Borrowing from historical control data in a Bayesian time-to-event model with flexible baseline hazard function

There is currently a focus on statistical methods which can use historical trial information to help accelerate the discovery, development and delivery of medicine. Bayesian methods can be constructed so that the borrowing is "dynamic" in the sense that the similarity of the data helps to determine how much information is used. In the time to event setting with one historical data set, a popular model for a range of baseline hazards is the piecewise exponential model where the time points are fixed and a borrowing structure is imposed on the model. Although convenient for implementation this approach effects the borrowing capability of the model. We propose a Bayesian model which allows the time points to vary and a dependency to be placed between the baseline hazards. This serves to smooth the posterior baseline hazard improving both model estimation and borrowing characteristics. We explore a variety of prior structures for the borrowing within our proposed model and assess their performance against established approaches. We demonstrate that this leads to improved type I error in the presence of prior data conflict and increased power. We have developed accompanying software which is freely available and enables easy implementation of the approach.Comment: Sampler for regression coefficients (beta and beta_0) updated on page 5 of the Supplementary Materia

Can inflationary models of cosmic perturbations evade the secondary oscillation test?

We consider the consequences of an observed Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) temperature anisotropy spectrum containing no secondary oscillations. While such a spectrum is generally considered to be a robust signature of active structure formation, we show that such a spectrum {\em can} be produced by (very unusual) inflationary models or other passive evolution models. However, we show that for all these passive models the characteristic oscillations would show up in other observable spectra. Our work shows that when CMB polarization and matter power spectra are taken into account secondary oscillations are indeed a signature of even these very exotic passive models. We construct a measure of the observability of secondary oscillations in a given experiment, and show that even with foregrounds both the MAP and \pk satellites should be able to distinguish between models with and without oscillations. Thus we conclude that inflationary and other passive models can {\em not} evade the secondary oscillation test.Comment: Final version accepted for publication in PRD. Minor improvements have been made to the discussion and new data has been included. The conclusions are unchagne

Immune or genetic-mediated disruption of CASPR2 causes pain hypersensitivity due to enhanced primary afferent excitability

Human autoantibodies to contactin-associated protein-like 2 (CASPR2) are often associated with neuropathic pain, and CASPR2 mutations have been linked to autism spectrum disorders, in which sensory dysfunction is increasingly recognized. Human CASPR2 autoantibodies, when injected into mice, were peripherally restricted and resulted in mechanical pain-related hypersensitivity in the absence of neural injury. We therefore investigated the mechanism by which CASPR2 modulates nociceptive function. Mice lacking CASPR2 (Cntnap2 ) demonstrated enhanced pain-related hypersensitivity to noxious mechanical stimuli, heat, and algogens. Both primary afferent excitability and subsequent nociceptive transmission within the dorsal horn were increased in Cntnap2 mice. Either immune or genetic-mediated ablation of CASPR2 enhanced the excitability of DRG neurons in a cell-autonomous fashion through regulation of Kv1 channel expression at the soma membrane. This is the first example of passive transfer of an autoimmune peripheral neuropathic pain disorder and demonstrates that CASPR2 has a key role in regulating cell-intrinsic dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neuron excitability

Exploring the causal effect of maternal pregnancy adiposity on offspring adiposity: Mendelian randomisation using polygenic risk scores.

BACKGROUND: Greater maternal adiposity before or during pregnancy is associated with greater offspring adiposity throughout childhood, but the extent to which this is due to causal intrauterine or periconceptional mechanisms remains unclear. Here, we use Mendelian randomisation (MR) with polygenic risk scores (PRS) to investigate whether associations between maternal pre-/early pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and offspring adiposity from birth to adolescence are causal. METHODS: We undertook confounder adjusted multivariable (MV) regression and MR using mother-offspring pairs from two UK cohorts: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and Born in Bradford (BiB). In ALSPAC and BiB, the outcomes were birthweight (BW; N = 9339) and BMI at age 1 and 4 years (N = 8659 to 7575). In ALSPAC only we investigated BMI at 10 and 15 years (N = 4476 to 4112) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) determined fat mass index (FMI) from age 10-18 years (N = 2659 to 3855). We compared MR results from several PRS, calculated from maternal non-transmitted alleles at between 29 and 80,939 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). RESULTS: MV and MR consistently showed a positive association between maternal BMI and BW, supporting a moderate causal effect. For adiposity at most older ages, although MV estimates indicated a strong positive association, MR estimates did not support a causal effect. For the PRS with few SNPs, MR estimates were statistically consistent with the null, but had wide confidence intervals so were often also statistically consistent with the MV estimates. In contrast, the largest PRS yielded MR estimates with narrower confidence intervals, providing strong evidence that the true causal effect on adolescent adiposity is smaller than the MV estimates (Pdifference = 0.001 for 15-year BMI). This suggests that the MV estimates are affected by residual confounding, therefore do not provide an accurate indication of the causal effect size. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that higher maternal pre-/early-pregnancy BMI is not a key driver of higher adiposity in the next generation. Thus, they support interventions that target the whole population for reducing overweight and obesity, rather than a specific focus on women of reproductive age

Thirty years after Alma-Ata: a systematic review of the impact of community health workers delivering curative interventions against malaria, pneumonia and diarrhoea on child mortality and morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND: Over thirty years have passed since the Alma-Ata Declaration on primary health care in 1978. Many governments in the first decade following the declaration responded by developing national programmes of community health workers (CHWs), but evaluations of these often demonstrated poor outcomes. As many CHW programmes have responded to the HIV/AIDS pandemic, international interest in them has returned and their role in the response to other diseases should be examined carefully so that lessons can be applied to their new roles. Over half of the deaths in African children under five years of age are due to malaria, diarrhoea and pneumonia - a situation which could be addressed through the use of cheap and effective interventions delivered by CHWs. However, to date there is very little evidence from randomised controlled trials of the impacts of CHW programmes on child mortality in Africa. Evidence from non-randomised controlled studies has not previously been reviewed systematically. METHODS: We searched databases of published and unpublished studies for RCTs and non-randomised studies evaluating CHW programmes delivering curative treatments, with or without preventive components, for malaria, diarrhoea or pneumonia, in children in sub-Saharan Africa from 1987 to 2007. The impact of these programmes on morbidity or mortality in children under six years of age was reviewed. A descriptive analysis of interventional and contextual factors associated with these impacts was attempted. RESULTS: The review identified seven studies evaluating CHWs, delivering a range of interventions. Limited descriptive data on programmes, contexts or process outcomes for these CHW programmes were available. CHWs in national programmes achieved large mortality reductions of 63% and 36% respectively, when insecticide-treated nets and anti-malarial chemoprophylaxis were delivered, in addition to curative interventions. CONCLUSIONS: CHW programmes could potentially achieve large gains in child survival in sub-Saharan Africa if these programmes were implemented at scale. Large-scale rigorous studies, including RCTs, are urgently needed to provide policymakers with more evidence on the effects of CHWs delivering these interventions

Population genomics of the critically endangered kākāpō

Summary The kākāpō is a flightless parrot endemic to New Zealand. Once common in the archipelago, only 201 individuals remain today, most of them descending from an isolated island population. We report the first genome-wide analyses of the species, including a high-quality genome assembly for kākāpō, one of the first chromosome-level reference genomes sequenced by the Vertebrate Genomes Project (VGP). We also sequenced and analyzed 35 modern genomes from the sole surviving island population and 14 genomes from the extinct mainland population. While theory suggests that such a small population is likely to have accumulated deleterious mutations through genetic drift, our analyses on the impact of the long-term small population size in kākāpō indicate that present-day island kākāpō have a reduced number of harmful mutations compared to mainland individuals. We hypothesize that this reduced mutational load is due to the island population having been subjected to a combination of genetic drift and purging of deleterious mutations, through increased inbreeding and purifying selection, since its isolation from the mainland ∼10,000 years ago. Our results provide evidence that small populations can survive even when isolated for hundreds of generations. This work provides key insights into kākāpō breeding and recovery and more generally into the application of genetic tools in conservation efforts for endangered species

Sense of Coherence and Gambling: Exploring the Relationship Between Sense of Coherence, Gambling Behaviour and Gambling-Related Harm

Understanding why some people experience problems with gambling whilst others are able to restrict gambling to recreational levels is still largely unexplained. One potential explanation is through salutogenesis, which is a health promotion approach of understanding factors which move people towards health rather than disease. An important aspect of salutogenesis is sense of coherence. Individuals with stronger sense of coherence perceive their environment as comprehensible, manageable and meaningful. The present study examined the relationship of individuals’ sense of coherence on their gambling behaviour and experience of gambling related harm. This exploratory study utilised an archival dataset (n = 1236) from an online, cross sectional survey of people who had experienced negative consequences from gambling. In general, a stronger sense of coherence was related to lower problem gambling severity. When gambling behaviour was controlled for, sense of coherence was significantly related to the experience of individual gambling harms. A strong sense of coherence can be seen as a protective factor against problematic gambling behaviour, and subsequent gambling related harms. These findings support the value of both primary and tertiary prevention strategies that strengthen sense of coherence as a harm minimisation strategy. The present study demonstrates the potential value of, and provides clear direction for, considering sense of coherence in order to understand gambling-related issues.This study was funded by the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, Grant VRGF1-13

Marketing as a means to transformative social conflict resolution: lessons from transitioning war economies and the Colombian coffee marketing system

Social conflicts are ubiquitous to the human condition and occur throughout markets, marketing processes, and marketing systems.When unchecked or unmitigated, social conflict can have devastating consequences for consumers, marketers, and societies, especially when conflict escalates to war. In this article, the authors offer a systemic analysis of the Colombian war economy, with its conflicted shadow and coping markets, to show how a growing network of fair-trade coffee actors has played a key role in transitioning the country’s war economy into a peace economy. They particularly draw attention to the sources of conflict in this market and highlight four transition mechanisms — i.e., empowerment, communication, community building and regulation — through which marketers can contribute to peacemaking and thus produce mutually beneficial outcomes for consumers and society. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for marketing theory, practice, and public policy

The First Post-Kepler Brightness Dips of KIC 8462852

We present a photometric detection of the first brightness dips of the unique variable star KIC 8462852 since the end of the Kepler space mission in 2013 May. Our regular photometric surveillance started in October 2015, and a sequence of dipping began in 2017 May continuing on through the end of 2017, when the star was no longer visible from Earth. We distinguish four main 1-2.5% dips, named "Elsie," "Celeste," "Skara Brae," and "Angkor", which persist on timescales from several days to weeks. Our main results so far are: (i) there are no apparent changes of the stellar spectrum or polarization during the dips; (ii) the multiband photometry of the dips shows differential reddening favoring non-grey extinction. Therefore, our data are inconsistent with dip models that invoke optically thick material, but rather they are in-line with predictions for an occulter consisting primarily of ordinary dust, where much of the material must be optically thin with a size scale <<1um, and may also be consistent with models invoking variations intrinsic to the stellar photosphere. Notably, our data do not place constraints on the color of the longer-term "secular" dimming, which may be caused by independent processes, or probe different regimes of a single process