Results of the first Arctic Heat Open Science Experiment

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 99 (2018): 513-520, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0323.1.Seasonally ice-covered marginal seas are among the most difficult regions in the Arctic to study. Physical constraints imposed by the variable presence of sea ice in all stages of growth and melt make the upper water column and air–sea ice interface especially challenging to observe. At the same time, the flow of solar energy through Alaska’s marginal seas is one of the most important regulators of their weather and climate, sea ice cover, and ecosystems. The deficiency of observing systems in these areas hampers forecast services in the region and is a major contributor to large uncertainties in modeling and related climate projections. The Arctic Heat Open Science Experiment strives to fill this observation gap with an array of innovative autonomous floats and other near-real-time weather and ocean sensing systems. These capabilities allow continuous monitoring of the seasonally evolving state of the Chukchi Sea, including its heat content. Data collected by this project are distributed in near–real time on project websites and on the Global Telecommunications System (GTS), with the objectives of (i) providing timely delivery of observations for use in weather and sea ice forecasts, for model, and for reanalysis applications and (ii) supporting ongoing research activities across disciplines. This research supports improved forecast services that protect and enhance the safety and economic viability of maritime and coastal community activities in Alaska. Data are free and open to all (see www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-heat/).This work was supported by NOAA Ocean and Atmospheric Research and the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA15OAR4320063 and by the Innovative Technology for Arctic Exploration (ITAE) program at JISAO/PMEL. Jayne, Robbins, and Ekholm were supported by ONR (N00014-12-10110)

Genetic variation in insulin-like growth factor signaling genes and breast cancer risk among BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers

Abstract Introduction Women who carry mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 have a substantially increased risk of developing breast cancer as compared with the general population. However, risk estimates range from 20 to 80%, suggesting the presence of genetic and/or environmental risk modifiers. Based on extensive in vivo and in vitro studies, one important pathway for breast cancer pathogenesis may be the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) signaling pathway, which regulates both cellular proliferation and apoptosis. BRCA1 has been shown to directly interact with IGF signaling such that variants in this pathway may modify risk of cancer in women carrying BRCA mutations. In this study, we investigate the association of variants in genes involved in IGF signaling and risk of breast cancer in women who carry deleterious BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations. Methods A cohort of 1,665 adult, female mutation carriers, including 1,122 BRCA1 carriers (433 cases) and 543 BRCA2 carriers (238 cases) were genotyped for SNPs in IGF1, IGF1 receptor (IGF1R), IGF1 binding protein (IGFBP1, IGFBP2, IGFBP5), and IGF receptor substrate 1 (IRS1). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model time from birth to diagnosis of breast cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers separately. For linkage disequilibrium (LD) blocks with multiple SNPs, an additive genetic model was assumed; and for single SNP analyses, no additivity assumptions were made. Results Among BRCA1 carriers, significant associations were found between risk of breast cancer and LD blocks in IGF1R (global P = 0.011 for LD block 2 and global P = 0.012 for LD block 11). Among BRCA2 carriers, an LD block in IGFBP2 (global P = 0.0145) was found to be associated with the time to breast cancer diagnosis. No significant LD block associations were found for the other investigated genes among BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Conclusions This is the first study to investigate the role of genetic variation in IGF signaling and breast cancer risk in women carrying deleterious mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2. We identified significant associations in variants in IGF1R and IRS1 in BRCA1 carriers and in IGFBP2 in BRCA2 carriers. Although there is known to be interaction of BRCA1 and IGF signaling, further replication and identification of causal mechanisms are needed to better understand these associations

The Rise and Fall, and the Rise (Again) of Feminist Research in Music: 'What Goes Around Comes Around'

This article reports from a two-phase study that involved an analysis of the extant literature followed by a three-part survey answered by seventy-one women composers. Through these theoretical and empirical data, the authors explore the relationship between gender and music’s symbolic and cultural capital. Bourdieu’s theory of the habitus is employed to understand the gendered experiences of the female composers who participated in the survey. The article suggests that these female composers have different investments in gender but that, overall, they reinforce the male habitus given that the female habitus occupies a subordinate position in relation to that of the male. The findings of the study also suggest a connection between contemporary feminism and the attitudes towards gender held by the participants. The article concludes that female composers classify themselves, and others, according to gendered norms and that these perpetuate the social order in music in which the male norm dominates

Outcomes from elective colorectal cancer surgery during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

This study aimed to describe the change in surgical practice and the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on mortality after surgical resection of colorectal cancer during the initial phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Genomic Relationships, Novel Loci, and Pleiotropic Mechanisms across Eight Psychiatric Disorders

Genetic influences on psychiatric disorders transcend diagnostic boundaries, suggesting substantial pleiotropy of contributing loci. However, the nature and mechanisms of these pleiotropic effects remain unclear. We performed analyses of 232,964 cases and 494,162 controls from genome-wide studies of anorexia nervosa, attention-deficit/hyper-activity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, bipolar disorder, major depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder, schizophrenia, and Tourette syndrome. Genetic correlation analyses revealed a meaningful structure within the eight disorders, identifying three groups of inter-related disorders. Meta-analysis across these eight disorders detected 109 loci associated with at least two psychiatric disorders, including 23 loci with pleiotropic effects on four or more disorders and 11 loci with antagonistic effects on multiple disorders. The pleiotropic loci are located within genes that show heightened expression in the brain throughout the lifespan, beginning prenatally in the second trimester, and play prominent roles in neurodevelopmental processes. These findings have important implications for psychiatric nosology, drug development, and risk prediction.Peer reviewe

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

Mixed methods prospective findings of the initial effects of the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic on individuals in recovery from substance use disorder

The beginning of the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic interrupted integral services and supports for those in recovery from substance use disorders. The current study used qualitative and quantitative data to identify 1) pandemic-related barriers/stressors, 2) coping strategies employed, and 3) how the stressors and strategies predicted subsequent substance use frequency. Participants were 48 adults (40.5% female; 90.2% White) between 26 and 60 years old (M = 42.66, SD = 8.44) who were part of a larger, multi-year longitudinal study of individuals in recovery from substance use disorders. Individuals completed two interviews, one during the six weeks of initial stay-at-home orders in the state in which data were collected and the second within six to twelve months of their initial interview. Common barriers to recovery included cancelled support meetings, changes in job format (i.e., being fired or furloughed), and lack of social support. Common coping strategies included self-care, leisure activities/hobbies, taking caution against exposure, and strengthening personal relationships. The relationship between cravings at baseline and substance use at follow up was stronger for those who experienced worsening of their mental health (B = 21.80, p .99) had lower rates of substance use at follow-up than those who did not employ self-care as a coping mechanism (B = 16.10, p < .01). These findings inform research priorities regarding prospective effects of the pandemic on treatment endeavors, particularly emphasizing treating mental health and encouraging self-care strategies