Alternative Methods of Marketing South Dakota Wheat

Wheat growers like other fanners speculate every time they plant or store a grain crop. Each year foreign demand, legislation, weather and other price influences cause market fluctuations which further aggravate the speculative situation. This problem is common among producers of hard red spring and winter wheat. Historically, farmers have marketed most of their grain during harvest season. The harvest season usually offers the crop year\u27s low price for wheat.1 Despite this, farmers continue to deliver grain at harvest time. One might question; is this the only time to market grain? There was a time when grain buyers in the Midwest area used the futures market extensively to protect their marketing margin against price changes in the interval before 4elivery to a subsequent buyer. Historical data developed by studies conducted at South Dakota State University Economics Department have revealed that corn oats and soybeans have been hedged successfully on the futures market by some farmers and elevator managers. Futures contracts for the above grains can be sold the year around on the commodity exchanges. Selected examples included: (1) making a preharvest sale before the crop is planted or while the crop is growing; and (2) when harvest is completed hedge the grain in storage while anticipating a storage payment. This thesis is devoted to investigating alternative methods for marketing hard red spring and winter wheat most of which is usually sold or stored during the harvest period. This objective will be pursued by analyzing the cash to future price relationships for the various protein percent levels of wheat traded on the commodity exchanges. Emphasis will be placed on analyzing the use of futures markets to attain a maximum average price for wheat while incurring minimum speculation before the crop is planted, while the crop is growing or held in storage. Further analysis will be devoted to determining the most favorable time periods (if any) to contract and close out a hedge for wheat on the futures market

Housing conditions affect rat responses to two types of ambiguity in a reward-reward discrimination cognitive bias task

Decision-making under ambiguity in cognitive bias tasks is a promising new indicator of affective valence in animals. Rat studies support the hypothesis that animals in a negative affective state evaluate ambiguous cues negatively. Prior automated operant go/go judgement bias tasks have involved training rats that an auditory cue of one frequency predicts a Reward and a cue of a different frequency predicts a Punisher (RP task), and then measuring whether ambiguous cues of intermediate frequency are judged as predicting reward ('optimism') or punishment ('pessimism'). We investigated whether an automated Reward-Reward (RR) task yielded similar results to, and was faster to train than, RP tasks. We also introduced a new ambiguity test (simultaneous presentation of the two training cues) alongside the standard single ambiguous cue test. Half of the rats experienced an unpredictable housing treatment (UHT) designed to induce a negative state. Control rats were relatively 'pessimistic', whilst UHT rats were quicker, but no less accurate, in their responses in the RR test, and showed less anxiety-like behaviour in independent tests. A possible reason for these findings is that rats adapted to and were stimulated by UHT, whilst control rats in a predictable environment were more sensitive to novelty and change. Responses in the new ambiguity test correlated positively with those in single ambiguous cue tests, and may provide a measure of attention bias. The RR task was quicker to train than previous automated RP tasks. Together, they could be used to disentangle how reward and punishment processes underpin affect-induced cognitive biases. © 2014 The Authors

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Partitioning the Heritability of Tourette Syndrome and Obsessive Compulsive Disorder Reveals Differences in Genetic Architecture

The direct estimation of heritability from genome-wide common variant data as implemented in the program Genome-wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA) has provided a means to quantify heritability attributable to all interrogated variants. We have quantified the variance in liability to disease explained

Bone marrow transplantation and approaches to avoid graft-versus-host disease (GVHD)

Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) offers promise for the treatment of haematological and immune disorders, solid tumours, and as a tolerance inducing regimen for organ transplantation. Allogeneic HSCTs engraftment requires immunosuppression and the anti-tumour effects are dependent upon the immune effector cells that are contained within or generated from the donor graft. However, significant toxicities currently limit its efficacy. These problems include: (i) graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) in which donor T cells attack the recipient resulting in multi-organ attack and morbidity, (ii) a profound period of immune deficiency following HSCT, and (iii) donor graft rejection. Currently available methods to prevent or treat GVHD with systemic immunosuppression can lead to impaired immune recovery, increased opportunistic infections, and higher relapse rates. This review will provide an overview of GVHD pathophysiology and discuss the roles of various cells, pathways, and factors in the GVHD generation process and in the preservation of graft-versus-tumour effects. Variables that need to be taken into consideration in attempting to extrapolate preclinical results to the clinical paradigm will be highlighted

Proposal for a multidimensional staging system for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

The severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is currently assessed using a single physiological measurement, the forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1). COPD, however, has complex effects on other aspects of respiratory function, and in many patients is associated with important systemic changes. We hypothesized that a multidimensional staging system for COPD could provide a more complete assessment of the disease's impact. We considered over 40 potential staging variables, evaluating them according to sensitivity to change, measured reproducibly, independence of the information they provide and prognostic value. We finally selected three: FEV 1 (including arterial blood gas measurements when FEV 1 falls below 35% predicted), Medical Research Council dyspnea scale and body mass index (BMI). Each measure correlates independently with prognosis in COPD, is supported by a significant body of literature and serves as a surrogate for other potentially important variables. We then used principal components analysis (PCA) to determine the degree of association between 30 of the potential variables measured in 813 stable COPD patients. Using PCA, six groups of measurements defined independent categories of patient information: pulmonary function (including FEV 1), symptoms of cough and sputum, dyspnea, health status, bronchodilator reversibility and BMI. These include the three principal variables selected for the staging system. Although the staging boundaries were based on existing literature, they have proven useful in predicting survival. We conclude that a multidimensional grading system is useful to assess the impact of COPD