Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change

Climate change is known to have a considerable influence on many components of the hydrological cycle. Yet, the implications for groundwater temperature, as an important driver for groundwater quality, thermal use and storage, are not yet comprehensively understood. Furthermore, few studies have examined the implications of climate-change-induced groundwater temperature rise for groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Here, we examine the coupling of atmospheric and groundwater warming by employing stochastic and deterministic models. Firstly, several decades of temperature time series are statistically analyzed with regard to climate regime shifts (CRSs) in the long-term mean. The observed increases in shallow groundwater temperatures can be associated with preceding positive shifts in regional surface air temperatures, which are in turn linked to global air temperature changes. The temperature data are also analyzed with an analytical solution to the conduction-advection heat transfer equation to investigate how subsurface heat transfer processes control the propagation of the surface temperature signals into the subsurface. In three of the four monitoring wells, the predicted groundwater temperature increases driven by the regime shifts at the surface boundary condition generally concur with the observed groundwater temperature trends. Due to complex interactions at the ground surface and the heat capacity of the unsaturated zone, the thermal signals from distinct changes in air temperature are damped and delayed in the subsurface, causing a more gradual increase in groundwater temperatures. These signals can have a significant impact on large-scale groundwater temperatures in shallow and economically important aquifers. These findings demonstrate that shallow groundwater temperatures have responded rapidly to recent climate change and thus provide insight into the vulnerability of aquifers and groundwater-dependent ecosystems to future climate change

Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change

Climate change is known to have a considerable influence on many components of the hydrological cycle. Yet, the implications for groundwater temperature, as an important driver for groundwater quality, thermal use and storage, are not yet comprehensively understood. Furthermore, few studies have examined the implications of climate-change-induced groundwater temperature rise for groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Here, we examine the coupling of atmospheric and groundwater warming by employing stochastic and deterministic models. Firstly, several decades of temperature time series are statistically analyzed with regard to climate regime shifts (CRSs) in the long-term mean. The observed increases in shallow groundwater temperatures can be associated with preceding positive shifts in regional surface air temperatures, which are in turn linked to global air temperature changes. The temperature data are also analyzed with an analytical solution to the conduction–advection heat transfer equation to investigate how subsurface heat transfer processes control the propagation of the surface temperature signals into the subsurface. In three of the four monitoring wells, the predicted groundwater temperature increases driven by the regime shifts at the surface boundary condition generally concur with the observed groundwater temperature trends. Due to complex interactions at the ground surface and the heat capacity of the unsaturated zone, the thermal signals from distinct changes in air temperature are damped and delayed in the subsurface, causing a more gradual increase in groundwater temperatures. These signals can have a significant impact on large-scale groundwater temperatures in shallow and economically important aquifers. These findings demonstrate that shallow groundwater temperatures have responded rapidly to recent climate change and thus provide insight into the vulnerability of aquifers and groundwater-dependent ecosystems to future climate change

Shallow subsurface heat recycling is a sustainable global space heating alternative

Despite the global interest in green energy alternatives, little attention has focused on the large-scale viability of recycling the ground heat accumulated due to urbanization, industrialization and climate change. Here we show this theoretical heat potential at a multi-continental scale by first leveraging datasets of groundwater temperature and lithology to assess the distribution of subsurface thermal pollution. We then evaluate subsurface heat recycling for three scenarios: a status quo scenario representing present-day accumulated heat, a recycled scenario with ground temperatures returned to background values, and a climate change scenario representing projected warming impacts. Our analyses reveal that over 50% of sites show recyclable underground heat pollution in the status quo, 25% of locations would be feasible for long-term heat recycling for the recycled scenario, and at least 83% for the climate change scenario. Results highlight that subsurface heat recycling warrants consideration in the move to a low-carbon economy in a warmer world

Theory, tools, and multidisciplinary applications for tracing groundwater fluxes from temperature profiles

Quantifying groundwater fluxes to and from deep aquifers or shallow sediment is a critical task faced by researchers and practitioners from many environmental science disciplines including hydrology, hydrogeology, ecology, climatology, and oceanography. Groundwater discharge to inland and coastal water bodies influences their water budgets, thermal regimes, and biogeochemistry. Conversely, downward water flow from the land surface or from surface water bodies to underlying aquifers represents an important water flux that must be quantified for sustainable groundwater management. Because these vertical subsurface flows are slow and typically diffuse, they cannot be measured directly and must rather be estimated using groundwater tracers. Heat is a naturally occurring groundwater tracer that is ubiquitous in the subsurface and readily measured. Most of the academic literature has focused on groundwater temperature tracing methods capitalizing on the propagation of diel temperature sine waves into sediment beneath surface water bodies. Such methods rely on temperature–time series to infer groundwater fluxes and are typically only viable in the shallow subsurface and in locations with focused groundwater fluxes. Alternative methods that utilize temperature–depth profiles are applicable across a broader range of hydrologic environments, and point‐in‐time measurements can be quickly taken to cover larger spatial scales. Applications of these methods have been impeded due in part to the lack of understanding regarding their potential applications and limitations. Herein, we highlight relevant theory, thermal data collection techniques, and recent diverse field applications to stimulate further multidisciplinary uptake of thermal groundwater tracing methods that rely on temperature–depth profiles

Present and Future Thermal Regimes of Intertidal Groundwater Springs in a Threatened Coastal Ecosystem

In inland settings, groundwater discharge thermally modulates receiving surface water bodies and provides localized thermal refuges; however, the thermal influence of intertidal springs on coastal waters and their thermal sensitivity to climate change are not well studied. We addressed this knowledge gap with a field- and model-based study of a threatened coastal lagoon ecosystem in southeastern Canada. We paired analyses of drone-based thermal imagery with in situ thermal and hydrologic monitoring to estimate discharge to the lagoon from intertidal springs and groundwater-dominated streams in summer 2020. Results, which were generally supported by independent radon-based groundwater discharge estimates, revealed that combined summertime spring inflows (0.047 m3 s-1) were comparable to combined stream inflows (0.050m3 s-1). Net advection values for the streams and springs were also comparable to each other but were 2 orders of magnitude less than the downwelling shortwave radiation across the lagoon. Although lagoon-scale thermal effects of groundwater inflows were small compared to atmospheric forcing, spring discharge dominated heat transfer at a local scale, creating pronounced cold-water plumes along the shoreline. A numerical model was used to interpret measured groundwater temperature data and investigate seasonal and multi-decadal groundwater temperature patterns. Modelled seasonal temperatures were used to relate measured spring temperatures to their respective aquifer source depths, while multi-decadal simulations forced by historic and projected climate data were used to assess long-term groundwater warming. Based on the 2020-2100 climate scenarios (for which 5-year-averaged air temperature increased up to 4.32°), modelled 5-year-averaged subsurface temperatures increased 0.08-2.23° in shallow groundwater (4.2 m depth) and 0.32-1.42 degrees in the deeper portion of the aquifer (13.9 m), indicating the depth dependency of warming. This study presents the first analysis of the thermal sensitivity of groundwater-dependent coastal ecosystems to climate change and indicates that coastal ecosystem management should consider potential impacts of groundwater warming

Pore water exchange-driven inorganic carbon export from intertidal salt marshes

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Tamborski, J. J., Eagle, M., Kurylyk, B. L., Kroeger, K. D., Wang, Z. A., Henderson, P., & Charette: 1774-1792, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11721.Respiration in intertidal salt marshes generates dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) that is exported to the coastal ocean by tidal exchange with the marsh platform. Understanding the link between physical drivers of water exchange and chemical flux is a key to constraining coastal wetland contributions to regional carbon budgets. The spatial and temporal (seasonal, annual) variability of marsh pore water exchange and DIC export was assessed from a microtidal salt marsh (Sage Lot Pond, Massachusetts). Spatial variability was constrained from 224Ra : 228Th disequilibria across two hydrologic units within the marsh sediments. Disequilibrium between the more soluble 224Ra and its sediment-bound parent 228Th reveals significant pore water exchange in the upper 5 cm of the marsh surface (0–36 L m−2 d−1) that is most intense in low marsh elevation zones, driven by tidal overtopping. Surficial sediment DIC transport ranges from 0.0 to 0.7 g C m−2 d−1. The sub-surface sediment horizon intersected by mean low tide was disproportionately impacted by tidal pumping (20–80 L m−2 d−1) and supplied a seasonal DIC flux of 1.7–5.4 g C m−2 d−1. Export exceeded 10 g C m−2 d−1 for another marsh unit, demonstrating that fluxes can vary substantially across salt marshes under similar conditions within the same estuary. Seasonal and annual variability in marsh pore water exchange, constrained from tidal time-series of radium isotopes, was driven in part by variability in mean sea level. Rising sea levels will further inundate high marsh elevation zones, which may lead to greater DIC export.This research was undertaken thanks in part to funding from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, through the Ocean Frontier Institute. Additional funding was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal & Marine Geology Program and the USGS Land Change Science Program's LandCarbon program

Closing the gap between science and management of cold-water refuges in rivers and streams

Human activities and climate change threaten coldwater organisms in freshwater eco-systems by causing rivers and streams to warm, increasing the intensity and frequency of warm temperature events, and reducing thermal heterogeneity. Cold-water refuges are discrete patches of relatively cool water that are used by coldwater organisms for thermal relief and short-term survival. Globally, cohesive management approaches are needed that consider interlinked physical, biological, and social factors of cold-water refuges. We review current understanding of cold-water refuges, identify gaps between science and management, and evaluate policies aimed at protecting thermally sensitive species. Existing policies include designating cold-water habitats, restricting fishing during warm periods, and implementing threshold temperature standards or guidelines. However, these policies are rare and uncoordinated across spatial scales and often do not consider input from Indigenous peoples. We propose that cold-water refuges be managed as dis-tinct operational landscape units, which provide a social and ecological context that is relevant at the watershed scale. These operational landscape units provide the founda-tion for an integrated framework that links science and management by (1) mapping and characterizing cold-water refuges to prioritize management and conservation actions, (2) leveraging existing and new policies, (3) improving coordination across jurisdictions, and (4) implementing adaptive management practices across scales. Our findings show that while there are many opportunities for scientific advancement, the current state of the sciences is sufficient to inform policy and management. Our proposed framework pro-vides a path forward for managing and protecting cold-water refuges using existing and new policies to protect coldwater organisms in the face of global change. behavioral thermoregulation, climate change adaptation, lotic ecosystem management, refugia, salmonids, temperature, thermal heterogeneity, thermal refugespublishedVersio

Closing the gap between science and management of cold‐water refuges in rivers and streams

Human activities and climate change threaten coldwater organisms in freshwater ecosystems by causing rivers and streams to warm, increasing the intensity and frequency of warm temperature events, and reducing thermal heterogeneity. Cold-water refuges are discrete patches of relatively cool water that are used by coldwater organisms for thermal relief and short-term survival. Globally, cohesive management approaches are needed that consider interlinked physical, biological, and social factors of cold-water refuges. We review current understanding of cold-water refuges, identify gaps between science and management, and evaluate policies aimed at protecting thermally sensitive species. Existing policies include designating cold-water habitats, restricting fishing during warm periods, and implementing threshold temperature standards or guidelines. However, these policies are rare and uncoordinated across spatial scales and often do not consider input from Indigenous peoples. We propose that cold-water refuges be managed as distinct operational landscape units, which provide a social and ecological context that is relevant at the watershed scale. These operational landscape units provide the foundation for an integrated framework that links science and management by (1) mapping and characterizing cold-water refuges to prioritize management and conservation actions, (2) leveraging existing and new policies, (3) improving coordination across jurisdictions, and (4) implementing adaptive management practices across scales. Our findings show that while there are many opportunities for scientific advancement, the current state of the sciences is sufficient to inform policy and management. Our proposed framework provides a path forward for managing and protecting cold-water refuges using existing and new policies to protect coldwater organisms in the face of global change

Thermodynamics in the hydrologic response: Travel time formulation and application to Alpine catchments

This paper presents a spatially-explicit model for hydro-thermal response simulations of Alpine catchments, accounting for advective and non-advective energy fluxes in stream networks characterized by arbitrary degrees of geomorphological complexity. The relevance of the work stems from the increasing scientific interest concerning the impacts of the warming climate on water resources management and temperature-controlled ecological processes. The description of the advective energy uxes is cast in a travel time formulation of water and energy transport, resulting in a closed form solution for water temperature evolution in the soil compartment. The application to Alpine catchments hinges on the boundary conditions provided by the fully-distributed and physically-based snow model Alpine3D. The performance of the simulations is illustrated by comparing modeled and measured hydrographs and thermographs at the outlet of the Dischma catchment (45 km2) in the Swiss Alps. The Monte Carlo calibration shows that the model is robust and that a simultaneous fitting of stream ow and stream temperature reduces the uncertainty in the hydrological parameters estimation. The calibrated model also provides a good fit to the measurements in the validation period, suggesting that it could be employed for predictive applications, both for hydrological and ecological purposes. The temperature of the subsurface flow, as described by the proposed travel time formulation, proves warmer than the stream temperature during winter and colder during summer. Finally, the spatially-explicit results of the model during snowmelt show a notable hydro-thermal spatial variability in the river network, owing to the small spatial correlation of infilltration and meteorological forcings in Alpine regions

Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw‐induced collapse‐scar bog (‘wetland’) expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape‐scale net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEELAND), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEELAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature‐ and light‐limited NEELAND of a boreal forest–wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEELAND (−20 g C m−2) and wetland NEE (−24 g C m−2) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEELAND. In contrast, we find non‐negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEELAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light‐limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year‐round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO2 uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO2 uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m−2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m−2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO2 uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO2 uptake of boreal forest–wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO2 sources under continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We conclude that NEELAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts