Plant trait covariance and nonlinear averaging: A reply to Koussoroplis et al.

SADIE (Spatial Analysis by Distance Indices) is designed specifically to quantify patterns in spatially-referenced count-based data. It was developed for dealing with data that can be considered ‘patchy’. Such distributions are commonly found, for example, in insect populations where discrete patches of individuals are often evident. The distributions of such populations have ‘hard edges’, with patches and gaps occurring spatially. In these cases variance of abundance does not vary smoothly, but discontinuously. In this paper we outline the use of SADIE and provide free access to the SADIE software suite, establishing Rethinking Ecology as its permanent home. Finally, we review the use of SADIE and demonstrate its use in a wide variety of sub-disciplines within the general field of ecology

The mechanisms of phenology: the patterns and processes of phenological shifts

Species across a wide range of taxa and habitats are shifting phenological events in response to climate change. While advances are common, shifts vary in magnitude and direction within and among species, and the basis for this variation is relatively unknown. We examine previously suggested patterns of variation in phenological shifts in order to understand the cue-response mechanisms that underlie phenological change. Here, we review what is known about the mechanistic basis for nine factors proposed to predict phenological change (latitude, elevation, habitat type, trophic level, migratory strategy, ecological specialization, species\u27 seasonality, thermoregulatory mode, and generation time). We find that many studies either do not identify a specific underlying mechanism or do not evaluate alternative mechanistic hypotheses, limiting the ability of scientists to predict future responses to global change with accuracy. We present a conceptual framework that emphasizes a critical distinction between environmental (cue-driven) and organismal (response-driven) mechanisms causing variation in phenological shifts and discuss how this distinction can reduce confusion in the field and improve predictions of future phenological change

Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution

Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (r), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS). D. Romero is a PhD student at the University of Malaga with a grant of the Ministerio de Educacio´n y Ciencia (AP 2007-03633

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species

Disentangling the direct, indirect, and combined effects of experimental warming on a plant–insect herbivore interaction

There is increasing evidence that climate warming will have both direct and indirect effects on species. Whereas the direct effects of climate warming represent the proximate physiological consequences of changing abiotic conditions, the indirect effects of climate change reflect changes mediated by at least one other interacting species. The relative importance of these two kinds of effects has been unclear, limiting our ability to generalize the response of different species to climate change. Here, we used a series of experiments to disentangle some of the key direct and indirect effects of warming on the growth of monarch butterfly caterpillars (Danaus plexippus) and showy milkweed plants (Asclepias speciosa) during a window of rapid growth for both species. The effects of warming differed between direct, indirect, and combined effect experiments. Warming from 26°C to 30°C directly increased the growth of both monarch larvae and milkweeds, with monarch and milkweed growth rates showing similar sensitivity to warming. However, in a subsequent experiment, we did not observe significantly increased growth when comparing caterpillars and plants reared at 27°C and 31°C, suggesting that small differences can change the direct effects of warming. When caterpillars that were maintained at laboratory temperatures were fed leaves from host plants that were exposed to warmer temperatures, warming had a negative indirect effect on larval growth rates likely mediated by decreases in milkweed leaf quality. In experiments combining direct and indirect effects, we observed a net positive effect of warming on larval growth rates. Warming had no combined effects on milkweed growth, potentially due to opposing positive direct and negative indirect effects on growth mediated via increased monarch herbivory. These results show how variability among the direct, indirect, and combined effects of even relatively simple, short-term climatic perturbations can present challenges for predicting the broader effects of climatic warming in multispecies communities

Plant trait covariance and nonlinear averaging: A reply to Koussoroplis et al.

SADIE (Spatial Analysis by Distance Indices) is designed specifically to quantify patterns in spatially-referenced count-based data. It was developed for dealing with data that can be considered ‘patchy’. Such distributions are commonly found, for example, in insect populations where discrete patches of individuals are often evident. The distributions of such populations have ‘hard edges’, with patches and gaps occurring spatially. In these cases variance of abundance does not vary smoothly, but discontinuously. In this paper we outline the use of SADIE and provide free access to the SADIE software suite, establishing Rethinking Ecology as its permanent home. Finally, we review the use of SADIE and demonstrate its use in a wide variety of sub-disciplines within the general field of ecology

Caterpillars escape predation in habitat and thermal refuges

1. Climate and, therefore, abiotic conditions, are changing rapidly, and many ecological interactions depend on them. In this study, how abiotic conditions mediate a predator-prey interaction were examined. 2. Caterpillars of Platyprepia virginalis (Boisduval) (Arctiidae) were found previously to be more abundant in wet habitats and thick litter cover compared with drier habitats and little or no litter. We hypothesised that wet litter provided caterpillars with refuges from an important ant predator, Formica lasioides. It was further hypothesised that caterpillars would be able to move at lower temperatures than ants, thus providing them with a thermal refuge. 3. In the lab, caterpillars were more likely to escape ant predation and survive on wet litter and at lower temperatures. At all temperatures, ant recruitment was lower in wet litter than dry litter although ants were more active on litter than bare soil. Thus, wet litter may serve as a habitat refuge for caterpillars from ants. 4. Caterpillars were able to maintain activity at temperatures 8-14°C lower than F. lasioides. Thus colder temperatures may serve as a thermal refuge for caterpillars from ants. 5. It was hypothesised that caterpillars can escape ant predation when precipitation causes wet litter and at temperatures that they experience commonly in the field. This mismatch between caterpillars and their predators in ability to tolerate wet litter and low temperatures may affect their field distribution and abundance. Expected future warmer and drier conditions may not provide these refuges

Caterpillars escape predation in habitat and thermal refuges

1. Climate and, therefore, abiotic conditions, are changing rapidly, and many ecological interactions depend on them. In this study, how abiotic conditions mediate a predator-prey interaction were examined. 2. Caterpillars of Platyprepia virginalis (Boisduval) (Arctiidae) were found previously to be more abundant in wet habitats and thick litter cover compared with drier habitats and little or no litter. We hypothesised that wet litter provided caterpillars with refuges from an important ant predator, Formica lasioides. It was further hypothesised that caterpillars would be able to move at lower temperatures than ants, thus providing them with a thermal refuge. 3. In the lab, caterpillars were more likely to escape ant predation and survive on wet litter and at lower temperatures. At all temperatures, ant recruitment was lower in wet litter than dry litter although ants were more active on litter than bare soil. Thus, wet litter may serve as a habitat refuge for caterpillars from ants. 4. Caterpillars were able to maintain activity at temperatures 8-14°C lower than F. lasioides. Thus colder temperatures may serve as a thermal refuge for caterpillars from ants. 5. It was hypothesised that caterpillars can escape ant predation when precipitation causes wet litter and at temperatures that they experience commonly in the field. This mismatch between caterpillars and their predators in ability to tolerate wet litter and low temperatures may affect their field distribution and abundance. Expected future warmer and drier conditions may not provide these refuges