A Flexible Indicator-Based Approach to Assessing the Ecological Integrity of South Carolina Watersheds

2008 S.C. Water Resources Conference - Addressing Water Challenges Facing the State and Regio

Tri-Variate Relationships Among Vegetation, Soil, and Topography Along Gradients of Fluvial Biogeomorphic Succession

This research investigated how the strength of vegetation–soil–topography couplings varied along a gradient of biogeomorphic succession in two distinct fluvial systems: a forested river floodplain and a coastal salt marsh creek. The strength of couplings was quantified as tri-variance, which was calculated by correlating three singular axes, one each extracted using three-block partial least squares from vegetation, soil, and topography data blocks. Within each system, tri-variance was examined at low-, mid-, and high-elevation sites, which represented early-, intermediate-, and late-successional phases, respectively, and corresponded to differences in ongoing disturbance frequency and intensity. Both systems exhibited clearly increasing tri-variance from the early- to late-successional stages. The lowest-lying sites underwent frequent and intense hydrogeomorphic forcings that dynamically reworked soil substrates, restructured surface landforms, and controlled the colonization of plant species. Such conditions led vegetation, soil, and topography to show discrete, stochastic, and individualistic behaviors over space and time, resulting in a loose coupling among the three ecosystem components. In the highest-elevation sites, in contrast, disturbances that might disrupt the existing biotic–abiotic relationships were less common. Hence, ecological succession, soil-forming processes, and landform evolution occurred in tight conjunction with one another over a prolonged period, thereby strengthening couplings among them; namely, the three behaved in unity over space and time. We propose that the recurrence interval of physical disturbance is important to—and potentially serves as an indicator of—the intensity and mechanisms of vegetation–soil–topography feedbacks in fluvial biogeomorphic systems

Modeling Flood Inundation & Hydrological Connectivity Across the Congaree River Floodplain, Congaree National Park

2012 S.C. Water Resources Conference - Exploring Opportunities for Collaborative Water Research, Policy and Managemen

Using Mobile Device Data to Track the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Spatiotemporal Patterns of National Park Visitation

Effective quantification of visitation is important for understanding many impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on national parks and other protected areas. In this study, we mapped and analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of visitation for six national parks in the western U.S., taking advantage of large mobility records sampled from mobile devices and released by SafeGraph as part of their Social Distancing Metric dataset. Based on comparisons with visitation statistics released by the U.S. National Park Service, our results confirmed that mobility records from digital devices can effectively capture park visitation patterns but with much finer spatiotemporal granularity. In general, triggers of visitation changes corresponded well with the parks’ management responses to COVID-19, with all six parks showing dramatic decreases in the number of visitors (compared to 2019) beginning in March 2020 and continuing through April and May. As restrictions were eased to promote access to the parks and the benefits associated with outdoor recreation, visitation in 2020 approached or even passed that from 2019 by late summer or early autumn at most of the parks. The results also revealed that parks initially saw the greatest increases in visitation after reopening originating from nearby states, with visitorship coming from a broader range of states as time passed. Our study highlights the capability of mobility data for providing spatiotemporally explicit knowledge of place visitation

Robust Projections of Future Fire Probability for the Conterminous United States

Globally increasing wildfires have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, providing decision makers with a clear understanding of how future planetary warming could affect fire regimes is complicated by confounding land use factors that influence wildfire and by uncertainty associated with model simulations of climate change. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models in combination with the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM) to project changing potential fire probabilities in the conterminous United States for two scenarios representing lower (RCP 4.5) and higher (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission futures. PC2FM is a physically-based and scale-independent model that predicts mean fire return intervals from both fire reactant and reaction variables, which are largely dependent on a locale\u27s climate. Our results overwhelmingly depict increasing potential fire probabilities across the conterminous US for both climate scenarios. The primary mechanism for the projected increases is rising temperatures, reflecting changes in the chemical reaction environment commensurate with enhanced photosynthetic rates and available thermal molecular energy. Existing high risk areas, such as the Cascade Range and the Coastal California Mountains, are projected to experience greater annual fire occurrence probabilities, with relative increases of 122% and 67%, respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to increases of 63% and 38% under RCP 4.5. Regions not currently associated with frequently occurring wildfires, such as New England and the Great Lakes, are projected to experience a doubling of occurrence probabilities by 2100 under RCP 8.5. This high resolution, continental-scale modeling study of climate change impacts on potential fire probability accounts for shifting background environmental conditions across regions that will interact with topographic drivers to significantly alter future fire probabilities. The ensemble modeling approach presents a useful planning tool for mitigation and adaptation strategies in regions of increasing wildfire risk

Considering the case for an antidepressant drug trial involving temporary deception: a qualitative enquiry of potential participants

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Systematic reviews of randomised placebo controlled trials of antidepressant medication show small and decreasing differences between pharmacological and placebo arms. In part this finding may relate to methodological problems with conventional trial designs, including their assumption of additivity between drug and placebo trial arms. Balanced placebo designs, which include elements of deception, may address the additivity question, but pose substantial ethical and pragmatic problems. This study aimed to ascertain views of potential study participants of the ethics and pragmatics of various balanced placebo designs, in order to inform the design of future antidepressant drug trials.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A qualitative approach was employed to explore the perspectives of general practitioners, psychiatrists, and patients with experience of depression. The doctors were chosen via purposive sampling, while patients were recruited through participating general practitioners. Three focus groups and 12 in-depth interviews were conducted. A vignette-based topic guide invited views on three deceptive strategies: post hoc, authorised and minimised deception. The focus groups and interviews were tape-recorded and transcribed. Transcripts were analysed thematically using Framework.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Deception in non-research situations was typically perceived as acceptable within specific parameters. All participants could see the potential utility of introducing deception into trial designs, however views on the acceptability of deception within antidepressant drug trials varied substantially. Authorized deception was the most commonly accepted strategy, though some thought this would reduce the effectiveness of the design because participants would correctly guess the deceptive element. The major issues that affected views about the acceptability of deception studies were the welfare and capacity of patients, practicalities of trial design, and the question of trust.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There is a trade-off between pragmatic and ethical responses to the question of whether, and under what circumstances, elements of deception could be introduced into antidepressant drug trials. Ensuring adequate ethical safeguards within balanced placebo designs is likely to diminish their ability to address the crucial issue of additivity. The balanced placebo designs considered in this study are unlikely to be feasible in future trials of antidepressant medication. However there remains an urgent need to improve the quality of antidepressant drug trials.</p

Plasma Dynamics

Contains reports on five research projects.U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientifc Research (Contract AFOSR 84-0026)National Science Foundation (Grant ECS 85-14517)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Subcontract 6264005)National Science Foundation (Grant ECS 85-15032)U.S. Department of Energy (Contract DE-ACO2-78-ET-51013)U.S. Department of Energy (Contract DE-ACO2-ET-51013

Developments in exercise capacity assessment in heart failure clinical trials and the rationale for the design of METEORIC-HF

Heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is a highly morbid condition for which exercise intolerance is a major manifestation. However, methods to assess exercise capacity in HFrEF vary widely in clinical practice and in trials. We describe advances in exercise capacity assessment in HFrEF and a comparative analysis of how various therapies available for HFrEF impact exercise capacity. Current guideline-directed medical therapy has indirect effects on cardiac performance with minimal impact on measured functional capacity. Omecamtiv mecarbil is a novel selective cardiac myosin activator that directly increases cardiac contractility and in a phase 3 cardiovascular outcomes study significantly reduced the primary composite end point of time to first heart failure event or cardiovascular death in patients with HFrEF. The objective of the METEORIC-HF trial (Multicenter Exercise Tolerance Evaluation of Omecamtiv Mecarbil Related to Increased Contractility in Heart Failure) is to assess the effect of omecamtiv mecarbil versus placebo on multiple components of functional capacity in HFrEF. The primary end point is to test the effect of omecamtiv mecarbil compared with placebo on peak oxygen uptake as measured by cardiopulmonary exercise testing after 20 weeks of treatment. METEORIC-HF will provide state-of-the-art assessment of functional capacity by measuring ventilatory efficiency, circulatory power, ventilatory anaerobic threshold, oxygen uptake recovery kinetics, daily activity, and quality-of-life assessment. Thus, the METEORIC-HF trial will evaluate the potential impact of increased myocardial contractility with omecamtiv mecarbil on multiple important measures of functional capacity in ambulatory patients with symptomatic HFrEF

Decrease in Incidence of Colorectal Cancer Among Individuals 50 Years or Older After Recommendations for Population-based Screening

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the United States is increasing among adults younger than 50 years, but incidence has decreased among older populations after population-based screening was recommended in the late 1980s. Blacks have higher incidence than whites. These patterns have prompted suggestions to lower the screening age for average-risk populations or in blacks. At the same time, there has been controversy over whether reductions in CRC incidence can be attributed to screening. We examined age-related and race-related differences in CRC incidence during a 40-year time period. METHODS: We determined the age-standardized incidence of CRC from 1975 through 2013 by using the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of cancer registries. We calculated incidence for 5-year age categories (20-24 years through 80-84 years and 85 years or older) for different time periods (1975-1979, 1980-1984, 1985-1989, 1990-1994, 1995-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2013), tumor subsite (proximal colon, descending colon, and rectum), and stages at diagnosis (localized, regional, and distant). Analyses were stratified by race (white vs black). RESULTS: There were 450,682 incident cases of CRC reported to the SEER registries during the entire period (1975-2013). Overall incidence was 75.5/100,000 white persons and 83.6/100,000 black persons. CRC incidence peaked during 1980 through 1989 and began to decrease in 1990. In whites and blacks, the decreases in incidence between the time periods of 1980-1984 and 2010-2013 were limited to the screening-age population (ages 50 years or older). Between these time periods, there was 40% decrease in incidence among whites compared with 26% decrease in incidence among blacks. Decreases in incidence were greater for cancers of the distal colon and rectum, and reductions in these cancers were greater among whites than blacks. CRC incidence among persons younger than 50 years decreased slightly between 1975-1979 and 1990. However, among persons 20-49 years old, CRC incidence increased from 8.3/100,000 persons in 1990-1994 to 11.4/100,000 persons in 2010-2013; incidence rates in younger adults were similar for whites and blacks. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of an analysis of the SEER cancer registries from 1975 through 2013, CRC incidence decreased only among individuals 50 years or older between the time periods of 1980-1984 and 2010-2013. Incidence increased modestly among individuals 20-49 years old between the time periods of 1990-1994 and 2010-2013. The decision of whether to recommend screening for younger populations requires a formal analysis of risks and benefits. Our observed trends provide compelling evidence that screening has had an important role in reducing CRC incidence