Predicting outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis related interstitial lung disease

Aims: To compare radiology-based prediction models in rheumatoid arthritis-related interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) to identify patients with a progressive fibrosis phenotype.Methods: RAILD patients had CTs scored visually and by CALIPER and forced vital capacity (FVC) measurements. Outcomes were evaluated using three techniques: 1.Scleroderma system evaluating visual ILD extent and FVC values; 2.Fleischer Society IPF diagnostic guidelines applied to RAILD; 3.CALIPER scores of vessel-related structures (VRS). Outcomes were compared to IPF patients.Results: On univariable Cox analysis, all three staging systems strongly predicted outcome: Scleroderma System:HR=3.78, p=9×10-5; Fleischner System:HR=1.98, p=2×10-3; 4.4% VRS threshold:HR=3.10, p=4×10-4 When the Scleroderma and Fleischner Systems were combined, termed the Progressive Fibrotic System (C-statistic=0.71), they identified a patient subset (n=36) with a progressive fibrotic phenotype and similar 4-year survival to IPF.On multivariable analysis, with adjustment for patient age, gender and smoking status, when analysed alongside the Progressive Fibrotic System, the VRS threshold of 4.4% independently predicted outcome (Model C-statistic=0.77).Conclusions: The combination of two visual CT-based staging systems identified 23% of an RAILD cohort with an IPF-like progressive fibrotic phenotype. The addition of a computer-derived VRS threshold further improved outcome prediction and model fit, beyond that encompassed by RAILD measures of disease severity and extent

Innovative solutions to novel drug development in mental health

There are many new advances in neuroscience and mental health which should lead to a greater understanding of the neurobiological dysfunction in neuropsychiatric disorders and new developments for early, effective treatments. To do this, a biomarker approach combining genetic, neuroimaging, cognitive and other biological measures is needed. The aim of this article is to highlight novel approaches for pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatment development. This article suggests approaches that can be taken in the future including novel mechanisms with preliminary clinical validation to provide a toolbox for mechanistic studies and also examples of translation and back-translation. The review also emphasizes the need for clinician-scientists to be trained in a novel way in order to equip them with the conceptual and experimental techniques required, and emphasizes the need for private-public partnership and pre-competitive knowledge exchange. This should lead the way for important new holistic treatment developments to improve cognition, functional outcome and well-being of people with neuropsychiatric disorders

Age at first birth in women is genetically associated with increased risk of schizophrenia

Prof. Paunio on PGC:n jäsenPrevious studies have shown an increased risk for mental health problems in children born to both younger and older parents compared to children of average-aged parents. We previously used a novel design to reveal a latent mechanism of genetic association between schizophrenia and age at first birth in women (AFB). Here, we use independent data from the UK Biobank (N = 38,892) to replicate the finding of an association between predicted genetic risk of schizophrenia and AFB in women, and to estimate the genetic correlation between schizophrenia and AFB in women stratified into younger and older groups. We find evidence for an association between predicted genetic risk of schizophrenia and AFB in women (P-value = 1.12E-05), and we show genetic heterogeneity between younger and older AFB groups (P-value = 3.45E-03). The genetic correlation between schizophrenia and AFB in the younger AFB group is -0.16 (SE = 0.04) while that between schizophrenia and AFB in the older AFB group is 0.14 (SE = 0.08). Our results suggest that early, and perhaps also late, age at first birth in women is associated with increased genetic risk for schizophrenia in the UK Biobank sample. These findings contribute new insights into factors contributing to the complex bio-social risk architecture underpinning the association between parental age and offspring mental health.Peer reviewe

Estimation of Genetic Correlation via Linkage Disequilibrium Score Regression and Genomic Restricted Maximum Likelihood

J. Lönnqvist on työryhmän Psychiat Genomics Consortium jäsen.Genetic correlation is a key population parameter that describes the shared genetic architecture of complex traits and diseases. It can be estimated by current state-of-art methods, i.e., linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) and genomic restricted maximum likelihood (GREML). The massively reduced computing burden of LDSC compared to GREML makes it an attractive tool, although the accuracy (i.e., magnitude of standard errors) of LDSC estimates has not been thoroughly studied. In simulation, we show that the accuracy of GREML is generally higher than that of LDSC. When there is genetic heterogeneity between the actual sample and reference data from which LD scores are estimated, the accuracy of LDSC decreases further. In real data analyses estimating the genetic correlation between schizophrenia (SCZ) and body mass index, we show that GREML estimates based on similar to 150,000 individuals give a higher accuracy than LDSC estimates based on similar to 400,000 individuals (from combinedmeta-data). A GREML genomic partitioning analysis reveals that the genetic correlation between SCZ and height is significantly negative for regulatory regions, which whole genome or LDSC approach has less power to detect. We conclude that LDSC estimates should be carefully interpreted as there can be uncertainty about homogeneity among combined meta-datasets. We suggest that any interesting findings from massive LDSC analysis for a large number of complex traits should be followed up, where possible, with more detailed analyses with GREML methods, even if sample sizes are lesser.Peer reviewe

Chinese State Media Coverage of Climate Change and the Future of China's Food and Water Security

This research centers on a summary of scientifically observed current effects of climate change on water security in China. It postulates that climate change has the potential to affect water security, and therefore, food security, at an increasingly rapid rate in the future, and discusses the climatic mechanisms by which these potentialities could occur. Specifically, it focuses on the relationship of water sources in the Tibetan Plateau with meteorological changes brought about by climate change, challenging commonly accepted assumptions regarding the rapid melt of glacial ice there, and instead, suggests that future water scarcity in China will be more heavily affected by changes in precipitation patterns than by decreases in glacial volumes. Finally, this research discusses the role of media in forming the social awareness of populations, adopting from social science the idea that an individual's perceptions define her reality. In particular, it explores the attitudes of the Chinese state-run media toward the publication of climate change-related news stories, and the effects these attitudes have on the substance and quality of these reports, concluding that the Chinese State considers thorough and accurate information about the causes and effects of climate change to be sensitive and potentially incendiary

A Formal Approach to Negotiating Agents Development

This paper presents a formal and executable approach to capture the behaviour of parties involved in a negotiation. A party is modeled as a negotiating agent composed of a communication module, a control module, a reasoning module, and a knowledge base. The control module is expressed as a emph{statechart}, and the reasoning module as a emph{defeasible logic} program. A strategy specification therefore consists of a statechart, a set of defeasible rules, and a set of initial facts. Such a specification can be dynamically plugged into an agent shell incorporating a statechart interpreter and a defeasible logic inference engine, in order to yield an agent capable of participating in a given type of negotiations. The choice of statecharts and defeasible logic with respect to other formalisms is justified against a set of desirable criteria, and their suitability is illustrated through concrete examples of bidding and multi-lateral bargaining scenario

The Intergeneration Long-Lasting Consequences of Pre-Conceptional Exposure to Sofosbuvir on the Ovarian Tissues of F1 Offspring: Experimental Study on Rats

Sofosbuvir (SOF), a nucleos(t)ide polymerase inhibitor, has been used during the past decade for mass treatment of viral hepatitis C in endemic countries like Egypt, increasing the exposure of women at childbearing age to SOF. This study investigated the long-lasting consequences of the pre-conceptional exposure of young female rats to SOF on the ovarian tissues of F1 offspring and explored the possible molecular mechanisms of these intergenerational effects at various levels. The study was conducted on young female rats that were divided into control group and SOF-exposed group at a dose of 4 mg/kg/day for three months. After that, pregnancy was induced in both groups by mating with healthy male rats. After delivery, the female neonates were followed for 4 months, and the ovarian tissues were collected to assess the studied parameters. Pre-conceptional exposure to SOF affected the ovarian functions of F1 offspring through modulation of estrogen receptors, ovarian Kiss1 and its receptor, increased lipid peroxidation marker, DNA oxidation marker, and redox-sensitive nuclear factor kappa B, and decreased nuclear erythroid-2-related factor 2, mitochondrial function, and biogenesis. SOF affected the ovarian function of the F1 offspring by inducing oxidative stress and inflammation, leading to the modulation of mitochondrial functions and biogenesis