De-black-boxing health AI: demonstrating reproducible machine learning computable phenotypes using the N3C-RECOVER Long COVID model in the All of Us data repository

Machine learning (ML)-driven computable phenotypes are among the most challenging to share and reproduce. Despite this difficulty, the urgent public health considerations around Long COVID make it especially important to ensure the rigor and reproducibility of Long COVID phenotyping algorithms such that they can be made available to a broad audience of researchers. As part of the NIH Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Initiative, researchers with the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) devised and trained an ML-based phenotype to identify patients highly probable to have Long COVID. Supported by RECOVER, N3C and NIH’s All of Us study partnered to reproduce the output of N3C’s trained model in the All of Us data enclave, demonstrating model extensibility in multiple environments. This case study in ML-based phenotype reuse illustrates how open-source software best practices and cross-site collaboration can de-black-box phenotyping algorithms, prevent unnecessary rework, and promote open science in informatics

NSAID use and clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients: a 38-center retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are commonly used to reduce pain, fever, and inflammation but have been associated with complications in community-acquired pneumonia. Observations shortly after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 suggested that ibuprofen was associated with an increased risk of adverse events in COVID-19 patients, but subsequent observational studies failed to demonstrate increased risk and in one case showed reduced risk associated with NSAID use. METHODS: A 38-center retrospective cohort study was performed that leveraged the harmonized, high-granularity electronic health record data of the National COVID Cohort Collaborative. A propensity-matched cohort of 19,746 COVID-19 inpatients was constructed by matching cases (treated with NSAIDs at the time of admission) and 19,746 controls (not treated) from 857,061 patients with COVID-19 available for analysis. The primary outcome of interest was COVID-19 severity in hospitalized patients, which was classified as: moderate, severe, or mortality/hospice. Secondary outcomes were acute kidney injury (AKI), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), invasive ventilation, and all-cause mortality at any time following COVID-19 diagnosis. RESULTS: Logistic regression showed that NSAID use was not associated with increased COVID-19 severity (OR: 0.57 95% CI: 0.53-0.61). Analysis of secondary outcomes using logistic regression showed that NSAID use was not associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (OR 0.51 95% CI: 0.47-0.56), invasive ventilation (OR: 0.59 95% CI: 0.55-0.64), AKI (OR: 0.67 95% CI: 0.63-0.72), or ECMO (OR: 0.51 95% CI: 0.36-0.7). In contrast, the odds ratios indicate reduced risk of these outcomes, but our quantitative bias analysis showed E-values of between 1.9 and 3.3 for these associations, indicating that comparatively weak or moderate confounder associations could explain away the observed associations. CONCLUSIONS: Study interpretation is limited by the observational design. Recording of NSAID use may have been incomplete. Our study demonstrates that NSAID use is not associated with increased COVID-19 severity, all-cause mortality, invasive ventilation, AKI, or ECMO in COVID-19 inpatients. A conservative interpretation in light of the quantitative bias analysis is that there is no evidence that NSAID use is associated with risk of increased severity or the other measured outcomes. Our results confirm and extend analogous findings in previous observational studies using a large cohort of patients drawn from 38 centers in a nationally representative multicenter database

Spatial Characterization of Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes and Breast Cancer Progression

Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) have been established as a robust prognostic biomarker in breast cancer, with emerging utility in predicting treatment response in the adjuvant and neoadjuvant settings. In this study, the role of TILs in predicting overall survival and progression-free interval was evaluated in two independent cohorts of breast cancer from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA BRCA) and the Carolina Breast Cancer Study (UNC CBCS). We utilized machine learning and computer vision algorithms to characterize TIL infiltrates in digital whole-slide images (WSIs) of breast cancer stained with hematoxylin and eosin (H&E). Multiple parameters were used to characterize the global abundance and spatial features of TIL infiltrates. Univariate and multivariate analyses show that large aggregates of peritumoral and intratumoral TILs (forests) were associated with longer survival, whereas the absence of intratumoral TILs (deserts) is associated with increased risk of recurrence. Patients with two or more high-risk spatial features were associated with significantly shorter progression-free interval (PFI). This study demonstrates the practical utility of Pathomics in evaluating the clinical significance of the abundance and spatial patterns of distribution of TIL infiltrates as important biomarkers in breast cancer

Long COVID risk and pre-COVID vaccination in an EHR-based cohort study from the RECOVER program

Long COVID, or complications arising from COVID-19 weeks after infection, has become a central concern for public health experts. The United States National Institutes of Health founded the RECOVER initiative to better understand long COVID. We used electronic health records available through the National COVID Cohort Collaborative to characterize the association between SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and long COVID diagnosis. Among patients with a COVID-19 infection between August 1, 2021 and January 31, 2022, we defined two cohorts using distinct definitions of long COVID—a clinical diagnosis (n = 47,404) or a previously described computational phenotype (n = 198,514)—to compare unvaccinated individuals to those with a complete vaccine series prior to infection. Evidence of long COVID was monitored through June or July of 2022, depending on patients’ data availability. We found that vaccination was consistently associated with lower odds and rates of long COVID clinical diagnosis and high-confidence computationally derived diagnosis after adjusting for sex, demographics, and medical history., The extent to which COVID-19 vaccination protects against long COVID is not well understood. Here, the authors use electronic health record data from the United States and find that, for people who received their vaccination prior to infection, vaccination was associated with lower incidence of long COVID

Analyses of germline variants associated with ovarian cancer survival identify functional candidates at the 1q22 and 19p12 outcome loci.

We previously identified associations with ovarian cancer outcome at five genetic loci. To identify putatively causal genetic variants and target genes, we prioritized two ovarian outcome loci (1q22 and 19p12) for further study. Bioinformatic and functional genetic analyses indicated that MEF2D and ZNF100 are targets of candidate outcome variants at 1q22 and 19p12, respectively. At 19p12, the chromatin interaction of a putative regulatory element with the ZNF100 promoter region correlated with candidate outcome variants. At 1q22, putative regulatory elements enhanced MEF2D promoter activity and haplotypes containing candidate outcome variants modulated these effects. In a public dataset, MEF2D and ZNF100 expression were both associated with ovarian cancer progression-free or overall survival time. In an extended set of 6,162 epithelial ovarian cancer patients, we found that functional candidates at the 1q22 and 19p12 loci, as well as other regional variants, were nominally associated with patient outcome; however, no associations reached our threshold for statistical significance (p<1×10-5). Larger patient numbers will be needed to convincingly identify any true associations at these loci.The OCAC Oncoarray genotyping project was funded through grants from the U.S. National Institutes of Health 2 (NIH) (CA1X01HG007491-01, U19-CA148112, R01-CA149429 and R01-CA058598); Canadian Institutes of Health 3 Research (MOP-86727) and the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund (OCRF). Funding for the iCOGS infrastructure came from: the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement n° 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175) (COGS), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10118, C1287/A 10710, C12292/A11174, C1281/A12014, C5047/A8384, C5047/A15007, C5047/A10692, C8197/A16565), the National Institutes of Health (CA128978) and Post-Cancer GWAS initiative (1U19 CA148537, 1U19 CA148065 and 1U19 CA148112 - the GAME-ON initiative), the Department of Defence (W81XWH-10-1-0341), the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer, Komen Foundation for the Cure, the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, and the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund. AUS studies (Australian Ovarian Cancer Study and the Australian Cancer Study) were funded by the U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command (DAMD17-01-1-0729), National Health & Medical Research Council of Australia (199600 and 400281), Cancer Councils of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania, Cancer Foundation of Western Australia (Multi-State Application Numbers 191, 211 and 182). The Bavarian study (BAV) was supported by ELAN Funds of the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg. The Belgian study (BEL) was funded by Nationaal Kankerplan. The BVU study was funded by Vanderbilt CTSA grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH)/National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS) (ULTR000445). The CNIO Ovarian Cancer Study (CNI) study was supported by Instituto de Salud Carlos III (PI 12/01319); Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (SAF2012). The Hawaii Ovarian Cancer Study (HAW) was supported the U.S. National Institutes of Health (R01-CA58598, N01-CN-55424 and N01-PC-67001). The Hannover-Jena Ovarian Cancer Study (HJO) study was funded by intramural funding through the Rudolf-Bartling Foundation. The Hormones and Ovarian Cancer Prediction study (HOP) was supported by US National Cancer Institute: K07-CA80668; R01CA095023; P50-CA159981; R01-CA126841; US Army Medical Research and Materiel Command: DAMD17-02-1-0669; NIH/National Center for Research Resources/General Clinical Research Center grant MO1- RR000056. The Women’s Cancer Program (LAX) was supported by the American Cancer Society Early Detection Professorship (120950-SIOP-06-258-06-COUN) and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), Grant UL1TR000124. The Mayo Clinic Case-Only Ovarian Cancer Study (MAC) and the Mayo Clinic Ovarian Cancer Case-Control Study (MAY) were funded by the National Institutes of Health (R01-CA122443, P30-CA15083, P50-CA136393); Mayo Foundation; Minnesota Ovarian Cancer Alliance; Fred C. and Katherine B. Andersen Foundation; Fraternal Order of Eagles. The MALOVA study (MAL) was funded by research grant R01- CA61107 from the National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Md; research grant 94 222 52 from the Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark; and the Mermaid I project. The North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCO) National Institutes of Health (R01-CA76016) and the Department of Defense (DAMD17-02-1-0666). The New England-based Case-Control Study of Ovarian Cancer (NEC) was supported by NIH grants R01 CA 054419-10 and P50 CA105009, and Department of Defense CDMRP grant W81XWH-10-1-0280. The University of Bergen, Haukeland University Hospital, Norway study (NOR) was funded by Helse Vest, The Norwegian Cancer Society, The Research Council of Norway. The Oregon study (ORE) was funded by the Sherie Hildreth Ovarian Cancer Research Fund and the OHSU Foundation. The Ovarian Cancer Prognosis and Lifestyle Study (OPL) was funded by National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (APP1025142) and Brisbane Women’s Club. The Danish Pelvic Mass Study (PVD) was funded by Herlev Hospitals Forskningsråd, Direktør Jacob Madsens og Hustru Olga Madsens fond, Arvid Nilssons fond, Gangsted fonden, Herlev Hospitals Forskningsråd and Danish Cancer Society. The Royal Brisbane Hospital (RBH) study was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. The Scottish Randomised Trial in Ovarian Cancer study (SRO) was funded by Cancer Research UK (C536/A13086, C536/A6689) and Imperial Experimental Cancer Research Centre (C1312/A15589). The Princess Margaret Cancer Centre study (UHN) was funded by Princess Margaret Cancer Centre Foundation-Bridge for the Cure. The Gynaecological Oncology Biobank at Westmead (WMH) is a member of the Australasian Biospecimen Network-Oncology group, funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Enabling Grants ID 310670 & ID 628903 and the Cancer Institute NSW Grants ID 12/RIG/1-17 and 15/RIG/1-16. OVCARE Gynecologic Tissue Bank and Outcomes Unit (VAN) study was funded by BC Cancer Foundation, VGH & UBC Hospital Foundation. Stuart MacGregor acknowledges funding from an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship and an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council project grant (APP1051698). Anna deFazio was funded by the University of Sydney Cancer Research Fund and the Cancer Institute NSW through the Sydney West-Translational Cancer Research Centre. Dr. Beth Y. Karlan is supported by American Cancer Society Early Detection Professorship (SIOP-06-258-01-COUN) and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), Grant UL1TR000124. Irene Orlow was supported by NCI CCSG award (P30-CA008748). GCT, PW and TO’M were funded by NHMRC Fellowships

Genome-scale screen for DNA methylation-based detection markers for ovarian cancer.

The identification of sensitive biomarkers for the detection of ovarian cancer is of high clinical relevance for early detection and/or monitoring of disease recurrence. We developed a systematic multi-step biomarker discovery and verification strategy to identify candidate DNA methylation markers for the blood-based detection of ovarian cancer

Conduct disorder and alcohol use disorder trajectories, predictors, and outcomes for Indigenous youth

Objective: The aim of this study was to identify separate and joint trajectories of conduct disorder (CD) and alcohol use disorder (AUD) DSM-IV diagnostic symptoms among American Indian and First Nation (Indigenous) youth aged 10 to 18 years, and to characterize baseline profiles and later outcomes associated with joint trajectory group membership.Method: Data were collected between 2002 and 2010 on three indigenous reservations in the northern Midwest and four Canadian reserves (N = 673). CD and substance use disorder (SUD) were measured using the DSM-IV Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children-Revised (DISC-R), administered at four time points.Results: Using group-based trajectory modeling, three CD and four AUD trajectories were found. Both had a small group with high symptoms, but the largest groups for both had no symptoms (55% and 73%, respectively). CD symptom trajectories began at age 10 years and peaked at age 14; AUD trajectories began at age 12 years and were highest from age 16 on. Eight joint trajectories were identified. Of the sample, 53% fell into the group with no CD or AUD symptoms. Compared to symptomatic groups, this group had greater caretaker warmth, positive school adjustment, less discrimination, and fewer deviant peers, and were less likely to have a caretaker with major depression at baseline. Symptomatic groups had higher odds of high school dropout, sex under the influence, and arrest at age 17 to 20 years.Conclusion: Despite significant risk factors, a large proportion of Indigenous youth had no CD-SUD symptoms over time. CD-SUD symptoms have multiple development trajectories and are related to early developmental risk and later psychosocial outcomes.Peer reviewedSociolog

Characterizing Long COVID: Deep Phenotype of a Complex Condition.

BACKGROUND: Numerous publications describe the clinical manifestations of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC or long COVID ), but they are difficult to integrate because of heterogeneous methods and the lack of a standard for denoting the many phenotypic manifestations. Patient-led studies are of particular importance for understanding the natural history of COVID-19, but integration is hampered because they often use different terms to describe the same symptom or condition. This significant disparity in patient versus clinical characterization motivated the proposed ontological approach to specifying manifestations, which will improve capture and integration of future long COVID studies. METHODS: The Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) is a widely used standard for exchange and analysis of phenotypic abnormalities in human disease but has not yet been applied to the analysis of COVID-19. FINDINGS: We identified 303 articles published before April 29, 2021, curated 59 relevant manuscripts that described clinical manifestations in 81 cohorts three weeks or more following acute COVID-19, and mapped 287 unique clinical findings to HPO terms. We present layperson synonyms and definitions that can be used to link patient self-report questionnaires to standard medical terminology. Long COVID clinical manifestations are not assessed consistently across studies, and most manifestations have been reported with a wide range of synonyms by different authors. Across at least 10 cohorts, authors reported 31 unique clinical features corresponding to HPO terms; the most commonly reported feature was Fatigue (median 45.1%) and the least commonly reported was Nausea (median 3.9%), but the reported percentages varied widely between studies. INTERPRETATION: Translating long COVID manifestations into computable HPO terms will improve analysis, data capture, and classification of long COVID patients. If researchers, clinicians, and patients share a common language, then studies can be compared/pooled more effectively. Furthermore, mapping lay terminology to HPO will help patients assist clinicians and researchers in creating phenotypic characterizations that are computationally accessible, thereby improving the stratification, diagnosis, and treatment of long COVID. FUNDING: U24TR002306; UL1TR001439; P30AG024832; GBMF4552; R01HG010067; UL1TR002535; K23HL128909; UL1TR002389; K99GM145411

Risk factors associated with post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2: an N3C and NIH RECOVER study

Background More than one-third of individuals experience post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC, which includes long-COVID). The objective is to identify risk factors associated with PASC/long-COVID diagnosis. Methods This was a retrospective case–control study including 31 health systems in the United States from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C). 8,325 individuals with PASC (defined by the presence of the International Classification of Diseases, version 10 code U09.9 or a long-COVID clinic visit) matched to 41,625 controls within the same health system and COVID index date within ± 45 days of the corresponding case's earliest COVID index date. Measurements of risk factors included demographics, comorbidities, treatment and acute characteristics related to COVID-19. Multivariable logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost were used to determine the associations between risk factors and PASC. Results Among 8,325 individuals with PASC, the majority were > 50 years of age (56.6%), female (62.8%), and non-Hispanic White (68.6%). In logistic regression, middle-age categories (40 to 69 years; OR ranging from 2.32 to 2.58), female sex (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.33–1.48), hospitalization associated with COVID-19 (OR 3.8, 95% CI 3.05–4.73), long (8–30 days, OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.31–2.17) or extended hospital stay (30 + days, OR 3.38, 95% CI 2.45–4.67), receipt of mechanical ventilation (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.18–1.74), and several comorbidities including depression (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.40–1.60), chronic lung disease (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.53–1.74), and obesity (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.16–1.3) were associated with increased likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic. Characteristics associated with a lower likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic included younger age (18 to 29 years), male sex, non-Hispanic Black race, and comorbidities such as substance abuse, cardiomyopathy, psychosis, and dementia. More doctors per capita in the county of residence was associated with an increased likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic. Our findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using a variety of analytic techniques and approaches to select controls. Conclusions This national study identified important risk factors for PASC diagnosis such as middle age, severe COVID-19 disease, and specific comorbidities. Further clinical and epidemiological research is needed to better understand underlying mechanisms and the potential role of vaccines and therapeutics in altering PASC course. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-16916-w

Identification of 12 new susceptibility loci for different histotypes of epithelial ovarian cancer.

To identify common alleles associated with different histotypes of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), we pooled data from multiple genome-wide genotyping projects totaling 25,509 EOC cases and 40,941 controls. We identified nine new susceptibility loci for different EOC histotypes: six for serous EOC histotypes (3q28, 4q32.3, 8q21.11, 10q24.33, 18q11.2 and 22q12.1), two for mucinous EOC (3q22.3 and 9q31.1) and one for endometrioid EOC (5q12.3). We then performed meta-analysis on the results for high-grade serous ovarian cancer with the results from analysis of 31,448 BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, including 3,887 mutation carriers with EOC. This identified three additional susceptibility loci at 2q13, 8q24.1 and 12q24.31. Integrated analyses of genes and regulatory biofeatures at each locus predicted candidate susceptibility genes, including OBFC1, a new candidate susceptibility gene for low-grade and borderline serous EOC