A 2017 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity

We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology.Cambridge Conservation Initiative, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Arcadia, Natural Environment Research Council (Grant ID: NE/N014472/1

Search for Second-Generation Scalar Leptoquarks in ppˉ\bm{p \bar{p}} Collisions at s\sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV

Results on a search for pair production of second generation scalar leptoquark in $p \bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$=1.96 TeV are reported. The data analyzed were collected by the CDF detector during the 2002-2003 Tevatron Run II and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 198 pb$^{-1}$. Leptoquarks (LQ) are sought through their decay into (charged) leptons and quarks, with final state signatures represented by two muons and jets and one muon, large transverse missing energy and jets. We observe no evidence for $LQ$ production and derive 95% C.L. upper limits on the $LQ$ production cross sections as well as lower limits on their mass as a function of $\beta$, where $\beta$ is the branching fraction for $LQ \to \mu q$.Comment: 9 pages (3 author list) 5 figure

Shortfalls and Solutions for Meeting National and Global Conservation Area Targets

Governments have committed to conserving 17% of terrestrial and 10% of marine environments globally, especially “areas of particular importance for biodiversity” through “ecologically representative” Protected Area (PA) systems or other “area-based conservation measures”, while individual countries have committed to conserve 3–50% of their land area. We estimate that PAs currently cover 14.6% of terrestrial and 2.8% of marine extent, but 59–68% of ecoregions, 77–78% of important sites for biodiversity, and 57% of 25,380 species have inadequate coverage. The existing 19.7 million km2 terrestrial PA network needs only 3.3 million km2 to be added to achieve 17% terrestrial coverage. However, it would require nearly doubling to achieve, costefficiently, coverage targets for all countries, ecoregions, important sites, and species. Poorer countries have the largest relative shortfalls. Such extensive and rapid expansion of formal PAs is unlikely to be achievable. Greater focus is therefore needed on alternative approaches, including community- and privately managed sites and other effective area-based conservation measures.We are grateful to the many individuals and organizations who contribute to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species,WDPA, or to identification of IBAs or AZEs. We thank A. Bennett for help with data collation and N. Dulvy, W. Laurance, and D. Faith for helpful comments on an earlier draft. This work was supported by the Cambridge Conservation Initiative Collaborative Fund and Arcadia.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/conl.1215

Measurement of the B0 anti-B0 oscillation frequency using l- D*+ pairs and lepton flavor tags

The oscillation frequency Delta-md of B0 anti-B0 mixing is measured using the partially reconstructed semileptonic decay anti-B0 -> l- nubar D*+ X. The data sample was collected with the CDF detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider during 1992 - 1995 by triggering on the existence of two lepton candidates in an event, and corresponds to about 110 pb-1 of pbar p collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV. We estimate the proper decay time of the anti-B0 meson from the measured decay length and reconstructed momentum of the l- D*+ system. The charge of the lepton in the final state identifies the flavor of the anti-B0 meson at its decay. The second lepton in the event is used to infer the flavor of the anti-B0 meson at production. We measure the oscillation frequency to be Delta-md = 0.516 +/- 0.099 +0.029 -0.035 ps-1, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic.Comment: 30 pages, 7 figures. Submitted to Physical Review

Coupling of palaeontological and neontological reef coral data improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change

Reef corals are currently undergoing climatically driven poleward range expansions, with some evidence for equatorial range retractions. Predicting their response to future climate scenarios is critical to their conservation, but ecological models are based only on short-term observations. The fossil record provides the only empirical evidence for the long-term response of organisms under perturbed climate states. The palaeontological record from the Last Interglacial (LIG; 125 000 years ago), a time of global warming, suggests that reef corals experienced poleward range shifts and an equatorial decline relative to their modern distribution. However, this record is spatio-temporally biased, and existing methods cannot account for data absence. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to estimate reef corals' realized niche and LIG distribution, based on modern and fossil occurrences. We then make inferences about modelled habitability under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Reef coral ranges during the LIG were comparable to the present, with no prominent equatorial decrease in habitability. Reef corals are likely to experience poleward range expansion and large equatorial declines under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, this range expansion is probably optimistic in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Incorporation of fossil data in niche models improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change

A novel widespread cryptic species and phylogeographic patterns within several giant clam species (Cardiidae: Tridacna) from the Indo-Pacific Ocean

Giant clams (genus Tridacna) are iconic coral reef animals of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, easily recognizable by their massive shells and vibrantly colored mantle tissue. Most Tridacna species are listed by CITES and the IUCN Redlist, as their populations have been extensively harvested and depleted in many regions. Here, we survey Tridacna crocea and Tridacna maxima from the eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans for mitochondrial (COI and 16S) and nuclear (ITS) sequence variation and consolidate these data with previous published results using phylogenetic analyses. We find deep intraspecific differentiation within both T. crocea and T. maxima. In T. crocea we describe a previously undocumented phylogeographic division to the east of Cenderawasih Bay (northwest New Guinea), whereas for T. maxima the previously described, distinctive lineage of Cenderawasih Bay can be seen to also typify western Pacific populations. Furthermore, we find an undescribed, monophyletic group that is evolutionarily distinct from named Tridacna species at both mitochondrial and nuclear loci. This cryptic taxon is geographically widespread with a range extent that minimally includes much of the central Indo-Pacific region. Our results reinforce the emerging paradigm that cryptic species are common among marine invertebrates, even for conspicuous and culturally significant taxa. Additionally, our results add to identified locations of genetic differentiation across the central Indo-Pacific and highlight how phylogeographic patterns may differ even between closely related and co-distributed species

Three monthly coral Sr/Ca records from the Chagos Archipelago covering the period of 1950-1995 A.D.: reproducibility and implications for quantitative reconstructions of sea surface temperature variations

In order to assess the fidelity of coral Sr/Ca for quantitative reconstructions of sea surface temperature variations, we have generated three monthly Sr/Ca time series from Porites corals from the lagoon of Peros Banhos (71°E, 5°S, Chagos Archipelago). We find that all three coral Sr/Ca time series are well correlated with instrumental records of sea surface temperature (SST) and air temperature. However, the intrinsic variance of the single-core Sr/Ca time series differs from core to core, limiting their use for quantitative estimates of past temperature variations. Averaging the single-core data improves the correlation with instrumental temperature (r > 0.7) and allows accurate estimates of interannual temperature variations (~0.35°C or better). All Sr/Ca time series indicate a shift towards warmer temperatures in the mid-1970s, which coincides with the most recent regime shift in the Pacific Ocean. However, the magnitude of the warming inferred from coral Sr/Ca differs from core to core and ranges from 0.26 to 0.75°C. The composite Sr/Ca record from Peros Banhos clearly captures the major climatic signals in the Indo-Pacific Ocean, i.e. the El Niño–southern oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation. Moreover, composite Sr/Ca is highly correlated with tropical mean temperatures (r = 0.7), suggesting that coral Sr/Ca time series from the tropical Indian Ocean will contribute to multi-proxy reconstructions of tropical mean temperatures

PathogenFinder - Distinguishing Friend from Foe Using Bacterial Whole Genome Sequence Data.

Although the majority of bacteria are harmless or even beneficial to their host, others are highly virulent and can cause serious diseases, and even death. Due to the constantly decreasing cost of high-throughput sequencing there are now many completely sequenced genomes available from both human pathogenic and innocuous strains. The data can be used to identify gene families that correlate with pathogenicity and to develop tools to predict the pathogenicity of newly sequenced strains, investigations that previously were mainly done by means of more expensive and time consuming experimental approaches. We describe PathogenFinde

Measurement of the Dipion Mass Spectrum in X(3872) -> J/Psi Pi+ Pi- Decays

We measure the dipion mass spectrum in X(3872)--> J/Psi Pi+ Pi- decays using 360 pb-1 of pbar-p collisions at 1.96 TeV collected with the CDF II detector. The spectrum is fit with predictions for odd C-parity (3S1, 1P1, and 3DJ) charmonia decaying to J/Psi Pi+ Pi-, as well as even C-parity states in which the pions are from Rho0 decay. The latter case also encompasses exotic interpretations, such as a D0-D*0Bar molecule. Only the 3S1 and J/Psi Rho hypotheses are compatible with our data. Since 3S1 is untenable on other grounds, decay via J/Psi Rho is favored, which implies C=+1 for the X(3872). Models for different J/Psi-Rho angular momenta L are considered. Flexibility in the models, especially the introduction of Rho-Omega interference, enable good descriptions of our data for both L=0 and 1.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures -- Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let