Enhanced climate instability in the North Atlantic and southern Europe during the Last Interglacial.

Considerable ambiguity remains over the extent and nature of millennial/centennial-scale climate instability during the Last Interglacial (LIG). Here we analyse marine and terrestrial proxies from a deep-sea sediment sequence on the Portuguese Margin and combine results with an intensively dated Italian speleothem record and climate-model experiments. The strongest expression of climate variability occurred during the transitions into and out of the LIG. Our records also document a series of multi-centennial intra-interglacial arid events in southern Europe, coherent with cold water-mass expansions in the North Atlantic. The spatial and temporal fingerprints of these changes indicate a reorganization of ocean surface circulation, consistent with low-intensity disruptions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The amplitude of this LIG variability is greater than that observed in Holocene records. Episodic Greenland ice melt and runoff as a result of excess warmth may have contributed to AMOC weakening and increased climate instability throughout the LIG

Enhanced climate instability in the North Atlantic and southern Europe during the Last Interglacial

Considerable ambiguity remains over the extent and nature of millennial/centennial-scale climate instability during the Last Interglacial (LIG). Here we analyse marine and terrestrial proxies from a deep-sea sediment sequence on the Portuguese Margin and combine results with an intensively dated Italian speleothem record and climate-model experiments. The strongest expression of climate variability occurred during the transitions into and out of the LIG. Our records also document a series of multi-centennial intra-interglacial arid events in southern Europe, coherent with cold water-mass expansions in the North Atlantic. The spatial and temporal fingerprints of these changes indicate a reorganization of ocean surface circulation, consistent with low-intensity disruptions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The amplitude of this LIG variability is greater than that observed in Holocene records. Episodic Greenland ice melt and runoff as a result of excess warmth may have contributed to AMOC weakening and increased climate instability throughout the LIG

Interglacials of the last 800,000 years

Interglacials, including the present (Holocene) period, are warm, low land ice extent (high sea level), end‐members of glacial cycles. Based on a sea level definition, we identify eleven interglacials in the last 800,000 years, a result that is robust to alternative definitions. Data compilations suggest that despite spatial heterogeneity, Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5e (last interglacial) and 11c (~400 ka ago) were globally strong (warm), while MIS 13a (~500 ka ago) was cool at many locations. A step change in strength of interglacials at 450 ka is apparent only in atmospheric CO2 and in Antarctic and deep ocean temperature. The onset of an interglacial (glacial termination) seems to require a reducing precession parameter (increasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation), but this condition alone is insufficient. Terminations involve rapid, nonlinear, reactions of ice volume, CO2, and temperature to external astronomical forcing. The precise timing of events may be modulated by millennial‐scale climate change that can lead to a contrasting timing of maximum interglacial intensity in each hemisphere. A variety of temporal trends is observed, such that maxima in the main records are observed either early or late in different interglacials. The end of an interglacial (glacial inception) is a slower process involving a global sequence of changes. Interglacials have been typically 10-30 ka long. The combination of minimal reduction in northern summer insolation over the next few orbital cycles, owing to low eccentricity, and high atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations implies that the next glacial inception is many tens of millennia in the future

Interglacials of the last 800,000 years

Interglacials, including the present (Holocene) period, are warm, low land ice extent (high sea level), end-members of glacial cycles. Based on a sea level definition, we identify eleven interglacials in the last 800,000 years, a result that is robust to alternative definitions. Data compilations suggest that despite spatial heterogeneity, Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5e (last interglacial) and 11c (~400 ka ago) were globally strong (warm), while MIS 13a (~500 ka ago) was cool at many locations. A step change in strength of interglacials at 450 ka is apparent only in atmospheric CO$_{2}$ and in Antarctic and deep ocean temperature. The onset of an interglacial (glacial termination) seems to require a reducing precession parameter (increasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation), but this condition alone is insufficient. Terminations involve rapid, nonlinear, reactions of ice volume, CO$_{2}$, and temperature to external astronomical forcing. The precise timing of events may be modulated by millennial-scale climate change that can lead to a contrasting timing of maximum interglacial intensity in each hemisphere. A variety of temporal trends is observed, such that maxima in the main records are observed either early or late in different interglacials. The end of an interglacial (glacial inception) is a slower process involving a global sequence of changes. Interglacials have been typically 10–30 ka long. The combination of minimal reduction in northern summer insolation over the next few orbital cycles, owing to low eccentricity, and high atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations implies that the next glacial inception is many tens of millennia in the future.This paper arose as a result of a succession of workshops of the Past Interglacials Group (PIGS), sponsored by the Past Global Changes Project (PAGES). The authors acknowledge the contributions of all participants at those workshops, of whom the listed authors are only a subset. Numerous funding agencies have contributed to the work of this paper including NSF (USA), NERC and The Royal Society (UK), F.R.S –FNRS (Belgium), and SNF (Switzerland). Most data described in this paper are available through relevant data repositories, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data and www.pangaea.de in particular. In addition, the datasets from which Tables 2 and 3 were derived have been compiled into a spreadsheet as a supplement to this paper. Insolation data for Figure 5 can be calculated using programs available at ftp://ftp.elic.ucl.ac.be/berger/berger78/ and ftp://ftp.elic.ucl.ac.be/berger/ellipticintegrals/.  This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015RG00048

Ensemble and fuzzy techniques applied to imbalanced traffic congestion datasets a comparative study

Class imbalance is among the most persistent complications which may confront the traditional supervised learning task in real-world applications. Among the different kind of classification problems that have been studied in the literature, the imbalanced ones, particularly those that represents real-world problems, have attracted the interest of many researchers in recent years. In order to face this problems, different approaches have been used or proposed in the literature, between then, soft computing and ensemble techniques. In this work, ensembles and fuzzy techniques have been applied to real-world traffic datasets in order to study their performance in imbalanced real-world scenarios. KEEL platform is used to carried out this study. The results show that different ensemble techniques obtain the best results in the proposed datasets. Document type: Part of book or chapter of boo

Multi-data study to reconstitute climate changes since 20,000 years in a coastal environment: the Loch Sunart (NW Scotland).

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Correlation of a characteristic reector to a Turritella layer in two lochs of Scotland and a Bay in south Brittany

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Climatically driven impacts on sedimentation processes in the bay of Quiberon [south Brittany, France) over the last 10,000 years

International audienceThe Bay of Quiberon (NW France), which is protected by the Quiberon Peninsula, provides well-preserved sedimentary archives for high-resolution reconstruction of Holocene climate variability. Very-high-resolution seismic profiles were obtained from two Seistec boomer seismic campaigns conducted in the bay. The seismic surveys reveal the deposition of five distinct sedimentary units. This succession is correlated with radiocarbon-dated sediments sampled in a long CASQ core (MD08-3204CQ). The analysis of the sediments shows significant changes in grain size, indicating a complex series of palaeo-climate events dated at 8800, 8600, 4270, 3860, 2470 and 1060 cal. yr BP. These may be correlated with millennial timescale climate variability corresponding to the phases of Holocene rapid climate changes (RCCs), associated with negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and usually characterized by weaker winter storms. On the contrary, periods between RCCs are characterized by the predominance of westerly winds and stormy conditions for Brittany (i.e. positive NAO). However, only storm events occurring during the RCCs have been preserved in the Bay of Quiberon. This paper aims to reconstruct the Holocene sedimentary infill of the bay, highlighting the role of episodic acceleration phases of the sea-level rise on the preservation of sedimentary archives. Thus, the Bay of Quiberon provides substantially a complete sedimentation record of the last 10,000 years characterized by a series of complex palaeo-environmental changes

First pollen analyses combinated to foraminifera assemblages, a key to follow the climatic changes in a fjordic environment : the loch Sunart (NW Scotland).

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