Diagnostic Accuracy of Age and Alarm Symptoms for Upper GI Malignancy in Patients with Dyspepsia in a GI Clinic: A 7-Year Cross-Sectional Study

<div><h3>Objectives</h3><p>We investigated whether using demographic characteristics and alarm symptoms can accurately predict cancer in patients with dyspepsia in Iran, where upper GI cancers and <em>H. pylori</em> infection are common.</p> <h3>Methods</h3><p>All consecutive patients referred to a tertiary gastroenterology clinic in Tehran, Iran, from 2002 to 2009 were invited to participate in this study. Each patient completed a standard questionnaire and underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Alarm symptoms included in the questionnaire were weight loss, dysphagia, GI bleeding, and persistent vomiting. We used logistic regression models to estimate the diagnostic value of each variable in combination with other ones, and to develop a risk-prediction model.</p> <h3>Results</h3><p>A total of 2,847 patients with dyspepsia participated in this study, of whom 87 (3.1%) had upper GI malignancy. Patients reporting at least one of the alarm symptoms constituted 66.7% of cancer patients compared to 38.9% in patients without cancer (p<0.001). Esophageal or gastric cancers in patients with dyspepsia was associated with older age, being male, and symptoms of weight loss and vomiting. Each single predictor had low sensitivity and specificity. Using a combination of age, alarm symptoms, and smoking, we built a risk-prediction model that distinguished between high-risk and low-risk individuals with an area under the ROC curve of 0.85 and acceptable calibration.</p> <h3>Conclusions</h3><p>None of the predictors demonstrated high diagnostic accuracy. While our risk-prediction model had reasonable accuracy, some cancer cases would have remained undiagnosed. Therefore, where available, low cost endoscopy may be preferable for dyspeptic older patient or those with history of weight loss.</p> </div

Identifying the Profile of Helicobacter pylori-Negative Gastric Cancers: A Case-Only Analysis within the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project

Background: The prevalence of Helicobacter pylori-negative gastric cancer (HpNGC) can be as low as 1%, when infection is assessed using more sensitive tests or considering the presence of gastric atrophy. HpNGC may share a high-risk profile contributing to the occurrence of cancer in the absence of infection. We estimated the proportion of HpNGC, using different criteria to define infection status, and compared HpNGC and positive cases regarding gastric cancer risk factors. Methods: Cases from 12 studies from the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project providing data on H. pylori infection status determined by serologic test were included. HpNGC was reclassified as positive (eight studies) when cases presented CagA markers (four studies), gastric atrophy (six studies), or advanced stage at diagnosis (three studies), and were compared with positive cases. A two-stage approach (random-effects models) was used to pool study-specific prevalence and adjusted odds ratios (OR). Results: Among non-cardia cases, the pooled prevalence of HpNGC was 22.4% (n = 166/853) and decreased to 7.0% (n = 55) when considering CagA status; estimates for all criteria were 21.8% (n = 276/1, 325) and 6.6% (n = 97), respectively. HpNGC had a family history of gastric cancer more often [OR = 2.18; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-4.61] and were current smokers (OR = 2.16; 95% CI, 0.52-9.02). Conclusion: This study found a low prevalence of HpNGC, who are more likely to have a family history of gastric cancer in first-degree relatives. Impact: Our results support that H. pylori infection is present in most non-cardia gastric cancers, and suggest that HpNGC may have distinct patterns of exposure to other risk factors.S. Morais, B. Peleteiro, N. Araújo, and N. Lunet received national funding from the Foundation for Science and Technology – FCT (Portuguese Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education), under the Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia – Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto (EPIUnit; UIDB/04750/2020). S. Morais received funding under the scope of the project “NEON-PC - Neuro-oncological complications of prostate cancer: longitudinal study of cognitive decline” (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-032358; ref. PTDC/SAU-EPI/32358/2017) funded by FEDER through the Operational Program Competitiveness and Internationalization, and national funding from FCT, and the EPIunit – Junior Research – Prog Financing (UIDP/04750/2020). N. Araújo received an individual grant (SFRH/BD/119390/2016) funded by FCT and the ‘Programa Operacional Capital Humano’ (POCH/FSE). C. La Vecchia received funding from the Italian Association for Cancer Research (AIRC, investigator grant no. 21378). All authors received support from the European Cancer Prevention (ECP) Organization for project meetings. All authors thank all MCC-Spain study collaborators (CIBERESP, ISCIII, ISGlobal, ICO, University of Huelva, University of Oviedo, University of Cantabria, University of León, ibs. Granada, Instituto Salud Pública de Navarra, FISABIO, Murcia Regional Health Authority and cols). The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked advertisement in accordance with 18 U.S.C. Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact

Inverse Association between Dietary Iron Intake and Gastric Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of Case‐Control Studies of the Stop Consortium

Background: Inconsistent findings have been reported regarding the relationship between dietary iron intake and the risk of gastric cancer (GC). Methods: We pooled data from 11 case‐control studies from the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project. Total dietary iron intake was derived from food frequency questionnaires combined with national nutritional tables. We derived the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for quartiles of dietary iron through multivariable unconditional logistic regression models. Secondary analyses stratified by sex, smoking status, caloric intake, anatomical subsite and histological type were performed. Results: Among 4658 cases and 12247 controls, dietary iron intake was inversely associated with GC (per quartile OR 0.88; 95% CI: 0.83–0.93). Results were similar between cardia (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.77–0.94) and non‐cardia GC (OR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.81–0.94), and for diffuse (OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.69–0.89) and intestinal type (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79–0.98). Iron intake exerted an independent effect from that of smoking and salt intake. Additional adjustment by meat and fruit/vegetable intake did not alter the results. Conclusions: Dietary iron is inversely related to GC, with no difference by subsite or histological type. While the results should be interpreted with caution, they provide evidence against a direct effect of iron in gastric carcinogenesis. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.This study was supported by the Fondazione AIRC per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Project no. 21378 (Investigator Grant). The Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia—Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto (EPIUnit; UIDB/04750/2020) and the Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR; LA/P/0064/2020) were funded by the Foundation for Science and Technology—FCT (Portuguese Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education). SM was supported by the project “NEON‐PC—Neuro‐oncological complications of prostate cancer: longitudinal study of cognitive decline” (POCI‐01‐0145‐FEDER‐032358; ref. PTDC/SAU‐EPI/32358/2017), which is funded by FEDER through the Operational Programme competitiveness and Internationalization, and national funding from FCT and the EPIUnit—Junior Research—Prog Financing (UIDP/04750/2020). The authors thank the European Cancer Prevention (ECP) Organization for providing support for the StoP Project meetings and all MCC‐Spain study collaborators (CIBERESP, ISCIII, ISGlobal, ICO, University of Huelva, University of Oviedo, University of Cantabria, ibs.Granada, Instituto Salud Pública de Navarra, FISABIO, Murcia Regional Health Authority and cols)

The global burden of viral hepatitis from 1990 to 2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: With recent improvements in vaccines and treatments against viral hepatitis, an improved understanding of the burden of viral hepatitis is needed to inform global intervention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to estimate morbidity and mortality for acute viral hepatitis, and for cirrhosis and liver cancer caused by viral hepatitis, by age, sex, and country from 1990 to 2013. METHODS: We estimated mortality using natural history models for acute hepatitis infections and GBD's cause-of-death ensemble model for cirrhosis and liver cancer. We used meta-regression to estimate total cirrhosis and total liver cancer prevalence, as well as the proportion of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to each cause. We then estimated cause-specific prevalence as the product of the total prevalence and the proportion attributable to a specific cause. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2013, global viral hepatitis deaths increased from 0·89 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·86–0·94) to 1·45 million (1·38–1·54); YLLs from 31·0 million (29·6–32·6) to 41·6 million (39·1–44·7); YLDs from 0·65 million (0·45–0·89) to 0·87 million (0·61–1·18); and DALYs from 31·7 million (30·2–33·3) to 42·5 million (39·9–45·6). In 2013, viral hepatitis was the seventh (95% UI seventh to eighth) leading cause of death worldwide, compared with tenth (tenth to 12th) in 1990. INTERPRETATION: Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Unlike most communicable diseases, the absolute burden and relative rank of viral hepatitis increased between 1990 and 2013. The enormous health loss attributable to viral hepatitis, and the availability of effective vaccines and treatments, suggests an important opportunity to improve public health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Salt intake and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project

Purpose: Previous studies show that consuming foods preserved by salting increases the risk of gastric cancer, while results on the association between total salt or added salt and gastric cancer are less consistent and vary with the exposure considered. This study aimed to quantify the association between dietary salt exposure and gastric cancer, using an individual participant data meta-analysis of studies participating in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project. Methods: Data from 25 studies (10,283 cases and 24,643 controls) from the StoP Project with information on salt taste preference (tasteless, normal, salty), use of table salt (never, sometimes, always), total sodium intake (tertiles of grams/day), and high-salt and salt-preserved foods intake (tertiles of grams/day) were used. A two-stage approach based on random-effects models was used to pool study-specific adjusted (sex, age, and gastric cancer risk factors) odds ratios (aORs), and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: Gastric cancer risk was higher for salty taste preference (aOR 1.59, 95% CI 1.25–2.03), always using table salt (aOR 1.33, 95% CI 1.16–1.54), and for the highest tertile of high-salt and salt-preserved foods intake (aOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01–1.51) vs. the lowest tertile. No significant association was observed for the highest vs. the lowest tertile of total sodium intake (aOR 1.08, 95% CI 0.82–1.43). The results obtained were consistent across anatomic sites, strata of Helicobacter pylori infection, and sociodemographic, lifestyle and study characteristics. Conclusion: Salty taste preference, always using table salt, and a greater high-salt and salt-preserved foods intake increased the risk of gastric cancer, though the association was less robust with total sodium intake. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.This study was funded by national funds from the Foundation for Science and Technology—FCT (Portuguese Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education), under the Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia—Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto (EPIUnit; UIDB/04750/2020), by the Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC), Project no. 21378 (Investigator Grant), and the Agency for Management of University and Research Grants (AGAUR) of the Catalan Government (Grant 2017SGR723). AC and SM were funded under the scope of the project "NEON-PC—Neuro-oncological complications of prostate cancer: longitudinal study of cognitive decline" (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-032358; ref. PTDC/SAU-EPI/32358/2017). SM was also funded under EPIUnit—Junior Research—Prog Financing (UIDP/04750/2020). An individual grant attributed to NA (SFRH/BD/119390/2016) was funded by FCT and the ‘Programa Operacional Capital Humano’ (POCH/FSE). The authors thank the European Cancer Prevention (ECP) Organization for providing support for the project meetings, all MCC-Spain study collaborators (CIBERESP, ISCIII, ISGlobal, ICO, University of Huelva, University of Oviedo, University of Cantabria, University of León, ibs. Granada, Instituto Salud Pública de Navarra, FISABIO, Murcia Regional Health Authority and cols). The funding sources had no role in the study design; collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the article for publication

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

OBJECTIVES: We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 to report the burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). METHODS: The burden of musculoskeletal disorders was calculated for the EMR's 22 countries between 1990 and 2013. A systematic analysis was performed on mortality and morbidity data to estimate prevalence, death, years of live lost, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). RESULTS: For musculoskeletal disorders, the crude DALYs rate per 100 000 increased from 1297.1 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 924.3-1703.4) in 1990 to 1606.0 (95% UI 1141.2-2130.4) in 2013. During 1990-2013, the total DALYs of musculoskeletal disorders increased by 105.2% in the EMR compared with a 58.0% increase in the rest of the world. The burden of musculoskeletal disorders as a proportion of total DALYs increased from 2.4% (95% UI 1.7-3.0) in 1990 to 4.7% (95% UI 3.6-5.8) in 2013. The range of point prevalence (per 1000) among the EMR countries was 28.2-136.0 for low back pain, 27.3-49.7 for neck pain, 9.7-37.3 for osteoarthritis (OA), 0.6-2.2 for rheumatoid arthritis and 0.1-0.8 for gout. Low back pain and neck pain had the highest burden in EMR countries. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a high burden of musculoskeletal disorders, with a faster increase in EMR compared with the rest of the world. The reasons for this faster increase need to be explored. Our findings call for incorporating prevention and control programmes that should include improving health data, addressing risk factors, providing evidence-based care and community programmes to increase awareness

Transitions at CpG Dinucleotides, Geographic Clustering of TP53 Mutations and Food Availability Patterns in Colorectal Cancer

Colorectal cancer is mainly attributed to diet, but the role exerted by foods remains unclear because involved factors are extremely complex. Geography substantially impacts on foods. Correlations between international variation in colorectal cancer-associated mutation patterns and food availabilities could highlight the influence of foods on colorectal mutagenesis. mutations from 12 countries/geographic areas. For food availabilities, we relied on data extracted from the Food Balance Sheets of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Dendrograms for mutation sites, mutation types and food patterns were constructed through Ward's hierarchical clustering algorithm and their stability was assessed evaluating silhouette values. Feature selection used entropy-based measures for similarity between clusterings, combined with principal component analysis by exhaustive and heuristic approaches. hotspots. Pearson's correlation scores, computed between the principal components of the datamatrices for mutation types, food availability and mutation sites, demonstrated statistically significant correlations between transitions at CpGs and both mutation sites and availabilities of meat, milk, sweeteners and animal fats, the energy-dense foods at the basis of “Western” diets. This is best explainable by differential exposure to nitrosative DNA damage due to foods that promote metabolic stress and chronic inflammation

Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. Methods: GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically. Findings: The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred. Interpretation: Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts

Global and regional burden of chronic respiratory disease in 2016 arising from non-infectious airborne occupational exposures: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

OBJECTIVES: This paper presents detailed analysis of the global and regional burden of chronic respiratory disease arising from occupational airborne exposures, as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study. METHODS: The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) due to occupational exposure to particulate matter, gases and fumes, and secondhand smoke, and the burden of asthma resulting from occupational exposure to asthmagens, was estimated using the population attributable fraction (PAF), calculated using exposure prevalence and relative risks from the literature. PAFs were applied to the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for COPD and asthma. Pneumoconioses were estimated directly from cause of death data. Age-standardised rates were based only on persons aged 15 years and above. RESULTS: The estimated PAFs (based on DALYs) were 17% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 14%-20%) for COPD and 10% (95% UI 9%-11%) for asthma. There were estimated to be 519 000 (95% UI 441,000-609,000) deaths from chronic respiratory disease in 2016 due to occupational airborne risk factors (COPD: 460,100 [95% UI 382,000-551,000]; asthma: 37,600 [95% UI 28,400-47,900]; pneumoconioses: 21,500 [95% UI 17,900-25,400]. The equivalent overall burden estimate was 13.6 million (95% UI 11.9-15.5 million); DALYs (COPD: 10.7 [95% UI 9.0-12.5] million; asthma: 2.3 [95% UI 1.9-2.9] million; pneumoconioses: 0.58 [95% UI 0.46-0.67] million). Rates were highest in males; older persons and mainly in Oceania, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa; and decreased from 1990 to 2016. CONCLUSIONS: Workplace exposures resulting in COPD, asthma and pneumoconiosis continue to be important contributors to the burden of disease in all regions of the world. This should be reducible through improved prevention and control of relevant exposures