Hierarchical multi-population viability analysis

Population viability analysis (PVA) uses concepts from theoretical ecology to provide a powerful tool for quantitative estimates of population dynamics and extinction risks. However, conventional statistical PVA requires long-term data from every population of interest, whereas many species of concern exist in multiple isolated populations that are only monitored occasionally. We present a hierarchical multi-population viability analysis model that increases inference power from sparse data by sharing information among populations to assess extinction risks while accounting for incomplete detection and sampling biases with explicit observation and sampling sub-models. We present a case study in which we customized this model for historical population monitoring data (1985-2015) from federally threatened Lahontan cutthroat trout populations in the Great Basin, USA. Data were counts of fish captured during backpack electrofishing surveys from locations associated with 155 isolated populations. Some surveys (25%) included multi-pass removal sampling, which provided valuable information about capture efficiency. GIS and remote sensing were used to estimate August stream temperatures, peak flows, and riparian vegetation condition in each population each year. Field data were used to derive an annual index of nonnative trout densities. Results indicated that population growth rates were higher in colder streams and that nonnative trout reduced carrying capacities of native trout. Extinction risks increased with more environmental stochasticity and were also related to population extent, water temperatures, and nonnative densities. We developed a graphical user interface to interact with the fitted model results and to simulate future habitat scenarios and management actions to assess their influence on extinction risks in each population. Hierarchical multi-population viability analysis bridges the gap between site-level field observations and population-level processes, making effective use of existing datasets to support management decisions with robust estimates of population dynamics, extinction risks, and uncertainties

Prevalence of vascular disruption anomalies and association with young maternal age: A EUROCAT study to compare the United Kingdom with other European countries

Background Younger mothers are at a greater risk of having a pregnancy with gastroschisis and the risk is higher in the United Kingdom than other European countries. Gastroschisis is thought to be a vascular disruption anomaly and the aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence of other possible vascular disruption anomalies to determine whether both the younger maternal age and the UK associations also occur with these anomalies. Methods All pregnancies with anomalies considered potentially due to vascular disruption from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2017 from 26 European population-based congenital anomaly registries who were members of EUROCAT were analyzed. Multilevel models were used to allow for differences between registries when analyzing associations with maternal age, year of birth and whether the registry was in the United Kingdom. Results There were 5,220 cases with potential vascular disruption anomalies, excluding chromosomal and genetic conditions, with a prevalence of 8.85 per 10,000 births in the United Kingdom and 5.44 in the other European countries. The prevalence per 10,000 births of gastroschisis (4.45 vs. 1.56) and congenital constriction bands (0.83 vs. 0.42) was significantly higher in the United Kingdom, even after adjusting for maternal age. However, transverse limb reduction defects had a similar prevalence (2.16 vs. 2.14 per 10,000). The expected increased prevalence in younger mothers was observed for vascular disruption anomalies overall and for the individual anomalies: gastroschisis and congenital constriction bands. Conclusion Vascular disruption anomalies that had an increased risk for younger mothers (such as gastroschisis) had a higher maternal age standardized prevalence in the United Kingdom, while vascular disruption anomalies with weaker associations with younger mothers (such as transverse limb reduction defects) did not have an increased prevalence in the United Kingdom, which may indicate a different etiology for these anomalies.publishedVersio

Prevalence of microcephaly in Europe:population based study

OBJECTIVESTo provide contemporary estimates of the prevalence of microcephaly in Europe, determine if the diagnosis of microcephaly is consistent across Europe, and evaluate whether changes in prevalence would be detected using the current European surveillance performed by EUROCAT (the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies).DESIGNQuestionnaire and population based observational study.SETTING24 EUROCAT registries covering 570 000 births annually in 15 countries.PARTICIPANTSCases of microcephaly not associated with a genetic condition among live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks' gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly at any gestation.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURESPrevalence of microcephaly (1 Jan 2003-31 Dec 2012) analysed with random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneity across registries.RESULTS16 registries responded to the questionnaire, of which 44% (7/16) used the EUROCAT definition of microcephaly (a reduction in the size of the brain with a skull circumference more than 3 SD below the mean for sex, age, and ethnic origin), 19% (3/16) used a 2 SD cut off, 31% (5/16) were reliant on the criteria used by individual clinicians, and one changed criteria between 2003 and 2012. Prevalence of microcephaly in Europe was 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.16 to 1.96) per 10 000 births, with registries varying from 0.4 (0.2 to 0.7) to 4.3 (3.6 to 5.0) per 10 000 (X-2= 338, df= 23, I-2=93%). Registries with a 3 SD cut off reported a prevalence of 1.74 per 10 000 (0.86 to 2.93) compared with those with the less stringent 2 SD cut off of 1.21 per 10 000 (0.21 to 2.93). The prevalence of microcephaly would need to increase in one year by over 35% in Europe or by over 300% in a single registry to reach statistical significance (PCONCLUSIONSEUROCAT could detect increases in the prevalence of microcephaly from the Zika virus of a similar magnitude to those observed in Brazil. Because of the rarity of microcephaly and discrepant diagnostic criteria, however, the smaller increases expected in Europe would probably not be detected. Clear diagnostic criteria for microcephaly must be adopted across Europe.</p

Amniotic band syndrome and limb body wall complex in Europe 1980–2019

Amniotic band syndrome (ABS) and limb body wall complex (LBWC) have an overlapping phenotype of multiple congenital anomalies and their etiology is unknown. We aimed to determine the prevalence of ABS and LBWC in Europe from 1980 to 2019 and to describe the spectrum of congenital anomalies. In addition, we investigated maternal age and multiple birth as possible risk factors for the occurrence of ABS and LBWC. We used data from the European surveillance of congenital anomalies (EUROCAT) network including data from 30 registries over 1980–2019. We included all pregnancy outcomes, including live births, stillbirths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomalies. ABS and LBWC cases were extracted from the central EUROCAT database using coding information responses from the registries. In total, 866 ABS cases and 451 LBWC cases were included in this study. The mean prevalence was 0.53/10,000 births for ABS and 0.34/10,000 births for LBWC during the 40 years. Prevalence of both ABS and LBWC was lower in the 1980s and higher in the United Kingdom. Limb anomalies and neural tube defects were commonly seen in ABS, whereas in LBWC abdominal and thoracic wall defects and limb anomalies were most prevalent. Twinning was confirmed as a risk factor for both ABS and LBWC. This study includes the largest cohort of ABS and LBWC cases ever reported over a large time period using standardized EUROCAT data. Prevalence, clinical characteristics, and the phenotypic spectrum are described, and twinning is confirmed as a risk factor.publishedVersio

From Inception to ConcePTION: Genesis of a Network to Support Better Monitoring and Communication of Medication Safety During Pregnancy and Breastfeeding

In 2019, the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) funded the ConcePTION project—Building an ecosystem for better monitoring and communicating safety of medicines use in pregnancy and breastfeeding: validated and regulatory endorsed workflows for fast, optimised evidence generation—with the vision that there is a societal obligation to rapidly reduce uncertainty about the safety of medication use in pregnancy and breastfeeding. The present paper introduces the set of concepts used to describe the European data sources involved in the ConcePTION project and illustrates the ConcePTION Common Data Model (CDM), which serves as the keystone of the federated ConcePTION network. Based on data availability and content analysis of 21 European data sources, the ConcePTION CDM has been structured with six tables designed to capture data from routine healthcare, three tables for data from public health surveillance activities, three curated tables for derived data on population (e.g., observation time and mother-child linkage), plus four metadata tables. By its first anniversary, the ConcePTION CDM has enabled 13 data sources to run common scripts to contribute to major European projects, demonstrating its capacity to facilitate effective and transparent deployment of distributed analytics, and its potential to address questions about utilization, effectiveness, and safety of medicines in special populations, including during pregnancy and breastfeeding, and, more broadly, in the general population

Real-time monitoring shows substantial excess all-cause mortality during second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, October to December 2020.

The European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network monitors weekly excess all-cause mortality in 27 European countries or subnational areas. During the first wave of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe in spring 2020, several countries experienced extraordinarily high levels of excess mortality. Europe is currently seeing another upsurge in COVID-19 cases, and EuroMOMO is again witnessing a substantial excess all-cause mortality attributable to COVID-19.Funding statement: The EuroMOMO network hub at Statens Serum Institut receives funding from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden, through a framework contract 2017-2020.S

Coexpression Network Analysis in Abdominal and Gluteal Adipose Tissue Reveals Regulatory Genetic Loci for Metabolic Syndrome and Related Phenotypes

Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is highly prevalent and has considerable public health impact, but its underlying genetic factors remain elusive. To identify gene networks involved in MetS, we conducted whole-genome expression and genotype profiling on abdominal (ABD) and gluteal (GLU) adipose tissue, and whole blood (WB), from 29 MetS cases and 44 controls. Co-expression network analysis for each tissue independently identified nine, six, and zero MetS–associated modules of coexpressed genes in ABD, GLU, and WB, respectively. Of 8,992 probesets expressed in ABD or GLU, 685 (7.6%) were expressed in ABD and 51 (0.6%) in GLU only. Differential eigengene network analysis of 8,256 shared probesets detected 22 shared modules with high preservation across adipose depots (DABD-GLU = 0.89), seven of which were associated with MetS (FDR P<0.01). The strongest associated module, significantly enriched for immune response–related processes, contained 94/620 (15%) genes with inter-depot differences. In an independent cohort of 145/141 twins with ABD and WB longitudinal expression data, median variability in ABD due to familiality was greater for MetS–associated versus un-associated modules (ABD: 0.48 versus 0.18, P = 0.08; GLU: 0.54 versus 0.20, P = 7.8×10−4). Cis-eQTL analysis of probesets associated with MetS (FDR P<0.01) and/or inter-depot differences (FDR P<0.01) provided evidence for 32 eQTLs. Corresponding eSNPs were tested for association with MetS–related phenotypes in two GWAS of >100,000 individuals; rs10282458, affecting expression of RARRES2 (encoding chemerin), was associated with body mass index (BMI) (P = 6.0×10−4); and rs2395185, affecting inter-depot differences of HLA-DRB1 expression, was associated with high-density lipoprotein (P = 8.7×10−4) and BMI–adjusted waist-to-hip ratio (P = 2.4×10−4). Since many genes and their interactions influence complex traits such as MetS, integrated analysis of genotypes and coexpression networks across multiple tissues relevant to clinical traits is an efficient strategy to identify novel associations

Ancient nuclear genomes enable repatriation of Indigenous human remains.

After European colonization, the ancestral remains of Indigenous people were often collected for scientific research or display in museum collections. For many decades, Indigenous people, including Native Americans and Aboriginal Australians, have fought for their return. However, many of these remains have no recorded provenance, making their repatriation very difficult or impossible. To determine whether DNA-based methods could resolve this important problem, we sequenced 10 nuclear genomes and 27 mitogenomes from ancient pre-European Aboriginal Australians (up to 1540 years before the present) of known provenance and compared them to 100 high-coverage contemporary Aboriginal Australian genomes, also of known provenance. We report substantial ancient population structure showing strong genetic affinities between ancient and contemporary Aboriginal Australian individuals from the same geographic location. Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of successfully identifying the origins of unprovenanced ancestral remains using genomic methods

Neke odrednice doživljaja roditeljske kompetentnosti u obiteljima djece s teškoćama u razvoju

Pozitivna slika o roditeljskoj kompetentnosti povezana je s osjećajem uspješnosti u roditeljstvu i kvaliteti interakcije djeteta i roditelja. Cilj ovog istraživanja bio je ispitati doprinos socio-demografskih obilježja roditelja i djeteta s teškoćama u razvoju, pokazatelja dobrobiti roditelja, podrške neposredne i šire okoline te roditeljskog stresa u objašnjenju roditeljskog osjećaja kompetentnosti. U uzorku 308 roditelja djece predškolske dobi prediktorima roditeljske kompetentnosti pokazali su se: zdravlje, bračno stanje i zadovoljstvo brakom. Povrh varijabli unesenih u prvom koraku primjenom hijerarhijske regresijske analize u drugom koraku objašnjeno je 23% varijance u efikasnosti roditeljstva, te 44% varijance zadovoljstva u roditeljskoj ulozi. Dobiveni rezultati pridonose spoznajama o roditeljskoj kompetentnosti u obiteljima djece s teškoćama u razvoju, upućujući na potrebu daljnjeg istraživanja ovog za obitelj važnog područja