Global patterns of woody residence time and its influence on model simulation of aboveground biomass

Woody residence time (τw) is an important parameter that expresses the balance between mature forest recruitment/growth and mortality. Using field data collected from the literature, this study explored the global forest τw and investigated its influence on model simulations of aboveground biomass (AGB) at a global scale. Specifically, τw was found to be related to forest age, annual temperature, and precipitation at a global scale, but its determinants were different among various plant function types. The estimated global forest τw based on the filed data showed large spatial heterogeneity, which plays an important role in model simulation of AGB by a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). The τw could change the resulting AGB in tenfold based on a site-level test using the Monte Carlo method. At the global level, different parameterization schemes of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator using the estimated τw resulted in a twofold change in the AGB simulation for 2100. Our results highlight the influences of various biotic and abiotic variables on forest τw. The estimation of τw in our study may help improve the model simulations and reduce the parameter\u27s uncertainty over the projection of future AGB in the current DGVM or Earth System Models. A clearer understanding of the responses of τw to climate change and the corresponding sophisticated description of forest growth/mortality in model structure is also needed for the improvement of carbon stock prediction in future studies

Remote monitoring of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis using wearable sensors detects differences in disease progression and survival: a prospective cohort study

Background: There is an urgent need for objective and sensitive measures to quantify clinical disease progression and gauge the response to treatment in clinical trials for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Here, we evaluate the ability of an accelerometer-derived outcome to detect differential clinical disease progression and assess its longitudinal associations with overall survival in patients with ALS. Methods: Patients with ALS wore an accelerometer on the hip for 3–7 days, every 2–3 months during a multi-year observation period. An accelerometer-derived outcome, the Vertical Movement Index (VMI), was calculated, together with predicted disease progression rates, and jointly analysed with overall survival. The clinical utility of VMI was evaluated using comparisons to patient-reported functionality, while the impact of various monitoring schemes on empirical power was explored through simulations. Findings: In total, 97 patients (70.1% male) wore the accelerometer for 1995 days, for a total of 27,701 h. The VMI was highly discriminatory for predicted disease progression rates, revealing faster rates of decline in patients with a worse predicted prognosis compared to those with a better predicted prognosis (p < 0.0001). The VMI was strongly associated with the hazard for death (HR 0.20, 95% CI: 0.09–0.44, p < 0.0001), where a decrease of 0.19–0.41 unit was associated with reduced ambulatory status. Recommendations for future studies using accelerometery are provided. Interpretation: The results serve as motivation to incorporate accelerometer-derived outcomes in clinical trials, which is essential for further validation of these markers to meaningful endpoints. Funding: Stichting ALS Nederland (TRICALS-Reactive-II)

A comparison between bioelectrical impedance analysis and air-displacement plethysmography in assessing fat-free mass in patients with motor neurone diseases: a cross-sectional study

Aim: To determine the validity of bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) in quantifying fat-free mass (FFM) compared to air-displacement plethysmography (ADP) in patients with a motor neurone disease (MND). Methods: FFM of 140 patients diagnosed with MND was determined by ADP using the BodPod (i.e. the gold standard), and by BIA using the whole-body Bodystat. FFM values were translated to predicted resting energy expenditure (REE); the actual REE was measured using indirect calorimetry, resulting in a metabolic index. Validity of the BIA compared to the ADP was assessed using Bland-Altman analysis and Pearson’s r. To assess the clinical relevance of differences, we evaluated changes in metabolic index and in individualized protein demand. Results: Despite the high correlation between ADP and BIA (r = 0.93), averaged across patients, the assessed mean fat-free mass was 51.7 kg (± 0.9) using ADP and 54.2 kg (± 1.0) using BIA. Hence, BIA overestimated fat-free mass by 2.5 kg (95% CI 1.8–3.2, p < 0.001). Clinically, an increased metabolic index would be more often underdiagnosed in patients with MND using BIA (31.4% according to BIA versus 44.2% according to ADP, p = 0.048). A clinically relevant overestimation of ≥ 15 g in protein demand was observed for 4 (2.9%) patients using BIA. Conclusions: BIA systematically overestimates FFM in patients with MND. Although the differences are limited with ADP, underscoring the utility of BIA for research, overestimation of fat-free mass may have consequences for clinical decision-making, especially when interest lies in determining the metabolic index

Changes in the natural dynamics of Nothofagus dombeyi forests : population modeling with increasing drought frequencies

Drought-induced episodes of tree mortality can determine forest dynamics and structure, particularly in forests dominated by single species. Short- and mid-term climate projections indicate that strong changes in annual precipitation may strike more often in northern Patagonia. Data for recruitment, growth, and survival of Nothofagus dombeyi tree individuals were collected at several sites across the Nahuel Huapi National Park in Argentina. We combined mathematically all these different demographic stages into an Integral Projection Model to simulate 100-yr projections of simulated stand structure under different frequencies of extreme drought episodes. We projected total basal area and the number of individuals for three different initial stand types (i.e., young, medium, and old) and for varying drought frequencies (i.e., from 1 to 5 drought events every 100 years). Recruitment into the dbh ≥ 10 cm size class under normal conditions (i.e., without drought) was higher than under episodic drought conditions. In addition, survival under normal conditions was higher than under drought conditions, especially for small trees. Differences in growth were also important, with trees growing more vigorously under normal than under drought conditions. Our simulations predicted that N. dombeyi populations would experience a reduction in tree density in the mid-term if, as predicted by the IPCC projections, the frequency of future drought events increased. The simulations also showed that in those cases, young stands should suffer the most. Drought-mediated changes may induce a decline in the development of N. dombeyi forests in the mid- and long term by a drastic reduction in tree density

Causes and Implications of the Correlation between Forest productivity and Tree Mortality Rates

At global and regional scales, tree mortality rates are positively correlated with forest net primary productivity (NPP). Yet causes of the correlation are unknown, in spite of potentially profound implications for our understanding of environmental controls of forest structure and dynamics and, more generally, our understanding of broad-scale environmental controls of population dynamics and ecosystem processes. Here we seek to shed light on the causes of geographic patterns in tree mortality rates, and we consider some implications of the positive correlation between mortality rates and NPP. To reach these ends, we present seven hypotheses potentially explaining the correlation, develop an approach to help distinguish among the hypotheses, and apply the approach in a case study comparing a tropical and temperate forest. Based on our case study and literature synthesis, we conclude that no single mechanism controls geographic patterns of tree mortality rates. At least four different mechanisms may be at play, with the dominant mechanisms depending on whether the underlying productivity gradients are caused by climate or soil fertility. Two of the mechanisms are consequences of environmental selection for certain combinations of life-history traits, reflecting trade-offs between growth and defense (along edaphic productivity gradients) and between reproduction and persistence (as manifested in the adult tree stature continuum along climatic and edaphic gradients). The remaining two mechanisms are consequences of environmental influences on the nature and strength of ecological interactions: competition (along edaphic gradients) and pressure from plant enemies (along climatic gradients). For only one of these four mechanisms, competition, can high mortality rates be considered to be a relatively direct consequence of high NPP. The remaining mechanisms force us to adopt a different view of causality, in which tree growth rates and probability of mortality can vary with at least a degree of independence along productivity gradients. In many cases, rather than being a direct cause of high mortality rates, NPP may remain high in spite of high mortality rates. The independent influence of plant enemies and other factors helps explain why forest biomass can show little correlation, or even negative correlation, with forest NPP

Impacts of invasive plants on carbon pools depend on both species’ traits and local climate

Invasive plants can alter ecosystem properties, leading to changes in the ecosystem services on which humans depend. However, generalizing about these effects is difficult because invasive plants represent a wide range of life forms, and invaded ecosystems differ in their plant communities and abiotic conditions. We hypothesize that differences in traits between the invader and native species can be used to predict impacts and so aid generalization. We further hypothesize that environmental conditions at invaded sites modify the effect of trait differences and so combine with traits to predict invasion impacts. To test these hypotheses, we used systematic review to compile data on changes in aboveground and soil carbon pools following non-native plant invasion from studies across the World. Maximum potential height (Hmax) of each species was drawn from trait databases and other sources. We used meta-regression to assess which of invasive species’ Hmax, differences in this height trait between native and invasive plants, and climatic water deficit, a measure of water stress, were good predictors of changes in carbon pools following invasion. We found that aboveground biomass in invaded ecosystems relative to uninvaded ones increased as the value of Hmax of invasive relative to native species increased, but that this effect was reduced in more water stressed ecosystems. Changes in soil carbon pools were also positively correlated with the relative Hmax of invasive species, but were not altered by water stress. This study is one of the first to show quantitatively that the impact of invasive species on an ecosystem may depend on differences in invasive and native species’ traits, rather than solely the traits of invasive species. Our study is also the first to show that the influence of trait differences can be altered by climate. Further developing our understanding of the impacts of invasive species using this framework could help researchers to identify not only potentially dangerous invasive species, but also the ecosystems where impacts are likely to be greatest

The Fire and Tree Mortality Database, for Empirical Modeling of Individual Tree Mortality After Fire

Wildland fires have a multitude of ecological effects in forests, woodlands, and savannas across the globe. A major focus of past research has been on tree mortality from fire, as trees provide a vast range of biological services. We assembled a database of individual-tree records from prescribed fires and wildfires in the United States. The Fire and Tree Mortality (FTM) database includes records from 164,293 individual trees with records of fire injury (crown scorch, bole char, etc.), tree diameter, and either mortality or top-kill up to ten years post-fire. Data span 142 species and 62 genera, from 409 fires occurring from 1981-2016. Additional variables such as insect attack are included when available. The FTM database can be used to evaluate individual fire-caused mortality models for pre-fire planning and post-fire decision support, to develop improved models, and to explore general patterns of individual fire-induced tree death. The database can also be used to identify knowledge gaps that could be addressed in future research

Major and trace element geochemistry of El Chichón volcano-hydrothermal system (Chiapas, México) in 2006-2007: implications for future geochemical monitoring

Isotopic, major and trace element composition studies for the crater lake, the Soap Pool and thermal springs at El Chichón volcano in November 2006-October 2007 confirm the complex relationship between annual rainfall distribution and crater lake volume and chemistry. In 2001, 2004 and 2007 high volume high-Cl lake may be related to reactivation of high discharge (>10 kg/s) saline near-neutral water from the Soap Pool boiling springs into the lake, a few months (~January) after the end of the rainy season (June-October). The peak lake volume occurred in March 2007 (~6 x 105 m3). Agua Tibia 2 thermal springs discharge near the foot of the SW dome but their chemistry suggests a lower temperature regime, an enhanced water-rock interaction and basement contribution (evaporites and carbonates), anhydrite leaching from the 1982 pyroclastic deposits, rather than dome activity. New suggestions of crater lake seepage are evidenced by the Agua Caliente thermal springs. Existing models on the “crater lake-Soap Pool spring” and the deep hydrothermal system are discussed. Chemical changes in the deep geothermal aquifer feeding the thermal springs may predict dome rise. Future volcanic surveillance should focus on spring chemistry variations, as well as crater lake monitoring

Influences of Forest Structure, Climate and Species Composition on Tree Mortality across the Eastern US

Few studies have quantified regional variation in tree mortality, or explored whether species compositional changes or within-species variation are responsible for regional patterns, despite the fact that mortality has direct effects on the dynamics of woody biomass, species composition, stand structure, wood production and forest response to climate change. Using Bayesian analysis of over 430,000 tree records from a large eastern US forest database we characterised tree mortality as a function of climate, soils, species and size (stem diameter). We found (1) mortality is U-shaped vs. stem diameter for all 21 species examined; (2) mortality is hump-shaped vs. plot basal area for most species; (3) geographical variation in mortality is substantial, and correlated with several environmental factors; and (4) individual species vary substantially from the combined average in the nature and magnitude of their mortality responses to environmental variation. Regional variation in mortality is therefore the product of variation in species composition combined with highly varied mortality-environment correlations within species. The results imply that variation in mortality is a crucial part of variation in the forest carbon cycle, such that including this variation in models of the global carbon cycle could significantly narrow uncertainty in climate change predictions

Causes and implications of the correlation between forest productivity and tree mortality rates

At global and regional scales, tree mortality rates are positively correlated with forest net primary productivity (NPP). Yet causes of the correlation are unknown, in spite of potentially profound implications for our understanding of environmental controls of forest structure and dynamics and, more generally, our understanding of broad-scale environmental controls of population dynamics and ecosystem processes. Here we seek to shed light on the causes of geographic patterns in tree mortality rates, and we consider some implications of the positive correlation between mortality rates and NPP. To reach these ends, we present seven hypotheses potentially explaining the correlation, develop an approach to help distinguish among the hypotheses, and apply the approach in a case study comparing a tropical and temperate forest. Based on our case study and literature synthesis, we conclude that no single mechanism controls geographic patterns of tree mortality rates. At least four different mechanisms may be at play, with the dominant mechanisms depending on whether the underlying productivity gradients are caused by climate or soil fertility. Two of the mechanisms are consequences of environmental selection for certain combinations of life-history traits, reflecting trade-offs between growth and defense (along edaphic productivity gradients) and between reproduction and persistence (as manifested in the adult tree stature continuum along climatic and edaphic gradients). The remaining two mechanisms are consequences of environmental influences on the nature and strength of ecological interactions: competition (along edaphic gradients) and pressure from plant enemies (along climatic gradients). For only one of these four mechanisms, competition, can high mortality rates be considered to be a relatively direct consequence of high NPP. The remaining mechanisms force us to adopt a different view of causality, in which tree growth rates and probability of mortality can vary with at least a degree of independence along productivity gradients. In many cases, rather than being a direct cause of high mortality rates, NPP may remain high in spite of high mortality rates. The independent influence of plant enemies and other factors helps explain why forest biomass can show little correlation, or even negative correlation, with forest NPP.Keywords: Functional traits, Plant enemies, Forest dynamics, Temperate forest, Net primary productivity, Tropical forest, Competition, Consumer controls, Tree growth, Life-history trade-offs, Tree mortality, Permanent sample plotsThis is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by Ecological Society of America and can be found at: www.esa.org