A framework for quantifying the multisectoral burden of animal disease to support decision making

Animal diseases have wide-ranging impacts in multiple societal arenas, including agriculture, public health and the environment. These diseases cause significant economic losses for farmers, disrupt food security and present zoonotic risks to human populations. Additionally, they contribute to antimicrobial resistance and a range of environmental issues such as greenhouse gas emissions. The societal and ecological costs of livestock diseases are frequently underrepresented or unaddressed in policy decisions and resource allocations. Social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) offers a comprehensive framework to evaluate the broad impacts of animal diseases across different sectors. This approach aligns with the One Health concept, which seeks to integrate and optimize the health of humans, animals and the environment. Traditional economic evaluations often focus narrowly on profit maximization within the livestock sector, neglecting wider externalities such as public health and environmental impacts. In contrast, SCBA takes a multi-sectoral whole-system view, considering multiple factors to guide public and private sector investments toward maximizing societal benefits. This paper discusses three separate sector specific (Animal health, Human health, Environmental health) methodologies for quantifying the burden of animal diseases. It then discusses how these estimates can be combined to generate multisectoral estimates of the impacts of animal diseases on human societies and the environment using monetary values. Finally this paper explores how this framework can support the evaluation of interventions from a One Health perspective though SCBA. This integrated assessment framework supports informed decision-making and resource allocation, ultimately contributing to improved public health outcomes, enhanced animal welfare, and greater environmental sustainability

Reproduction and respiration of a climate change indicator species: effect of temperature and variable food in the copepod Centropages chierchiae

The abundance of the calanoid copepod Centropages chierchiae has increased at the northern limits of its distribution in recent decades, mainly due to oceanic climate forcing, suggesting this as a key species in monitoring climate change. Laboratory experiments were conducted to study the combined effect of temperature, food type and concentration on the egg production rate (EPR) and hatching success (HS) of C. chierchiae. Females were fed on two monoalgal diets (Gymnodinium sp. and Phaeodactylum tricornutum) at two food concentrations and at three different temperatures (13, 19, 24C). Respiration rates of both genders were measured at four different temperatures (8, 13, 19, 24C). EPR was significantly different between temperatures and food concentrations, the maximum EPR being attained when the copepods were exposed to high food levels and at 19C. Prey type significantly influenced EPR; feeding on P. tricornutum resulted in higher egg production than Gymnodinium sp. HS was significantly lower at 13C than at 19 and 24C and higher with Gymnodinium sp. Respiration rates were sex independent and increased exponentially with temperature. To maintain basal metabolism, the minimum food intake of P. tricornutum ranged between 0.4 and 1.8 g C and for Gymnodinium sp. between 0.03 and 0.13 g C. Food intake was always higher than the metabolic demands, except for the highest temperature tested (24C). The present results confirm the sensitivity of C. chierchiae to temperature variations and may help in understanding the successful expansion of its distribution towards northern latitudes.Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT) [PTDC/MAR/098643/2008, PTDC/MAR/111304/2009, PTDC/MAR/0908066/2008]; FCT [SFRH/BD/28198/2006]; [SFRH/BPD/38332/2007

Surgical versus non-surgical interventions for treating patellar dislocation

Background: Patellar dislocation occurs when the patella disengages completely from the trochlear (femoral) groove. Following reduction of the dislocation, conservative (non-surgical) rehabilitation with physiotherapy may be used. Since recurrence of dislocation is common, some surgeons have advocated surgical intervention rather than non-surgical interventions. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2011. Objectives: To assess the effects (benefits and harms) of surgical versus non-surgical interventions for treating people with primary or recurrent patellar dislocation. Search methods: We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group's Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library), MEDLINE, EMBASE, AMED, CINAHL, ZETOC, Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) and a variety of other literature databases and trial registries. Corresponding authors were contacted to identify additional studies. The last search was carried out in October 2014. Selection criteria: We included randomised and quasi-randomised controlled clinical trials evaluating surgical versus non-surgical interventions for treating lateral patellar dislocation. Data collection and analysis: Two review authors independently examined titles and abstracts of each identified study to assess study eligibility, extract data and assess risk of bias. The primary outcomes we assessed were the frequency of recurrent dislocation, and validated patient-rated knee or physical function scores. We calculated risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous outcomes and mean differences MD) for continuous outcomes. When appropriate, we pooled data. Main results: We included five randomised studies and one quasi-randomised study. These recruited a total of 344 people with primary (first-time) patellar dislocation. The mean ages in the individual studies ranged from 19.3 to 25.7 years, with four studies including children, mainly adolescents, as well as adults. Follow-up for the full study populations ranged from two to nine years across the six studies. The quality of the evidence is very low as assessed by GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation Working Group) criteria, with all studies being at high risk of performance and detection biases, relating to the lack of blinding. There was very low quality but consistent evidence that participants managed surgically had a significantly lower risk of recurrent dislocation following primary patellar dislocation at two to five years follow-up (21/162 versus 32/136; RR 0.53 favouring surgery, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33 to 0.87; five studies, 294 participants). Based on an illustrative risk of recurrent dislocation in 222 people per 1000 in the non-surgical group, these data equate to 104 fewer (95% CI 149 fewer to 28 fewer) people per 1000 having recurrent dislocation after surgery. Similarly, there is evidence of a lower risk of recurrent dislocation after surgery at six to nine years (RR 0.67 favouring surgery, 95% CI 0.42 to 1.08; two studies, 165 participants), but a small increase cannot be ruled out. Based on an illustrative risk of recurrent dislocation in 336 people per 1000 in the non-surgical group, these data equate to 110 fewer (95% CI 195 fewer to 27 more) people per 1000 having recurrent dislocation after surgery. The very low quality evidence available from single trials only for four validated patient-rated knee and physical function scores (the Tegner activity scale, KOOS, Lysholm and Hughston VAS (visual analogue scale) score) did not show significant differences between the two treatment groups. The results for the Kujala patellofemoral disorders score (0 to 100: best outcome) differed in direction of effect at two to five years follow-up, which favoured the surgery group (MD 13.93 points higher, 95% CI 5.33 points higher to 22.53 points higher; four studies, 171 participants) and the six to nine years follow-up, which favoured the non-surgical treatment group (MD 3.25 points lower, 95% CI 10.61 points lower to 4.11 points higher; two studies, 167 participants). However, only the two to five years follow-up included the clear possibility of a clinically important effect (putative minimal clinically important difference for this outcome is 10 points). Adverse effects of treatment were reported in one trial only; all four major complications were attributed to the surgical treatment group. Slightly more people in the surgery group had subsequent surgery six to nine years after their primary dislocation (20/87 versus 16/78; RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.89, two studies, 165 participants). Based on an illustrative risk of subsequent surgery in 186 people per 1000 in the non-surgical group, these data equate to 11 more (95% CI 76 fewer to 171 more) people per 1000 having subsequent surgery after primary surgery. Authors' conclusions: Although there is some evidence to support surgical over non-surgical management of primary patellar dislocation in the short term, the quality of this evidence is very low because of the high risk of bias and the imprecision in the effect estimates. We are therefore very uncertain about the estimate of effect. No trials examined people with recurrent patellar dislocation. Adequately powered, multi-centre, randomised controlled trials, conducted and reported to contemporary standards, are needed. To inform the design and conduct of these trials, expert consensus should be achieved on the minimal description of both surgical and non-surgical interventions, and the anatomical or pathological variations that may be relevant to both choice of these interventions and the natural history of patellar instability. Furthermore, well-designed studies recording adverse events and long-term outcomes are needed

Detection of canine distemper virus (CDV) neutralising antibodies in small ruminants during peste-des-petits-ruminants virus (PPRV) surveillance in Zambia

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is endemic in Zambia, while peste-des-petits-ruminants virus (PPRV) has not been detected. This study screened 962 farmed goats and 237 small ruminants at informal markets for PPRV antibodies using c-ELISA. A subset (n = 29) was re-analysed with virus neutralisation assays (VNA) for antibodies to PPRV and CDV due to cross-reactivity concerns. c-ELISA indicated 6.44% PPRV seroprevalence on farms and 3.80% at markets. While VNA detected no PPRV antibodies, 45% (13/29) tested positive for CDV, possibly suggesting cross-reactivity. Given the study's limitations, further research is needed to determine whether PPRV is present in Zambia and assess potential cross-reactivity

Emerging zoonotic viruses

Emerging infectious diseases poses a great future threat, not only to humans but also to domestic animals and wildlife. Even though the majority of these infections only cause minor health problems, the relatively recent emergence of HIV clearly illustrates that the next major human pandemic may surface at any time. Regardless of what the name indicates, most emerging human pathogens are not believed to be recently evolved, but to have existed previously in the natural environment. Most emerging pathogens are zoonotic, i.e. able to infect animals besides humans. Viruses are significantly overrepresented, which is thought to be due to the general difficulties in treating and controlling viral diseases, as well as the substantial amount of genetic diversity that viruses exhibits. Even though there is no clear association between the classification of a virus as zoonotic and its’ risk of emergence, many emerging viruses have been shown to be zoonotic or have a zoonotic history. Therefore it is probably accurate to conclude that zoonotic viruses constitute a significant risk for future emergence events. Since the majority of emerging pathogens are zoonotic, the process of cross-species transmission of a microbe from its reservoir to humans is likely to play a central role. It is probable that humans are exposed to unfamiliar pathogens regularly, but that only a few of them will possess the required genetic features to successfully cause human infection. A fraction of these pathogens may go on to acquire the ability to transmit between humans, whereof an additional few may evolve to transmit at a rate that enables major epidemics. When emergence occurs, it appears to disproportionately often happen in areas that are affected by anthropogenic activities. Some of these activities are believed to act by augmenting exposure of humans to novel pathogens, reservoirs or vectors, others by enhancing disease transmission. In order to be prepared for future emergence events, there is a great need for additional research on numerous aspects of the emergence process. Also, given the complexity and multifactorial nature of disease emergence, a multidisciplinary and internationally conjunctive approach is often advised.Infektiösa patogener som påvisats i en population för första gången, alternativt uppvisar en ökning i incidens eller geografisk spridning, utgör ett allvarligt framtida hot för såväl människor som djur. Majoriteten av dessa patogener orsakar endast mindre hälsoproblem, men risken att nästa stora pandemi kan vara nära i antågande får ej försummas. Detta illustreras tydligt av HIV, som på relativt kort tid har etablerat sig som en av världens mest fruktade infektiösa agens. Patogenerna av denna typ antas sällan vara nyutvecklade, utan förmodas oftast ha förekommit tidigare i naturen. De allra flesta är zoonotiska och därmed kapabla att infektera andra arter utöver människa. Virus är överrepresenterade, vilket dels antas bero på svårigheterna i att behandla och kontrollera virala sjukdomar, såväl som den enorma genetiska mångfald som virus uppvisar. Än så länge har ingen tydlig association kunnat påvisas mellan ett virus zoonotiska status och dess benägenhet att nyinfektera människor. Men eftersom en betydande andel trots allt innehar förmågan att infektera djur utöver människa, eller har haft historiskt, är det sannolikt att zoonotiska virus är en av de patogengrupper som utgör störst risk för framtiden. Eftersom många av de patogener som påvisats i humana populationer för första gången, alternativt uppvisar en ökning i incidens eller geografisk spridning, är sprungna ur djurpopulationer, kan överföringen av mikroorganismer från djur till människa antas spela en central roll. Troligen exponeras människan ständigt för främmande patogener, men endast ett mindre antal av dessa kommer att inneha de rätta genetiska förutsättningarna för att kunna orsaka mänsklig infektion. Av dessa är det troligen bara ett fåtal som kommer att utveckla förmågan att spridas mellan människor, varav endast en fraktion lyckas förfina detta till den grad att de kan skapa humana pandemier. Denna övergång från djurinfektion till human pandemi sker anmärkningsvärt ofta i områden som står under antropogen påverkan. Vissa av dessa aktiviteter förmodas verka genom att utöka exponeringen av människor för nya patogener, dess reservoarer eller vektorer, andra genom att underlätta spridning i populationen. För att mänskligheten i framtiden ska kunna förhålla sig till hotet som dessa infektiösa patogener utgör, finns det stora behov av forskning inom flera områden. Eftersom processen är komplex och multifaktoriell är en multidisciplinär och internationellt samordnad angreppsmetod ofta att rekommendera

"El Gaucho F. A.", nueva variedad de trigo del Instituto Fitotécnico de "Santa Catalina"

Se hace una descripción de la nueva variedad de trigo “El Gaucho F. A.”, obterida en el Instituto Fitotécnico de “Santa Catalina” por el ingeniero agrónomo Juan G. Arzuaga. Fué desarrollada por medio de la selección individual del cruzamiento Sin valocho X (Riccio X Lin Calel).Ha sido aprobada por el Tribunal de Fiscalización de la Secretaría de Estado de Agricultura y Ganadería de la Nación y aconsejada su siembra en cuatro de las subregiones trigueras de la Argentina. Sus principales características son: alto rendimiento en grano, resistencia a royas y carbón volador y la producción de harina de muy buena calidad. Se publican resultados de ensayos comparativos de rendimiento en los cuales fué incluída esta nueva variedad.Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestale

Prevalence and risk factors for BVDV in goats and cattle in and around Gaborone, Botswana

SUMMARY Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus (BVDV) is a cause of severe deterioration in animal health as well as grave economic losses globally. Infection is often inapparent but the virus can also cause respiratory signs, diarrhoea, pyrexia, decreased production, immunosuppression and reproductive problems such as increased calving intervals and abortions. Also, when naive dams in early pregnancy are infected, before the development of fetal immune competence, the fetus is at risk of developing persistent infection. These persistently infected individuals (PI) are of particular epidemiologic interest since they shed virus in large concentrations in all their bodily secretions throughout their life. Risk factors for disease transmission include, but are not limited to, herd size, animal trade and grazing on communal pastures. For goats, contact with cattle is a significant risk factor. Several prevalence studies have been conducted on the African continent, but in the country of Botswana, the occurrence is largely unknown. Because of this, blood samples were obtained from 100 goats owned by 11 smallholder farmers, in three different villages just outside of Gaborone. Besides this, 361 blood samples from cattle collected as part of another study were analysed. The detected antibody prevalence was 0% in goats and 53.5% in cattle. In dairy cattle, the seroprevalence was 49.7% and in beef cattle 56.7%, but this difference was not statistically significant. The prevalence of virus in cattle was 0.27% on Ag-ELISA and PCR performed in Botswana, and 0.83% on PCR performed in Sweden. The viraemic animals all originated in the two herds with the highest prevalences (88.1% and 97.9% respectively). Finally, PCR analysis was performed and a short sequence of the genome of two of the detected viruses were sequenced, and found to belong to the BVDV-1a genotype. The goat farmers were also subjected to a short interview regarding risk factors for BVDV transmission, as well as the general health status in their herd. All farmers allowed their animals to graze on communal pastures, and 64% reported to also keep cattle in close proximity to their goats. Also, 18% answered that they keep sheep and goats together in the same kraal (i.e. enclosure) during the night. Approximately 55% responded that they occasionally saw wildlife ruminants in the area where their goats were kept. However, only 18% purchased goats from other farmers as the majority relied solely on raising their own kidlings. The most common health problem described was abortion, which 91% occasionally struggled with. Besides this, 64% also reported problems with diarrhoea, 36% with coughing and 18% with ocular and nasal discharge. Last but not least, all farmers stated that they depend on their goats for food and cash income and that it would affect them greatly if their animals would fall sick or die in large numbers.SAMMANFATTNING Bovint Virus Diarré Virus (BVDV) är en global orsak till nedsatt djurhälsa samt ekonomiska förluster. Infektionen är ofta subklinisk men viruset kan också orsaka respiratoriska symptom, diarré, pyrexi, nedsatt produktion, nedsatt immunförsvar samt reproduktiva störningar såsom förlängda kalvningsintervall och aborter. När seronegativa hondjur infekteras under tidig dräktighet, innan fostret bildat immunokompetens, finns en risk att avkomman utvecklar persistent infektion (PI). Dessa djur är av särskilt epidemiologiskt intresse då de utsöndrar virus i höga koncentrationer i samtliga kroppsvätskor under hela deras liv. Riskfaktorer för virusspridning är exempelvis stor besättningsstorlek och hög djurdensitet. Även driftrutiner såsom djurhandel och utnyttjande av gemensamma betesmarker inverkar. För getter är kontakt med nötkreatur en riskfaktor. Ett flertal prevalensstudier avseende BVDV har utförts på den afrikanska kontinenten, men i Botswana är förekomsten i stort sett okänd. På grund av detta utfördes blodprovstagning på totalt 100 getter, vilka ägdes av 11 småbrukande bönder hemmahörande i tre olika byar utanför Gaborone. Utöver dessa analyserades även 361 blodprover från nötkreatur, vilka tagits som en del av ett annat forskningsprojekt. Antikroppsprevalensen var 0% för get och 53,5 % för nötkreatur. För mjölkkor var seroprevalensen 49,7% och för köttkor 56,7%, men denna skillnad var ej statistiskt signifikant. Prevalensen av BVD-virus, baserat på resultat från Ag-ELISA och PCR, var 0,27%. När PCR:en senare upprepades i Sverige blev resultatet 0,83%. Samtliga viraemiska djur härstammade från de två besättningar med högst seroprevalens (88,1% resp 97,9%). Slutligen gjordes en PCR analys och en del av genomet sekvenserades för två av de detekterade virusen, och befanns tillhöra genotypen BVDV-1a. Småbrukarna fick även i en kort intervju svara på frågor avseende riskfaktorer för spridning och smitta av BVDV samt den generella hälsostatusen i deras besättning. Intervjuerna påvisade flertalet riskfaktorer för virusspridning. Samtliga av bönderna lät sina djur beta fritt på allmänna betesmarker och 64% angav att de höll nötkreatur i nära anslutning till getterna. Ungefär 18% höll getter och får i samma inhägnad nattetid. Cirka 55% angav att de då och då såg vilda idisslare i sitt närområde. Endast 18% köpte getter från andra bönder, då majoriteten enbart använde sig av egen uppfödning av killingar. Det vanligaste hälsoproblemet var aborter, vilket 91% angav att de hade problem med till och från. Av bönderna hade även 64% bekymmer med diarré, 36% med hosta och 18% med ögon- och nosflöde. Samtliga angav att de är väldigt beroende av deras getter för föda och inkomst, och att ett större sjukdomsutbrott med dödsfall skulle ha en allvarlig påverkan på deras livssituation

Utsjekk

Denne studien har hatt som mål å forske på hvorfor og hvordan anvende utsjekk i en teaterprosess, med fokus på å ivareta skuespillernes psykiske helse. Forskningen har foregått som praksisledet forskning, med en vitenskapsteoretisk forankring i fenomenologisk hermeneutikk. Forskningen har foregått ved at jeg og tre skuespillere har arbeidet med teksten «4.48 Psykose» av Sarah Kane, og fokusert på å legge fra oss arbeidet på slutten av øvingen. Den empiriske dataen er samlet via semistrukturerte gruppeintervju etter øvingene, samt sluttintervju med alle skuespillerne. Målet med studien har vært å forske på deres opplevelse av utsjekk, og hvorvidt de klarer å legge fra seg arbeidet på slutten av økta. Teorien viser til at skuespillere, spesielt med method acting i bakgrunn, sliter mer med depresjon, angst og identitetsproblemer enn den generelle befolkningen. Dette kan skyldes at skuespilleren sliter med å lage tydelige skiller mellom seg selv og karakteren. Med inspirasjon hentet fra dramaterapeutiske teknikker har vi arbeidet med estetisk transformasjon og forflytting for å lage tydelige skiller på når en er karakter og når en går tilbake til å være seg selv. Vi har også benyttet diverse teaterøvelser som blir brukt for å skape konsentrasjon på starten av en økt til å skape en konsentrasjon og et fokus på å prosessere og legge fra seg arbeidet. Analysen viser til at teaterøvelsene har hatt varierende effekt, men at den estetiske transformasjonen og forflyttingen har hatt relativt lik effekt på alle skuespillerne. Den viser også at det er elementet fra denne studien skuespillerne ønsker å ta med seg videre inn i egen praksis

The Impact of Political Factors on Bank CDS Spreads: A Data-Driven Approach

I denne oppgaven analyserer vi empirisk hvilke variabler som er viktige for CDSene til et globalt utvalg av 46 børsnoterte banker i perioden fra 2005 til 2019. Vi studerer tradisjonelle regnskaps- og markedsvariabler, i tillegg til to originale variabler som måler politisk risiko og risiko ved politiske retningslinjer, og én nyhetssentimentvariabel. Vi bruker en datadrevet tilnærming til variabelseleksjon for å identifisere overflødige variabler i eksisterende litteratur. Ved å bruke et paneldata med fikserte enhetseffekter finner vi at; (1) politisk stabilitet og usikkerhet ved politiske retningslinjer er viktige drivere av bankers kredittrisiko, (2) nyhetssentiment er viktig i tillegg til de politiske variablene, (3) markedsbaserte variabler er viktigere i å forklare CDSer enn regnskapsvariabler, (4) variabelselsksjonsmetoder viser at det er overflødigheter i settet av tradisjonelle variabler funnet til å være viktig i eksisterende litteratur, og (5) ved å bruke en datadrevet tilnærming til variabelselsksjon på alle tilgjengelige variabler, oppnår vi enklere modeller med bedre forklaringskraft.This thesis empirically analyzes the determinants of CDS spreads from a global sample of 46 listed banks over the 2005–2019 period. We use traditional accounting- and market-based variables, in addition to two novel political and policy variables as well as a news sentiment variable. We apply a data-driven approach to variable selection in order to identify redundancies in existing literature. Using a panel fixed effects approach, we find that (1) political stability and policy uncertainty are important drivers of bank credit risk, (2) news sentiment is found to be important in addition to political and policy variables, (3) market variables are overall more important in explaining bank CDS spreads than accounting variables, (4) variable selection methods show that there are redundancies in the set of traditional variables found to be significant in the existing literature, and (5) by using a data-driven approach to variable selection on all of the available variables, we obtain simpler models with higher explanatory power