A Bayesian spatio-temporal nowcasting model for public health decision-making and surveillance

As COVID-19 spread through the United States in 2020, states began to set up alert systems to inform policy decisions and serve as risk communication tools for the general public. Many of these systems, like in Ohio, included indicators based on an assessment of trends in reported cases. However, when cases are indexed by date of disease onset, reporting delays complicate the interpretation of trends. Despite a foundation of statistical literature to address this problem, these methods have not been widely applied in practice. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal nowcasting model for assessing trends in county-level COVID-19 cases in Ohio. We compare the performance of our model to the current approach used in Ohio and the approach that was recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We demonstrate gains in performance while still retaining interpretability using our model. In addition, we are able to fully account for uncertainty in both the time series of cases and in the reporting process. While we cannot eliminate all of the uncertainty in public health surveillance and subsequent decision-making, we must use approaches that embrace these challenges and deliver more accurate and honest assessments to policymakers

The Lantern Vol. 21, No. 3, Summer 1953

• Millie and Murph • Waxy • Nor Bars a Prison Make • The Shows at Killapoorsparrow • Sahonnet to a Mahodern Sahinger • In Each Man: A Collection • Mirrors • The Offspring of My Song • Come Sweet Night • A Modern Ballad • Uninvitedhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/lantern/1060/thumbnail.jp

The Lantern Vol. 21, No. 2, Spring 1953

• Package from the Past • Objective Abstraction No. 1 • The Streetlamp • Journey Home • Rendezvous • The Admonition • Easter Thought • Summer Thought • The Understanders • Nocturne • Night and the City • Study in Shadow • Southern Mountain Song • The Introvert • Conflict • A Moment in Flight • Hiatus • Night Search • To a Cat • Lines to a Rejected Contributor • The Old Professorhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/lantern/1059/thumbnail.jp

Teachers' Perceptions of School Organizational Climate as Predictors of Dosage and Quality of Implementation of a Social-Emotional and Character Development Program

Abstract Organizational climate has been proposed as a factor that might influence a school's readiness to successfully implement school-wide prevention programs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of teachers' perceptions of three dimensions of school organizational climate on the dosage and quality of teacher implementation of Positive Action, a social-emotional and character development (SECD) program. The dimensions measured were teachers' perceptions of (a) the school's openness to innovation, (b) the extent to which schools utilize participatory decision-making practices, and (c) the existence of supportive relationships among teachers (teacher-teacher affiliation). Data from 46 teachers in seven schools enrolled in the treatment arm of a longitudinal, cluster-randomized, controlled trial were analyzed. Teacher perceptions of a school's tendency to be innovative was associated with a greater number of lessons taught and self-reported quality of delivery, and teacher-teacher affiliation was associated with a higher use of supplementary activities. The findings suggest that perceptions of a school's organizational climate impact teachers' implementation of SECD programs and have implications for school administrators and technical assistance providers as they work to implement and sustain prevention programs in schools

Stretch Activated Channels in Proprioceptive Organs of Crab and Crayfish Are Sensitive to Gadolinium but not Amiloride, Ruthenium Red or Low pH

The type of stretch activated receptors (SARs) in the chordotonal organs in the crab walking leg and of the muscle receptor organ (MRO) in the crayfish abdomen have not yet been classified as to their molecular or pharmacological profile. The purpose of this study is to examine the pharmacological profile of SARs in the proprioceptive neurons in the crab and crayfish models. Since many SARs share the pharmacological profile of displaying low pH or being proton sensitive (i.e. being more active) or blocked by the diuretic amiloride or ruthenium red as well as being blocked by the broad stretch activated channel blocker gadolinium (Gd3+), we used these agents to screen the receptors. Various displacement rates as well as static positions that activate the stretch activated receptors were used in examining their pharmacological profiles. Hour-long exposure to low pH decreased neural activity of the chordotonal organ of the crab more so than to amiloride or ruthenium red. The crayfish MRO did not show pH sensitivity or sensitivity to amiloride or ruthenium red. Gd3+ rapidly blocked neural activity in both the crab and crayfish. It appears these stretch activated receptors may not have a classification that is suited to the standard pharmacological profiles. The molecular makeup of the channels also awaits characterization. This could reveal a novel SAR subtype. Our neurophysiology course1 took this project on as a course-based undergraduate research experience (CURE) to address an authentic research question

The Effect of CO\u3csub\u3e2\u3c/sub\u3e, Intracellular pH and Extracellular pH on Mechanosensory Proprioceptor Responses in Crayfish and Crab

Proprioceptive neurons monitor the movements of limbs and joints to transduce the movements into electrical signals. These neurons function similarly in species from arthropods to humans. These neurons can be compromised in disease states and in adverse environmental conditions such as with changes in external and internal pH. We used two model preparations (the crayfish muscle receptor organ and a chordotonal organ in the limb of a crab) to characterize the responses of these proprioceptors to external and internal pH changes as well as raised CO2. The results demonstrate the proprioceptive organs are not highly sensitive to changes in extracellular pH, when reduced to 5.0 from 7.4. However, if intracellular pH is decreased by exposure to propionic acid or saline containing CO2, there is a rapid decrease in firing rate in response to joint movements. The responses recover quickly upon reintroduction of normal pH (7.4) or saline not tainted with CO2. These basic understandings may help to address the mechanistic properties of mechanosensitive receptors in other organisms, such as muscle spindles in skeletal muscles of mammals and tactile as well as pressure (i.e., blood pressure) sensory receptors

The genetic architecture of the human cerebral cortex

The cerebral cortex underlies our complex cognitive capabilities, yet little is known about the specific genetic loci that influence human cortical structure. To identify genetic variants that affect cortical structure, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of brain magnetic resonance imaging data from 51,665 individuals. We analyzed the surface area and average thickness of the whole cortex and 34 regions with known functional specializations. We identified 199 significant loci and found significant enrichment for loci influencing total surface area within regulatory elements that are active during prenatal cortical development, supporting the radial unit hypothesis. Loci that affect regional surface area cluster near genes in Wnt signaling pathways, which influence progenitor expansion and areal identity. Variation in cortical structure is genetically correlated with cognitive function, Parkinson's disease, insomnia, depression, neuroticism, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder