241 research outputs found
Early warning signals in plant disease outbreaks
Infectious disease outbreaks in plants threaten ecosystems, agricultural crops and food trade. Currently, several fungal diseases are affecting forests worldwide, posing a major risk to tree species, habitats and consequently ecosystem decay. Prediction and control of disease spread are difficult, mainly due to the complexity of the interaction between individual components involved. In this work, we introduce a lattice-based epidemic model coupled with a stochastic process that mimics, in a very simplified way, the interaction between the hosts and pathogen. We studied the disease spread by measuring the propagation velocity of the pathogen on the susceptible hosts. Our quantitative results indicate the occurrence of a critical transition between two stable phases: local confinement and an extended epiphytotic outbreak that depends on the density of the susceptible individuals. Quantitative predictions of epiphytotics are performed using the framework early-warning indicators for impending regime shifts, widely applied on dynamical systems. These signals forecast successfully the outcome of the critical shift between the two stable phases before the system enters the epiphytotic regime. Our study demonstrates that early-warning indicators could be useful for the prediction of forest disease epidemics through mathematical and computational models suited to more specific pathogenâhost-environmental interactions. Our results may also be useful to identify a suitable planting density to slow down disease spread and in the future, design highly resilient forests
On-chip high-speed sorting of micron-sized particles for high-throughput analysis
A new design of particle sorting chip is presented. The device employs a dielectrophoretic gate that deflects particles into one of two microfluidic channels at high speed. The device operates by focussing particles into the central streamline of the main flow channel using dielectrophoretic focussing. At the sorting junction (T- or Y-junction) two sets of electrodes produce a small dielectrophoretic force that pushes the particle into one or other of the outlet channels, where they are carried under the pressure-driven fluid flow to the outlet. For a 40mm wide and high channel, it is shown that 6micron diameter particles can be deflected at a rate of 300particles/s. The principle of a fully automated sorting device is demonstrated by separating fluorescent from non-fluorescent latex beads
Ultrasonic study of the gelation of gelatin: phase diagram, hysteresis and kinetics
We map the ultrasonic (8 MHz) speed and attenuation of edible-grade gelatin
in water, exploring the key dependencies on temperature, concentration and
time. The ultrasonic signatures of the sol-gel transition, confirmed by
rheological measurements, and incomplete gel formation at low concentrations,
enable a phase diagram of the system to be constructed. Sensitivity is also
demonstrated to the kinetics of gel formation and melting, and associated
hysteresis effects upon cyclic temperature sweeps. Furthermore, simple acoustic
models of the sol and gel state enable estimation of the speed of sound and
compressibility of gelatin. Our results demonstrate the potential of ultrasonic
measurements to characterise the structure and visco-elasticity of gelatin
hydrogels.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figure
Estimating the reproduction number, Râ, from individual-based models of tree disease spread
Tree populations worldwide are facing an unprecedented threat from a variety of tree diseases and invasive pests. Their spread, exacerbated by increasing globalisation and climate change, has an enormous environmental, economic and social impact. Computational individual-based models are a popular tool for describing and forecasting the spread of tree diseases due to their flexibility and ability to reveal collective behaviours. In this paper we present a versatile individual-based model with a Gaussian infectivity kernel to describe the spread of a generic tree disease through a synthetic treescape. We then explore several methods of calculating the basic reproduction number R0, a characteristic measurement of disease infectivity, defining the expected number of new infections resulting from one newly infected individual throughout their infectious period. It is a useful comparative summary parameter of a disease and can be used to explore the threshold dynamics of epidemics through mathematical models. We demonstrate several methods of estimating R0 through the individual-based model, including contact tracing, inferring the KermackâMcKendrick SIR model parameters using the linear noise approximation, and an analytical approximation. As an illustrative example, we then use the model and each of the methods to calculate estimates of R0 for the ash dieback epidemic in the UK
Online administration of research-based assessments
https://doi.org/10.1119/10.000288
Ecological Invasion, Roughened Fronts, and a Competitor's Extreme Advance: Integrating Stochastic Spatial-Growth Models
Both community ecology and conservation biology seek further understanding of
factors governing the advance of an invasive species. We model biological
invasion as an individual-based, stochastic process on a two-dimensional
landscape. An ecologically superior invader and a resident species compete for
space preemptively. Our general model includes the basic contact process and a
variant of the Eden model as special cases. We employ the concept of a
"roughened" front to quantify effects of discreteness and stochasticity on
invasion; we emphasize the probability distribution of the front-runner's
relative position. That is, we analyze the location of the most advanced
invader as the extreme deviation about the front's mean position. We find that
a class of models with different assumptions about neighborhood interactions
exhibit universal characteristics. That is, key features of the invasion
dynamics span a class of models, independently of locally detailed demographic
rules. Our results integrate theories of invasive spatial growth and generate
novel hypotheses linking habitat or landscape size (length of the invading
front) to invasion velocity, and to the relative position of the most advanced
invader.Comment: The original publication is available at
www.springerlink.com/content/8528v8563r7u2742
Atmospheric effects on extensive air showers observed with the Surface Detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory
Atmospheric parameters, such as pressure (P), temperature (T) and density,
affect the development of extensive air showers initiated by energetic cosmic
rays. We have studied the impact of atmospheric variations on extensive air
showers by means of the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The
rate of events shows a ~10% seasonal modulation and ~2% diurnal one. We find
that the observed behaviour is explained by a model including the effects
associated with the variations of pressure and density. The former affects the
longitudinal development of air showers while the latter influences the Moliere
radius and hence the lateral distribution of the shower particles. The model is
validated with full simulations of extensive air showers using atmospheric
profiles measured at the site of the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Astroparticle
Physic
Update on the correlation of the highest energy cosmic rays with nearby extragalactic matter
Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory through 31 August 2007 showed
evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above the
Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz'min energy threshold, \nobreak{eV}. The
anisotropy was measured by the fraction of arrival directions that are less
than from the position of an active galactic nucleus within 75 Mpc
(using the V\'eron-Cetty and V\'eron catalog). An updated
measurement of this fraction is reported here using the arrival directions of
cosmic rays recorded above the same energy threshold through 31 December 2009.
The number of arrival directions has increased from 27 to 69, allowing a more
precise measurement. The correlating fraction is , compared
with expected for isotropic cosmic rays. This is down from the early
estimate of . The enlarged set of arrival directions is
examined also in relation to other populations of nearby extragalactic objects:
galaxies in the 2 Microns All Sky Survey and active galactic nuclei detected in
hard X-rays by the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. A celestial region around the
position of the radiogalaxy Cen A has the largest excess of arrival directions
relative to isotropic expectations. The 2-point autocorrelation function is
shown for the enlarged set of arrival directions and compared to the isotropic
expectation.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physics on 31 August 201
The Fluorescence Detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory
The Pierre Auger Observatory is a hybrid detector for ultra-high energy
cosmic rays. It combines a surface array to measure secondary particles at
ground level together with a fluorescence detector to measure the development
of air showers in the atmosphere above the array. The fluorescence detector
comprises 24 large telescopes specialized for measuring the nitrogen
fluorescence caused by charged particles of cosmic ray air showers. In this
paper we describe the components of the fluorescence detector including its
optical system, the design of the camera, the electronics, and the systems for
relative and absolute calibration. We also discuss the operation and the
monitoring of the detector. Finally, we evaluate the detector performance and
precision of shower reconstructions.Comment: 53 pages. Submitted to Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics
Research Section
Advanced functionality for radio analysis in the Offline software framework of the Pierre Auger Observatory
The advent of the Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) necessitates the
development of a powerful framework for the analysis of radio measurements of
cosmic ray air showers. As AERA performs "radio-hybrid" measurements of air
shower radio emission in coincidence with the surface particle detectors and
fluorescence telescopes of the Pierre Auger Observatory, the radio analysis
functionality had to be incorporated in the existing hybrid analysis solutions
for fluoresence and surface detector data. This goal has been achieved in a
natural way by extending the existing Auger Offline software framework with
radio functionality. In this article, we lay out the design, highlights and
features of the radio extension implemented in the Auger Offline framework. Its
functionality has achieved a high degree of sophistication and offers advanced
features such as vectorial reconstruction of the electric field, advanced
signal processing algorithms, a transparent and efficient handling of FFTs, a
very detailed simulation of detector effects, and the read-in of multiple data
formats including data from various radio simulation codes. The source code of
this radio functionality can be made available to interested parties on
request.Comment: accepted for publication in NIM A, 13 pages, minor corrections to
author list and references in v
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