical assessment of whether a credible global collaborative framework can bring much-needed certainty to enable developing countries to weigh up the importance and risks involved and to manage all of the related biodiversity intricacies connected to agro-related policy development in relation to the realisation of sustainable food security.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Growth in densely populated Asia: implications for primary product exporters

Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section

Urban agriculture: a global analysis of the space constraint to meet urban vegetable demand

Urban agriculture (UA) has been drawing a lot of attention recently for several reasons: the majority of the world population has shifted from living in rural to urban areas; the environmental impact of agriculture is a matter of rising concern; and food insecurity, especially the accessibility of food, remains a major challenge. UA has often been proposed as a solution to some of these issues, for example by producing food in places where population density is highest, reducing transportation costs, connecting people directly to food systems and using urban areas efficiently. However, to date no study has examined how much food could actually be produced in urban areas at the global scale. Here we use a simple approach, based on different global-scale datasets, to assess to what extent UA is constrained by the existing amount of urban space. Our results suggest that UA would require roughly one third of the total global urban area to meet the global vegetable consumption of urban dwellers. This estimate does not consider how much urban area may actually be suitable and available for UA, which likely varies substantially around the world and according to the type of UA performed. Further, this global average value masks variations of more than two orders of magnitude among individual countries. The variations in the space required across countries derive mostly from variations in urban population density, and much less from variations in yields or per capita consumption. Overall, the space required is regrettably the highest where UA is most needed, i.e., in more food insecure countries. We also show that smaller urban clusters (i.e., <100 km2 each) together represent about two thirds of the global urban extent; thus UA discourse and policies should not focus on large cities exclusively, but should also target smaller urban areas that offer the greatest potential in terms of physical space

Anomaly or Augury? Global Food Prices Since 2007

This article reviews the dynamics of global food prices since the food crisis of2007–08, the extent to which international prices have influenced national prices and poverty and wellbeing outcomes, and considers whether this exceptional period represents an anomaly or likely signals future episodes of food price volatility. It finds that although some factors that contributed to recent events have eased considerably, some significant drivers remain structural threats to future food security. There is little reason to be confident that recent reductions in food prices and volatilities augur well for the food security or wellbeing of those living on low and precarious incomes in the future

Imperfect Competition, State Trading and Japan's Imports of Rice

In the negotiations on agriculture in the World Trade Organization, it was asserted that an importing state trading enterprise affects the domestic market but not the international market. This claim is investigated through specifying a model of intermediaries in international trade. There are two kinds of intermediaries: first, a state trading enterprise; and second, an n-firm Cournot oligopsony/oligopoly that acts as the counterfactual. Using Japanese market price and quantity data for rice, and elasticity parameters drawn from the literature, the equations of the model are calibrated to these data and parameters. The resulting equations then permit the calculation of the tariff equivalence of the state trading enterprise under different assumptions about market structure, as well as the welfare effects associated with them. The equations are re-specified to model the existing import regime for rice, which is a tariff quota. The conclusions are: first, that, compared with the counterfactual, an importing state trading enterprise acts like a tariff by restricting imports; and second, the current import regime of a tariff quota causes a welfare loss compared with the counterfactual