Vaccination against Foot-and-mouth disease : do initial conditions affect its benefit?

When facing incursion of a major livestock infectious disease, the decision to implement a vaccination programme is made at the national level. To make this decision, governments must consider whether the benefits of vaccination are sufficient to outweigh potential additional costs, including further trade restrictions that may be imposed due to the implementation of vaccination. However, little consensus exists on the factors triggering its implementation on the field. This work explores the effect of several triggers in the implementation of a reactive vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease. In particular, we tested whether changes in the location of the incursion and the delay of implementation would affect the epidemiological benefit of such a policy in the context of Scotland. To reach this goal, we used a spatial, premises-based model that has been extensively used to investigate the effectiveness of mitigation procedures in Great Britain. The results show that the decision to vaccinate, or not, is not straightforward and strongly depends on the underlying local structure of the population-at-risk. With regards to disease incursion preparedness, simply identifying areas of highest population density may not capture all complexities that may influence the spread of disease as well as the benefit of implementing vaccination. However, if a decision to vaccinate is made, we show that delaying its implementation in the field may markedly reduce its benefit. This work provides guidelines to support policy makers in their decision to implement, or not, a vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of infectious livestock disease

Converging and diverging convection around axisymmetric magnetic flux tubes

A numerical model of idealized sunspots and pores is presented, where axisymmetric cylindrical domains are used with aspect ratios (radius versus depth) up to 4. The model contains a compressible plasma with density and temperature gradients simulating the upper layer of the Sun's convection zone. Non-linear magnetohydrodynamic equations are solved numerically and time-dependent solutions are obtained where the magnetic field is pushed to the centre of the domain by convection cells. This central magnetic flux bundle is maintained by an inner convection cell, situated next to it and with a flow such that there is an inflow at the top of the numerical domain towards the flux bundle. For aspect ratio 4, a large inner cell persists in time, but for lower aspect ratios it becomes highly time dependent. For aspect ratios 2 and 3 this inner convection cell is smaller, tends to be situated towards the top of the domain next to the flux bundle, and appears and disappears with time. When it is gone, the neighbouring cell (with an opposite sense of rotation, i.e. outflow at the top) pulls the magnetic field away from the central axis. As this happens a new inner cell forms with an inflow which pushes the magnetic field towards the centre. This suggests that to maintain their form, both pores and sunspots need a neighbouring convection cell with inflow at the top towards the magnetic flux bundle. This convection cell does not have to be at the top of the convection zone and could be underneath the penumbral structure around sunspots. For an aspect ratio of 1, there is not enough space in the numerical domain for magnetic flux and convection to separate. In this case the solution oscillates between two steady states: two dominant convection cells threaded by magnetic field and one dominant cell that pushes magnetic flux towards the central axis

Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics

Funding: This work was supported by the Isaac Newton Institute (EPSRC grant no. EP/R014604/1). MEK was supported by grants from The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw), grant number 10430022010001, and grant number 91216062, and by the H2020 Project 101003480 (CORESMA). RNT was supported by the UKRI, grant number EP/V053507/1. GR was supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) project reference 131_596787873. and by the VERDI project 101045989 funded by the European Union. LP and CO are funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant 202562/Z/16/Z). LP is also supported by the UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium (grant number MR/V038613/1) and by The Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence. HBS is funded by the Wellcome Trust and Royal Society (202562/Z/16/Z), and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. DV had support from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development of Brazil (CNPq - Refs. 441057/2020-9, 424141/2018-3, 309569/2019-2). FS is supported by the UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium (grant number MR/V038613/1). EF is supported by UKRI (Medical Research Council)/Department of Health and Social Care (National Insitute of Health Research) MR/V028618/1. JPG's work was supported by funding from the UK Health Security Agency and the UK Department of Health and Social Care.Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from this and previous epidemics are used to highlight the challenges for future pandemic control. We consider the availability and use of data, as well as the need for correct parameterisation and calibration for different model frameworks. We discuss challenges that arise in describing and distinguishing between different interventions, within different modelling structures, and allowing both within and between host dynamics. We also highlight challenges in modelling the health economic and political aspects of interventions. Given the diversity of these challenges, a broad variety of interdisciplinary expertise is needed to address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological and social insights, and including health economics and communication skills. Addressing these challenges for the future requires strong cross-disciplinary collaboration together with close communication between scientists and policy makers.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Cattle farmer psychosocial profiles and their association with control strategies for bovine viral diarrhea

Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) is endemic in the United Kingdom and causes major economic losses. Control is largely voluntary for individual farmers and is likely to be influenced by psychosocial factors, such as altruism, trust, and psychological proximity (feeling close) to relevant “others,” such as farmers, veterinarians, the government, and their cows. These psychosocial factors (factors with both psychological and social aspects) are important determinants of how people make decisions related to their own health, many of which have not been studied in the context of infectious disease control by farmers. Farmer psychosocial profiles were investigated using multiple validated measures in an observational survey of 475 UK cattle farmers using the capability, opportunity, motivation-behavior (COM-B) framework. Farmers were clustered by their BVD control practices using latent class analysis. Farmers were split into 5 BVD control behavior classes, which were tested for associations with the psychosocial and COM-B factors using multinomial logistic regression, with doing nothing as the baseline class. Farmers who were controlling disease both for themselves and others were more likely to do something to control BVD (e.g., test, vaccinate). Farmers who did not trust other farmers, had high psychological capability (knowledge and understanding of how to control disease), and had high physical opportunity (time and money to control disease) were more likely to have a closed, separate herd and test. Farmers who did not trust other farmers were also more likely to undertake many prevention strategies with an open herd. Farmers with high automatic motivation (habits and emotions) and reflective motivation (decisions and goals) were more likely to vaccinate and test, alone or in combination with other controls. Farmers with high psychological proximity (feeling of closeness) to their veterinarian were more likely to undertake many prevention strategies in an open herd. Farmers with high psychological proximity to dairy farmers and low psychological proximity to beef farmers were more likely to keep their herd closed and separate and test or vaccinate and test. Farmers who had a lot of trust in other farmers and invested in them, rather than keeping everything for themselves, were more likely to be careful introducing new stock and test. In conclusion, farmer psychosocial factors were associated with strategies for BVD control in UK cattle farmers. Psychological proximity to veterinarians was a novel factor associated with proactive BVD control and was more important than the more extensively investigated trust. These findings highlight the importance of a close veterinarian-farmer relationship and are important for promoting effective BVD control by farmers, which has implications for successful nationwide BVD control and eradication schemes

Quantifying pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in English secondary schools

A range of measures have been implemented to control within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England, including the self-isolation of close contacts and twice weekly mass testing of secondary school pupils using lateral flow device tests (LFTs). Despite reducing transmission, isolating close contacts can lead to high levels of absences, negatively impacting pupils. To quantify pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of implemented control measures, we fit a stochastic individual-based model of secondary school infection to both swab testing data and secondary school absences data from England, and then simulate outbreaks from 31st August 2020 until 23rd May 2021. We find that the pupil-to-pupil reproduction number, Rschool, has remained below 1 on average across the study period, and that twice weekly mass testing using LFTs has helped to control pupil-to-pupil transmission. We also explore the potential benefits of alternative containment strategies, finding that a strategy of repeat testing of close contacts rather than isolation, alongside mass testing, substantially reduces absences with only a marginal increase in pupil-to-pupil transmission

An analysis of school absences in England during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background: The introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, in the UK in early 2020, resulted in the introduction of several control policies to reduce disease spread. As part of these restrictions, schools were closed to all pupils in March (except for vulnerable and key worker children), before re-opening to certain year groups in June. Finally, all school children returned to the classroom in September. Methods: Here, we analyse data on school absences in late 2020 as a result of COVID-19 infection and how that varied through time as other measures in the community were introduced. We utilise data from the Department for Education Educational Settings database and examine how pupil and teacher absences change in both primary and secondary schools. Results: Our results show that absences as a result of COVID-19 infection rose steadily following the re-opening of schools in September. Cases in teachers declined during the November lockdown, particularly in regions previously in tier 3, the highest level of control at the time. Cases in secondary school pupils increased for the first 2 weeks of the November lockdown, before decreasing. Since the introduction of the tier system, the number of absences with confirmed infection in primary schools was observed to be (markedly) lower than that in secondary schools. In December, we observed a large rise in the number of absences per school in secondary school settings in the South East and London, but such rises were not observed in other regions or in primary school settings. We conjecture that the increased transmissibility of the new variant in these regions may have contributed to this rise in secondary school cases. Finally, we observe a positive correlation between cases in the community and cases in schools in most regions, with weak evidence suggesting that cases in schools lag behind cases in the surrounding community. Conclusions: We conclude that there is no significant evidence to suggest that schools are playing a substantial role in driving spread in the community and that careful monitoring may be required as schools re-open to determine the effect associated with open schools upon community incidence

The impact of telehealth remote patient monitoring on glycemic control in type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials

Background There is a growing body of evidence to support the use of telehealth in monitoring HbA1c levels in people living with type 2 diabetes. However, the overall magnitude of effect is yet unclear due to variable results reported in existing systematic reviews. The objective of this study is to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials to create an evidence-base for the effectiveness of telehealth interventions on glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes. Methods Electronic databases including The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, HMIC, and PsychINFO were searched to identify relevant systematic reviews published between 1990 and April 2016, supplemented by references search from the relevant reviews. Two independent reviewers selected and reviewed the eligible studies. Of the 3279 references retrieved, 4 systematic reviews reporting in total 29 unique studies relevant to our review were included. Both conventional pairwise meta-analyses and network meta-analyses were performed. Results Evidence from pooling four systematic reviews found that telehealth interventions produced a small but significant improvement in HbA1c levels compared with usual care (MD: -0.55, 95% CI: -0.73 to − 0.36). The greatest effect was seen in telephone-delivered interventions, followed by Internet blood glucose monitoring system interventions and lastly interventions involving automatic transmission of SMBG using a mobile phone or a telehealth unit. Conclusion Current evidence suggests that telehealth is effective in controlling HbA1c levels in people living with type 2 diabetes. However there is need for better quality primary studies as well as systematic reviews of RCTs in order to confidently conclude on the impact of telehealth on glycemic control in type 2 diabetes

Patients' perception of using telehealth for type 2 diabetes management: a phenomenological study

BACKGROUND: There is a growing body of evidence that supports the uses of telehealth to monitor and manage people with diabetes at a distance. Despite this, the uptake of telehealth has been low. The objective of this study is to explore patients' perceptions of using telehealth for type 2 diabetes management. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with 10 patients from the NHS Newham area in London, UK. Data were collected using recorded semi-structured interviews. The interviews were transcribed verbatim and the analysis was guided by the phenomenological analysis approach. RESULTS: We identified three main themes for facilitating positive patient experience or acceptance of telehealth and these included: technology consideration, service perceptions and empowerment. All patients asserted that they were pleased with the technology and many also proclaimed that they could not see themselves being without it. Moreover, very few negative views were reported with respect to the use of telehealth. CONCLUSION: The patients' perceived telehealth as a potential to enhance their quality of life, allow them to live independently at home as well as help them take and be in more control over their own health state. The findings of this study therefore supports the use of telehealth for the routine care of people with type 2 diabetes. However, one must interpret the results with caution due to limitations identified in the sample

The CECAM Electronic Structure Library and the modular software development paradigm

First-principles electronic structure calculations are very widely used thanks to the many successful software packages available. Their traditional coding paradigm is monolithic, i.e., regardless of how modular its internal structure may be, the code is built independently from others, from the compiler up, with the exception of linear-algebra and message-passing libraries. This model has been quite successful for decades. The rapid progress in methodology, however, has resulted in an ever increasing complexity of those programs, which implies a growing amount of replication in coding and in the recurrent re-engineering needed to adapt to evolving hardware architecture. The Electronic Structure Library (\esl) was initiated by CECAM (European Centre for Atomic and Molecular Calculations) to catalyze a paradigm shift away from the monolithic model and promote modularization, with the ambition to extract common tasks from electronic structure programs and redesign them as free, open-source libraries. They include ``heavy-duty'' ones with a high degree of parallelisation, and potential for adaptation to novel hardware within them, thereby separating the sophisticated computer science aspects of performance optimization and re-engineering from the computational science done by scientists when implementing new ideas. It is a community effort, undertaken by developers of various successful codes, now facing the challenges arising in the new model. This modular paradigm will improve overall coding efficiency and enable specialists (computer scientists or computational scientists) to use their skills more effectively. It will lead to a more sustainable and dynamic evolution of software as well as lower barriers to entry for new developers

Molecular-dynamics simulations of the dynamical excitations in commensurate submonolayer films of nitrogen molecules on graphite

URL:http://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevB.54.14077 DOI:10.1103/PhysRevB.54.14077The dynamics of commensurate submonolayer solids of N2 molecules adsorbed on the basal planes of graphite have been studied using molecular-dynamics simulations. The calculations yielded the temperature dependence of the Brillouin-zone-center gap in the acoustic-phonon branches, for comparison with inelastic neutron-scattering experiments on the submonolayer solid. The calculated frequency gap was the same in submonolayer and monolayer films at low temperatures. At intermediate temperatures, the diffusive molecular motion associated with the presence of vacancies caused the gap mode to be less clearly defined in the coherent scattering function. Diffusion constants are calculated at submonolayer coverages, and temperatures up to 40 K for a population of molecules identified as mobile.This work was partially supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DMR-9314235 (H.T.) and Nos. DMR-9120199 and DMR-9423307 (L.W.B.) and by The Danish Natural Science Foundation (F.Y.H.). L.W.B. thanks the Fysisk-Kemisk Institut and the Technical University of Denmark for hospitality during the period this work was completed