Delving into the Determinants of Default Risk in Savings Groups: Empirical Evidence from Ecuador.

Financial inclusion has been broadly recognized as critical in alleviating poverty and achieving inclusive economic growth. The capability of borrowers to repay their microcredit loans is a critical concern and is the first risk of Microfinance institutions sustainability. Exploring the determinants of credit risk is an issue of substantial importance in microfinance. The purpose of this research was to identify the savings group members’ characteristics that have impact on default risk. We have used a multivariate regression model to identify the factors that affect default behaviour among microcredit borrowers from savings groups. We have analysed a sample of more than different 400 Savings Groups and 7251 active users of the “Saving and Learning” program in Ecuador. Empirical results demonstrated that factors such as seniority, accumulated savings and the number of members in the savings groups are determinant variables of default risk. The significant positive sign on variable “Gender” is consistent with the previous authors that indicate that the probability of having problems in loan repayment is higher for males than for females. The generalizability of our findings should, of course, be interpreted with caution, as they may be idiosyncratic of the sample, period or region. To contrast and contextualize these results, we had in-depth discussions with the Savinco managers and their field agent in Ecuador. There are many contributions. For practitioners, relevant factors that can affect savings groups default rates have been identified. For academics, the rich information provided by the Savinco mobile App could be a starting point for further quantitative research.post-print881 K

Multiscale entropy analysis of unattended oximetric recordings to assist in the screening of paediatric sleep apnoea at home

Producción CientíficaUntreated paediatric obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome (OSAS) can severely affect the development and quality of life of children. In-hospital polysomnography (PSG) is the gold standard for a definitive diagnosis though it is relatively unavailable and particularly intrusive. Nocturnal portable oximetry has emerged as a reliable technique for OSAS screening. Nevertheless, additional evidences are demanded. Our study is aimed at assessing the usefulness of multiscale entropy (MSE) to characterise oximetric recordings. We hypothesise that MSE could provide relevant information of blood oxygen saturation (SpO2) dynamics in the detection of childhood OSAS. In order to achieve this goal, a dataset composed of unattended SpO2 recordings from 50 children showing clinical suspicion of OSAS was analysed. SpO2 was parameterised by means of MSE and conventional oximetric indices. An optimum feature subset composed of five MSE-derived features and four conventional clinical indices were obtained using automated bidirectional stepwise feature selection. Logistic regression (LR) was used for classification. Our optimum LR model reached 83.5% accuracy (84.5% sensitivity and 83.0% specificity). Our results suggest that MSE provides relevant information from oximetry that is complementary to conventional approaches. Therefore, MSE may be useful to improve the diagnostic ability of unattended oximetry as a simplified screening test for childhood OSAS.Sociedad Española de Neumología y Cirugía Torácica (SEPAR) project 153/2015Junta de Castilla y León (Consejería de Educación) y el Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER), projects (RTC-2015-3446-1) y (TEC2014-53196-R)Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) y FEDER, y el proyecto POCTEP 0378_AD_EEGWA_2_P de la Comisión Europea. L.National Institutes of Health (NIH) grant 1R01HL130984-01Ministerio de Asuntos Económicos y Transformación Digital, grant IJCI-2014-2266

Global hybrids from the semiclassical atom theory satisfying the local density linear response

We propose global hybrid approximations of the exchange-correlation (XC) energy functional which reproduce well the modified fourth-order gradient expansion of the exchange energy in the semiclassical limit of many-electron neutral atoms and recover the full local density approximation (LDA) linear response. These XC functionals represent the hybrid versions of the APBE functional [Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 186406, (2011)] yet employing an additional correlation functional which uses the localization concept of the correlation energy density to improve the compatibility with the Hartree-Fock exchange as well as the coupling-constant-resolved XC potential energy. Broad energetical and structural testings, including thermochemistry and geometry, transition metal complexes, non-covalent interactions, gold clusters and small gold-molecule interfaces, as well as an analysis of the hybrid parameters, show that our construction is quite robust. In particular, our testing shows that the resulting hybrid, including 20\% of Hartree-Fock exchange and named hAPBE, performs remarkably well for a broad palette of systems and properties, being generally better than popular hybrids (PBE0 and B3LYP). Semi-empirical dispersion corrections are also provided.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Epsilon iron oxide: origin of the high coercivity stable low Curie temperature magnetic phase found in heated archeological materials

The identification of epsilon iron oxide (ɛ-Fe2O3) as the low Curie temperature high coercivity stable phase (HCSLT) carrying the remanence in heated archeological samples has been achieved in samples from two archeological sites that exhibited the clearest evidence of the presence of the HCSLT. This uncommon iron oxide has been detected by Confocal Raman Spectroscopy (CRS) and characterized by rock magnetic measurements. Large numbers of ɛ-Fe2O3 microaggregates (in CO) or isolated clusters (in HEL) could be recognized, distributed over the whole sample, and embedded within the ceramic matrix, along with hematite and pseudobrookite and with minor amounts of anatase, rutile, and maghemite. Curie temperature estimates of around 170°C for CO and 190°C for HEL are lower than for pure, synthetic ɛ-Fe2O3 (227°C). This, together with structural differences between the Raman spectra of the archeologically derived and synthetic samples, is likely due to Ti substitution in the ɛ-Fe2O3 crystal lattice. The γ-Fe2O3-ɛ-Fe2O3-α-Fe2O3 transformation series has been recognized in heated archeological samples, which may have implications in terms of their thermal history and in the factors that govern the formation of ɛ-Fe2O3

Incidence, associated factors and clinical impact of severe infections in a large, multicentric cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incidence of severe infection and investigate the associated factors and clinical impact in a large systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) retrospective cohort. METHODS: All patients in the Spanish Rheumatology Society Lupus Registry (RELESSER) who meet ?4 ACR-97 SLE criteria were retrospectively investigated for severe infections. Patients with and without infections were compared in terms of SLE severity, damage, comorbidities, and demographic characteristics. A multivariable Cox regression model was built to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for the first infection. RESULTS: A total of 3658 SLE patients were included: 90% female, median age 32.9 years (DQ 9.7), and mean follow-up (months) 120.2 (±87.6). A total of 705 (19.3%) patients suffered ?1 severe infection. Total severe infections recorded in these patients numbered 1227. The incidence rate was 29.2 (95% CI: 27.6-30.9) infections per 1000 patient years. Time from first infection to second infection was significantly shorter than time from diagnosis to first infection (p < 0.000). Although respiratory infections were the most common (35.5%), bloodstream infections were the most frequent cause of mortality by infection (42.0%). In the Cox regression analysis, the following were all associated with infection: age at diagnosis (HR = 1.016, 95% CI: 1.009-1.023), Latin-American (Amerindian-Mestizo) ethnicity (HR = 2.151, 95% CI: 1.539-3.005), corticosteroids (?10mg/day) (HR = 1.271, 95% CI: 1.034-1.561), immunosuppressors (HR = 1.348, 95% CI: 1.079-1.684), hospitalization by SLE (HR = 2.567, 95% CI: 1.905-3.459), Katz severity index (HR = 1.160, 95% CI: 1.105-1.217), SLICC/ACR damage index (HR = 1.069, 95% CI: 1.031-1.108), and smoking (HR = 1.332, 95% CI: 1.121-1.583). Duration of antimalarial use (months) proved protective (HR = 0.998, 95% CI: 0.997-0.999). CONCLUSIONS: Severe infection constitutes a predictor of poor prognosis in SLE patients, is more common in Latin-Americans and is associated with age, previous infection, and smoking. Antimalarials exerted a protective effect.Spanish Foundation of Rheumatology. FIS/ISCIII (grant number PI11/02857). Dr. Pego-Reigosa is supported by Grant 316265 (BIOCAPS) from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7/REGPOT-2012–2013.1)

Heritagization of the Camino to Finisterre

This chapter focuses on one of the objectives of the Finisterre route research project: to compare the concept of heritage conveyed in regional and municipal heritage policies with that of other local actors. The ethnographic studies carried out in the villages and towns with pilgrim hostels show that there is a gap between the two concepts. This chapter deals with two aspects of the disparity. Firstly, some politicians construct a sophisticated discourse on heritage regarding the Camino de Santiago, which contrasts with the lack of a term to name ‘heritage’ at a local level. The second aspect is related to the concept of heritage itself. Politicians and heritage managers have a limited concept of heritage, and therefore they dedicate their heritage policies and funding to building restoration and maintenance of the route itself. On the other hand, the local residents’ idea of heritage is broader, and includes cultural practices such as festivals and religious celebrations as well as other elements of heritage that are more difficult to catalogue, such as ‘continuing to work the land,’ ‘the rural landscape,’ or ‘our local water supplies.’ In addition, this chapter analyses various levels of conflict around heritage and the Camino.Peer reviewe

Clinical value of cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light chain in semantic dementia

© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ. This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to copy, redistribute, remix, transform and build upon this work for any purpose, provided the original work is properly cited, a link to the licence is given, and indication of whether changes were made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.Background: Semantic dementia (SD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterised by progressive language problems falling within the clinicopathological spectrum of frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD). The development of disease-modifying agents may be facilitated by the relative clinical and pathological homogeneity of SD, but we need robust monitoring biomarkers to measure their efficacy. In different FTLD subtypes, neurofilament light chain (NfL) is a promising marker, therefore we investigated the utility of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) NfL in SD. Methods: This large retrospective multicentre study compared cross-sectional CSF NfL levels of 162 patients with SD with 65 controls. CSF NfL levels of patients were correlated with clinical parameters (including survival), neuropsychological test scores and regional grey matter atrophy (including longitudinal data in a subset). Results: CSF NfL levels were significantly higher in patients with SD (median: 2326 pg/mL, IQR: 1628-3593) than in controls (577 (446-766), p<0.001). Higher CSF NfL levels were moderately associated with naming impairment as measured by the Boston Naming Test (rs =-0.32, p=0.002) and with smaller grey matter volume of the parahippocampal gyri (rs =-0.31, p=0.004). However, cross-sectional CSF NfL levels were not associated with progression of grey matter atrophy and did not predict survival. Conclusion: CSF NfL is a promising biomarker in the diagnostic process of SD, although it has limited cross-sectional monitoring or prognostic abilities.This study was funded by a Memorabel grant from Deltaplan Dementie (The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development, and Alzheimer Nederland grant number 7330598105), National Institutes of Health (Grants AG010124, AG032953, AG043503, NS088341, AG017586, AG052943, AG038490), the Wyncote Foundation, Dana Foundation, Brightfocus Foundation, Penn Institute on Aging, Pla estratègic de recerca i innovació en salut 2016-2020, Catalan Department of Health (grant number SLT002/16/00408), Italian Ministry of Health (Ricerca Corrente) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (FTLDc 01GI1007A). MS was supported by the Else Kröner-Fresenius-Stiftung. CW was supported by the Vaillant Stiftunginfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Deep-sequencing reveals broad subtype-specific HCV resistance mutations associated with treatment failure

A percentage of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients fail direct acting antiviral (DAA)-based treatment regimens, often because of drug resistance-associated substitutions (RAS). The aim of this study was to characterize the resistance profile of a large cohort of patients failing DAA-based treatments, and investigate the relationship between HCV subtype and failure, as an aid to optimizing management of these patients. A new, standardized HCV-RAS testing protocol based on deep sequencing was designed and applied to 220 previously subtyped samples from patients failing DAA treatment, collected in 39 Spanish hospitals. The majority had received DAA-based interferon (IFN) a-free regimens; 79% had failed sofosbuvir-containing therapy. Genomic regions encoding the nonstructural protein (NS) 3, NS5A, and NS5B (DAA target regions) were analyzed using subtype-specific primers. Viral subtype distribution was as follows: genotype (G) 1, 62.7%; G3a, 21.4%; G4d, 12.3%; G2, 1.8%; and mixed infections 1.8%. Overall, 88.6% of patients carried at least 1 RAS, and 19% carried RAS at frequencies below 20% in the mutant spectrum. There were no differences in RAS selection between treatments with and without ribavirin. Regardless of the treatment received, each HCV subtype showed specific types of RAS. Of note, no RAS were detected in the target proteins of 18.6% of patients failing treatment, and 30.4% of patients had RAS in proteins that were not targets of the inhibitors they received. HCV patients failing DAA therapy showed a high diversity of RAS. Ribavirin use did not influence the type or number of RAS at failure. The subtype-specific pattern of RAS emergence underscores the importance of accurate HCV subtyping. The frequency of “extra-target” RAS suggests the need for RAS screening in all three DAA target regions

Childhood acute leukemias are frequent in Mexico City: descriptive epidemiology

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Worldwide, acute leukemia is the most common type of childhood cancer. It is particularly common in the Hispanic populations residing in the United States, Costa Rica, and Mexico City. The objective of this study was to determine the incidence of acute leukemia in children who were diagnosed and treated in public hospitals in Mexico City.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Included in this study were those children, under 15 years of age and residents of Mexico City, who were diagnosed in 2006 and 2007 with leukemia, as determined by using the International Classification of Childhood Cancer. The average annual incidence rates (AAIR), and the standardized average annual incidence rates (SAAIR) per million children were calculated. We calculated crude, age- and sex-specific incidence rates and adjusted for age by the direct method with the world population as standard. We determined if there were a correlation between the incidence of acute leukemias in the various boroughs of Mexico City and either the number of agricultural hectares, the average number of persons per household, or the municipal human development index for Mexico (used as a reference of socio-economic level).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Although a total of 610 new cases of leukemia were registered during 2006-2007, only 228 fit the criteria for inclusion in this study. The overall SAAIR was 57.6 per million children (95% CI, 46.9-68.3); acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) was the most frequent type of leukemia, constituting 85.1% of the cases (SAAIR: 49.5 per million), followed by acute myeloblastic leukemia at 12.3% (SAAIR: 6.9 per million), and chronic myeloid leukemia at 1.7% (SAAIR: 0.9 per million). The 1-4 years age group had the highest SAAIR for ALL (77.7 per million). For cases of ALL, 73.2% had precursor B-cell immunophenotype (SAAIR: 35.8 per million) and 12.4% had T-cell immunophenotype (SAAIR 6.3 per million). The peak ages for ALL were 2-6 years and 8-10 years. More than half the children (58.8%) were classified as high risk. There was a positive correlation between the average number of persons per household and the incidence of the pre-B immunophenotype (Pearson's r, 0.789; P = 0.02).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The frequency of ALL in Mexico City is among the highest in the world, similar to those found for Hispanics in the United States and in Costa Rica.</p