Duration Dependence and Nonparametric Heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo Study

We examine the behaviour of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) for a discrete duration model with unobserved heterogeneity and unknown duration dependence. We find that a nonparametric specification of either the duration dependence or unobserved heterogeneity, when the other feature of the hazard is known to be absent, leads to estimators that are well behaved even in modestly sized samples. In contrast, there is a large and systematic bias in the parameters of these components when both are specified nonparametrically, as well as a complementary bias in the coefficients on observed heterogeneity. Furthermore, these biases diminish very gradually as sample size increases. We find that a minor modification of the quasilikelihood that penalizes specifications with many points of support leads to a dramatic improvement.Duration model, unobserved heterogeneity, NPMLE

Greater Transparency Needed

Financial market participants would benefit from a better understanding of how the Bank of Canada sets the overnight interest rate in response to economic developments. More accurate forecasts of the Bank’s future policy choices would lead to better financial decisions and better price and wage-setting decisions, making it easier for the Bank to hit its 2 percent inflation target. Currently, the Bank’s internal model predicts a path for the overnight rate that is inconsistent with the expectations of the Bank’s Governing Council. The Bank could achieve greater transparency by publishing its own conditional forecasts of the future path of the overnight rate or, failing that, by publishing such forecasts with a six-month lag. This would enable market participants to better understand what these forecasts mean and how to use them in economic decision-making.Monetary Policy, Bank of Canada, overnight interest rate, inflation target

Determinants of left atrium thrombi in scheduled cardioversion: an ENSURE-AF study analysis

International audienceAIMS : ENSURE-AF (NCT02072434) was the largest prospective randomized clinical trial of anticoagulation for cardioversion in atrial fibrillation (AF), which also provides the largest prospective dataset for transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) prior to cardioversion. This ancillary analysis investigated determinants of TOE-detected left atrium thrombi (LAT) in patients scheduled for electrical cardioversion (ECV).METHODS AND RESULTS : The ENSURE-AF multicentre PROBE evaluation trial compared edoxaban 60 mg once daily (QD) with enoxaparin/warfarin in 2199 subjects undergoing ECV of non-valvular AF. Patients were stratified by the use of TOE, anticoagulant experience, and selected edoxaban dose. Electrical cardioversion was cancelled or deferred when TOEdetected LAT. In total, 1183 subjects were stratified to the TOE arm and LAT was reported in 91 (8.2%). In univariate analysis, age ≥75 years (26.4% vs. 16.9%, P = 0.0308), lower weight (86.5 ± 15.0 vs. 90.7 ± 18.0 kg, P = 0.0309), lower creatinine clearance (80.1 ± 30.6 vs. 93.2 ± 33.9 mL/min, P = 0.0007), heart failure (59.3% vs. 43.0%, P = 0.0029), and diuretic treatment (53.9% vs. 40.1%, P = 0.0141) were more prevalent in the LAT group. Non-significant trends were seen for higher mean CHA2DS2-VASc score (3.0 ± 1.41 vs. 2.7 ± 1.48, P = 0.0571) and more prevalent anticoagulation use prior to enrolment (60.4% vs. 50.3%, P = 0.0795) in the LAT group. In logistic regression analysis, age (P = 0.0202) and heart failure (P = 0.0064) were independently associated with LAT.CONCLUSION : Elective ECV is commonly cancelled or deferred due to TOE-detected LAT in patients with non-valvular AF. Age ≥75 years and heart failure were associated with the presence of LAT

Beth Levine in memoriam

Beth Levine was born on 7 April 1960 in Newark, New Jersey. She went to college at Brown University where she received an A.B. Magna Cum Laude, and she attended medical school at Cornell University Medical College, receiving her MD in 1986. She completed her internship and residency in Internal Medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York, and her fellowship in Infectious Diseases at The Johns Hopkins Hospital. Most recently, Beth was a Professor of Internal Medicine and Microbiology, Director of the Center for Autophagy Research, and holder of the Charles Sprague Distinguished Chair in Biomedical Science at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas. Beth died on 15 June 2020 from cancer. Beth is survived by her husband, Milton Packer, and their two children, Rachel (26 years old) and Ben (25 years old). Dr. Levine was as an international leader in the field of autophagy research. Her laboratory identified the mammalian autophagy gene BECN1/beclin 1; identified conserved mechanisms underlying the regulation of autophagy (e.g. BCL2-BECN1 complex formation, insulin-like signaling, EGFR, ERBB2/HER2 and AKT1-mediated BECN1 phosphosphorylation); and provided the first evidence that autophagy genes are important in antiviral host defense, tumor suppression, lifespan extension, apoptotic corpse clearance, metazoan development, Na,K-ATPase-regulated cell death, and the beneficial metabolic effects of exercise. She developed a potent autophagy-inducing cell permeable peptide, Tat-beclin 1, which has potential therapeutic applications in a range of diseases. She was a founding Associate Editor of the journal Autophagy and an editorial board member of Cell and Cell Host & Microbe. She has received numerous awards/honors in recognition of her scientific achievement, including: The American Cancer Society Junior Faculty Research Award (1994); election into the American Society of Clinical Investigation (2000); the Ellison Medical Foundation Senior Scholars Award in Global Infectious Diseases (2004); elected member, American Association of Physicians (2005); appointment as a Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigator (2008); Edith and Peter O’Donnell Award in Medicine (2008); elected fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science (2012); election into the National Academy of Sciences (2013); election into the Academy of Medicine, Engineering and Science of Texas (2013); the ASCI Stanley J. Korsmeyer Award (2014); Phyllis T. Bodel Women in Medicine Award, Yale University School of Medicine (2018); recipient, Barcroft Medal, Queen’s University Belfast (2018).Fil: An, Zhenyi. No especifíca;Fil: Ballabi, Andrea. No especifíca;Fil: Bennett, Lynda. No especifíca;Fil: Boya, Patricia. No especifíca;Fil: Cecconi, Francesco. No especifíca;Fil: Chiang, Wei Chung. No especifíca;Fil: Codogno, Patrice. No especifíca;Fil: Colombo, Maria Isabel. No especifíca;Fil: Cuervo, Ana Maria. No especifíca;Fil: Debnath, Jayanta. No especifíca;Fil: Deretic, Vojo. No especifíca;Fil: Dikic, Ivan. No especifíca;Fil: Dionne, Keith. No especifíca;Fil: Dong, Xiaonan. No especifíca;Fil: Elazar, Zvulun. No especifíca;Fil: Galluzzi, Lorenzo. No especifíca;Fil: Gentile, Frank. No especifíca;Fil: Griffin, Diane E.. No especifíca;Fil: Hansen, Malene. No especifíca;Fil: Hardwick, J. Marie. No especifíca;Fil: He, Congcong. No especifíca;Fil: Huang, Shu Yi. No especifíca;Fil: Hurley, James. No especifíca;Fil: Jackson, William T.. No especifíca;Fil: Jozefiak, Cindy. No especifíca;Fil: Kitsis, Richard N.. No especifíca;Fil: Klionsky, Daniel J.. No especifíca;Fil: Kroemer, Guido. No especifíca;Fil: Meijer, Alfred J.. No especifíca;Fil: Meléndez, Alicia. No especifíca;Fil: Melino, Gerry. No especifíca;Fil: Mizushima, Noboru. No especifíca;Fil: Murphy, Leon O.. No especifíca;Fil: Nixon, Ralph. No especifíca;Fil: Orvedahl, Anthony. No especifíca;Fil: Pattingre, Sophie. No especifíca;Fil: Piacentini, Mauro. No especifíca;Fil: Reggiori, Fulvio. No especifíca;Fil: Ross, Theodora. No especifíca;Fil: Rubinsztein, David C.. No especifíca;Fil: Ryan, Kevin. No especifíca;Fil: Sadoshima, Junichi. No especifíca;Fil: Schreiber, Stuart L.. No especifíca;Fil: Scott, Frederick. No especifíca;Fil: Sebti, Salwa. No especifíca;Fil: Shiloh, Michael. No especifíca;Fil: Shoji, Sanae. No especifíca;Fil: Simonsen, Anne. No especifíca;Fil: Smith, Haley. No especifíca;Fil: Sumpter, Kathryn M.. No especifíca;Fil: Thompson, Craig B.. No especifíca;Fil: Thorburn, Andrew. No especifíca;Fil: Thumm, Michael. No especifíca;Fil: Tooze, Sharon. No especifíca;Fil: Vaccaro, Maria Ines. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Bioquímica y Medicina Molecular. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad Medicina. Instituto de Bioquímica y Medicina Molecular; ArgentinaFil: Virgin, Herbert W.. No especifíca;Fil: Wang, Fei. No especifíca;Fil: White, Eileen. No especifíca;Fil: Xavier, Ramnik J.. No especifíca;Fil: Yoshimori, Tamotsu. No especifíca;Fil: Yuan, Junying. No especifíca;Fil: Yue, Zhenyu. No especifíca;Fil: Zhong, Qing. No especifíca

Molecular mechanisms of cell death: recommendations of the Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death 2018.

Over the past decade, the Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death (NCCD) has formulated guidelines for the definition and interpretation of cell death from morphological, biochemical, and functional perspectives. Since the field continues to expand and novel mechanisms that orchestrate multiple cell death pathways are unveiled, we propose an updated classification of cell death subroutines focusing on mechanistic and essential (as opposed to correlative and dispensable) aspects of the process. As we provide molecularly oriented definitions of terms including intrinsic apoptosis, extrinsic apoptosis, mitochondrial permeability transition (MPT)-driven necrosis, necroptosis, ferroptosis, pyroptosis, parthanatos, entotic cell death, NETotic cell death, lysosome-dependent cell death, autophagy-dependent cell death, immunogenic cell death, cellular senescence, and mitotic catastrophe, we discuss the utility of neologisms that refer to highly specialized instances of these processes. The mission of the NCCD is to provide a widely accepted nomenclature on cell death in support of the continued development of the field