Probabilistic divergence time estimation without branch lengths: dating the origins of dinosaurs, avian flight and crown birds

Branch lengths—measured in character changes—are an essential requirement of clock-based divergence estimation, regardless of whether the fossil calibrations used represent nodes or tips. However, a separate set of divergence time approaches are typically used to date palaeontological trees, which may lack such branch lengths. Among these methods, sophisticated probabilistic approaches have recently emerged, in contrast with simpler algorithms relying on minimum node ages. Here, using a novel phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs, we apply two such approaches to estimate divergence times for: (i) Dinosauria, (ii) Avialae (the earliest birds) and (iii) Neornithes (crown birds). We find: (i) the plausibility of a Permian origin for dinosaurs to be dependent on whether Nyasasaurus is the oldest dinosaur, (ii) a Middle to Late Jurassic origin of avian flight regardless of whether Archaeopteryx or Aurornis is considered the first bird and (iii) a Late Cretaceous origin for Neornithes that is broadly congruent with other node- and tip-dating estimates. Demonstrating the feasibility of probabilistic time-scaling further opens up divergence estimation to the rich histories of extinct biodiversity in the fossil record, even in the absence of detailed character data

Disease control across urban–rural gradients

Controlling the regional re-emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) after its initial spread in ever-changing personal contact networks and disease landscapes is a challenging task. In a landscape context, contact opportunities within and between populations are changing rapidly as lockdown measures are relaxed and a number of social activities re-activated. Using an individual-based metapopulation model, we explored the efficacy of different control strategies across an urban–rural gradient in Wales, UK. Our model shows that isolation of symptomatic cases or regional lockdowns in response to local outbreaks have limited efficacy unless the overall transmission rate is kept persistently low. Additional isolation of non-symptomatic infected individuals, who may be detected by effective test-and-trace strategies, is pivotal to reducing the overall epidemic size over a wider range of transmission scenarios. We define an ‘urban–rural gradient in epidemic size' as a correlation between regional epidemic size and connectivity within the region, with more highly connected urban populations experiencing relatively larger outbreaks. For interventions focused on regional lockdowns, the strength of such gradients in epidemic size increased with higher travel frequencies, indicating a reduced efficacy of the control measure in the urban regions under these conditions. When both non-symptomatic and symptomatic individuals are isolated or regional lockdown strategies are enforced, we further found the strongest urban–rural epidemic gradients at high transmission rates. This effect was reversed for strategies targeted at symptomatic individuals only. Our results emphasize the importance of test-and-trace strategies and maintaining low transmission rates for efficiently controlling SARS-CoV-2 spread, both at landscape scale and in urban areas

Quantum nondemolition measurement of mechanical motion quanta

The fields of opto- and electromechanics have facilitated numerous advances in the areas of precision measurement and sensing, ultimately driving the studies of mechanical systems into the quantum regime. To date, however, the quantization of the mechanical motion and the associated quantum jumps between phonon states remains elusive. For optomechanical systems, the coupling to the environment was shown to preclude the detection of the mechanical mode occupation, unless strong single photon optomechanical coupling is achieved. Here, we propose and analyse an electromechanical setup, which allows to overcome this limitation and resolve the energy levels of a mechanical oscillator. We find that the heating of the membrane, caused by the interaction with the environment and unwanted couplings, can be suppressed for carefully designed electromechanical systems. The results suggest that phonon number measurement is within reach for modern electromechanical setups.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures plus 24 pages, 11 figures supplemental materia

Health-related quality of life in diabetic patients and controls without diabetes in refugee camps in the Gaza strip: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Prevalence of diabetes mellitus is increasing in developed and developing countries. Diabetes is known to strongly affect the health-related quality of life (HRQOL). HRQOL is also influenced by living conditions. We analysed the effects of having diabetes on HRQOL under the living conditions in refugee camps in the Gaza strip. METHODS: We studied a sample of 197 diabetic patients who were recruited from three refugee camps in the Gaza strip and 197 age- and sex-matched controls living in the same camps. To assess HRQOL, we used the World Health Organization Quality of Life questionnaire (WHOQOL-BREF) including four domains (physical health, psychological, social relations and environment). Domain scores were compared for cases (diabetic patients) and controls (persons without diabetes) and the impact of socio-economic factors was evaluated in both groups. RESULTS: All domains were strongly reduced in diabetic patients as compared to controls, with stronger effects in physical health (36.7 vs. 75.9 points of the 0–100 score) and psychological domains (34.8 vs. 70.0) and weaker effects in social relationships (52.4 vs. 71.4) and environment domains (23.4 vs. 36.2). The impact of diabetes on HRQOL was especially severe among females and older subjects (above 50 years). Low socioeconomic status had a strong negative impact on HRQOL in the younger age group (<50 years). CONCLUSION: HRQOL is strongly reduced in diabetic patients living in refugee camps in the Gaza strip. Women and older patients are especially affected

Load-sharing policies in parallel simulation of agent-based demographic models

Execution parallelism in agent-Based Simulation (ABS) allows to deal with complex/large-scale models. This raises the need for runtime environments able to fully exploit hardware parallelism, while jointly offering ABS-suited programming abstractions. In this paper, we target last-generation Parallel Discrete Event Simulation (PDES) platforms for multicore systems. We discuss a programming model to support both implicit (in-place access) and explicit (message passing) interactions across concurrent Logical Processes (LPs). We discuss different load-sharing policies combining event rate and implicit/explicit LPs’ interactions. We present a performance study conducted on a synthetic test case, representative of a class of agent-based models.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

A hypothetico-deductive approach to assessing the social function of chemical signalling in a non-territorial solitary carnivore

The function of chemical signalling in non-territorial solitary carnivores is still relatively unclear. Studies on territorial solitary and social carnivores have highlighted odour capability and utility, however the social function of chemical signalling in wild carnivore populations operating dominance hierarchy social systems has received little attention. We monitored scent marking and investigatory behaviour of wild brown bears Ursus arctos, to test multiple hypotheses relating to the social function of chemical signalling. Camera traps were stationed facing bear ‘marking trees’ to document behaviour by different age sex classes in different seasons. We found evidence to support the hypothesis that adult males utilise chemical signalling to communicate dominance to other males throughout the non-denning period. Adult females did not appear to utilise marking trees to advertise oestrous state during the breeding season. The function of marking by subadult bears is somewhat unclear, but may be related to the behaviour of adult males. Subadults investigated trees more often than they scent marked during the breeding season, which could be a result of an increased risk from adult males. Females with young showed an increase in marking and investigation of trees outside of the breeding season. We propose the hypothesis that females engage their dependent young with marking trees from a young age, at a relatively ‘safe’ time of year. Memory, experience, and learning at a young age, may all contribute towards odour capabilities in adult bears

Binary orbits as the driver of γ-ray emission and mass ejection in classical novae

Classical novae are the most common astrophysical thermonuclear explosions, occurring on the surfaces of white dwarf stars accreting gas from companions in binary star systems. Novae typically expel �10,000 solar masses of material at velocities exceeding 1,000 km/s. However, the mechanism of mass ejection in novae is poorly understood, and could be dominated by the impulsive flash of the thermonuclear runaway, prolonged optically thick winds, or binary interaction with the nova envelope. Classical novae are now routinely detected in GeV gamma-rays, suggesting that relativistic particles are accelerated by strong shocks in nova ejecta. Here we present high-resolution imaging of the gamma-ray-emitting nova V959 Mon at radio wavelengths, showing that its ejecta were shaped by binary motion: some gas was expelled rapidly along the poles as a wind from the white dwarf, while denser material drifted out along the equatorial plane, propelled by orbital motion. At the interface between the equatorial and polar regions, we observe synchrotron emission indicative of shocks and relativistic particle acceleration, thereby pinpointing the location of gamma-ray production. Binary shaping of the nova ejecta and associated internal shocks are expected to be widespread among novae, explaining why many novae are gamma-ray emitters

Effects of short-term treatment with atorvastatin in smokers with asthma - a randomized controlled trial

&lt;b&gt;Background&lt;/b&gt; The immune modulating properties of statins may benefit smokers with asthma. We tested the hypothesis that short-term treatment with atorvastatin improves lung function or indices of asthma control in smokers with asthma.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt; Seventy one smokers with mild to moderate asthma were recruited to a randomized double-blind parallel group trial comparing treatment with atorvastatin (40 mg per day) versus placebo for 4 weeks. After 4 weeks treatment inhaled beclometasone (400 ug per day) was added to both treatment arms for a further 4 weeks. The primary outcome was morning peak expiratory flow after 4 weeks treatment. Secondary outcome measures included indices of asthma control and airway inflammation.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt; At 4 weeks, there was no improvement in the atorvastatin group compared to the placebo group in morning peak expiratory flow [-10.67 L/min, 95% CI -38.70 to 17.37, p=0.449], but there was an improvement with atorvastatin in asthma quality of life score [0.52, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.87 p=0.005]. There was no significant improvement with atorvastatin and inhaled beclometasone compared to inhaled beclometasone alone in outcome measures at 8 weeks.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusions&lt;/b&gt; Short-term treatment with atorvastatin does not alter lung function but may improve asthma quality of life in smokers with mild to moderate asthma. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT0046382

Heterogeneities in leishmania infantum infection : using skin parasite burdens to identify highly infectious dogs

Background: The relationships between heterogeneities in host infection and infectiousness (transmission to arthropod vectors) can provide important insights for disease management. Here, we quantify heterogeneities in Leishmania infantum parasite numbers in reservoir and non-reservoir host populations, and relate this to their infectiousness during natural infection. Tissue parasite number was evaluated as a potential surrogate marker of host transmission potential. Methods: Parasite numbers were measured by qPCR in bone marrow and ear skin biopsies of 82 dogs and 34 crab-eating foxes collected during a longitudinal study in Amazon Brazil, for which previous data was available on infectiousness (by xenodiagnosis) and severity of infection. Results: Parasite numbers were highly aggregated both between samples and between individuals. In dogs, total parasite abundance and relative numbers in ear skin compared to bone marrow increased with the duration and severity of infection. Infectiousness to the sandfly vector was associated with high parasite numbers; parasite number in skin was the best predictor of being infectious. Crab-eating foxes, which typically present asymptomatic infection and are non-infectious, had parasite numbers comparable to those of non-infectious dogs. Conclusions: Skin parasite number provides an indirect marker of infectiousness, and could allow targeted control particularly of highly infectious dogs

Diseases of the rich? The social patterning of hypertension in six low- and middle-income countries

This paper identifies a general perception among development policymakers that health conditions such as hypertension and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) disproportionately affect privileged socioeconomic groups. The paper argues that this framing of the issue is derived more from established discourses and institutional dynamics than from evidence. The paper then assesses the validity of this view, with reference to the social patterning of hypertension in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, the Russian Federation and South Africa. Using data for adults aged 50+ from the WHO Survey of Ageing and Adult Health, it finds the social patterning of hypertension prevalence varies markedly between the study countries, but that hypertension awareness and control rates are generally lower for less-advantaged groups. This reveals a need to challenge misleading representations of NCD pandemics and for interventions that specifically target the poor