Strategic planning of biomass and bioenergy technologies

Il dimensionamento di sistemi energetici sostenibili e rispettosi dell'ambiente è una sfida fondamentale che deve essere affrontata dalle nazioni di tutto il mondo. Questa sfida è particolarmente rilevante nei paesi in via di sviluppo, in quanto vi sono aree remote ancora non elettrificate, vi è una eccessiva dipendenza da fonti convenzionali di energia, si registra una carenza di risorse finanziarie e non sono sviluppate ed implementate adeguate politiche e regolamentazioni. L'obiettivo di questa tesi è lo sviluppo di una metodologia per la pianificazione strategica delle tecnologie basate su biomasse e bioenergie in genere, nei paesi in via di sviluppo. L'approccio seguito è quello di iniziare da un approccio generale e poi passare ad uno specifico contesto di applicazione, che nel caso in esame è la Colombia. Le metodologie sviluppate ed applicate nella tesi sono relative a quattro aree principali. In primo luogo, viene sviluppato un metodo per stimare l’attuale potenziale energetico della biomassa e la sua incertezza a livello nazionale, per tenere conto del fatto che la disponibilità e la qualità dei dati possono essere limitati. A questo scopo, si propone un approccio focalizzato sul tipo di risorsa e bottom-up, con analisi statistica che utilizza un algoritmo Monte Carlo. In secondo luogo, viene sviluppato un metodo per stimare il futuro potenziale energetico della biomassa e il cambiamento di uso del suolo, per paesi il cui mercato nazionale non influenza i mercati internazionali. Il metodo proposto è una combinazione di approcci focalizzati sul tipo di risorsa e guidati dalla domanda, in cui l'energia potenziale della biomassa è influenzato dalla domanda interna, dall’uso del suolo, dall'economia, dalla macroeconomia e dall'uso di biocarburanti globale. In terzo luogo, la tesi propone un metodo per tracciare la roadmap per l’utilizzo di tecnologie energetiche, adattato alle condizioni dei paesi in via di sviluppo, e una nuova strategia per costruire il consenso sulla base del metodo Delphi. Questi strumenti sono impiegati per la definizione di un piano per implementare tecnologie bioenergetiche sostenibili in Colombia fino al 2030. Il piano è costituito da una serie di obiettivi a lungo termine, di tappe, di barriere e di “azioni” individuate da più di 30 esperti per le diverse aree tecnologiche. In quarto luogo, viene sviluppato un modello generale di simulazione per valutare gli impatti che l’implementazione a lungo termine delle tecnologie bioenergetiche potrebbe causare su domanda e richiesta di energia, emissioni e uso del territorio a livello nazionale. Il metodo combina elementi sia quantitativi sia qualitativi. L'elemento qualitativo integra i risultati della tecnologia di sviluppo della roadmap con analisi di scenari per indagare varie storie con diverse ipotesi circa le azioni di politica energetica da attuare. L'elemento quantitativo comprende quattro strumenti integrati, vale a dire il modello di sistema energetico (ESM), l'uso del suolo e un modello di mercato (LUTM), un modello economico e un modello che tiene conto del clima. Questi strumenti servono per quantificare in modo integrato gli impatti conseguenti all’attuazione di diversi scenari sul sistema energetico, le emissioni e l’uso del suolo a livello nazionale, così come i legami con l'economia e il clima. I risultati dello studio per il caso della Colombia indicano che la diffusione di tecnologie per la produzione di biometano, la generazione di energia e la cogenerazione dovrebbero essere le tecnologie sulle quali investire per il futuro, in quanto permettono di ridurre le emissioni di metano, la sostituzione dei combustibili fossili, la riduzione delle emissioni di CO2 e la massimizzazione della riduzione di gas serra per suolo incrementale utilizzato per la produzione di bioenergia.The design of sustainable, environmentally friendly energy systems which have adequate capacity is a critical challenge faced by nations across the globe. This challenge is compounded in developing countries, which contain with remote areas yet to be connected to the grid, an over- dependence on conventional sources of energy, a shortage of financial resources, and, limited supporting policies and legislation. The objective of this thesis is to develop methods for strategic planning of biomass and bioenergy technologies in developing countries. The approach followed is to start from the general and move to the specific. After a general formulation of methods, an exemplary case study of Colombia is presented. The formulated methods cover four main areas. Firstly, a method to estimate the current biomass energy potential and its uncertainty at a country level is formulated when availability and quality of data are limited. For this purpose, a bottom-up resource-focused approach with statistical analysis using a Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed. Secondly, a method to estimate the future biomass energy potential and land use change is formulated for countries with domestic markets unable to influence international markets. The proposed method is a combination of resource-focused and demand driven approaches, in which the biomass energy potential is influenced by the internal demand, land use, economics, macroeconomics and global biofuel use. Thirdly, a method for energy technology roadmapping adapted to the conditions of developing countries and a new strategy to build consensus based on the Delphi method are formulated. These tools are employed for defining a plan to deploy sustainable bioenergy technologies in Colombia until 2030. The plan consists of a set of long-term goals, milestones, barriers and action items identified by over 30 experts for different bioenergy technology areas. Fourthly, a modeling framework to evaluate the impacts that long-term deployment of bioenergy technologies might cause on the energy supply and demand, emissions and land use at a country level is proposed. The method combines a quantitative and a qualitative element. The qualitative element integrates outcomes of technology roadmapping with scenario analysis to investigate various storylines with different underlying assumptions on policy measures. The quantitative element comprises four integrated tools, namely the energy system model (ESM), the land use and trade model (LUTM), an economic model, and an external climate model. These tools quantify in an integrated manner the impacts of implementing different scenarios on the energy system, emissions and land-use at a country level as well as the linkages with the economy and climate. Results of the study case of Colombia suggest that the deployment of technologies for biomethane production, power generation & CHP should be prioritized. These technology routes avoid methane release, substitute fossil fuels, reduce CO2 emissions and maximize the GHG reductions per incremental land of bioenergy

Evaluación de la política comercial sobre el mercado del sorgo en México, 2000

La fuerte dependencia de las importaciones desde Estados Unidos y la reciente polémica en relación con los efectos negativos del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte, justifican la evaluación del impacto de políticas comerciales alternativas sobre el mercado del sorgo (Sorghum vulgare Pers) en México. Para analizar estos efectos se validó un modelo de programación cuadrática para producción, consumo e importaciones del grano de mayo de 1999 a abril de 2000. Los resultados del modelo validado indican que en 1999/2000, la producción, las importaciones y el consumo de sorgo fueron 6.1, 4.6 y 10.7 millones t. Si en 1999/2000 se hubiera permitido la importación de sólo 2.5 millones t, la producción y el consumo de sorgo hubieran sido mayor y menor en 1.4 y 0.7 millones de t, en relación con los niveles observados en ese año. Por el contrario, si se hubiera permitido el libre comercio, la producción hubiera sido 5.4 millones t, en tanto el consumo y las importaciones habrían aumentando en 0.3 y 1.0 millones t, en relación con los niveles de 1999/2000. Los beneficiados con la política de restricción de las importaciones habrían sido los productores, y los perjudicados los importadores y los consumidores. Con la política de libre comercio los beneficiados hubieran sido los consumidores e importadores, en tanto que los productores habrían resultado menos perjudicados

METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING BIOMASS ENERGY POTENTIAL AND ITS APPLICATION TO COLOMBIA

This paper presents a methodology to estimate the biomass energy potential and its associated uncertainty at a country level when quality and availability of data are limited. The current biomass energy potential in Colombia is assessed following the proposed methodology and results are compared to existing assessment studies. The proposed methodology is a bottom-up resource-focused approach with statistical analysis that uses a Monte Carlo algorithm to stochastically estimate the theoretical and the technical biomass energy potential. The paper also includes a proposed approach to quantify uncertainty combining a probabilistic propagation of uncertainty, a sensitivity analysis and a set of disaggregated sub-models to estimate reliability of predictions and reduce the associated uncertainty. Results predict a theoretical energy potential of 0.744 EJ and a technical potential of 0.059 EJ in 2010, which might account for 1.2% of the annual primary energy production (4.93 EJ)

Bioenergy technology roadmap for Colombia

The importance of using bioenergy for reducing oil dependence and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, diversifying the energy portfolio and supporting rural development is been increasingly recognized in Colombia. Against this background, this roadmap provides a long-term vision and goals to sustainably deploy biofuel and biomass technologies in Colombia until 2030. The roadmap identifies barriers to bioenergy deployment and suggests specific actions that should be taken by stakeholders to accomplish the proposed goals. It adopts a methodology from the International Energy Agency for developing technology roadmaps and combines detailed energy modeling with experienced advice from over 30 bioenergy experts from the government, academia, industry and non-governmental organizations.Based on expert feedback, the roadmap defines two visions, which are translated into two scenarios for detailed evaluation:The first vision, which is analyzed in Scenario I, focuses on new technologies and targets their deployment for the production of biomethane, biomass-based power generation and combined-heat-and-power (CHP). It fixes the current mandate for blending first generation liquid biofuels. The second vision, which is analyzed in Scenario II, combines new and traditional technologies and targets a combination of new technologies for the production of biomethane, electricity and CHP with further growth of first generation biofuels. A detailed set of goals, milestones, technologies, policies and barriers are defined for each of the two visions. Long-term goals in the bioenergy area include: Biodiesel: increase the quota mandate to B20 in 2020 and B30 in 2030. Bioethanol: a) increase the quota mandate to E20 in 2025 and b) implement an E85 fuel program in 2030. Renewable diesel: achieve a 10% contribution (on an energy basis) of renewable diesel to the total diesel fuel production in 2030. Biomethane: use 5% of biomass residues and animal waste resources nationwide to produce biomethane to be injected into the natural gas network by 2030. Power generation and CHP: a) achieve a renewable power target of 10% by 2025, b) use 5% of the biogas from animal waste and municipal water treatment plants nationwide by 2030, c) use 100% of the biogas produced in the water treatment process of biodiesel production plants by 2030, d) use 10% of the municipal landfill gas produced nationwide by 2030. A detailed energy system model for Colombia is set up and used to evaluate impacts on energy demand, supply, infrastructure and GHG emissions for Scenarios I and II and a baseline scenario that assumes no change in policies or deployment of new technologies. A land use and trade model that is linked to the energy system model is used to estimate land requirements for accomplishing the roadmap targets. A subset of Scenario II (Scenario II with expansion) considers a significant expansion in the cultivation of land beyond the Valley of the Cauca River.Results for the baseline show significant reductions in the share of bioenergy in the primary energy demand and various sectors. In contrast, Scenarios I and II are characterized by an increased share of bioenergy. In both scenarios, the bioenergy share for power generation and natural gas supply grows to about 6% in 2030. However, the share of bioenergy in the primary energy demand still declines to about 10% in 2030.Relative to the baseline, in Scenario I, bioenergy-induced emissions reduction amounts to about 11 mio tons of CO2-eq. and savings in fossil fuels of 2 mio tons of oil equivalent (TOE). The share of bioenergy in road transport remains unchanged. In Scenario I, an increase in land for producing liquid biofuels and woodfuel to 0.67 mio ha by 2030 is expected. Scenario I can accomplish long-term emission targets with available land and turns out to be the most effective scenario in terms of emission reduction per additional hectare of land. In Scenario II bioenergy-induced emissions reduction relative to the baseline amounts to about 20 mio tons of CO2-eq. and savings in fossil fuels of about 4.5 mio TOE (Scenario II with expansion: 22 mio tons of CO2-eq. and 5.4 mio TOE). The share of bioenergy in road transport grows to 24%. An increase in land for producing liquid biofuels and woodfuel to 1.1 mio ha by 2030 is expected in Scenario II (Scenario II with expansion: 1.3 mio ha). However, emissions reductions per additional hectare of land are about four to five times less compared to Scenario I. The roadmap shows that the most effective policy measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would address power generation and CHP applications, which account for more than 50% in emission reductions. The bulk of these reductions in emissions come from avoiding methane release via landfill gas and biogas from animal waste through combustion in reciprocating engines, followed by CO2 emission reduction in biomass-based power generation, and policies on first generation biofuels (i.e. bioethanol, biodiesel and renewable diesel).</p

Informe sobre la producción científica de Costa Rica en revistas iberoamericanas de acceso abierto en redalyc.org, 2005-2011

Objetivo: Proporcionar información sobre el Perfil de Producción Científica de Costa Rica en revistas del acervo redalyc.org para el periodo 2005-2011, a fin de conocer cuáles son tanto las tendencias como el comportamiento de las estrategias de comunicación y de colaboración que registran los artículos producidos por los investigadores nacionales.Método: Se estudia la producción científica de 800 revistas iberoamericanas de acceso abierto durante 2005-2011, a partir de un modelo de análisis centrado en entidades de producción y comunicación, las cuales permiten generar un Perfil de Producción Científica según los indicadores de: Producción (P), Producción en Colaboración (PC) y Colaboración (C), aplicados a un núcleo de 145,515 artículos científicos que forman parte del acervo redalyc.org.Resultados: La producción de Costa Rica asciende a 2,201 artículos que corresponden a una aportación de 1.5% sobre el total analizado, de los cuales 16% fueron publicados en revistas del extranjero, Cabe destacar que poco más de la mitad de la Producción corresponde al área de ciencias sociales (53.5%), seguida de ciencias con 41.6%, así como de las artes y humanidades y del área multidisciplinaria con 4.7 y 0.2 por ciento respectivamente. En dicho contexto, las instituciones costarricenses con mayor aporte a la producción científica son la Universidad de Costa Rica, la Universidad Nacional y la Caja Costarricense del Seguro Social; mientras que 46.8% de los trabajos firmados por autores nacionales se han realizado en colaboración, principalmente interna de tipo institucional (58.7%), y donde la participación de autores extranjeros se vincula prioritariamente con Estados Unidos, México, España y Colombia, que en conjunto representan 62.3% de la producción de Costa Rica en colaboración con otros países

Investigación en Matemáticas, Economía, Ciencias Sociales y Agronomía

Cada trabajo del libro incluye conclusiones para los interesados en las temáticas aludidas y en ellos nos enteramos de aspectos como los siguientes: - El mayor incremento del precio de los insumos como el maíz, sorgo y en menor medida desperdicio de pan, en relación con el menor crecimiento del precio del ganado en pie, dará como consecuencia un desabasto de carne bovina. - El agua es un recurso primordial en las zonas áridas y semiáridas de México, en tanto que su aporte limita la producción de la agricultura. En este estudio se observó que el precio real del agua es muy bajo en relación a otras zonas agrícolas del mundo. - Hoy en día en el país se consumen alrededor de 718 mil barriles diarios de gasolinas, un aproximado de 113.7 millones de litros, una cantidad tan grande que nuestro país se ve en la necesidad de importar cerca del 39 % de las gasolinas que consumimos. - Los jaliscienses radicados en Estados Unidos tienen una mayor capacidad de financiamiento del bienestar en la entidad, que el propio gobierno de ese estado. - México continuará basando sus finanzas públicas y su política de desarrollo económico en la extracción de combustibles fósiles (petróleo). Este modelo acelerará el deterioro y agotamiento de los recursos naturales. -La importancia de la agricultura orgánica radica en que retoma los tres ámbitos de la sustentabilidad; el ámbito ambiental, el económico y el social. - Es fundamental motivar la organización de los productores de haba para que ellos puedan captar una mayor proporción de los altos márgenes de precios que los consumidores están dispuestos a pagar. - Las condiciones del clima afectan a la producción agraria. Debido al fenómeno de cambio climático, es necesario contar con herramientas informáticas que proporcionen información climatológica para poder tomar medidas preventivas a favor de una mayor cantidad y calidad de producción. La herramienta de software permite la consulta del clima por localidades evitando la necesidad de contar con una estación meteorológica

Comparison of seven prognostic tools to identify low-risk pulmonary embolism in patients aged <50 years

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The evolution of the ventilatory ratio is a prognostic factor in mechanically ventilated COVID-19 ARDS patients

Background: Mortality due to COVID-19 is high, especially in patients requiring mechanical ventilation. The purpose of the study is to investigate associations between mortality and variables measured during the first three days of mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19 intubated at ICU admission. Methods: Multicenter, observational, cohort study includes consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to 44 Spanish ICUs between February 25 and July 31, 2020, who required intubation at ICU admission and mechanical ventilation for more than three days. We collected demographic and clinical data prior to admission; information about clinical evolution at days 1 and 3 of mechanical ventilation; and outcomes. Results: Of the 2,095 patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU, 1,118 (53.3%) were intubated at day 1 and remained under mechanical ventilation at day three. From days 1 to 3, PaO2/FiO2 increased from 115.6 [80.0-171.2] to 180.0 [135.4-227.9] mmHg and the ventilatory ratio from 1.73 [1.33-2.25] to 1.96 [1.61-2.40]. In-hospital mortality was 38.7%. A higher increase between ICU admission and day 3 in the ventilatory ratio (OR 1.04 [CI 1.01-1.07], p = 0.030) and creatinine levels (OR 1.05 [CI 1.01-1.09], p = 0.005) and a lower increase in platelet counts (OR 0.96 [CI 0.93-1.00], p = 0.037) were independently associated with a higher risk of death. No association between mortality and the PaO2/FiO2 variation was observed (OR 0.99 [CI 0.95 to 1.02], p = 0.47). Conclusions: Higher ventilatory ratio and its increase at day 3 is associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 receiving mechanical ventilation at ICU admission. No association was found in the PaO2/FiO2 variation

Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV: mapping the Milky Way, nearby galaxies, and the distant universe

We describe the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV), a project encompassing three major spectroscopic programs. The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2) is observing hundreds of thousands of Milky Way stars at high resolution and high signal-to-noise ratios in the near-infrared. The Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey is obtaining spatially resolved spectroscopy for thousands of nearby galaxies (median ). The extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) is mapping the galaxy, quasar, and neutral gas distributions between and 3.5 to constrain cosmology using baryon acoustic oscillations, redshift space distortions, and the shape of the power spectrum. Within eBOSS, we are conducting two major subprograms: the SPectroscopic IDentification of eROSITA Sources (SPIDERS), investigating X-ray AGNs and galaxies in X-ray clusters, and the Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS), obtaining spectra of variable sources. All programs use the 2.5 m Sloan Foundation Telescope at the Apache Point Observatory; observations there began in Summer 2014. APOGEE-2 also operates a second near-infrared spectrograph at the 2.5 m du Pont Telescope at Las Campanas Observatory, with observations beginning in early 2017. Observations at both facilities are scheduled to continue through 2020. In keeping with previous SDSS policy, SDSS-IV provides regularly scheduled public data releases; the first one, Data Release 13, was made available in 2016 July