Noisy Monte Carlo: Convergence of Markov chains with approximate transition kernels

Monte Carlo algorithms often aim to draw from a distribution $\pi$ by simulating a Markov chain with transition kernel $P$ such that $\pi$ is invariant under $P$. However, there are many situations for which it is impractical or impossible to draw from the transition kernel $P$. For instance, this is the case with massive datasets, where is it prohibitively expensive to calculate the likelihood and is also the case for intractable likelihood models arising from, for example, Gibbs random fields, such as those found in spatial statistics and network analysis. A natural approach in these cases is to replace $P$ by an approximation $\hat{P}$. Using theory from the stability of Markov chains we explore a variety of situations where it is possible to quantify how 'close' the chain given by the transition kernel $\hat{P}$ is to the chain given by $P$. We apply these results to several examples from spatial statistics and network analysis.Comment: This version: results extended to non-uniformly ergodic Markov chain

Evolution of South Atlantic density and chemical stratification across the last deglaciation

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this recordExplanations of the glacial-interglacial variations in atmospheric pCO2invoke a significant role for the deep ocean in the storage of CO2. Deep-ocean density stratification has been proposed as a mechanism to promote the storage of CO2in the deep ocean during glacial times. A wealth of proxy data supports the presence of a "chemical divide" between intermediate and deep water in the glacial Atlantic Ocean, which indirectly points to an increase in deep-ocean density stratification. However, direct observational evidence of changes in the primary controls of ocean density stratification, i.e., temperature and salinity, remain scarce. Here, we use Mg/Ca-derived seawater temperature and salinity estimates determined from temperature-corrected δ18O measurements on the benthic foraminifer Uvigerina spp. from deep and intermediate water-depth marine sediment cores to reconstruct the changes in density of sub-Antarctic South Atlantic water masses over the last deglaciation (i.e., 22-2 ka before present). We find that a major breakdown in the physical density stratification significantly lags the breakdown of the deep-intermediate chemical divide, as indicated by the chemical tracers of benthic foraminifer δ13C and foraminifer/coral14C. Our results indicate that chemical destratification likely resulted in the first rise in atmospheric pCO2, whereas the density destratification of the deep South Atlantic lags the second rise in atmospheric pCO2during the late deglacial period. Our findings emphasize that the physical and chemical destratification of the ocean are not as tightly coupled as generally assumed.J.R. was funded jointly by the British Geological Survey/British Antarctic Survey (Natural Environment Research Council) and the University of Cambridge. J.G. was funded by the Gates Cambridge Trust. L.C.S. acknowledges support from the Royal Society and NERC Grant NE/J010545/1. C.W. acknowledges support from the European Research Council Grant ACCLIMATE 339108. This work was funded (in part) by the European Research Council (ERC Grant 2010-NEWLOG ADG-267931 HE). N.V.R. acknowledges support from EU RTN NICE (36127)

Critical pathways for the management of preeclampsia and severe preeclampsia in institutionalised health care settings

BACKGROUND: Preeclampsia is a complex disease in which several providers should interact continuously and in a coordinated manner to provide proper health care. However, standardizing criteria to treat patients with preeclampsia is problematical and severe flaws have been observed in the management of the disease. This paper describes a set of critical pathways (CPs) designed to provide uniform criteria for clinical decision-making at different levels of care of pregnant patients with preeclampsia or severe preeclampsia. METHODS: Clinicians and researchers from different countries participated in the construction of the CPs. The CPs were developed using the following steps: a) Definition of the conceptual framework; b) Identification of potential users: primary care physicians and maternal and child health nurses in ambulatory settings; ob/gyn and intensive care physicians in secondary and tertiary care levels. c) Structural development. RESULTS: The CPs address the following care processes: 1. Screening for preeclampsia, risk assessment and classification according to the level of risk. 2. Management of preeclampsia at primary care clinics. 3. Evaluation and management of preeclampsia at secondary and tertiary care hospitals: 4. Criteria for clinical decision-making between conservative management and expedited delivery of patients with severe preeclampsia. CONCLUSION: Since preeclampsia continues to be one of the primary causes of maternal deaths and morbidity worldwide, the expected impact of these CPs is the contribution to improving health care quality in both developed and developing countries. The CPs are designed to be applied in a complex health care system, where different physicians and health providers at different levels of care should interact continuously and in a coordinated manner to provide care to all preeclamptic women. Although the CPs were developed using evidence-based criteria, they could require careful evaluation and remodelling according to each system's demands. Additionally, the CPs need to be tested in large-scale, multi-level studies in order to thoroughly examine and evaluate their efficacy and effectiveness

Magnetic dating of the Holocene monogenetic Tkarsheti volcano in the Kazbeki region (Great Caucasus)

The radiocarbon technique is widely used to date Late Pleistocene and Holocene lava flows. The significant difference with palaeomagnetic methods is that the 14C dating is performed on the organic matter carbonized by the rock formation or the paleosols found within or below the lava flow. On the contrary, the archaeomagnetic dating allows to date the moment when the lava is cooling down below the Curie temperatures. In the present study, we use the paleomagnetic dating to constrain the age of the Tkarsheti monogenetic volcano located within the Kazbeki Volcanic Province (Great Caucasus). A series of rock-magnetic experiments including the measurement of hysteresis curves, isothermal remanence, back-field and continuous thermomagnetic curves were applied. These experiments indicated that Pseudo-Single-Domain Ti-poor titanomagnetite is responsible for remanence. A characteristic remanent magnetization was obtained for all twenty analyzed samples yielding a stable single magnetization component observed upon both thermal and alternating field treatments. Comparison of the mean directions obtained (Inc = 48.6º, Dec = 6.4º, A95 = 4.0° and K = 67) with the SCHA.DIF.14k model yielded two main time intervals (4740–4650 or 4427– 4188 BC) as the best age estimate of the Lesser Tkarsheti lava flow. These results suggest an earlier age (between approximately 200 and 700 years) for this monogenetic lava flow than expected from the estimated age provided by a former 14C dating obtained in 1973 on woody remains. This first attempt to use the archaeomagnetic technique in the Caucasus indicates that the SCHA.DIF.14k geomagnetic model may be successfully used for dating purposes in the region.Projects BU0066U16 and BU235P18 (Junta de Castilla y Leon, Spain) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). AG is grateful for financial support of CONACyT 252149 and UNAM-PAPIIT project 101717. MC-R and AC acknowledge the financial support given by the Junta de Castilla y León (project BU235P18) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERD)

A Search for Dark Higgs Bosons

Recent astrophysical and terrestrial experiments have motivated the proposal of a dark sector with GeV-scale gauge boson force carriers and new Higgs bosons. We present a search for a dark Higgs boson using 516 fb-1 of data collected with the BABAR detector. We do not observe a significant signal and we set 90% confidence level upper limits on the product of the Standard Model-dark sector mixing angle and the dark sector coupling constant.Comment: 7 pages, 5 postscript figures, published version with improved plots for b/w printin

Measurement of the Forward-Backward Asymmetry in the B -> K(*) mu+ mu- Decay and First Observation of the Bs -> phi mu+ mu- Decay

We reconstruct the rare decays $B^+ \to K^+\mu^+\mu^-$, $B^0 \to K^{*}(892)^0\mu^+\mu^-$, and $B^0_s \to \phi(1020)\mu^+\mu^-$ in a data sample corresponding to $4.4 {\rm fb^{-1}}$ collected in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=1.96 {\rm TeV}$ by the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. Using $121 \pm 16$ $B^+ \to K^+\mu^+\mu^-$ and $101 \pm 12$ $B^0 \to K^{*0}\mu^+\mu^-$ decays we report the branching ratios. In addition, we report the measurement of the differential branching ratio and the muon forward-backward asymmetry in the $B^+$ and $B^0$ decay modes, and the $K^{*0}$ longitudinal polarization in the $B^0$ decay mode with respect to the squared dimuon mass. These are consistent with the theoretical prediction from the standard model, and most recent determinations from other experiments and of comparable accuracy. We also report the first observation of the $B^0_s \to \phi\mu^+\mu^- decay and measure its branching ratio${\mathcal{B}}(B^0_s \to \phi\mu^+\mu^-) = [1.44 \pm 0.33 \pm 0.46] \times 10^{-6}$using$27 \pm 6$signal events. This is currently the most rare$B^0_s$ decay observed.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Human-Like Receptor Specificity Does Not Affect the Neuraminidase-Inhibitor Susceptibility of H5N1 Influenza Viruses

If highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses acquire affinity for human rather than avian respiratory epithelium, will their susceptibility to neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors (the likely first line of defense against an influenza pandemic) change as well? Adequate pandemic preparedness requires that this question be answered. We generated and tested 31 recombinants of A/Vietnam/1203/04 (H5N1) influenza virus carrying single, double, or triple mutations located within or near the receptor binding site in the hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein that alter H5 HA binding affinity or specificity. To gain insight into how combinations of HA and NA mutations can affect the sensitivity of H5N1 virus to NA inhibitors, we also rescued viruses carrying the HA changes together with the H274Y NA substitution, which was reported to confer resistance to the NA inhibitor oseltamivir. Twenty viruses were genetically stable. The triple N158S/Q226L/N248D HA mutation (which eliminates a glycosylation site at position 158) caused a switch from avian to human receptor specificity. In cultures of differentiated human airway epithelial (NHBE) cells, which provide an ex vivo model that recapitulates the receptors in the human respiratory tract, none of the HA-mutant recombinants showed reduced susceptibility to antiviral drugs (oseltamivir or zanamivir). This finding was consistent with the results of NA enzyme inhibition assay, which appears to predict influenza virus susceptibility in vivo. Therefore, acquisition of human-like receptor specificity does not affect susceptibility to NA inhibitors. Sequence analysis of the NA gene alone, rather than analysis of both the NA and HA genes, and phenotypic assays in NHBE cells are likely to adequately identify drug-resistant H5N1 variants isolated from humans during an outbreak

Measurements of the properties of Lambda_c(2595), Lambda_c(2625), Sigma_c(2455), and Sigma_c(2520) baryons

We report measurements of the resonance properties of Lambda_c(2595)+ and Lambda_c(2625)+ baryons in their decays to Lambda_c+ pi+ pi- as well as Sigma_c(2455)++,0 and Sigma_c(2520)++,0 baryons in their decays to Lambda_c+ pi+/- final states. These measurements are performed using data corresponding to 5.2/fb of integrated luminosity from ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV, collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. Exploiting the largest available charmed baryon sample, we measure masses and decay widths with uncertainties comparable to the world averages for Sigma_c states, and significantly smaller uncertainties than the world averages for excited Lambda_c+ states.Comment: added one reference and one table, changed order of figures, 17 pages, 15 figure