Intelligent agent simulator in massive crowd

Crowd simulations have many benefits over real-life research such as in computer games, architecture and entertainment. One of the key elements in this study is to include elements of decision-making into the crowd. The aim of this simulator is to simulate the features of an intelligent agent to escape from crowded environments especially in one-way corridor, two-way corridor and four-way intersection. The addition of the graphical user interface enables intuitive and fast handling in all settings and features of the Intelligent Agent Simulator and allows convenient research in the field of intelligent behaviour in massive crowd. This paper describes the development of a simulator by using the Open Graphics Library (OpenGL), starting from the production of training data, the simulation process, until the simulation results. The Social Force Model (SFM) is used to generate the motion of agents and the Support Vector Machine (SVM) is used to predict the next step for intelligent agent

Multi Population Evolutionary Programming Approach for Distributed Generation Installation

This paper describes the impact of the distribution development in order to identify optimum location and sizing for distribution generation (DG) in power system network. Highly demand on the load will lead to in control power distributed by introducing power losses via transmitting the power. Therefore, small-scale electricity generation is required to ensure the large power generated can be used for particular location to minimize losses. In addition, the implementation of distribution generation will slightly reduce the capital cost compared to existing power plant due to space, speed and source required. Thus, proper DG location will significantly enhance the impact on the power flow analysis by considering the source of energy easily obtained. This study will be conducted by using Matlab and the proposed algorithm (MPEP)will be applied on IEEE 30 buses radial distribution system network. As results, the DG is located at optimal locations and sizes rely on the losses consume in various type of DGs technology system used in the network. On the others hand, the condition and location DG itself will generate the optimal power contribution depends on the design strategies that have been implemented

Atenuasi ultrasonik dan modulus ricih pada suhu genting superkonduktor terdop sederhana (Tl0.8Bi0.2)Sr2 (Ca0.9Cr0.1)Cu2 O7

Modulus ricih dan atenuasi ultrasonik superkonduktor suhu tinggi terdop sederhana (Tl0.8Bi0.2)Sr2 (Ca0.9Cr0.1)Cu2 O7 (Tl-1212) dengan suhu genting (Tc ) 98 K telah dikaji. Modulus ricih, G meningkat apabila suhu diturunkan daripada 240 K ke 80 K yang menunjukkan pengerasan kekisi. Walau bagaimanapun, pada suhu antara 160 K hingga 190 K modulus ricih menunjukkan anomali menandakan kecenderungan untuk kekisi melembut. Berhampiran suhu genting modulus ricih menunjukkan pelembutan kekisi iaitu ketakselanjaran pada cerun (dG/dT) dan ini sejajar dengan ciri peralihan fasa termodinamik tertib ke dua. Peratus perubahan modulus ricih antara 240 K dan 80 K ialah 5.5%. Atenuasi ultrasonik menunjukkan penurunan mendadak daripada 240 K ke 210 K diikuti dengan profil yang hampir mendatar sehingga 140 K. Puncak atenuasi dicerap berhampiran suhu genting dan ini menunjukkan penyerapan tenaga akustik meningkat apabila bahan memasuki fasa mensuperkonduksi. Anomali modulus ricih dan atenuasi ultrasonik ini dijelaskan melalui peralihan fasa tertib kedua dan tertiban oksigen jarak dekat dalam satah Cu-O unit sel bahan superkonduktor ini

Establishment of Wolbachia strain wAlbB in Malaysian populations of Aedes aegypti for dengue control

Dengue has enormous health impacts globally. A novel approach to decrease dengue incidence involves the introduction of Wolbachia endosymbionts that block dengue virus transmission into populations of the primary vector mosquito, Aedes aegypti. The wMel Wolbachia strain has previously been trialed in open releases of Ae. aegypti; however, the wAlbB strain has been shown to maintain higher density than wMel at high larval rearing temperatures. Releases of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes carrying wAlbB were carried out in 6 diverse sites in greater Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, with high endemic dengue transmission. The strain was successfully established and maintained at very high population frequency at some sites or persisted with additional releases following fluctuations at other sites. Based on passive case monitoring, reduced human dengue incidence was observed in the release sites when compared to control sites. The wAlbB strain of Wolbachia provides a promising option as a tool for dengue control, particularly in very hot climates

Systemic Type I IFN Inflammation in Human ISG15 Deficiency Leads to Necrotizing Skin Lesions

Most monogenic disorders have a primary clinical presentation. Inherited ISG15 deficiency, however, has manifested with two distinct presentations to date: susceptibility to mycobacterial disease and intracranial calcifications from hypomorphic interferon-II (IFN-II) production and excessive IFN-I response, respectively. Accordingly, these patients were managed for their infectious and neurologic complications. Herein, we describe five new patients with six novel ISG15 mutations presenting with skin lesions who were managed for dermatologic disease. Cellularly, we denote striking specificity to the IFN-I response, which was previously assumed to be universal. In peripheral blood, myeloid cells display the most robust IFN-I signatures. In the affected skin, IFN-I signaling is observed in the keratinocytes of the epidermis, endothelia, and the monocytes and macrophages of the dermis. These findings define the specific cells causing circulating and dermatologic inflammation and expand the clinical spectrum of ISG15 deficiency to dermatologic presentations as a third phenotype co-dominant to the infectious and neurologic manifestations.Fil: Martin Fernandez, Marta. Icahn School Of Medicine At Mount Sinai; Estados Unidos. King Saud University; Arabia SauditaFil: Bravo García Morato, María. Instituto de Investigacion del Hospital de la Paz.; EspañaFil: Gruber, Conor. Icahn School Of Medicine At Mount Sinai; Estados Unidos. King Saud University; Arabia SauditaFil: Murias Loza, Sara. Instituto de Investigacion del Hospital de la Paz.; EspañaFil: Malik, Muhammad Nasir Hayat. Twincore; Alemania. University Of Lahore; Países Bajos. Leibniz Universitat Hannover; Alemania. Helmholtz Gemeinschaft; AlemaniaFil: Alsohime, Fahad. King Saud University; Arabia SauditaFil: Alakeel, Abdullah. King Saud University; Arabia SauditaFil: Valdez, Rita. Gobierno de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires. Hospital General de Agudos Doctor Cosme Argerich; ArgentinaFil: Buta, Sofija. Icahn School Of Medicine At Mount Sinai; Estados UnidosFil: Buda, Guadalupe. Bitgenia; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica. Departamento de Biología Celular e Histología; ArgentinaFil: Marti, Marcelo Adrian. Bitgenia; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica. Departamento de Biología Celular e Histología; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Química Biológica de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Larralde, Margarita. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital General de Agudos "Ramos Mejía"; ArgentinaFil: Boisson, Bertrand. L'institut Des Maladies Génétiques Imagine; Francia. The Rockefeller University; Estados Unidos. Universite de Paris; FranciaFil: Feito Rodriguez, Marta. Instituto de Investigacion del Hospital de la Paz.; EspañaFil: Qiu, Xueer. Icahn School Of Medicine At Mount Sinai; Estados UnidosFil: Chrabieh, Maya. L'institut Des Maladies Génétiques Imagine; FranciaFil: Al Ayed, Mohammed. Najran University; Arabia SauditaFil: Al Muhsen, Saleh. King Saud University; Arabia SauditaFil: Desai, Jigar V.. National Institutes of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Ferre, Elise M.N.. National Institutes of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Rosenzweig, Sergio D.. National Institutes of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Amador-Borrero, Blanca. Icahn School Of Medicine At Mount Sinai; Estados UnidosFil: Bravo-Gallego, Luz Yadira. Instituto de Investigacion del Hospital de la Paz.; EspañaFil: Olmer, Ruth. Hannover Medical School; Alemania. German Center for Lung Research; AlemaniaFil: Merkert, Sylvia. Hannover Medical School; Alemania. German Center for Lung Research; AlemaniaFil: Bret, Montserrat. Instituto de Investigacion del Hospital de la Paz.; EspañaFil: Sood, Amika K.. University of North Carolina; Estados UnidosFil: Al-rabiaah, Abdulkarim. King Saud University; Arabia SauditaFil: Temsah, Mohamad Hani. King Saud University; Arabia SauditaFil: Halwani, Rabih. University of Sharjah; Emiratos Arabes UnidosFil: Hernandez, Michelle Marilyn. University of North Carolina; Estados UnidosFil: Pessler, Frank. Twincore; Alemania. Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research; AlemaniaFil: Casanova, Jean Laurent. The Rockefeller University; Estados Unidos. Necker Hospital for Sick Children; Francia. Howard Hughes Medical Institute; Estados Unidos. Universite de Paris; FranciaFil: Bustamante, Jacinta. The Rockefeller University; Estados Unidos. Necker Hospital for Sick Children; Francia. Universite de Paris; FranciaFil: Lionakis, Michail S.. National Institutes of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Bogunovic, Dusan. Icahn School Of Medicine At Mount Sinai; Estados Unido

Potential health and economic impacts of dexamethasone treatment for patients with COVID-19

Acknowledgements We thank all members of the COVID-19 International Modelling Consortium and their collaborative partners. This work was supported by the COVID-19 Research Response Fund, managed by the Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford. L.J.W. is supported by the Li Ka Shing Foundation. R.A. acknowledges funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1193472).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Multiwavelength L-band fiber laser with bismuth-oxide EDF and photonic crystal fiber.

A multiwavelength laser comb using a bismuth-based erbium-doped fiber and 50 m photonic crystal fiber is demonstrated in a ring cavity configuration. The fiber laser is solely pumped by a single 1455 nm Raman pump laser to exploit its higher power delivery compared to that of a single-mode laser diode pump. At 264 mW Raman pump power and 1 mW Brillouin pump power, 38 output channels in the L-band have been realized with an optical signal-to-noise ratio above 15 dB and a Stokes line spacing of 0.08 nm. The laser exhibits a tuning range of 12 nm and produces stable Stokes lines across the tuning range between Brillouin pump wavelengths of 1603 nm and 1615 nm

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease