An East Siberian ice shelf during the Late Pleistocene glaciations: Numerical reconstructions

A recent data campaign in the East Siberian Sea has revealed evidence of grounded and floating ice dynamics in regions of up to 1000 m water depth, and which are attributed to glaciations older than the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kyrs BP). The main hypothesis based on this evidence is that a small ice cap developed over Beringia and expanded over the East Siberian continental margin during some of the Late Pleistocene glaciations. Other similar evidence of ice dynamics that have been previously collected on the shallow continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean have been attributed to the penultimate glaciation, i.e. Marine Isotopes Stage 6 (z 140 kyrs BP). We use an ice sheet model, forced by two previously simulated MIS 6 glacial maximum climates, to carry out a series of sensitivity experiments testing the impact of dynamics and mass-balance related parameters on the geometry of the East Siberian ice cap and ice shelf. Results show that the ice cap developing over Beringia connects to the Eurasian ice sheet in all simulations and that its volume ranges between 6 and 14 m SLE, depending on the climate forcing. This ice cap generates an ice shelf of dimensions comparable with or larger than the present-day Ross ice shelf in West Antarctica. Although the ice shelf extent strongly depends on the ice flux through the grounding line, it is particularly sensitive to the choice of the calving and basal melting parameters. Finally, inhibiting a merging of the Beringia ice cap with the Eurasian ice sheet affects the expansion of the ice shelf only in the simulations where the ice cap fluxes are not large enough to compensate for the fluxes coming from the Eurasian ice sheet

Fire hazard modulation by long-term dynamics in land cover and dominant forest type in eastern and central Europe

Wildfire occurrence is influenced by climate, vegetation and human activities. A key challenge for understanding the risk of fires is quantifying the mediating effect of vegetation on fire regimes. Here, we explore the relative importance of Holocene land cover, land use, dominant functional forest type, and climate dynamics on biomass burning in temperate and boreo-nemoral regions of central and eastern Europe over the past 12 kyr. We used an extensive data set of Holocene pollen and sedimentary charcoal records, in combination with climate simulations and statistical modelling. Biomass burning was highest during the early Holocene and lowest during the mid-Holocene in all three ecoregions (Atlantic, continental and boreo-nemoral) but was more spatially variable over the past 3–4 kyr. Although climate explained a significant variance in biomass burning during the early Holocene, tree cover was consistently the highest predictor of past biomass burning over the past 8 kyr. In temperate forests, biomass burning was high at ~ 45% tree cover and decreased to a minimum at between 60% and 70% tree cover. In needleleaf-dominated forests, biomass burning was highest at ~60 %–65%tree cover and steeply declined at > 65% tree cover. Biomass burning also increased when arable lands and grasslands reached ~15 %–20 %, although this relationship was variable depending on land use practice via ignition sources, fuel type and quantities. Higher tree cover reduced the amount of solar radiation reaching the forest floor and could provide moister, more wind-protected microclimates underneath canopies, thereby decreasing fuel flammability. Tree cover at which biomass burning increased appears to be driven by warmer and drier summer conditions during the early Holocene and by increasing human influence on land cover during the late Holocene. We suggest that longterm fire hazard may be effectively reduced through land cover management, given that land cover has controlled fire regimes under the dynamic climates of the Holocene

Greenland Geothermal Heat Flow Database and Map (Version 1)

We compile and analyze all available geothermal heat flow measurements collected in and around Greenland into a new database of 419 sites and generate an accompanying spatial map. This database includes 290 sites previously reported by the International Heat Flow Commission (IHFC), for which we now standardize measurement and metadata quality. This database also includes 129 new sites, which have not been previously reported by the IHFC. These new sites consist of 88 offshore measurements and 41 onshore measurements, of which 24 are subglacial. We employ machine learning to synthesize these in situ measurements into a gridded geothermal heat flow model that is consistent across both continental and marine areas in and around Greenland. This model has a native horizontal resolution of 55ĝ€¯km. In comparison to five existing Greenland geothermal heat flow models, our model has the lowest mean geothermal heat flow for Greenland onshore areas. Our modeled heat flow in central North Greenland is highly sensitive to whether the NGRIP (North GReenland Ice core Project) elevated heat flow anomaly is included in the training dataset. Our model's most distinctive spatial feature is pronounced low geothermal heat flow (<ĝ€¯40ĝ€¯mWĝ€¯m-2) across the North Atlantic Craton of southern Greenland. Crucially, our model does not show an area of elevated heat flow that might be interpreted as remnant from the Icelandic plume track. Finally, we discuss the substantial influence of paleoclimatic and other corrections on geothermal heat flow measurements in Greenland. The in situ measurement database and gridded heat flow model, as well as other supporting materials, are freely available from the GEUS Dataverse (10.22008/FK2/F9P03L; Colgan and Wansing, 2021).publishedVersionPeer reviewe

The mutual interaction between the time-mean atmospheric circulation and continental-scale ice sheets

Geomorphological evidence of glaciations exist for the Last Glacial Maximum (about 20 kyr ago). At this time, both North America and Eurasia were covered by extensive ice sheets which are both absent today. However, the temporal and spatial evolution of the ice sheets from the previous interglacial up to the fully-glaciated conditions at LGM is still unresolved and remains a vexing question in climate dynamics. The evolution of ice sheets is essentially controlled by the prevailing climate conditions. On glacial time-scales, the climate is shaped the by the orbital variations of the Earth, but also by internal feedbacks within the climate system. In particular, the ice sheets themselves have the potential to change the climate within they evolve. This thesis focuses on the interactions between ice sheets and the time-mean atmospheric circulation (stationary waves). It is studied how the stationary waves, which are forced by the ice-sheet topography, influence ice-sheet evolution through changing the near-surface air temperature. In this thesis, it is shown that the degree of linearity of the atmospheric response controls to what extent the stationary waves can reorganise the structure of ice sheet. Provided that the response is linear, the stationary waves constitute a leading-order feedback, which serves to increase the volume and deform the shape of ice sheets. If the stationary-wave response to ice-sheet topography is nonlinear in character, the impact on the ice-sheet evolution tends to be weak. However, it is further shown that the amplitude of the nonlinear topographical response, and hence its effect on the ice-sheet evolution, can be significantly enhanced if thermal cooling over the ice sheets is taken into account.At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 3: Submitted

Validation of the dynamical core of the Portable University Model of the Atmosphere (PUMA)

A widely used dynamical core, PUMA (Portable University Model of the Atmosphere), is validated using the test case specifications introduced by Polvani et al. (2004). Dynamical cores are essential in every presently used AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model), and deal with the dry, adiabatic primitive equations. The validation process is important in order to establish that the dynamical core is free from bugs, and thereby confirm the validity AGCMs. The test case proposed by Polvani et al. (2004) consists of a 12 day time-integrated slightly perturbed, baroclinically unstable, midlatitude jet, and is, together with derivations of the model equations, completely described in this M. Sc. thesis. The initial condition for the test case is implemented in PUMA, to a modification in order to carry out the same test case as in Polvani et al. (2004). The temperature and vorticity fields are presented and compared. The numerically converged solutions from PUMA are in strong accordance with the solutions from Polvani et al. (2004), despite different numerical schemes to solve the equations. This supports the validity and reliability for future studies with PUMA.En torr, adiabatisk primitiv ekvationsmodell, PUMA (Portable University Model of the Atmosphere), valideras genom att jämföra dess lösningar med resultaten som presenterades av Polvani et al. (2004). Primitiva ekvationsmodeller är en viktig del i dagens allmänna cirkulationsmodeller. Valideringsprocessen är viktig för att fastslå att de primitiva ekvationsmodellerna fungerar utan buggar, och därigenom bekräfta att en viktig del av de allmänna cirkulationsmodellerna fungerar tillfredsställande. Initialtillståndet som presenterades av Polvani et al. (2004) består av en 12 dagars tids-integrerad, något perturberad, baroklint instabil polarjet. Initialtillståndet är, tillsammans med härledningarna av modellekvationerna, fullständigt beskriven i detta examensarbete. Initialtillståndet implementeras i PUMA, vilken har modifierats för att konstruera samma testspecifikationer som i Polvani et al. (2004). Temperatur- och virvlingsfälten presenteras och jämförs. De numeriskt konvergerade lösningarna från PUMA stämmer väl överrens med lösningarna från Polvani et al. (2004), trots att olika numeriska scheman använts för att lösa ekvationerna. Detta stödjer validiteten hos PUMA, vilket ökar tillförlitligheten i framtida studier med modellen

The impact of the North American glacial topography on the evolution of the Eurasian ice sheet over the last glacial cycle

Modeling studies have shown that the continental-scale ice sheets in North America and Eurasia in the last glacial cycle had a large influence on the atmospheric circulation and thus yielded a climate distinctly different from the present. However, to what extent the two ice sheets influenced each others' growth trajectories remains largely unexplored. In this study we investigate how an ice sheet in North America influences the downstream evolution of the Eurasian ice sheet, using a thermomechanical ice-sheet model forced by climate data from atmospheric snapshot experiments of three distinctly different phases of the last glacial cycle: the Marine Isotope Stages 5b, 4, and 2 (Last Glacial Maximum – LGM). Owing to the large uncertainty associated with glacial changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, each atmospheric snapshot experiment was conducted using two distinctly different ocean heat transport representations. Our results suggest that changes in the North American paleo-topography may have largely controlled the zonal distribution of the Eurasian ice sheet. In the MIS4 and LGM experiments, the Eurasian ice sheet migrates westward towards the Atlantic sector – largely consistent with geological data and contemporary ice-sheet reconstructions – due to a low wave number stationary wave response, which yields a cooling in Europe and a warming in northeastern Siberia. The expansion of the North American ice sheet between MIS4 and the LGM amplifies the Siberian warm anomaly, which limits the glaciation there and may therefore help explain the progressive westward migration of the Eurasian ice sheet in this time period. The ocean heat transport only has a small influence on the stationary wave response to the North American glacial topography; however, because temperature anomalies have a smaller influence on an ice sheet's ablation in a colder climate than in a warmer one, the impact of the North American glacial topography on the Eurasian ice-sheet evolution is reduced for colder surface conditions in the North Atlantic. While the Eurasian ice sheet in the MIS4 and the LGM experiments appears to be in equilibrium with the simulated climate conditions, the MIS5b climate forcing is too warm to grow an ice sheet in Eurasia. First-order sensitivity experiments suggest that the MIS5b ice sheet was established during preceding colder stages

Effect of changing vegetation and precipitation on denudation - Part 1: Predicted vegetation composition and cover over the last 21 thousand years along the Coastal Cordillera of Chile

Vegetation is crucial for modulating rates of denudation and landscape evolution, as it stabilizes and protects hillslopes and intercepts rainfall. Climate conditions and the atmospheric CO2 concentration, hereafter [CO2], influence the establishment and performance of plants; thus, these factors have a direct influence on vegetation cover. In addition, vegetation dynamics (competition for space, light, nutrients, and water) and stochastic events (mortality and fires) determine the state of vegetation, response times to environmental perturbations and successional development. In spite of this, state-of-the-art reconstructions of past transient vegetation changes have not been accounted for in landscape evolution models. Here, a widely used dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) was used to simulate vegetation composition/cover and surface runoff in Chile for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene (MH) and the present day (PD). In addition, transient vegetation simulations were carried out from the LGM to PD for four sites in the Coastal Cordillera of Chile at a spatial and temporal resolution adequate for coupling with landscape evolution models. A new landform mode was introduced to LPJ-GUESS to enable a better simulation of vegetation dynamics and state at a sub-pixel resolution and to allow for future coupling with landscape evolution models operating at different spatial scales. Using a regionally adapted parameterization, LPJ-GUESS was capable of reproducing PD potential natural vegetation along the strong climatic gradients of Chile, and simulated vegetation cover was also in line with satellite-based observations. Simulated vegetation during the LGM differed markedly from PD conditions. Coastal cold temperate rainforests were displaced northward by about 5◦ and the tree line and vegetation zones were at lower elevations than PD. Transient vegetation simulations indicate a marked shift in vegetation composition starting with the past glacial warming that coincides with a rise in [CO2]. Vegetation cover between the sites ranged from 13 % (LGM: 8 %) to 81 % (LGM: 73 %) for the northern Pan de Azúcar and southern Nahuelbuta sites, respectively, but did not vary by more than 10 % over the 21 000 year simulation. A sensitivity study suggests that [CO2] is an important driver of vegetation changes and, thereby, potentially landscape evolution. Comparisons with other paleoclimate model drivers highlight the importance of model input on simulated vegetation. In the near future, we will directly couple LPJ-GUESS to a landscape evolution model (see companion paper) to build a fully coupled dynamic-vegetation/landscape evolution model that is forced with paleoclimate data from atmospheric general circulation models

Origin of the forest steppe and exceptional grassland diversity in Transylvania (central-eastern Europe)

AIM: The forest steppe of the Transylvanian Plain is a landscape of exceptionally diverse steppe‐like and semi‐natural grasslands. Is this vegetation a remnant of a once continuous temperate forest extensively cleared by humans, or has the area, since the last glacial, always been a forest steppe? Understanding the processes that drive temperate grassland formation is important because effective management of this biome is critical to the conservation of the European cultural landscape. LOCATION: Lake Stiucii, north‐western Romania, central‐eastern Europe. METHODS: We analysed multi‐proxy variables (pollen, coprophilous fungi, plant macroremains, macrocharcoal) from a 55,000 year discontinuous sequence (c. 55,000–35,000; 13,000–0 cal. yr bp), integrating models of pollen‐based vegetation cover, biome reconstruction, global atmospheric simulations and archaeological records. RESULTS: Needleleaf woodland occurred during glacial Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, but contracted at the end of this period. Forest coverage of c. 55% (early Holocene) and 65% (mid‐Holocene) prevailed through the Holocene, but Bronze Age humans extensively cleared forests after 3700 cal. yr bp. Forest coverage was most widespread between 8600 and 3700 cal. yr bp, whereas grasses, steppe and xerothermic forbs were most extensive between 11,700 and 8600 cal. yr bp and during the last 3700 cal. yr bp. Cerealia pollen indicate the presence of arable agriculture by c. 7000 cal. yr bp. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We have provided the first unequivocal evidence for needleleaf woodland during glacial MIS 3 in this region. Extensive forests prevailed prior to 3700 cal. yr bp, challenging the hypothesis that the Transylvanian lowlands were never wooded following the last glaciation. However, these forests were never fully closed either, reflecting dry growing season conditions, recurrent fires and anthropogenic impacts, which have favoured grassland persistence throughout the Holocene. The longevity of natural and semi‐natural grasslands in the region may explain their current exceptional biodiversity. This longer‐term perspective implies that future climatic warming and associated fire will maintain these grasslands.status: publishe