Should We Drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge? An Economic Perspective

This paper provides model-based estimates of the value of oil in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). The best estimate of economically recoverable oil in the federal portion of ANWR is 7.06 billion barrels of oil, a quantity roughly equal to US consumption in 2005. The oil is worth $374 billion ($2005), but would cost $123 billion to extract and bring to market. The difference,$251 billion, would generate social benefits through industry rents of $90 billion as well as state and federal tax revenues of$37 billion and $124 billion, respectively. A contribution of the paper is the decomposition of the benefits between industry rents and tax revenue for a range of price and quantity scenarios. But drilling and development in ANWR would also bring about environmental costs. These costs would consist largely of lost nonuse values for the protected status of ANWR's natural environment. Rather than estimate these costs and conduct a benefit-cost analysis, we calculate the costs that would generate a breakeven result. We find that the average breakeven willingness to accept compensation to allow drilling in ANWR ranges from$582 to $1,782 per person, with a mean estimate of$1,141.

Voluntary Public Goods Provision, Coalition Formation, and Uncertainty

The literature on voluntary provision of public goods includes recent theoretical work on the formation of voluntary coalitions to provide public goods. Theory is ambiguous on the equilibrium coalition size and contribution rates. We examine the emergence of coalitions, their size, and how uncertainty in public goods provision affects contribution levels and coalition size. We find that contributions decrease when public good returns are uncertain but increase when individuals can form a coalition to provide the good. Contrary a core theoretical result, we find that coalition size increases when the public good benefits are higher. Uncertainty has no effect on coalition size.

No sodium in the vapour plumes of Enceladus

The discovery of water vapour and ice particles erupting from Saturn's moon Enceladus fuelled speculation that an internal ocean was the source. Alternatively, the source might be ice warmed, melted or crushed by tectonic motions. Sodium chloride (that is, salt) is expected to be present in a long-lived ocean in contact with a rocky core. Here we report a ground-based spectroscopic search for atomic sodium near Enceladus that places an upper limit on the mixing ratio in the vapour plumes orders of magnitude below the expected ocean salinity. The low sodium content of escaping vapour, together with the small fraction of salt-bearing particles, argues against a situation in which a near-surface geyser is fuelled by a salty ocean through cracks in the crust. The lack of observable sodium in the vapour is consistent with a wide variety of alternative eruption sources, including a deep ocean6, a freshwater reservoir, or ice. The existing data may be insufficient to distinguish between these hypotheses

Healthy Firms: Constraints to Growth among Private Health Sector Facilities in Ghana and Kenya

Background: Health outcomes in developing countries continue to lag the developed world, and many countries are not on target to meet the Millennium Development Goals. The private health sector provides much of the care in many developing countries (e.g., approximately 50 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa), but private providers are often poorly integrated into the health system. Efforts to improve health systems performance will need to include the private sector and increase its contributions to national health goals. However, the literature on constraints private health care providers face is limited. Methodology/Principal Findings: We analyze data from a survey of private health facilities in Kenya and Ghana to evaluate growth constraints facing private providers. A significant portion of facilities (Ghana: 62 percent; Kenya: 40 percent) report limited access to finance as the most significant barrier they face; only a small minority of facilities report using formal credit institutions to finance day to day operations (Ghana: 6 percent; Kenya: 11 percent). Other important barriers include corruption, crime, limited demand for goods and services, and poor public infrastructure. Most facilities have paper-based rather than electronic systems for patient records (Ghana: 30 percent; Kenya: 22 percent), accounting (Ghana: 45 percent; Kenya: 27 percent), and inventory control (Ghana: 41 percent; Kenya: 24 percent). A majority of clinics in both countries report undertaking activities to improve provider skills and to monitor the level and quality of care they provide. However, only a minority of pharmacies report undertaking such activities

Private Sector Participation and Health System Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND: The role of the private health sector in developing countries remains a much-debated and contentious issue. Critics argue that the high prices charged in the private sector limits the use of health care among the poorest, consequently reducing access and equity in the use of health care. Supporters argue that increased private sector participation might improve access and equity by bringing in much needed resources for health care and by allowing governments to increase focus on underserved populations. However, little empirical exists for or against either side of this debate. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We examine the association between private sector participation and self-reported measures of utilization and equity in deliveries and treatment of childhood respiratory disease using regression analysis, across a sample of nationally-representative Demographic and Health Surveys from 34 SSA economies. We also examine the correlation between private sector participation and key background factors (socioeconomic development, business environment and governance) and use multivariate regression to control for potential confounders. Private sector participation is positively associated with greater overall access and reduced disparities between rich and poor as well as urban and rural populations. The positive association between private sector participation and improved health system performance is robust to controlling for confounders including per capita income and maternal education. Private sector participation is positively correlated with measures of socio-economic development and favorable business environment. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Greater participation is associated with favorable intermediate outcomes in terms of access and equity. While these results do not establish a causal link between private sector participation and health system performance, they suggest that there is no deleterious link between private sector participation and health system performance in SSA

A multi-decade record of high quality fCO2 data in version 3 of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT)

The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) is a synthesis of quality-controlled fCO2 (fugacity of carbon dioxide) values for the global surface oceans and coastal seas with regular updates. Version 3 of SOCAT has 14.7 million fCO2 values from 3646 data sets covering the years 1957 to 2014. This latest version has an additional 4.6 million fCO2 values relative to version 2 and extends the record from 2011 to 2014. Version 3 also significantly increases the data availability for 2005 to 2013. SOCAT has an average of approximately 1.2 million surface water fCO2 values per year for the years 2006 to 2012. Quality and documentation of the data has improved. A new feature is the data set quality control (QC) flag of E for data from alternative sensors and platforms. The accuracy of surface water fCO2 has been defined for all data set QC flags. Automated range checking has been carried out for all data sets during their upload into SOCAT. The upgrade of the interactive Data Set Viewer (previously known as the Cruise Data Viewer) allows better interrogation of the SOCAT data collection and rapid creation of high-quality figures for scientific presentations. Automated data upload has been launched for version 4 and will enable more frequent SOCAT releases in the future. High-profile scientific applications of SOCAT include quantification of the ocean sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and its long-term variation, detection of ocean acidification, as well as evaluation of coupled-climate and ocean-only biogeochemical models. Users of SOCAT data products are urged to acknowledge the contribution of data providers, as stated in the SOCAT Fair Data Use Statement. This ESSD (Earth System Science Data) “living data” publication documents the methods and data sets used for the assembly of this new version of the SOCAT data collection and compares these with those used for earlier versions of the data collection (Pfeil et al., 2013; Sabine et al., 2013; Bakker et al., 2014). Individual data set files, included in the synthesis product, can be downloaded here: doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.849770. The gridded products are available here: doi:10.3334/CDIAC/OTG.SOCAT_V3_GRID

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Development of real-time NASBA assays with molecular beacon detection to quantify mRNA coding for HHV-8 lytic and latent genes

BACKGROUND: Human herpesvirus-8 (HHV-8) is linked to the pathogenesis of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), and the HHV-8 DNA load in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) is associated with the clinical stage of KS. To examine the expression of HHV-8 in PBMC, four HHV-8 mRNA specific NASBA assays were developed METHODS: We have developed four quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification assays (NASBA-QT) specifically to detect mRNA coding for ORF 73 (latency-associated nuclear antigen, LANA), vGCR (a membrane receptor), vBcl-2 (a viral inhibitor of apoptosis) and vIL-6 (a viral growth factor). The NASBA technique amplifies nucleic acids without thermocycling and mRNA can be amplified in a dsDNA background. A molecular beacon is used during amplification to enable real-time detection of the product. The assays were tested on PBMC samples of two AIDS-KS patients from the Amsterdam Cohort. RESULTS: For all four assays, the limit of detection (LOD) of 50 molecules and the limit of quantification (LOQ) of 100 molecules were determined using in vitro transcribed RNA. The linear dynamic range was 50 to 10(7) molecules of HHV-8 mRNA. We found HHV-8 mRNA expression in 9 out of the 10 tested samples. CONCLUSION: These real-time NASBA assays with beacon detection provide tools for further study of HHV-8 expression in patient material

K13 blocks KSHV lytic replication and deregulates vIL6 nad hIL6 expression: A model of lytic replication induced clonal selection in viral oncogenesis

Background. Accumulating evidence suggests that dysregulated expression of lytic genes plays an important role in KSHV (Kaposi's sarcoma associated herpesvirus) tumorigenesis. However, the molecular events leading to the dysregulation of KSHV lytic gene expression program are incompletely understood. Methodoloxy/Principal Findings. We have studied the effect of KSHV-encoded latent protein vFLIP K13, a potent activator of the NF-κB pathway, on lytic reactivation of the virus. We demonstrate that K13 antagonizes RTA, the KSHV lytic-regulator, and effectively blocks the expression of lytic proteins, production of infectious virions and death of the infected cells. Induction of lytic replication selects for clones with increased K13 expression and NF-κB activity, while siRNA-mediated silencing of K13 induces the expression of lytic genes. However, the suppressive effect of K13 on RTA-induced lytic genes is not uniform and it falls to block RTA-induced viral IL6 secretion and cooperates with RTA to enhance cellular IL-6 production, thereby dysregulating the lytic gene expression program. Conclusions/Significance. Our results support a model in which ongoing KSHV, lytic replication selects for clones with progressively higher levels of K13 expression and NF-κB activity, which in turn drive KSHV tumorigenesis by not only directly stimulating cellular survival and proliferation, but also indirectly by dysregulating the viral lytic gene program and allowing non-lytic production of growth-promoting viral and cellular genes. Lytic Replication-Induced Clonal Selection (LyRICS) may represent a general mechanism in viral oncogenesis. 2007 Zhao et al