The increasing threat to stratospheric ozone from dichloromethane.

It is well established that anthropogenic chlorine-containing chemicals contribute to ozone layer depletion. The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol has led to reductions in the atmospheric concentration of many ozone-depleting gases, such as chlorofluorocarbons. As a consequence, stratospheric chlorine levels are declining and ozone is projected to return to levels observed pre-1980 later this century. However, recent observations show the atmospheric concentration of dichloromethane-an ozone-depleting gas not controlled by the Montreal Protocol-is increasing rapidly. Using atmospheric model simulations, we show that although currently modest, the impact of dichloromethane on ozone has increased markedly in recent years and if these increases continue into the future, the return of Antarctic ozone to pre-1980 levels could be substantially delayed. Sustained growth in dichloromethane would therefore offset some of the gains achieved by the Montreal Protocol, further delaying recovery of Earth's ozone layer

Seasonal evolution of supraglacial lakes on an East Antarctic outlet glacier

Supraglacial lakes are known to influence ice melt and ice flow on the Greenland ice sheet and potentially cause ice shelf disintegration on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, however, our understanding of their behavior and impact is more limited. Using >150 optical satellite images and meteorological records from 2000 to 2013, we provide the first multiyear analysis of lake evolution on Langhovde Glacier, Dronning Maud Land (69°11′S, 39°32′E). We mapped 7990 lakes and 855 surface channels up to 18.1 km inland (~670 m above sea level) from the grounding line and document three pathways of lake demise: (i) refreezing, (ii) drainage to the englacial/subglacial environment (on the floating ice), and (iii) overflow into surface channels (on both the floating and grounded ice). The parallels between these mechanisms, and those observed on Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula, suggest that lakes may similarly affect rates and patterns of ice melt, ice flow, and ice shelf disintegration in East Antarctica

A new model for supraglacial hydrology evolution and drainage for the Greenland ice sheet (SHED v1.0)

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is losing mass as the climate warms through both increased meltwater runoff and ice discharge at marine terminating sectors. At the ice sheet surface, meltwater runoff forms a dynamic supraglacial hydrological system which includes stream/river networks and large supraglacial lakes (SGLs). Streams/rivers can route water into crevasses, or into supraglacial lakes with crevasses underneath, both of which can then hydrofracture to the ice sheet base, providing a mechanism for the surface meltwater to access the bed. Understanding where, when and how much meltwater is transferred to the bed is important because variability in meltwater supply to the bed can increase ice flow speeds, potentially impacting the hypsometry of the ice sheet in grounded sectors, and iceberg discharge to the ocean. Here we present a new, physically-based, supraglacial hydrology model for the GrIS that is able to simulate a) surface meltwater routing and SGL filling, b) rapid meltwater drainage to the ice-sheet bed via the hydrofracture of surface crevasses both in, and outside of, SGLs, c) slow SGL drainage via overflow in supraglacial meltwater channels and, by offline coupling with a second model, d) the freezing and unfreezing of SGLs from autumn to spring. We call the model Supraglacial Hydrology Evolution and Drainage (or SHED). We apply the model to three study regions in South West Greenland between 2015 and 2019 inclusive and evaluate its performance with respect to observed supraglacial lake extents, and proglacial discharge measurements. We show that the model reproduces 80 % of observed lake locations, and provides good agreement with observations in terms of the temporal evolution of lake extent. Modelled moulin density values are in keeping with those previously published and seasonal and inter-annual variability in proglacial discharge agrees well with that observed, though the observations lag the model by a few days since they include transit time through the subglacial system and the model does not. Our simulations suggest that lake drainage behaviours may be more complex than traditional models suggest, with lakes in our model draining through a combination of both overflow and hydrofracture, and some lakes draining only partially and then refreezing. This suggests that in order to simulate the evolution of Greenland&rsquo;s surface hydrological system with fidelity, then a model that includes all of these processes needs to be used. In future work we will couple our model to a subglacial model and an ice flow model, and thus use our estimates of where, when and how much meltwater gets to the bed to understand the consequences for ice flow.</p

Recent Trends in Stratospheric Chlorine From Very Short‐Lived Substances

Very short‐lived substances (VSLS), including dichloromethane (CH2Cl2), chloroform (CHCl3), perchloroethylene (C2Cl4), and 1,2‐dichloroethane (C2H4Cl2), are a stratospheric chlorine source and therefore contribute to ozone depletion. We quantify stratospheric chlorine trends from these VSLS (VSLCltot) using a chemical transport model and atmospheric measurements, including novel high‐altitude aircraft data from the NASA VIRGAS (2015) and POSIDON (2016) missions. We estimate VSLCltot increased from 69 (±14) parts per trillion (ppt) Cl in 2000 to 111 (±22) ppt Cl in 2017, with \u3e80% delivered to the stratosphere through source gas injection, and the remainder from product gases. The modeled evolution of chlorine source gas injection agrees well with historical aircraft data, which corroborate reported surface CH2Cl2 increases since the mid‐2000s. The relative contribution of VSLS to total stratospheric chlorine increased from ~2% in 2000 to ~3.4% in 2017, reflecting both VSLS growth and decreases in long‐lived halocarbons. We derive a mean VSLCltot growth rate of 3.8 (±0.3) ppt Cl/year between 2004 and 2017, though year‐to‐year growth rates are variable and were small or negative in the period 2015–2017. Whether this is a transient effect, or longer‐term stabilization, requires monitoring. In the upper stratosphere, the modeled rate of HCl decline (2004–2017) is −5.2% per decade with VSLS included, in good agreement to ACE satellite data (−4.8% per decade), and 15% slower than a model simulation without VSLS. Thus, VSLS have offset a portion of stratospheric chlorine reductions since the mid‐2000s

North-east sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet to undergo the greatest inland expansion of supraglacial lakes during the 21st century

The formation and rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes (SGL) influences the mass balance and dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Although SGLs are expected to spread inland during the 21st century due to atmospheric warming, less is known about their future spatial distribution and volume. We use GrIS surface elevation model and regional climate model outputs to show that at the end of the 21st century (2070-2099) approximately 9.8 ± 3.9 km3 (+113% compared to 1980-2009) and 12.6 ± 5 km3 (+174%) of meltwater could be stored in SGLs under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios respectively. The largest increase is expected in the north-eastern sector of the GrIS (191% in RCP 4.5 and 320% in RCP 8.5), whereas in west Greenland, where the most SGLs are currently observed, the future increase will be relatively moderate (55% in RCP 4.5 and 68% in RCP 8.5)

Rapid dynamic activation of a marine-based Arctic ice cap

We use satellite observations to document rapid acceleration and ice loss from a formerly slow-flowing, marine-based sector of Austfonna, the largest ice cap in the Eurasian Arctic. During the past two decades, the sector ice discharge has increased 45-fold, the velocity regime has switched from predominantly slow (~ 101 m/yr) to fast (~ 103 m/yr) flow, and rates of ice thinning have exceeded 25 m/yr. At the time of widespread dynamic activation, parts of the terminus may have been near floatation. Subsequently, the imbalance has propagated 50 km inland to within 8 km of the ice cap summit. Our observations demonstrate the ability of slow-flowing ice to mobilize and quickly transmit the dynamic imbalance inland; a process that we show has initiated rapid ice loss to the ocean and redistribution of ice mass to locations more susceptible to melt, yet which remains poorly understood.This work was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council.This article was originally published in Geophysical Research Letters (M McMillan, A Shepherd, N Gourmelen, A Dehecq, A Leeson, A Ridout, T Flament, A Hogg, L Gilbert, T Benham, M van den Broeke, JA Dowdeswell, X Fettweis, B Noël, T Strozzi, Geophysical Research Letters 2014, 41, 8902–8909)

A high resolution record of Greenland mass balance

We map recent Greenland Ice Sheet elevation change at high spatial (5-km) and temporal (monthly) resolution using CryoSat-2 altimetry. After correcting for the impact of changing snowpack properties associated with unprecedented surface melting in 2012, we find good agreement (3 cm/yr bias) with airborne measurements. With the aid of regional climate and firn modelling, we compute high spatial and temporal resolution records of Greenland mass evolution, which correlate (R=0.96) with monthly satellite gravimetry, and reveal glacier dynamic imbalance. During 2011-2014, Greenland mass loss averaged 269±51 Gt/yr. Atmospherically-driven losses were widespread, with surface melt variability driving large fluctuations in the annual mass deficit. Terminus regions of five dynamically-thinning glaciers, which constitute less than 1% of Greenland's area, contributed more than 12% of the net ice loss. This high-resolution record demonstrates that mass deficits extending over small spatial and temporal scales have made a relatively large contribution to recent ice sheet imbalance

Bayesian hierarchical model for bias-correcting climate models

Climate models, derived from process understanding, are essential tools in the study of climate change and its wide-ranging impacts. Hindcast and future simulations provide comprehensive spatiotemporal estimates of climatology that are frequently employed within the environmental sciences community, although the output can be afflicted with bias that impedes direct interpretation. Post-processing bias correction approaches utilise observational data to address this challenge, although they are typically criticised for not being physically justified and not considering uncertainty in the correction. This paper proposes a novel Bayesian bias correction framework that robustly propagates uncertainty and models underlying spatial covariance patterns. Shared latent Gaussian processes are assumed between the in situ observations and climate model output, with the aim of partially preserving the covariance structure from the climate model after bias correction, which is based on well-established physical laws. Results demonstrate added value in modelling shared generating processes under several simulated scenarios, with the most value added for the case of sparse in situ observations and smooth underlying bias. Additionally, the propagation of uncertainty to a simulated final bias-corrected time series is illustrated, which is of key importance to a range of stakeholders, such as climate scientists engaged in impact studies, decision-makers trying to understand the likelihood of particular scenarios and individuals involved in climate change adaption strategies where accurate risk assessment is required for optimal resource allocation. This paper focuses on one-dimensional simulated examples for clarity, although the code implementation is developed to also work on multi-dimensional input data, encouraging follow-on real-world application studies that will further validate performance and remaining limitations. The Bayesian framework supports uncertainty propagation under model adaptations required for specific applications, providing a flexible approach that increases the scope of data assimilation tasks more generally

Seasonal evolution of supraglacial lakes on an East Antarctic outlet glacier

Supraglacial lakes are known to influence ice melt and ice flow on the Greenland ice sheet and potentially cause ice shelf disintegration on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, however, our understanding of their behavior and impact is more limited. Using >150 optical satellite images and meteorological records from 2000 to 2013, we provide the first multiyear analysis of lake evolution on Langhovde Glacier, Dronning Maud Land (69°11′S, 39°32′E). We mapped 7990 lakes and 855 surface channels up to 18.1 km inland (~670 m above sea level) from the grounding line and document three pathways of lake demise: (i) refreezing, (ii) drainage to the englacial/subglacial environment (on the floating ice), and (iii) overflow into surface channels (on both the floating and grounded ice). The parallels between these mechanisms, and those observed on Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula, suggest that lakes may similarly affect rates and patterns of ice melt, ice flow, and ice shelf disintegration in East Antarctica