The role of caretakers in disease dynamics

One of the key challenges in modeling the dynamics of contagion phenomena is to understand how the structure of social interactions shapes the time course of a disease. Complex network theory has provided significant advances in this context. However, awareness of an epidemic in a population typically yields behavioral changes that correspond to changes in the network structure on which the disease evolves. This feedback mechanism has not been investigated in depth. For example, one would intuitively expect susceptible individuals to avoid other infecteds. However, doctors treating patients or parents tending sick children may also increase the amount of contact made with an infecteds, in an effort to speed up recovery but also exposing themselves to higher risks of infection. We study the role of these caretaker links in an adaptive network models where individuals react to a disease by increasing or decreasing the amount of contact they make with infected individuals. We find that pure avoidance, with only few caretaker links, is the best strategy for curtailing an SIS disease in networks that possess a large topological variability. In more homogeneous networks, disease prevalence is decreased for low concentrations of caretakers whereas a high prevalence emerges if caretaker concentration passes a well defined critical value.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figure

Hawking Temperature in Taub-NUT (A)dS spaces via the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

Using the extended forms of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle from string theory and the quantum gravity theory, we drived Hawking temperature of a Taub-Nut-(A)dS black hole. In spite of their distinctive natures such as asymptotically locally flat and breakdown of the area theorem of the horizon for the black holes, we show that the corrections to Hawking temperature by the generalized versions of the the Heisenberg uncertainty principle increases like the Schwarzschild-(A)dS black hole and give the reason why the Taub-Nut-(A)dS metric may have AdS/CFT dual picture.Comment: version published in General Relativity and Gravitatio

On Mason's rigidity theorem

Following an argument proposed by Mason, we prove that there are no algebraically special asymptotically simple vacuum space-times with a smooth, shear-free, geodesic congruence of principal null directions extending transversally to a cross-section of Scri. Our analysis leaves the door open for escaping this conclusion if the congruence is not smooth, or not transverse to Scri. One of the elements of the proof is a new rigidity theorem for the Trautman-Bondi mass.Comment: minor typos correcte

Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change

Dynamics affects the distribution and abundance of stratospheric ozone directly through transport of ozone itself and indirectly through its effect on ozone chemistry via temperature and transport of other chemical species. Dynamical processes must be considered in order to understand past ozone changes, especially in the northern hemisphere where there appears to be significant low-frequency variability which can look “trend-like” on decadal time scales. A major challenge is to quantify the predictable, or deterministic, component of past ozone changes. Over the coming century, changes in climate will affect the expected recovery of ozone. For policy reasons it is important to be able to distinguish and separately attribute the effects of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases on both ozone and climate. While the radiative-chemical effects can be relatively easily identified, this is not so evident for dynamics — yet dynamical changes (e.g., changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation) could have a first-order effect on ozone over particular regions. Understanding the predictability and robustness of such dynamical changes represents another major challenge. Chemistry-climate models have recently emerged as useful tools for addressing these questions, as they provide a self-consistent representation of dynamical aspects of climate and their coupling to ozone chemistry. We can expect such models to play an increasingly central role in the study of ozone and climate in the future, analogous to the central role of global climate models in the study of tropospheric climate change

Feasibility study of large-scale deployment of colour-ringing on black-legged kittiwake populations to improve the realism of demographic models assessing the population impacts of offshore wind farms

• Renewable energy developments, including offshore wind farms have been identified as a key component in international efforts to mitigate climate change and its impact on biodiversity. This has led to an increasing number of offshore wind farms around the UK, however, these can have negative impacts on seabird populations. • Population Viability Analysis (PVA) is frequently used to quantify these potential negative effects on seabird populations and is a vital part of the consenting process. However, a lack of empirical data on many aspects of seabird demography means that there can be considerable uncertainty in these assessments. • Black-legged Kittiwake Rissa tridactyla populations are thought to be particularly sensitive to additional mortality caused by collision with offshore wind turbines and are often highlighted as a feature of Special Protection Areas (SPAs). Offshore wind farms, therefore, have been identified as potentially causing an adverse effect on site integrity at some SPAs. • Despite being a relatively well-studied species, there is still much uncertainty in our knowledge of Kittiwake demographic rates and meta-population dynamics, which impedes our ability to accurately assess the way populations might respond to additional wind farm-induced mortality. • The Offshore Wind Strategic Monitoring and Research Forum (OWSMRF) identified a large-scale colour-ringing programme of Kittiwake colonies across the UK as one potential approach for improving empirical estimates of Kittiwake demographic rates. • Therefore, the main aim of this project was to determine the extent to which colour-ringing can be used to obtain reliable baseline estimates of key demographic rates in Kittiwake populations to improve the realism of demographic models assessing the population impacts of offshore wind farms, and thereby reduce uncertainty around these predicted impacts

Diurnal Variation in Martian Dust Devil Activity

We show that the dust devil parameterisation in use in most Mars Global Circulation Models (MGCMs) results in an unexpectedly high level of dust devil activity during morning hours. Prior expectations of the diurnal variation of Martian dust devils are based mainly upon the observed behaviour of terrestrial dust devils: i.e. that the majority occur during the afternoon. We instead find that large areas of the Martian surface experience dust devil activity during the morning in our MGCM, and that many locations experience a peak in dust devil activity before mid-sol. We find that the diurnal variation in dust devil activity is governed by near-surface wind speeds. Within the range of daylight hours, higher wind speeds tend to produce higher levels of dust devil activity, rather than the activity simply being governed by the availability of heat at the planet's surface, which peaks in early afternoon. Evidence for whether the phenomenon we observe is real or an artefact of the parameterisation is inconclusive. We compare our results with surface-based observations of Martian dust devil timings and obtain a good match with the majority of surveys. We do not find a good match with orbital observations, which identify a diurnal distribution more closely matching that of terrestrial dust devils, but orbital observations have limited temporal coverage, biased towards the early afternoon. We propose that the generally accepted description of dust devil behaviour on Mars is incomplete, and that theories of dust devil formation may need to be modified specifically for the Martian environment. Further surveys of dust devil observations are required to support any such modifications. These surveys should include both surface and orbital observations, and the range of observations must encompass the full diurnal period and consider the wider meteorological context surrounding the observations

Measurement of W Polarisation at LEP

The three different helicity states of W bosons produced in the reaction e+ e- -> W+ W- -> l nu q q~ at LEP are studied using leptonic and hadronic W decays. Data at centre-of-mass energies \sqrt s = 183-209 GeV are used to measure the polarisation of W bosons, and its dependence on the W boson production angle. The fraction of longitudinally polarised W bosons is measured to be 0.218 \pm 0.027 \pm 0.016 where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic, in agreement with the Standard Model expectation

Search for Anomalous Couplings in the Higgs Sector at LEP

Anomalous couplings of the Higgs boson are searched for through the processes e^+ e^- -> H gamma, e^+ e^- -> e^+ e^- H and e^+ e^- -> HZ. The mass range 70 GeV < m_H < 190 GeV is explored using 602 pb^-1 of integrated luminosity collected with the L3 detector at LEP at centre-of-mass energies sqrt(s)=189-209 GeV. The Higgs decay channels H -> ffbar, H -> gamma gamma, H -> Z\gamma and H -> WW^(*) are considered and no evidence is found for anomalous Higgs production or decay. Limits on the anomalous couplings d, db, Delta(g1z), Delta(kappa_gamma) and xi^2 are derived as well as limits on the H -> gamma gamma and H -> Z gamma decay rates

Measurement of W Polarisation at LEP

The three different helicity states of W bosons produced in the reaction e+ e- -> W+ W- -> l nu q q~ at LEP are studied using leptonic and hadronic W decays. Data at centre-of-mass energies \sqrt s = 183-209 GeV are used to measure the polarisation of W bosons, and its dependence on the W boson production angle. The fraction of longitudinally polarised W bosons is measured to be 0.218 \pm 0.027 \pm 0.016 where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic, in agreement with the Standard Model expectation