Towards Machine Wald

The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of sophisticated statistical models, these models are still designed \emph{by humans} because there is currently no known recipe or algorithm for dividing the design of a statistical model into a sequence of arithmetic operations. Indeed enabling computers to \emph{think} as \emph{humans} have the ability to do when faced with uncertainty is challenging in several major ways: (1) Finding optimal statistical models remains to be formulated as a well posed problem when information on the system of interest is incomplete and comes in the form of a complex combination of sample data, partial knowledge of constitutive relations and a limited description of the distribution of input random variables. (2) The space of admissible scenarios along with the space of relevant information, assumptions, and/or beliefs, tend to be infinite dimensional, whereas calculus on a computer is necessarily discrete and finite. With this purpose, this paper explores the foundations of a rigorous framework for the scientific computation of optimal statistical estimators/models and reviews their connections with Decision Theory, Machine Learning, Bayesian Inference, Stochastic Optimization, Robust Optimization, Optimal Uncertainty Quantification and Information Based Complexity.Comment: 37 page

Morphology and magnetism of multifunctional nanostructured γ\gamma-Fe2_2O3_3 films: Simulation and experiments

This paper introduces a new approach for simulating magnetic properties of nanocomposites comprising magnetic particles embedded in a non-magnetic matrix, taking into account the 3D structure of the system in which particles' positions correctly mimic real samples. The proposed approach develops a multistage simulation procedure in which the size and distribution of particles within the hosting matrix is firstly attained by means of the Cell Dynamic System (CDS) model. The 3D structure provided by the CDS step is further employed in a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of zero-field-cooled/field-cooled (ZFC/FC) and magnetic hysteresis loops ($M \times H$ curves) for the system. Simulations are aimed to draw a realistic picture of the as-produced ultra-thin films comprising maghemite nanoparticles dispersed in polyaniline. Comparison (ZFC/FC and $M \times H$ curves) between experiments and simulations regarding the maximum of the ZFC curve ($T_{\scriptsize MAX}$), remanence ($M_R/M_s$) and coercivity ($H_C$) revealed the great accuracy of the multistage approach proposed here while providing information about the system's morphology and magnetic properties. For a typical sample the value we found experimentally for $T_{\scriptsize MAX}$ (54 K) was very close to the value provided by the simulation (53 K). For the parameters depending on the nanoparticle clustering the experimental values were consistently lower ($M_R/M_s$ = 0.32 and $H_C$ = 210 Oe) than the values we found in the simulation ($M_R/M_s$ = 0.53 and $H_C$ = 274 Oe). Indeed, the approach introduced here is very promising for the design of real magnetic nanocomposite samples with optimized features.Comment: 19 pages (one column), 5 figure

Agreements between Industry and Academia on Publication Rights: A Retrospective Study of Protocols and Publications of Randomized Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about publication agreements between industry and academic investigators in trial protocols and the consistency of these agreements with corresponding statements in publications. We aimed to investigate (i) the existence and types of publication agreements in trial protocols, (ii) the completeness and consistency of the reporting of these agreements in subsequent publications, and (iii) the frequency of co-authorship by industry employees. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a retrospective cohort of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) based on archived protocols approved by six research ethics committees between 13 January 2000 and 25 November 2003. Only RCTs with industry involvement were eligible. We investigated the documentation of publication agreements in RCT protocols and statements in corresponding journal publications. Of 647 eligible RCT protocols, 456 (70.5%) mentioned an agreement regarding publication of results. Of these 456, 393 (86.2%) documented an industry partner's right to disapprove or at least review proposed manuscripts; 39 (8.6%) agreements were without constraints of publication. The remaining 24 (5.3%) protocols referred to separate agreement documents not accessible to us. Of those 432 protocols with an accessible publication agreement, 268 (62.0%) trials were published. Most agreements documented in the protocol were not reported in the subsequent publication (197/268 [73.5%]). Of 71 agreements reported in publications, 52 (73.2%) were concordant with those documented in the protocol. In 14 of 37 (37.8%) publications in which statements suggested unrestricted publication rights, at least one co-author was an industry employee. In 25 protocol-publication pairs, author statements in publications suggested no constraints, but 18 corresponding protocols documented restricting agreements. CONCLUSIONS: Publication agreements constraining academic authors' independence are common. Journal articles seldom report on publication agreements, and, if they do, statements can be discrepant with the trial protocol

Prevalence, characteristics, and publication of discontinued randomized trials.

IMPORTANCE: The discontinuation of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) raises ethical concerns and often wastes scarce research resources. The epidemiology of discontinued RCTs, however, remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence, characteristics, and publication history of discontinued RCTs and to investigate factors associated with RCT discontinuation due to poor recruitment and with nonpublication. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort of RCTs based on archived protocols approved by 6 research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada between 2000 and 2003. We recorded trial characteristics and planned recruitment from included protocols. Last follow-up of RCTs was April 27, 2013. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Completion status, reported reasons for discontinuation, and publication status of RCTs as determined by correspondence with the research ethics committees, literature searches, and investigator surveys. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 11.6 years (range, 8.8-12.6 years), 253 of 1017 included RCTs were discontinued (24.9% [95% CI, 22.3%-27.6%]). Only 96 of 253 discontinuations (37.9% [95% CI, 32.0%-44.3%]) were reported to ethics committees. The most frequent reason for discontinuation was poor recruitment (101/1017; 9.9% [95% CI, 8.2%-12.0%]). In multivariable analysis, industry sponsorship vs investigator sponsorship (8.4% vs 26.5%; odds ratio [OR], 0.25 [95% CI, 0.15-0.43]; P < .001) and a larger planned sample size in increments of 100 (-0.7%; OR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.92-1.00]; P = .04) were associated with lower rates of discontinuation due to poor recruitment. Discontinued trials were more likely to remain unpublished than completed trials (55.1% vs 33.6%; OR, 3.19 [95% CI, 2.29-4.43]; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this sample of trials based on RCT protocols from 6 research ethics committees, discontinuation was common, with poor recruitment being the most frequently reported reason. Greater efforts are needed to ensure the reporting of trial discontinuation to research ethics committees and the publication of results of discontinued trials

Updated precision measurement of the average lifetime of B hadrons

The measurement of the average lifetime of B hadrons using inclusively reconstructed secondary vertices has been updated using both an improved processing of previous data and additional statistics from new data. This has reduced the statistical and systematic uncertainties and gives \tau_{\mathrm{B}} = 1.582 \pm 0.011\ \mathrm{(stat.)} \pm 0.027\ \mathrm{(syst.)}\ \mathrm{ps.} Combining this result with the previous result based on charged particle impact parameter distributions yields \tau_{\mathrm{B}} = 1.575 \pm 0.010\ \mathrm{(stat.)} \pm 0.026\ \mathrm{(syst.)}\ \mathrm{ps.