Ocean‐Only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change

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What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (zeta) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a zeta projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of zeta change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and zeta. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the zeta change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic zeta change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.Peer reviewe

On which timescales do gas transfer velocities control North Atlantic CO2 flux variability?

The North Atlantic is an important basin for the global ocean's uptake of anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide (CO2), but the mechanisms controlling this carbon flux are not fully understood. The air-sea flux of CO2, F, is the product of a gas transfer velocity, k, the air-sea CO2 concentration gradient, ΔpCO2, and the temperature and salinity-dependent solubility coefficient, α. k is difficult to constrain, representing the dominant uncertainty in F on short (instantaneous to interannual) timescales. Previous work shows that in the North Atlantic, ΔpCO2 and k both contribute significantly to interannual F variability, but that k is unimportant for multidecadal variability. On some timescale between interannual and multidecadal, gas transfer velocity variability and its associated uncertainty become negligible. Here, we quantify this critical timescale for the first time. Using an ocean model, we determine the importance of k, ΔpCO2 and α on a range of timescales. On interannual and shorter timescales, both ΔpCO2 and k are important controls on F. In contrast, pentadal to multidecadal North Atlantic flux variability is driven almost entirely by ΔpCO2; k contributes less than 25%. Finally, we explore how accurately one can estimate North Atlantic F without a knowledge of non-seasonal k variability, finding it possible for interannual and longer timescales. These findings suggest that continued efforts to better constrain gas transfer velocities are necessary to quantify interannual variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. However, uncertainty in k variability is unlikely to limit the accuracy of estimates of longer term flux variability

Multidecadal accumulation of anthropogenic and remineralized dissolved inorganic carbon along the Extended Ellett Line in the northeast Atlantic Ocean

Marine carbonate chemistry measurements have been carried out annually since 2009 during UK research cruises along the Extended Ellett Line (EEL), a hydrographic transect in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. The EEL intersects several water masses that are key to the global thermohaline circulation, and therefore the cruises sample a region in which it is critical to monitor secular physical and biogeochemical changes. We have combined results from these EEL cruises with existing quality-controlled observational data syntheses to produce a hydrographic time series for the EEL from 1981 to 2013. This reveals multidecadal increases in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) throughout the water column, with a near-surface maximum rate of 1.80 ± 0.45 µmol kg−1 yr−1. Anthropogenic CO2 accumulation was assessed, using simultaneous changes in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and total alkalinity (TA) as proxies for the biogeochemical processes that influence DIC. The stable carbon isotope composition of DIC (δ13CDIC) was also determined and used as an independent test of our method. We calculated a volume-integrated anthropogenic CO2 accumulation rate of 2.8 ± 0.4 mg C m−3 yr−1 along the EEL, which is about double the global mean. The anthropogenic CO2 component accounts for only 31 ± 6% of the total DIC increase. The remainder is derived from increased organic matter remineralization, which we attribute to the lateral redistribution of water masses that accompanies subpolar gyre contraction. Output from a general circulation ecosystem model demonstrates that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the observations has not significantly biased our multidecadal rate of change calculations and indicates that the EEL observations have been tracking distal changes in the surrounding North Atlantic and Nordic Seas

Internal tides at Cross Seamount

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 444The R.V. Thomas G. Thompson was used to study currents in the North Pacific Ocean over Cross Seamount, a large extinct submarine volcano South of Oahu, Hawai’i. An Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) was used to measure currents over the seamount. A mathematical model for the tide was created using the data collected by the ADCP as a basis. This model was applied both to shallow and deep layers of the water column. The model generated simulated currents in good accordance with the observed flows, although some discrepancies were present. The modelled tidal function varied with depth, indicating the propagation of an internal tide through the water column

Mechanisms of ocean carbon cycle variability in the 21st Century

The ocean is an enormous and variable sink of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) for the atmosphere, and a detailed knowledge of the drivers of uptake variability is needed to predict future climate change. Here, a leading-edge ocean computer model is used to attribute 21st Century ocean carbon cycle variability to underlying causal physical, chemical, and biological mechanisms. First, North Atlantic carbon flux variability across a range of timescales is attributed to each component of the flux equation: the air-sea concentration gradient (the difference of partial pressures, ∆pCO2), the gas transfer velocity (which quantifies how environmental factors e.g. wind enhance gas exchange, k), and the solubility coefficient (which quantifies how temperature and salinity affect gas dissolution, α). Both ∆pCO2 and k are strong controls on interannual flux variability, but the longer decadal and multidecadal changes are dominated by just ∆pCO2. Next, the drivers of North Atlantic Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) inventory changes are identified. Interannual variations in temperature and preformed alkalinity cause almost all the basin’s year-to-year DIC fluctuations. Decadal variability is attributed to saturation and anthropogenic carbon forcing. Multidecadal cycles and the trend up to the year 2100 are dominated by anthropogenic carbon uptake. Finally, the global DIC inventory variance is quantified, highlighting Pacific up-welling of remineralised carbon as the main driver of interannual variability. Anthropogenic carbon is the largest single contributor to variability on longer timescales up to 2100, with other processes playing secondary or negligible roles

Remotely induced warming of Antarctic Bottom Water in the eastern Weddell gyre

Four repeat hydrographic sections across the eastern Weddell gyre at 30°E reveal a warming (by ~0.1°C) and lightening (by ~0.02–0.03 kg m−3) of the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) entering the gyre from the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean between the mid-1990s and late 2000s. Historical hydrographic and altimetric measurements in the region suggest that the most likely explanation for the change is increased entrainment of warmer mid-depth Circumpolar Deep Water by cascading shelf water plumes close to Cape Darnley, where the Indian-sourced AABW entering the Weddell gyre from the east is ventilated. This change in entrainment is associated with a concurrent southward shift of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current's (ACC) southern boundary in the region. This mechanism of AABW warming may affect wherever the ACC flows close to Antarctica

Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and related worldwide sea-level change

The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content (Δ OHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level (Δ ζ). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling CO 2. Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution of Δ OHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affects Δ ζ in the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-mean Δ ζ and Δ OHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs