Bringing Statistical Learning Machines Together for Hydro-Climatological Predictions - Case Study for Sacramento San Joaquin River Basin, California

Study region: Sacramento San Joaquin River Basin, California Study focus: The study forecasts the streamflow at a regional scale within SSJ river basin with largescale climate variables. The proposed approach eliminates the bias resulting from predefined indices at regional scale. The study was performed for eight unimpaired streamflow stations from 1962–2016. First, the Singular Valued Decomposition (SVD) teleconnections of the streamflow corresponding to 500 mbar geopotential height, sea surface temperature, 500 mbar specific humidity (SHUM500), and 500 mbar U-wind (U500) were obtained. Second, the skillful SVD teleconnections were screened non-parametrically. Finally, the screened teleconnections were used as the streamflow predictors in the non-linear regression models (K-nearest neighbor regression and data-driven support vector machine). New hydrological insights: The SVD results identified new spatial regions that have not been included in existing predefined indices. The nonparametric model indicated the teleconnections of SHUM500 and U500 being better streamflow predictors compared to other climate variables. The regression models were capable to apprehend most of the sustained low flows, proving the model to be effective for drought-affected regions. It was also observed that the proposed approach showed better forecasting skills with preprocessed large scale climate variables rather than using the predefined indices. The proposed study is simple, yet robust in providing qualitative streamflow forecasts that may assist water managers in making policy-related decisions when planning and managing watersheds

Improving ensemble streamflow prediction using interdecadal/interannual climate variability

The National Weather Service’s (NWS) river forecast centers provide long-term water resource forecasts for the main river basins in the U.S. The NWS creates seasonal streamflow forecasts using an ensemble prediction model called the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) software. ESP creates runoff volume forecasts by taking the current observed soil moisture and snowpack conditions in the basin and applying them to historical temperature and precipitation scenarios. The ESP treats every historic input year as a likely scenario of future basin conditions. Therefore improving the knowledge about how long-term climate cycles impact streamflow can extend the forecast lead time and improve the quality of long-lead forecasts. First, a study of the existing climate indices is carried out in Chapter 3 to establish which index shows a significant long-lead connection to the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) this step identifies a 1-year lagged relationship between the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) and CRB streamflow. A new SST region is identified in this analysis (named the Hondo region) and compared to the other established climate indices (e.g. SOI, PDO, NAO, AMO). The tests demonstrate Hondo performs better at longer lead times than the existing climate indices.Second, Chapter 4 identifies the climate cycles impacting the CRB streamflow. The SVD analysis performed in Chapter 3 is extended to include the simultaneous (or 0-year lag) as well as the 2nd and 3rd year lag times. Because SST’s and streamflow are basically independent data, this chapter explains the physical connection between them by analyzing the relationship between the ocean, atmosphere and CRB streamflow. This analysis, as well as recent research into the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (PQDO), demonstrates that the CRB streamflow is dominated by a hierarchy of climate drivers. The Hondo is the secondary level which exists between the extreme impacts of the ENSO signal and the longer cyclical patters observed in the PQDO. The current research shows that the QDO cycle leads precipitation by three years, and the Hondo leads the CRB by one to two years. Finally, the information from Chapter 4 reveals that the Hondo region can be used as a basis for weighing the ESP output. This is done because water resource managers create multi-year water plans that are utilized to project power generation supplies and water system improvements. In Chapter 5 several methods of weighing the ESP output based on the Hondo region are presented. Each method is assessed using parametric and non-parametric forecast skill metrics. The overall goal of this chapter is to identify a weighting technique, lag time, and season interval which show a marked improvement over simply using the 30-year mean as a streamflow predictor. From this analysis the forecast skill score is optimized when using the January – March average SST values as a basis for forecasting the streamflow for the following water year

The Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX): A test-bed for developing urban greenhouse gas emission measurements

The objective of the Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX) is to develop, evaluate and improve methods for measuring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cities. INFLUX’s scientific objectives are to quantify CO2 and CH4 emission rates at 1 km2 resolution with a 10% or better accuracy and precision, to determine whole-city emissions with similar skill, and to achieve high (weekly or finer) temporal resolution at both spatial resolutions. The experiment employs atmospheric GHG measurements from both towers and aircraft, atmospheric transport observations and models, and activity-based inventory products to quantify urban GHG emissions. Multiple, independent methods for estimating urban emissions are a central facet of our experimental design. INFLUX was initiated in 2010 and measurements and analyses are ongoing. To date we have quantified urban atmospheric GHG enhancements using aircraft and towers with measurements collected over multiple years, and have estimated whole-city CO2 and CH4 emissions using aircraft and tower GHG measurements, and inventory methods. Significant differences exist across methods; these differences have not yet been resolved; research to reduce uncertainties and reconcile these differences is underway. Sectorally- and spatially-resolved flux estimates, and detection of changes of fluxes over time, are also active research topics. Major challenges include developing methods for distinguishing anthropogenic from biogenic CO2 fluxes, improving our ability to interpret atmospheric GHG measurements close to urban GHG sources and across a broader range of atmospheric stability conditions, and quantifying uncertainties in inventory data products. INFLUX data and tools are intended to serve as an open resource and test bed for future investigations. Well-documented, public archival of data and methods is under development in support of this objective

Understanding and improving model representation of aerosol optical properties for a Chinese haze event measured during KORUS-AQ

KORUS-AQ was an international cooperative air quality field study in South Korea that measured local and remote sources of air pollution affecting the Korean Peninsula during May–June 2016. Some of the largest aerosol mass concentrations were measured during a Chinese haze transport event (24 May). Air quality forecasts using the WRF-Chem model with aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation captured AOD during this pollution episode but overpredicted surface particulate matter concentrations in South Korea, especially PM2.5, often by a factor of 2 or larger. Analysis revealed multiple sources of model deficiency related to the calculation of optical properties from aerosol mass that explain these discrepancies. Using in situ observations of aerosol size and composition as inputs to the optical properties calculations showed that using a low-resolution size bin representation (four bins) underestimates the efficiency with which aerosols scatter and absorb light (mass extinction efficiency). Besides using finer-resolution size bins (8–16 bins), it was also necessary to increase the refractive indices and hygroscopicity of select aerosol species within the range of values reported in the literature to achieve better consistency with measured values of the mass extinction efficiency (6.7 m2 g−1 observed average) and light-scattering enhancement factor (f(RH)) due to aerosol hygroscopic growth (2.2 observed average). Furthermore, an evaluation of the optical properties obtained using modeled aerosol properties revealed the inability of sectional and modal aerosol representations in WRF-Chem to properly reproduce the observed size distribution, with the models displaying a much wider accumulation mode. Other model deficiencies included an underestimate of organic aerosol density (1.0 g cm−3 in the model vs. observed average of 1.5 g cm−3) and an overprediction of the fractional contribution of submicron inorganic aerosols other than sulfate, ammonium, nitrate, chloride, and sodium corresponding to mostly dust (17 %–28 % modeled vs. 12 % estimated from observations). These results illustrate the complexity of achieving an accurate model representation of optical properties and provide potential solutions that are relevant to multiple disciplines and applications such as air quality forecasts, health impact assessments, climate projections, solar power forecasts, and aerosol data assimilation

International collaborative study to assess cardiovascular risk and evaluate long-term health in cats with preclinical hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and apparently healthy cats:The REVEAL Study

Background: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is the most prevalent heart disorder in cats and principal cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Yet, the impact of preclinical disease is unresolved. Hypothesis/Objectives: Observational study to characterize cardiovascular morbidity and survival in cats with preclinical nonobstructive (HCM) and obstructive (HOCM) hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and in apparently healthy cats (AH). Animals: One thousand seven hundred and thirty client-owned cats (430 preclinical HCM; 578 preclinical HOCM; 722 AH). Methods: Retrospective multicenter, longitudinal, cohort study. Cats from 21 countries were followed through medical record review and owner or referring veterinarian interviews. Data were analyzed to compare long-term outcomes, incidence, and risk for congestive heart failure (CHF), arterial thromboembolism (ATE), and cardiovascular death. Results: During the study period, CHF, ATE, or both occurred in 30.5% and cardiovascular death in 27.9% of 1008 HCM/HOCM cats. Risk assessed at 1, 5, and 10 years after study entry was 7.0%/3.5%, 19.9%/9.7%, and 23.9%/11.3% for CHF/ATE, and 6.7%, 22.8%, and 28.3% for cardiovascular death, respectively. There were no statistically significant differences between HOCM compared with HCM for cardiovascular morbidity or mortality, time from diagnosis to development of morbidity, or cardiovascular survival. Cats that developed cardiovascular morbidity had short survival (mean \ub1 standard deviation, 1.3 \ub1 1.7 years). Overall, prolonged longevity was recorded in a minority of preclinical HCM/HOCM cats with 10% reaching 9-15 years. Conclusions and Clinical Importance: Preclinical HCM/HOCM is a global health problem of cats that carries substantial risk for CHF, ATE, and cardiovascular death. This finding underscores the need to identify therapies and monitoring strategies that decrease morbidity and mortality

The genetic architecture of the human cerebral cortex

The cerebral cortex underlies our complex cognitive capabilities, yet little is known about the specific genetic loci that influence human cortical structure. To identify genetic variants that affect cortical structure, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of brain magnetic resonance imaging data from 51,665 individuals. We analyzed the surface area and average thickness of the whole cortex and 34 regions with known functional specializations. We identified 199 significant loci and found significant enrichment for loci influencing total surface area within regulatory elements that are active during prenatal cortical development, supporting the radial unit hypothesis. Loci that affect regional surface area cluster near genes in Wnt signaling pathways, which influence progenitor expansion and areal identity. Variation in cortical structure is genetically correlated with cognitive function, Parkinson's disease, insomnia, depression, neuroticism, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

TRY plant trait database – enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits - the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants - determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait‐based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits - almost complete coverage for ‘plant growth form’. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait–environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Long-term Incidence and risk of noncardiovascular and all-cause mortality in apparently healthy cats and cats with preclinical hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Background Epidemiologic knowledge regarding noncardiovascular and all‐cause mortality in apparently healthy cats (AH) and cats with preclinical hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (pHCM) is limited, hindering development of evidence‐based healthcare guidelines. Objectives To characterize/compare incidence rates, risk, and survival associated with noncardiovascular and all‐cause mortality in AH and pHCM cats. Animals A total of 1730 client‐owned cats (722 AH, 1008 pHCM) from 21 countries. Methods Retrospective, multicenter, longitudinal, cohort study. Long‐term health data were extracted by medical record review and owner/referring veterinarian interviews. Results Noncardiovascular death occurred in 534 (30.9%) of 1730 cats observed up to 15.2 years. Proportion of noncardiovascular death did not differ significantly between cats that at study enrollment were AH or had pHCM (P = .48). Cancer, chronic kidney disease, and conditions characterized by chronic weight‐loss‐vomiting‐diarrhea‐anorexia were the most frequently recorded noncardiovascular causes of death. Incidence rates/risk of noncardiac death increased with age in AH and pHCM. All‐cause death proportions were greater in pHCM than AH (65% versus 40%, respectively; P < .001) because of higher cardiovascular mortality in pHCM cats. Comparing AH with pHCM, median survival (study entry to noncardiovascular death) did not differ (AH, 9.8 years; pHCM, 8.6 years; P = .10), but all‐cause survival was significantly shorter in pHCM (P = .0001). Conclusions and Clinical Importance All‐cause mortality was significantly greater in pHCM cats due to disease burden contributed by increased cardiovascular death superimposed upon noncardiovascular death

Behavioral responses of terrestrial mammals to COVID-19 lockdowns

DATA AND MATERIALS AVAILABILITY : The full dataset used in the final analyses (33) and associated code (34) are available at Dryad. A subset of the spatial coordinate datasets is available at Zenodo (35). Certain datasets of spatial coordinates will be available only through requests made to the authors due to conservation and Indigenous sovereignty concerns (see table S1 for more information on data use restrictions and contact information for data requests). These sensitive data will be made available upon request to qualified researchers for research purposes, provided that the data use will not threaten the study populations, such as by distribution or publication of the coordinates or detailed maps. Some datasets, such as those overseen by government agencies, have additional legal restrictions on data sharing, and researchers may need to formally apply for data access. Collaborations with data holders are generally encouraged, and in cases where data are held by Indigenous groups or institutions from regions that are under-represented in the global science community, collaboration may be required to ensure inclusion.COVID-19 lockdowns in early 2020 reduced human mobility, providing an opportunity to disentangle its effects on animals from those of landscape modifications. Using GPS data, we compared movements and road avoidance of 2300 terrestrial mammals (43 species) during the lockdowns to the same period in 2019. Individual responses were variable with no change in average movements or road avoidance behavior, likely due to variable lockdown conditions. However, under strict lockdowns 10-day 95th percentile displacements increased by 73%, suggesting increased landscape permeability. Animals’ 1-hour 95th percentile displacements declined by 12% and animals were 36% closer to roads in areas of high human footprint, indicating reduced avoidance during lockdowns. Overall, lockdowns rapidly altered some spatial behaviors, highlighting variable but substantial impacts of human mobility on wildlife worldwide.The Radboud Excellence Initiative, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the National Science Foundation, Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Dutch Research Council NWO program “Advanced Instrumentation for Wildlife Protection”, Fondation Segré, RZSS, IPE, Greensboro Science Center, Houston Zoo, Jacksonville Zoo and Gardens, Nashville Zoo, Naples Zoo, Reid Park Zoo, Miller Park, WWF, ZCOG, Zoo Miami, Zoo Miami Foundation, Beauval Nature, Greenville Zoo, Riverbanks zoo and garden, SAC Zoo, La Passarelle Conservation, Parc Animalier d’Auvergne, Disney Conservation Fund, Fresno Chaffee zoo, Play for nature, North Florida Wildlife Center, Abilene Zoo, a Liber Ero Fellowship, the Fish and Wildlife Compensation Program, Habitat Conservation Trust Foundation, Teck Coal, and the Grand Teton Association. The collection of Norwegian moose data was funded by the Norwegian Environment Agency, the German Ministry of Education and Research via the SPACES II project ORYCS, the Wyoming Game and Fish Department, Wyoming Game and Fish Commission, Bureau of Land Management, Muley Fanatic Foundation (including Southwest, Kemmerer, Upper Green, and Blue Ridge Chapters), Boone and Crockett Club, Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resources Trust, Knobloch Family Foundation, Wyoming Animal Damage Management Board, Wyoming Governor’s Big Game License Coalition, Bowhunters of Wyoming, Wyoming Outfitters and Guides Association, Pope and Young Club, US Forest Service, US Fish and Wildlife Service, the Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation, Wyoming Wild Sheep Foundation, Wild Sheep Foundation, Wyoming Wildlife/Livestock Disease Research Partnership, the US National Science Foundation [IOS-1656642 and IOS-1656527, the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, and by a GRUPIN research grant from the Regional Government of Asturias, Sigrid Rausing Trust, Batubay Özkan, Barbara Watkins, NSERC Discovery Grant, the Federal Aid in Wildlife Restoration act under Pittman-Robertson project, the State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sport of the Czech Republic, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic, Rufford Foundation, an American Society of Mammalogists African Graduate Student Research Fund, the German Science Foundation, the Israeli Science Foundation, the BSF-NSF, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food and Slovenian Research Agency (CRP V1-1626), the Aage V. Jensen Naturfond (project: Kronvildt - viden, værdier og værktøjer), the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany’s Excellence Strategy, National Centre for Research and Development in Poland, the Slovenian Research Agency, the David Shepherd Wildlife Foundation, Disney Conservation Fund, Whitley Fund for Nature, Acton Family Giving, Zoo Basel, Columbus, Bioparc de Doué-la-Fontaine, Zoo Dresden, Zoo Idaho, Kolmården Zoo, Korkeasaari Zoo, La Passarelle, Zoo New England, Tierpark Berlin, Tulsa Zoo, the Ministry of Environment and Tourism, Government of Mongolia, the Mongolian Academy of Sciences, the Federal Aid in Wildlife Restoration act and the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, the National Science Foundation, Parks Canada, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, Alberta Environment and Parks, Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation, Safari Club International and Alberta Conservation Association, the Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y Tecnología (CONACYT) of Paraguay, the Norwegian Environment Agency and the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, EU funded Interreg SI-HR 410 Carnivora Dinarica project, Paklenica and Plitvice Lakes National Parks, UK Wolf Conservation Trust, EURONATUR and Bernd Thies Foundation, the Messerli Foundation in Switzerland and WWF Germany, the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, NASA Ecological Forecasting Program, the Ecotone Telemetry company, the French National Research Agency, LANDTHIRST, grant REPOS awarded by the i-Site MUSE thanks to the “Investissements d’avenir” program, the ANR Mov-It project, the USDA Hatch Act Formula Funding, the Fondation Segre and North American and European Zoos listed at http://www.giantanteater.org/, the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources, the Yellowstone Forever and the National Park Service, Missouri Department of Conservation, Federal Aid in Wildlife Restoration Grant, and State University of New York, various donors to the Botswana Predator Conservation Program, data from collared caribou in the Northwest Territories were made available through funds from the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Government of the Northwest Territories. The European Research Council Horizon2020, the British Ecological Society, the Paul Jones Family Trust, and the Lord Kelvin Adam Smith fund, the Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute and Tanzania National Parks. The Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapahoe Fish and Game Department and the Wyoming State Veterinary Laboratory, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Kodiak Brown Bear Trust, Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation, Koniag Native Corporation, Old Harbor Native Corporation, Afognak Native Corporation, Ouzinkie Native Corporation, Natives of Kodiak Native Corporation and the State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, and the Slovenia Hunters Association and Slovenia Forest Service. F.C. was partly supported by the Resident Visiting Researcher Fellowship, IMéRA/Aix-Marseille Université, Marseille. This work was partially funded by the Center of Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), which is financed by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and by the Saxon Ministry for Science, Culture and Tourism (SMWK) with tax funds on the basis of the budget approved by the Saxon State Parliament. This article is a contribution of the COVID-19 Bio-Logging Initiative, which is funded in part by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (GBMF9881) and the National Geographic Society.https://www.science.org/journal/sciencehj2023Mammal Research InstituteZoology and Entomolog

Dimethyl fumarate in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) inhibits inflammasome-mediated inflammation and has been proposed as a treatment for patients hospitalised with COVID-19. This randomised, controlled, open-label platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing multiple treatments in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 (NCT04381936, ISRCTN50189673). In this assessment of DMF performed at 27 UK hospitals, adults were randomly allocated (1:1) to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus DMF. The primary outcome was clinical status on day 5 measured on a seven-point ordinal scale. Secondary outcomes were time to sustained improvement in clinical status, time to discharge, day 5 peripheral blood oxygenation, day 5 C-reactive protein, and improvement in day 10 clinical status. Between 2 March 2021 and 18 November 2021, 713 patients were enroled in the DMF evaluation, of whom 356 were randomly allocated to receive usual care plus DMF, and 357 to usual care alone. 95% of patients received corticosteroids as part of routine care. There was no evidence of a beneficial effect of DMF on clinical status at day 5 (common odds ratio of unfavourable outcome 1.12; 95% CI 0.86-1.47; p = 0.40). There was no significant effect of DMF on any secondary outcome