Past, present and future atmospheric nitrogen deposition

Reactive nitrogen emissions into the atmosphere are increasing due to human activities, affecting nitrogen deposition to the surface and impacting the productivity of terrestrial and marine ecosystems. An atmospheric chemistry-transport model (TM4-ECPL) is here used to calculate the global distribution of total nitrogen deposition, accounting for the first time for both its inorganic and organic fractions in gaseous and particulate phases, and past and projected changes due to anthropogenic activities. The anthropogenic and biomass burning ACCMIP historical and RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios are used. Accounting for organic nitrogen (ON) primary emissions, the present-day global nitrogen atmospheric source is about 60% anthropogenic, while total N deposition increases by about 20% relative to simulations without ON primary emissions. About 20-25% of total deposited N is ON. About 10% of the emitted nitrogen oxides are deposited as ON instead of inorganic nitrogen (IN) as is considered in most global models. Almost a 3-fold increase over land (2-fold over the ocean) has been calculated for soluble N deposition due to human activities from 1850 to present. The investigated projections indicate significant changes in the regional distribution of N deposition and chemical composition, with reduced compounds gaining importance relative to oxidized ones, but very small changes in the global total flux. Sensitivity simulations quantify uncertainties due to the investigated model parameterizations of IN partitioning onto aerosols and of N chemically fixed on organics to be within 10% for the total soluble N deposition and between 25-35% for the dissolved ON deposition. Larger uncertainties are associated with N emissions

Observation- and Model-Based Estimates of Particulate Dry Nitrogen Deposition to the Oceans

© Author(s) 2017. This is an Open Access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 3.0 ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ ). Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) emissions to the atmosphere have increased significantly the deposition of nitrate (NO3−) and ammonium (NH4+) to the surface waters of the open ocean, with potential impacts on marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. Global-scale understanding of the impacts of N deposition to the oceans is reliant on our ability to produce and validate models of nitrogen emission, atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition. In this work,  ∼  2900 observations of aerosol NO3− and NH4+ concentrations, acquired from sampling aboard ships in the period 1995–2012, are used to assess the performance of modelled N concentration and deposition fields over the remote ocean. Three ocean regions (the eastern tropical North Atlantic, the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific) were selected, in which the density and distribution of observational data were considered sufficient to provide effective comparison to model products. All of these study regions are affected by transport and deposition of mineral dust, which alters the deposition of N, due to uptake of nitrogen oxides (NOx) on mineral surfaces. Assessment of the impacts of atmospheric N deposition on the ocean requires atmospheric chemical transport models to report deposition fluxes; however, these fluxes cannot be measured over the ocean. Modelling studies such as the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), which only report deposition flux, are therefore very difficult to validate for dry deposition. Here, the available observational data were averaged over a 5° × 5° grid and compared to ACCMIP dry deposition fluxes (ModDep) of oxidised N (NOy) and reduced N (NHx) and to the following parameters from the Tracer Model 4 of the Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory (TM4): ModDep for NOy, NHx and particulate NO3− and NH4+, and surface-level particulate NO3− and NH4+ concentrations. As a model ensemble, ACCMIP can be expected to be more robust than TM4, while TM4 gives access to speciated parameters (NO3− and NH4+) that are more relevant to the observed parameters and which are not available in ACCMIP. Dry deposition fluxes (CalDep) were calculated from the observed concentrations using estimates of dry deposition velocities. Model–observation ratios (RA, n), weighted by grid-cell area and number of observations, were used to assess the performance of the models. Comparison in the three study regions suggests that TM4 overestimates NO3− concentrations (RA, n =  1.4–2.9) and underestimates NH4+ concentrations (RA, n =  0.5–0.7), with spatial distributions in the tropical Atlantic and northern Indian Ocean not being reproduced by the model. In the case of NH4+ in the Indian Ocean, this discrepancy was probably due to seasonal biases in the sampling. Similar patterns were observed in the various comparisons of CalDep to ModDep (RA, n =  0.6–2.6 for NO3−, 0.6–3.1 for NH4+). Values of RA, n for NHx CalDep–ModDep comparisons were approximately double the corresponding values for NH4+ CalDep–ModDep comparisons due to the significant fraction of gas-phase NH3 deposition incorporated in the TM4 and ACCMIP NHx model products. All of the comparisons suffered due to the scarcity of observational data and the large uncertainty in dry deposition velocities used to derive deposition fluxes from concentrations. These uncertainties have been a major limitation on estimates of the flux of material to the oceans for several decades. Recommendations are made for improvements in N deposition estimation through changes in observations, modelling and model–observation comparison procedures. Validation of modelled dry deposition requires effective comparisons to observable aerosol-phase species' concentrations, and this cannot be achieved if model products only report dry deposition flux over the ocean.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

The influence of natural and anthropogenic secondary sources on the glyoxal global distribution

Glyoxal, the smallest dicarbonyl, which has recently been observed from space, is expected to provide indications on volatile organic compounds (VOC) oxidation and secondary aerosol formation in the troposphere. Glyoxal (CHOCHO) is known to be mostly of natural origin and is produced during biogenic VOC oxidation. However, a number of anthropogenically emitted hydrocarbons, like acetylene and aromatics, have been positively identified as CHOCHO precursors. The present study investigates the contribution of pollution to the CHOCHO levels by taking into account the secondary chemical formation of CHOCHO from precursors emitted from biogenic, anthropogenic and biomass burning sources. The impact of potential primary land emissions of CHOCHO is also investigated. A global 3-dimensional chemistry transport model of the troposphere (TM4-ECPL) able to simulate the gas phase chemistry coupled with all major aerosol components is used. <br><br> The secondary anthropogenic contribution from fossil fuel and industrial VOCs emissions oxidation to the CHOCHO columns is found to reach 20–70% in the industrialized areas of the Northern Hemisphere and 3–20% in the tropics. This secondary CHOCHO source is on average three times larger than that from oxidation of VOCs from biomass burning sources. The chemical production of CHOCHO is calculated to equal to about 56 Tg y<sup>−1</sup> with 70% being produced from biogenic hydrocarbons oxidation, 17% from acetylene, 11% from aromatic chemistry and 2% from ethene and propene. CHOCHO is destroyed in the troposphere primarily by reaction with OH radicals (23%) and by photolysis (63%), but it is also removed from the atmosphere through wet (8%) and dry deposition (6%). Potential formation of secondary organic aerosol through CHOCHO losses on/in aerosols and clouds is neglected here due to the significant uncertainties associated with the underlying chemistry. The global annual mean CHOCHO burden and lifetime in the model domain are estimated to be 0.02 Tg (equal to the global burden seen by SCIAMACHY over land for the year 2005) and about 3 h, respectively. The model results are compared with satellite observations of CHOCHO columns. When accounting only for the secondary sources of CHOCHO in the model, the model underestimates CHOCHO columns observed by satellites. This is attributed to an overestimate of CHOCHO sinks or a missing global source of about 20 Tg y<sup>−1</sup>. Using the current primary emissions of CHOCHO from biomass burning together with the anthropogenic combustion sources of about 7 Tg y<sup>−1</sup> leads to an overestimate by the model over hot spot areas

Reviews and syntheses: the GESAMP atmospheric iron deposition model intercomparison study

This work reports on the current status of the global modeling of iron (Fe) deposition fluxes and atmospheric concentrations and the analyses of the differences between models, as well as between models and observations. A total of four global 3-D chemistry transport (CTMs) and general circulation (GCMs) models participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of the United Nations Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection (GESAMP) Working Group 38, The Atmospheric Input of Chemicals to the Ocean. The global total Fe (TFe) emission strength in the models is equal to  ∼ 72Tg Fe yr−1 (38–134Tg Fe yr−1) from mineral dust sources and around 2.1Tg Fe yr−1 (1.8–2.7Tg Fe yr−1) from combustion processes (the sum of anthropogenic combustion/biomass burning and wildfires). The mean global labile Fe (LFe) source strength in the models, considering both the primary emissions and the atmospheric processing, is calculated to be 0.7 (±0.3)Tg Fe yr−1, accounting for both mineral dust and combustion aerosols. The mean global deposition fluxes into the global ocean are estimated to be in the range of 10–30 and 0.2–0.4Tg Fe yr−1 for TFe and LFe, respectively, which roughly corresponds to a respective 15 and 0.3Tg Fe yr−1 for the multi-model ensemble model mean. The model intercomparison analysis indicates that the representation of the atmospheric Fe cycle varies among models, in terms of both the magnitude of natural and combustion Fe emissions as well as the complexity of atmospheric processing parameterizations of Fe-containing aerosols. The model comparison with aerosol Fe observations over oceanic regions indicates that most models overestimate surface level TFe mass concentrations near dust source regions and tend to underestimate the low concentrations observed in remote ocean regions. All models are able to simulate the tendency of higher Fe concentrations near and downwind from the dust source regions, with the mean normalized bias for the Northern Hemisphere ( ∼ 14), larger than that of the Southern Hemisphere ( ∼ 2.4) for the ensemble model mean. This model intercomparison and model–observation comparison study reveals two critical issues in LFe simulations that require further exploration: (1) the Fe-containing aerosol size distribution and (2) the relative contribution of dust and combustion sources of Fe to labile Fe in atmospheric aerosols over the remote oceanic regions

Multi-model evaluation of short-lived pollutant distributions over East Asia during summer 2008

The ability of seven state of the art chemistry-aerosol models to reproduce distributions of tropospheric ozone and its precursors, as well as aerosols over eastern Asia in summer 2008 is evaluated. The study focuses on the performance of models used to assess impacts of pollutants on climate and air quality as part of the EU ECLIPSE project. Models, run using the same ECLIPSE emissions, are compared over different spatial scales to in-situ surface, vertical profile and satellite data. Several rather clear biases are found between model results and observations including overestimation of ozone at rural locations downwind of the main emission regions in China as well as downwind over the Pacific. Several models produce too much ozone over polluted regions which is then transported downwind. Analysis points to different factors related to the ability of models to simulate VOC limited regimes over polluted regions and NOx limited regimes downwind. This may also be linked to biases compared to satellite NO2 indicating overestimation of NO2 over and to the north of the northern China Plain emission region. On the other hand, model NO2 is too low to the south and east of this region and over Korean/Japan. Overestimation of ozone is linked to systematic underestimation of CO particularly at rural sites and downwind of the main Chinese emission regions. This is likely to be due to enhanced destruction of CO by OH. Overestimation of Asian ozone and its transport downwind implies that radiative forcing from this source may be overestimated. Model-observation discrepancies over Beijing do not appear to be due to emission controls linked to the Olympic Games in summer 2008. With regard to aerosols, most models reproduce the satellite-derived AOD patterns over eastern China. Our study nevertheless reveals an overestimation of ECLIPSE model-mean surface BC and sulphate aerosols in urban China in summer 2008. The effect of the short-term emission mitigation in Beijing is too weak to explain the differences between the models. Our results rather point to an overestimation of SO2 emissions, in particular, close to the surface in Chinese urban areas. However, we also identify a clear underestimation of aerosol concentrations over northern India, suggesting that the rapid recent growth of emissions in India, as well as their spatial extension, is underestimated in emission inventories. Model deficiencies in the representation of pollution accumulation due to the Indian monsoon may also be playing a role. Comparison with vertical aerosol lidar measurements highlights a general underestimation of scattering aerosols in the boundary layer associated with overestimation in the free troposphere pointing to modeled aerosol lifetimes that are too long. This is likely linked to a too strong vertical transport and/or insufficient deposition efficiency during transport or export from the boundary layer, rather than chemical processing (in the case of sulphate aerosols). Underestimation of sulphate in the boundary layer implies potentially large errors in simulated aerosol-cloud interactions, via impacts on boundary-layer clouds. This evaluation has important implications for accurate assessment of air pollutants on regional air quality and global climate based on global model calculations. Ideally, models should be run at higher resolution over source regions to better simulate urban-rural pollutant gradients/chemical regimes, and also to better resolve pollutant processing and loss by wet deposition as well as vertical transport. Discrepancies in vertical distributions requires further quantification and improvement since this is a key factor in the determination of radiative forcing from short-lived pollutants

Understanding the nature of atmospheric acid processing of mineral dusts in supplying bioavailable phosphorus to the oceans

Acidification of airborne dust particles can dramatically increase the amount of bioavailable phosphorus (P) deposited on the surface ocean. Experiments were conducted to simulate atmospheric processes and determine the dissolution behaviour of phosphorus compounds in dust and dust precursors oils. Acid dissolution occurs rapidly (seconds to minutes) and is controlled by the amount of H + ions present. For H + 10-4 mol per gram of dust, the amount of phosphorus (and Ca) released follows a power law dependent on the amount of H + consumed until all inorganic phosphorus minerals are exhausted and the final pH remains acidic. Once dissolved, phosphorus will stay in solution due to slow precipitation kinetics. Dissolution of apatite-P, the major mineral phase in dust (79-96%), occurs whether CaCO 3 is present or not, though the increase in dissolved phosphorus is greater if CaCO 3 is absent or if the particles are externally mixed. The system was modelled adequately as a simple mixture of apatite-P and calcite. Phosphorus dissolves readily by acid processes in the atmosphere in contrast to iron, which dissolves slower and is subject to re-precipitation at cloud water pH. We show that acidification can increase bioavailable phosphorus deposition over large areas of the globe, and may explain much of the previously observed patterns of variability in leachable phosphorus in oceanic areas where primary productivity is limited by this nutrient (e.g. Mediterranean)

Observation- and model-based estimates of particulate dry nitrogen deposition to the oceans

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) emissions to the atmosphere have increased significantly the deposition of nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) to the surface waters of the open ocean, with potential impacts on marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. Global-scale understanding of the impacts of N deposition to the oceans is reliant on our ability to produce and validate models of nitrogen emission, atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition. In this work, ~2900 observations of aerosol NO3- and NH4+ concentrations, acquired from sampling aboard ships in the period 1995 - 2012, are used to assess the performance of modelled N concentration and deposition fields over the remote ocean. Three ocean regions (the eastern tropical North Atlantic, the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific) were selected, in which the density and distribution of observational data were considered sufficient to provide effective comparison to model products. All of these study regions are affected by transport and deposition of mineral dust, which alters the deposition of N, due to uptake of nitrogen oxides (NOx) on mineral surfaces. Assessment of the impacts of atmospheric N deposition on the ocean requires atmospheric chemical transport models to report deposition fluxes, however these fluxes cannot be measured over the ocean. Modelling studies such as the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), which only report deposition flux are therefore very difficult to validate for dry deposition. Here the available observational data were averaged over a 5° x 5° grid and compared to ACCMIP dry deposition fluxes (ModDep) of oxidised N (NOy) and reduced N (NHx) and to the following parameters from the TM4-ECPL (TM4) model: ModDep for NOy, NHx and particulate NO3- and NH4+, and surface-level particulate NO3- and NH4+ concentrations. As a model ensemble, ACCMIP can be expected to be more robust than TM4, while TM4 gives access to speciated parameters (NO3- and NH4+) that are more relevant to the observed parameters and which are not available in ACCMIP. Dry deposition fluxes (CalDep) were calculated from the observed concentrations using estimates of dry deposition velocities. Model – observation ratios, weighted by grid-cell area and numbers of observations, (RA,n) were used to assess the performance of the models. Comparison in the three study regions suggests that TM4 over-estimates NO3- concentrations (RA,n = 1.4 – 2.9) and under-estimates NH4+ concentrations (RA,n = 0.5 – 0.7), with spatial distributions in the tropical Atlantic and northern Indian Ocean not being reproduced by the model. In the case of NH4+ in the Indian Ocean, this discrepancy was probably due to seasonal biases in the sampling. Similar patterns were observed in the various comparisons of CalDep to ModDep (RA,n = 0.6 – 2.6 for NO3-, 0.6 – 3.1 for NH4+). Values of RA,n for NHx CalDep - ModDep comparisons were approximately double the corresponding values for NH4+ CalDep - ModDep comparisons due to the significant fraction of gas-phase NH3 deposition incorporated in the TM4 and ACCMIP NHx model products. All of the comparisons suffered due to the scarcity of observational data and the large uncertainty in dry deposition velocities used to derive deposition fluxes from concentrations. These uncertainties have been a major limitation on estimates of the flux of material to the oceans for several decades. Recommendations are made for improvements in N deposition estimation through changes in observations, modelling and model – observation comparison procedures. Validation of modelled dry deposition requires effective comparisons to observable aerosol-phase species concentrations and this cannot be achieved if model products only report dry deposition flux over the ocean

EC-Earth3-AerChem: A global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model, describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and outline the new features compared with the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under preindustrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the preindustrial control simulation is on average -0.09 W m-2 with a standard deviation due to interannual variability of 0.25 W m-2, showing no significant drift. The global surface air temperature in the simulation is on average 14.08 ∼ C with an interannual standard deviation of 0.17 ∼ C, exhibiting a small drift of 0.015 ± 0.005 ∼ C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 ∼ C, and its transient climate response is estimated at 2.1 ∼ C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread across ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the surface air temperature climatology for 1995-2014 has an average bias of -0.86 ± 0.05 ∼ C with a standard deviation across ensemble members of 0.35 ∼ C in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.29 ± 0.02 ∼ C with a corresponding standard deviation of 0.05 ∼ C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant effects on the global climate from the second half of the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091-2100) of 4.9 ∼ C above the preindustrial mean. A 0.5 ∼ C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 ∼ C