Predicted and actual 2-year structural and pain progression in the IMI-APPROACH knee osteoarthritis cohort

ClinicalTrials.gov, https://clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03883568[Abstract] Objectives: The IMI-APPROACH knee osteoarthritis study used machine learning (ML) to predict structural and/or pain progression, expressed by a structural (S) and pain (P) predicted-progression score, to select patients from existing cohorts. This study evaluates the actual 2-year progression within the IMI-APPROACH, in relation to the predicted-progression scores. Methods: Actual structural progression was measured using minimum joint space width (minJSW). Actual pain (progression) was evaluated using the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcomes Score (KOOS) pain questionnaire. Progression was presented as actual change (Δ) after 2 years, and as progression over 2 years based on a per patient fitted regression line using 0, 0.5, 1 and 2-year values. Differences in predicted-progression scores between actual progressors and non-progressors were evaluated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed and corresponding area under the curve (AUC) reported. Using Youden's index, optimal cut-offs were chosen to enable evaluation of both predicted-progression scores to identify actual progressors. Results: Actual structural progressors were initially assigned higher S predicted-progression scores compared with structural non-progressors. Likewise, actual pain progressors were assigned higher P predicted-progression scores compared with pain non-progressors. The AUC-ROC for the S predicted-progression score to identify actual structural progressors was poor (0.612 and 0.599 for Δ and regression minJSW, respectively). The AUC-ROC for the P predicted-progression score to identify actual pain progressors were good (0.817 and 0.830 for Δ and regression KOOS pain, respectively). Conclusion: The S and P predicted-progression scores as provided by the ML models developed and used for the selection of IMI-APPROACH patients were to some degree able to distinguish between actual progressors and non-progressors

Neuropathic Pain in the IMI-APPROACH Knee Osteoarthritis Cohort: Prevalence and Phenotyping

The study is registered under clinicaltrials.gov nr: NCT03883568.[Abstract] Objectives: Osteoarthritis (OA) patients with a neuropathic pain (NP) component may represent a specific phenotype. This study compares joint damage, pain and functional disability between knee OA patients with a likely NP component, and those without a likely NP component. Methods: Baseline data from the Innovative Medicines Initiative Applied Public-Private Research enabling OsteoArthritis Clinical Headway knee OA cohort study were used. Patients with a painDETECT score ≥19 (with likely NP component, n=24) were matched on a 1:2 ratio to patients with a painDETECT score ≤12 (without likely NP component), and similar knee and general pain (Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score pain and Short Form 36 pain). Pain, physical function and radiographic joint damage of multiple joints were determined and compared between OA patients with and without a likely NP component. Results: OA patients with painDETECT scores ≥19 had statistically significant less radiographic joint damage (p≤0.04 for Knee Images Digital Analysis parameters and Kellgren and Lawrence grade), but an impaired physical function (p<0.003 for all tests) compared with patients with a painDETECT score ≤12. In addition, more severe pain was found in joints other than the index knee (p≤0.001 for hips and hands), while joint damage throughout the body was not different. Conclusions: OA patients with a likely NP component, as determined with the painDETECT questionnaire, may represent a specific OA phenotype, where local and overall joint damage is not the main cause of pain and disability. Patients with this NP component will likely not benefit from general pain medication and/or disease-modifying OA drug (DMOAD) therapy. Reserved inclusion of these patients in DMOAD trials is advised in the quest for successful OA treatments

Genome-wide association study of developmental dysplasia of the hip identifies an association with GDF5

Developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) is the most common skeletal developmental disease. However, its genetic architecture is poorly understood. We conduct the largest DDH genome-wide association study to date and replicate our findings in independent cohorts. We find the heritable component of DDH attributable to common genetic variants to be 55% and distributed equally across the autosomal and X-chromosomes. We identify replicating evidence for association between GDF5 promoter variation and DDH (rs143384, effect allele A, odds ratio 1.44, 95% confidence interval 1.34–1.56, P = 3.55 × 10−22). Gene-based analysis implicates GDF5 (P = 9.24 × 10−12), UQCC1 (P = 1.86 × 10−10), MMP24 (P = 3.18 × 10−9), RETSAT (P = 3.70 × 10−8) and PDRG1 (P = 1.06 × 10−7) in DDH susceptibility. We find shared genetic architecture between DDH and hip osteoarthritis, but no predictive power of osteoarthritis polygenic risk score on DDH status, underscoring the complex nature of the two traits. We report a scalable, time-efficient recruitment strategy and establish for the first time to our knowledge a robust DDH genetic association locus at GDF5

Development and validation of a machine learning-supported strategy of patient selection for osteoarthritis clinical trials: the IMI-APPROACH study

Objectives: To efficiently assess the disease-modifying potential of new osteoarthritis treatments, clinical trials need progression-enriched patient populations. To assess whether the application of machine learning results in patient selection enrichment, we developed a machine learning recruitment strategy targeting progressive patients and validated it in the IMI-APPROACH knee osteoarthritis prospective study. Design: We designed a two-stage recruitment process supported by machine learning models trained to rank candidates by the likelihood of progression. First stage models used data from pre-existing cohorts to select patients for a screening visit. The second stage model used screening data to inform the final inclusion. The effectiveness of this process was evaluated using the actual 24-month progression. Results: From 3500 candidate patients, 433 with knee osteoarthritis were screened, 297 were enrolled, and 247 completed the 2-year follow-up visit. We observed progression related to pain (P, 30%), structure (S, 13%), and combined pain and structure (P ​+ ​S, 5%), and a proportion of non-progressors (N, 52%) ∼15% lower vs an unenriched population. Our model predicted these outcomes with AUC of 0.86 [95% CI, 0.81–0.90] for pain-related progression and AUC of 0.61 [95% CI, 0.52–0.70] for structure-related progression. Progressors were ranked higher than non-progressors for P ​+ ​S (median rank 65 vs 143, AUC = 0.75), P (median rank 77 vs 143, AUC = 0.71), and S patients (median rank 107 vs 143, AUC = 0.57). Conclusions: The machine learning-supported recruitment resulted in enriched selection of progressive patients. Further research is needed to improve structural progression prediction and assess this strategy in an interventional trial

Role of genetic testing for inherited prostate cancer risk: Philadelphia prostate cancer consensus conference 2017

Purpose: Guidelines are limited for genetic testing for prostate cancer (PCA). The goal of this conference was to develop an expert consensus-dri

Velocity-space sensitivity of the time-of-flight neutron spectrometer at JET

The velocity-space sensitivities of fast-ion diagnostics are often described by so-called weight functions. Recently, we formulated weight functions showing the velocity-space sensitivity of the often dominant beam-target part of neutron energy spectra. These weight functions for neutron emission spectrometry (NES) are independent of the particular NES diagnostic. Here we apply these NES weight functions to the time-of-flight spectrometer TOFOR at JET. By taking the instrumental response function of TOFOR into account, we calculate time-of-flight NES weight functions that enable us to directly determine the velocity-space sensitivity of a given part of a measured time-of-flight spectrum from TOFOR

Relationship of edge localized mode burst times with divertor flux loop signal phase in JET

A phase relationship is identified between sequential edge localized modes (ELMs) occurrence times in a set of H-mode tokamak plasmas to the voltage measured in full flux azimuthal loops in the divertor region. We focus on plasmas in the Joint European Torus where a steady H-mode is sustained over several seconds, during which ELMs are observed in the Be II emission at the divertor. The ELMs analysed arise from intrinsic ELMing, in that there is no deliberate intent to control the ELMing process by external means. We use ELM timings derived from the Be II signal to perform direct time domain analysis of the full flux loop VLD2 and VLD3 signals, which provide a high cadence global measurement proportional to the voltage induced by changes in poloidal magnetic flux. Specifically, we examine how the time interval between pairs of successive ELMs is linked to the time-evolving phase of the full flux loop signals. Each ELM produces a clear early pulse in the full flux loop signals, whose peak time is used to condition our analysis. The arrival time of the following ELM, relative to this pulse, is found to fall into one of two categories: (i) prompt ELMs, which are directly paced by the initial response seen in the flux loop signals; and (ii) all other ELMs, which occur after the initial response of the full flux loop signals has decayed in amplitude. The times at which ELMs in category (ii) occur, relative to the first ELM of the pair, are clustered at times when the instantaneous phase of the full flux loop signal is close to its value at the time of the first ELM

The Cholecystectomy As A Day Case (CAAD) Score: A Validated Score of Preoperative Predictors of Successful Day-Case Cholecystectomy Using the CholeS Data Set

Background Day-case surgery is associated with significant patient and cost benefits. However, only 43% of cholecystectomy patients are discharged home the same day. One hypothesis is day-case cholecystectomy rates, defined as patients discharged the same day as their operation, may be improved by better assessment of patients using standard preoperative variables. Methods Data were extracted from a prospectively collected data set of cholecystectomy patients from 166 UK and Irish hospitals (CholeS). Cholecystectomies performed as elective procedures were divided into main (75%) and validation (25%) data sets. Preoperative predictors were identified, and a risk score of failed day case was devised using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to validate the score in the validation data set. Results Of the 7426 elective cholecystectomies performed, 49% of these were discharged home the same day. Same-day discharge following cholecystectomy was less likely with older patients (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), higher ASA scores (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), complicated cholelithiasis (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.48), male gender (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58–0.74), previous acute gallstone-related admissions (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60) and preoperative endoscopic intervention (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.34–0.47). The CAAD score was developed using these variables. When applied to the validation subgroup, a CAAD score of ≤5 was associated with 80.8% successful day-case cholecystectomy compared with 19.2% associated with a CAAD score >5 (p < 0.001). Conclusions The CAAD score which utilises data readily available from clinic letters and electronic sources can predict same-day discharges following cholecystectomy

Open data from the third observing run of LIGO, Virgo, KAGRA, and GEO

The global network of gravitational-wave observatories now includes five detectors, namely LIGO Hanford, LIGO Livingston, Virgo, KAGRA, and GEO 600. These detectors collected data during their third observing run, O3, composed of three phases: O3a starting in 2019 April and lasting six months, O3b starting in 2019 November and lasting five months, and O3GK starting in 2020 April and lasting two weeks. In this paper we describe these data and various other science products that can be freely accessed through the Gravitational Wave Open Science Center at https://gwosc.org. The main data set, consisting of the gravitational-wave strain time series that contains the astrophysical signals, is released together with supporting data useful for their analysis and documentation, tutorials, as well as analysis software packages