Evidence of a stratospheric QBO modulation of tropical convection

January 1993.Also issued as author's thesis (M.S.) -- Colorado State University, 1992.Includes bibliographical references.Evidence is presented of a modulation of deep tropical convection by the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (SQBO) in convective anomalies, precipitation and pressure in the Western Tropical Pacific region. In particular, the SQBO, by creating differing amounts of upper tropospheric (200 mb) to lower stratospheric (50 mb) zonal wind shear, appears to modulate deep tropical convection. Results suggest that in the tropical West Pacific region, strong values of this vertical shear act to suppress convection, limit rainfall and often raise surface pressures. During the west phase of the SQBO, areas of least 200 mb to 50 mb shear are located in off-equator regions. In contrast, during the east phase of the SQBO, minimum 200 mb to 50 mb zonal wind shear is located along the equator. These differences result in convection being preferred off (on) the equator during the west (east) phase of the SQBO. Because the SQBO creates opposing patterns of this 200 mb to 50 mb zonal wind shear during the east and west phases, convection is modulated by each of these patterns for a prolonged (6-18 month) period, thus allowing time for gradual change in the West Pacific general circulation. The convection, rainfall, pressure, and circulation patterns associated with the differing phases of the SQBO are discussed along with a preliminary theory for these patterns. Furthermore, evidence is presented that the west phase of the SQBO favors cold ENSO events whereas the east phase favors warm ENSO events.Sponsored by NOAA NA16RC0116, and NSF ATM-9115184

A simple model for predicting the hurricane radius of maximum wind from outer size

The radius of maximum wind ($R_{max}$) in a hurricane governs the footprint of hazards, particularly damaging wind and rainfall. However, $R_{max}$ is noisy to observe directly and is poorly resolved in reanalyses and climate models. In contrast, outer wind radii are much less sensitive to such issues. Here we present a simple empirical model for predicting $R_{max}$ from the radius of 34-kt wind ($R_{17.5ms}$) that only requires as input quantities that are routinely estimated operationally: maximum wind speed, $R_{17.5ms}$, and latitude. The form of the empirical model takes advantage of our physical understanding of hurricane radial structure and is trained on the Extended Best Track database from the North Atlantic; results are similar for the TC-OBS database. The physics reduces the relationship between the two radii to a dependence on two physical parameters, while the observational data enables an optimal estimate of the quantitative dependence on those parameters. The model performs substantially better than existing operational methods for estimating $R_{max}$. The model reproduces the observed statistical increase in $R_{max}$ with latitude and demonstrates that this increase is driven by the increase in $R_{17.5ms}$ with latitude. Overall, the model offers a simple and fast first-order prediction of $R_{max}$ that can be used operationally and in risk models

Development of RGB Composite Imagery for Operational Weather Forecasting Applications

No abstract availabl

Development of RGB Composite Imagery for Operational Weather Forecasting Applications

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, in collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), is providing red-green-blue (RGB) color composite imagery to several of NOAA s National Centers and National Weather Service forecast offices as a demonstration of future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) to be implemented aboard GOES-R. Forecasters rely upon geostationary satellite imagery to monitor conditions over their regions of responsibility. Since the ABI will provide nearly three times as many channels as the current GOES imager, the volume of data available for analysis will increase. RGB composite imagery can aid in the compression of large data volumes by combining information from multiple channels or paired channel differences into single products that communicate more information than provided by a single channel image. A standard suite of RGB imagery has been developed by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), based upon the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). The SEVIRI instrument currently provides visible and infrared wavelengths comparable to the future GOES-R ABI. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites can be used to demonstrate future capabilities of GOES-R. This presentation will demonstrate an overview of the products currently disseminated to SPoRT partners within the GOES-R Proving Ground, and other National Weather Service forecast offices, along with examples of their application. For example, CIRA has used the channels of the current GOES sounder to produce an "air mass" RGB originally designed for SEVIRI. This provides hourly imagery over CONUS for looping applications while demonstrating capabilities similar to the future ABI instrument. SPoRT has developed similar "air mass" RGB imagery from MODIS, and through a case study example, synoptic-scale features evident in single-channel water vapor imagery are shown in the context of the air mass product. Other products, such as the "nighttime microphysics" RGB, are useful in the detection of low clouds and fog. Nighttime microphysics products from MODIS offer some advantages over single-channel or spectral difference techniques and will be discussed in the context of a case study. Finally, other RGB products from SEVIRI are being demonstrated as precursors to GOES-R within the GOES-R Proving Ground. Examples of "natural color" and "dust" imagery will be shown with relevant applications

Analysis of Hurricanes Using Long-Range Lightning Detection Networks

The new GOES-R satellite will be equipped with the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will provide unprecedented total lightning data with the potential to improve hurricane intensity forecasts. Past studies have provided conflicting interpretations of the role that lightning plays in forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes. With the goal of improving the usefulness of total lightning, detailed case studies were conducted of five TCs that underwent rapid intensification (RI) within the domains of two unique ground-based long-range lightning detection networks, the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN). This analysis will provide greater details of the distribution of lightning within predefined storm features to highlight specific phenomena that large statistical studies cannot resolve.Both WWLLN and ENTLN datasets showed similar spatial and temporal patterns in lightning that validates the independent use of either network for analysis. For the cases examined, a maxima in eyewall lightning was located downshear and in the front-right quadrants relative to storm motion. Results show that RI follows a burst of lightning in the eyewall when coinciding with a period of little environmental vertical shear. Eyewall lightning would cycle with greater frequency during intensification compared to weakening. Bursts of lightning were observed in the eyewall just prior to eye formation in both the infrared and microwave imagery. Eyewall lightning bursts in low shear environments could be used to indicate intensification and improve forecasts.University Libraries Undergraduate Research Awardundergraduat

Ocean observations in support of studies and forecasts of tropical and extratropical cyclones

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Domingues, R., Kuwano-Yoshida, A., Chardon-Maldonado, P., Todd, R. E., Halliwell, G., Kim, H., Lin, I., Sato, K., Narazaki, T., Shay, L. K., Miles, T., Glenn, S., Zhang, J. A., Jayne, S. R., Centurioni, L., Le Henaff, M., Foltz, G. R., Bringas, F., Ali, M. M., DiMarco, S. F., Hosoda, S., Fukuoka, T., LaCour, B., Mehra, A., Sanabia, E. R., Gyakum, J. R., Dong, J., Knaff, J. A., & Goni, G. Ocean observations in support of studies and forecasts of tropical and extratropical cyclones. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 446, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00446.Over the past decade, measurements from the climate-oriented ocean observing system have been key to advancing the understanding of extreme weather events that originate and intensify over the ocean, such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical bomb cyclones (ECs). In order to foster further advancements to predict and better understand these extreme weather events, a need for a dedicated observing system component specifically to support studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs has been identified, but such a system has not yet been implemented. New technologies, pilot networks, targeted deployments of instruments, and state-of-the art coupled numerical models have enabled advances in research and forecast capabilities and illustrate a potential framework for future development. Here, applications and key results made possible by the different ocean observing efforts in support of studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs, as well as recent advances in observing technologies and strategies are reviewed. Then a vision and specific recommendations for the next decade are discussed.This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and JSPS KAKENHI (Grant Numbers: JP17K19093, JP16K12591, and JP16H01846)

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)