Retinal Wave Behavior through Activity- Dependent Refractory Periods

In the developing mammalian visual system, spontaneous retinal ganglion cell (RGC) activity contributes to and drives several aspects of visual system organization. This spontaneous activity takes the form of spreading patches of synchronized bursting that slowly advance across portions of the retina. These patches are non-repeating and tile the retina in minutes. Several transmitter systems are known to be involved, but the basic mechanism underlying wave production is still not well-understood. We present a model for retinal waves that focuses on acetylcholine mediated waves but whose principles are adaptable to other developmental stages. Its assumptions are that a) spontaneous depolarizations of amacrine cells drive wave activity; b) amacrine cells are locally connected, and c) cells receiving more input during their depolarization are subsequently less responsive and have longer periods between spontaneous depolarizations. The resulting model produces waves with non-repeating borders and randomly distributed initiation points. The wave generation mechanism appears to be chaotic and does not require neural noise to produce this wave behavior. Variations in parameter settings allow the model to produce waves that are similar in size, frequency, and velocity to those observed in several species. Our results suggest that retinal wave behavior results from activity-dependent refractory periods and that the average velocity of retinal waves depends on the duration a cell is excitatory: longer periods of excitation result in slower waves. In contrast to previous studies, we find that a single layer of cells is sufficient for wave generation. The principles described here are very general and may be adaptable to the description of spontaneous wave activity in other areas of the nervous system

Sensitivity of equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean watermasses to the position of the Indonesian Throughflow

The sensitivity of the thermal structure of the equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean pycnoclines to a model's representation of the Indonesian Straits connecting the two basins is investigated. Two integrations are performed using the global HOPE ocean model. The initial conditions and surface forcing for both cases are identical; the only difference between the runs is that one has an opening for the Indonesian Straits which spans the equator on the Pacific side, and the other has an opening which lies fully north of the equator. The resulting sensitivity throughout much of the upper ocean is greater than 0.5°C for both the equatorial Indian and Pacific. A realistic simulation of net Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport (measured in Sverdrups) is not sufficient for an adequate simulation of equatorial watermasses. The ITF must also contain a realistic admixture of northern and southern Pacific source water

Risk algorithm using serial biomarker measurements doubles the number of screen-detected cancers compared with a single-threshold rule in the United Kingdom collaborative trial of ovarian cancer screening

PURPOSE: Cancer screening strategies have commonly adopted single-biomarker thresholds to identify abnormality. We investigated the impact of serial biomarker change interpreted through a risk algorithm on cancer detection rates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, 46,237 women, age 50 years or older underwent incidence screening by using the multimodal strategy (MMS) in which annual serum cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) was interpreted with the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA). Women were triaged by the ROCA: normal risk, returned to annual screening; intermediate risk, repeat CA-125; and elevated risk, repeat CA-125 and transvaginal ultrasound. Women with persistently increased risk were clinically evaluated. All participants were followed through national cancer and/or death registries. Performance characteristics of a single-threshold rule and the ROCA were compared by using receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: After 296,911 women-years of annual incidence screening, 640 women underwent surgery. Of those, 133 had primary invasive epithelial ovarian or tubal cancers (iEOCs). In all, 22 interval iEOCs occurred within 1 year of screening, of which one was detected by ROCA but was managed conservatively after clinical assessment. The sensitivity and specificity of MMS for detection of iEOCs were 85.8% (95% CI, 79.3% to 90.9%) and 99.8% (95% CI, 99.8% to 99.8%), respectively, with 4.8 surgeries per iEOC. ROCA alone detected 87.1% (135 of 155) of the iEOCs. Using fixed CA-125 cutoffs at the last annual screen of more than 35, more than 30, and more than 22 U/mL would have identified 41.3% (64 of 155), 48.4% (75 of 155), and 66.5% (103 of 155), respectively. The area under the curve for ROCA (0.915) was significantly (P = .0027) higher than that for a single-threshold rule (0.869). CONCLUSION: Screening by using ROCA doubled the number of screen-detected iEOCs compared with a fixed cutoff. In the context of cancer screening, reliance on predefined single-threshold rules may result in biomarkers of value being discarded

Effect of a behavioural intervention in obese pregnant women (the UPBEAT study):a multicentre, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Behavioural interventions might improve clinical outcomes in pregnant women who are obese. We aimed to investigate whether a complex intervention addressing diet and physical activity could reduce the incidence of gestational diabetes and large-for-gestational-age infants.METHODS: The UK Pregnancies Better Eating and Activity Trial (UPBEAT) is a randomised controlled trial done at antenatal clinics in eight hospitals in multi-ethnic, inner-city locations in the UK. We recruited pregnant women (15-18 weeks plus 6 days of gestation) older than 16 years who were obese (BMI ?30 kg/m(2)). We randomly assigned participants to either a behavioural intervention or standard antenatal care with an internet-based, computer-generated, randomisation procedure, minimising by age, ethnic origin, centre, BMI, and parity. The intervention was delivered once a week through eight health trainer-led sessions. Primary outcomes were gestational diabetes (diagnosed with an oral glucose tolerance test and by criteria from the International Association of Diabetes in Pregnancy Study Groups) and large-for-gestational-age infants (?90th customised birthweight centile). Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials, ISCRTN89971375. Recruitment and pregnancy outcomes are complete but childhood follow-up is ongoing.FINDINGS: Between March 31, 2009, and June 2, 2014, we assessed 8820 women for eligibility and recruited 1555, with a mean BMI of 36·3 kg/m(2) (SD 4·8). 772 were randomly assigned to standard antenatal care and 783 were allocated the behavioural intervention, of which 651 and 629 women, respectively, completed an oral glucose tolerance test. Gestational diabetes was reported in 172 (26%) women in the standard care group compared with 160 (25%) in the intervention group (risk ratio 0·96, 95% CI 0·79-1·16; p=0·68). 61 (8%) of 751 babies in the standard care group were large for gestational age compared with 71 (9%) of 761 in the intervention group (1·15, 0·83-1·59; p=0·40). Thus, the primary outcomes did not differ between groups, despite improvements in some maternal secondary outcomes in the intervention group, including reduced dietary glycaemic load, gestational weight gain, and maternal sum-of-skinfold thicknesses, and increased physical activity. Adverse events included neonatal death (two in the standard care group and three in the intervention group) and fetal death in utero (ten in the standard care group and six in the intervention group). No maternal deaths were reported. Incidence of miscarriage (2% in the standard care group vs 2% in the intervention group), major obstetric haemorrhage (1% vs 3%), and small-for-gestational-age infants (?5th customised birthweight centile; 6% vs 5%) did not differ between groups.INTERPRETATION: A behavioural intervention addressing diet and physical activity in women with obesity during pregnancy is not adequate to prevent gestational diabetes, or to reduce the incidence of large-for-gestational-age infants.<br/

Determining Contingencies in the Management of Construction Projects

[EN] This research describes the managerial approaches that contractors follow to determine different types of contingencies in construction project management. Two large Spanish general contractors were selected for an in-depth analysis. Interviews and surveys were conducted with six additional companies to explore the external validity of the findings. Managers constrain time and cost buffers through project objectives, applying heuristics to determine inventory buffers. The management of capacity buffers is entrusted to subcontractors. The contractors take advantage of scope and quality buffers to meet project objectives but rarely share these buffers with the owner, unless the owner is an internal client.Ortiz-González, JI.; Pellicer, E.; Molenaar, KR. (2019). Determining Contingencies in the Management of Construction Projects. Project Management Journal. 50(2):226-242. https://doi.org/10.1177/8756972819827389S226242502Adafin, J., Wilkinson, S., Rotimi, J. O. B., & Odeyinka, H. (2014). Accuracy in Design Stage Cost Estimating through Risk-contingency Analysis: A Theoretical Exploration. Construction Research Congress 2014. doi:10.1061/9780784413517.151Ballard, G., & Howell, G. (1998). Shielding Production: Essential Step in Production Control. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 124(1), 11-17. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9364(1998)124:1(11)Barraza, G. A. (2011). Probabilistic Estimation and Allocation of Project Time Contingency. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(4), 259-265. doi:10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0000280Blomquist, T., Hällgren, M., Nilsson, A., & Söderholm, A. (2010). Project-as-Practice: In Search of Project Management Research that Matters. Project Management Journal, 41(1), 5-16. doi:10.1002/pmj.20141Chan, E. H., & Au, M. C. (2009). Factors Influencing Building Contractors’ Pricing for Time-Related Risks in Tenders. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135(3), 135-145. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9364(2009)135:3(135)De la Cruz, M. P., del Caño, A., & de la Cruz, E. (2006). Downside Risks in Construction Projects Developed by the Civil Service: The Case of Spain. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 132(8), 844-852. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9364(2006)132:8(844)Ford, D. N. (2002). Achieving Multiple Project Objectives through Contingency Management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 128(1), 30-39. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9364(2002)128:1(30)González, V., Alarcón, L. F., & Molenaar, K. (2009). Multiobjective design of Work-In-Process buffer for scheduling repetitive building projects. Automation in Construction, 18(2), 95-108. doi:10.1016/j.autcon.2008.05.005Guest, G., Bunce, A., & Johnson, L. (2006). How Many Interviews Are Enough? Field Methods, 18(1), 59-82. doi:10.1177/1525822x05279903Günhan, S., & Arditi, D. (2007). Budgeting Owner’s Construction Contingency. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 133(7), 492-497. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9364(2007)133:7(492)Hällgren, M., & Wilson, T. L. (2008). The nature and management of crises in construction projects: Projects-as-practice observations. International Journal of Project Management, 26(8), 830-838. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.10.005Harbuck R. H. (2004). Competitive bidding for highway construction projects (pp. ES91–ES94). Morgantown, WV: AACE International Transactions.HORMAN, M., & KENLEY, R. (1998). Process Dynamics: Identifying a Strategy for the Deployment of Buffers in Building Projects. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 1(3), 221-237. doi:10.1080/13675569808962049Horman, M. J., & Thomas, H. R. (2005). Role of Inventory Buffers in Construction Labor Performance. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(7), 834-843. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9364(2005)131:7(834)Howell, G., Laufer, A., & Ballard, G. (1993). Interaction between Subcycles: One Key to Improved Methods. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 119(4), 714-728. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9364(1993)119:4(714)Howell, G., Laufer, A., & Ballard, G. (1993). Uncertainty and project objectives. Project Appraisal, 8(1), 37-43. doi:10.1080/02688867.1993.9726884Idrus, A., Fadhil Nuruddin, M., & Rohman, M. A. (2011). Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(3), 1501-1508. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2010.07.061Laryea, S., & Hughes, W. (2011). Risk and Price in the Bidding Process of Contractors. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(4), 248-258. doi:10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0000293Leach, L. (2003). Schedule and Cost Buffer Sizing: How to Account for the Bias between Project Performance and Your Model. Project Management Journal, 34(2), 34-47. doi:10.1177/875697280303400205Lee, S., Peña-Mora, F., & Park, M. (2006). Reliability and Stability Buffering Approach: Focusing on the Issues of Errors and Changes in Concurrent Design and Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 132(5), 452-464. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9364(2006)132:5(452)Oviedo-Haito, R. J., Jiménez, J., Cardoso, F. F., & Pellicer, E. (2014). Survival Factors for Subcontractors in Economic Downturns. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(3), 04013056. doi:10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0000811Pellicer, E., Sanz, M. A., Esmaeili, B., & Molenaar, K. R. (2016). Exploration of Team Integration in Spanish Multifamily Residential Building Construction. Journal of Management in Engineering, 32(5), 05016012. doi:10.1061/(asce)me.1943-5479.0000438Pellicer, E., & Victory, R. (2006). IMPLEMENTATION OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES IN SPANISH RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 10(4), 233-248. doi:10.3846/1648715x.2006.9637555Rooke, J., Seymour, D., & Fellows, R. (2004). Planning for claims: an ethnography of industry culture. Construction Management and Economics, 22(6), 655-662. doi:10.1080/014461904200026324Slauson N. P. (2005). The effectiveness of the construction contract (pp. PM121–PM127). Morgantown, WV: AACE International Transactions.Tah, J. H. M., Thorpe, A., & McCaffer, R. (1993). Contractor project risks contingency allocation using linguistic approximation. Computing Systems in Engineering, 4(2-3), 281-293. doi:10.1016/0956-0521(93)90052-xTaylor, J. E., Dossick, C. S., & Garvin, M. (2011). Meeting the Burden of Proof with Case-Study Research. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(4), 303-311. doi:10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0000283Thal, A. E., Cook, J. J., & White, E. D. (2010). 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Fermi Large Area Telescope Observations of Gamma-ray Pulsars PSR J1057-5226, J1709-4429, and J1952+3252

The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) data have confirmed the pulsed emission from all six high-confidence gamma-ray pulsars previously known from the EGRET observations. We report results obtained from the analysis of 13 months of LAT data for three of these pulsars (PSR J1057-5226, PSR J1709-4429, and PSR J1952+3252) each of which had some unique feature among the EGRET pulsars. The excellent sensitivity of LAT allows more detailed analysis of the evolution of the pulse profile with energy and also of the variation of the spectral shape with phase. We measure the cutoff energy of the pulsed emission from these pulsars for the first time and provide a more complete picture of the emission mechanism. The results confirm some, but not all, of the features seen in the EGRET data.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. 45 pages, 12 figures, 11 tables. Corresponding authors: O. Celik, F. Gargano, T. Reposeur, D.J. Thompso

Detection of the energetic pulsar PSR B1509-58 and its pulsar wind nebula in MSH 15-52 using the Fermi-Large Area Telescope

We report the detection of high energy gamma-ray emission from the young and energetic pulsar PSR B1509$-$58 and its pulsar wind nebula (PWN) in the composite supernova remnant SNR G320.4-1.2 (aka MSH 15-52). Using 1 year of survey data with the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT), we detected pulsations from PSR B1509-58 up to 1 GeV and extended gamma-ray emission above 1 GeV spatially coincident with the PWN. The pulsar light curve presents two peaks offset from the radio peak by phases 0.96 $\pm$ 0.01 and 0.33 $\pm$ 0.02. New constraining upper limits on the pulsar emission are derived below 1 GeV and confirm a severe spectral break at a few tens of MeV. The nebular spectrum in the 1 - 100 GeV energy range is well described by a power-law with a spectral index of (1.57 $\pm$ 0.17 $\pm$ 0.13) and a flux above 1 GeV of (2.91 $\pm$ 0.79 $\pm$ 1.35) 10^{-9} cm^{-2} s^{-1}. The first errors represent the statistical errors on the fit parameters, while the second ones are the systematic uncertainties. The LAT spectrum of the nebula connects nicely with Cherenkov observations, and indicates a spectral break between GeV and TeV energies.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication by Ap

A Multi-Component Model of the Developing Retinocollicular Pathway Incorporating Axonal and Synaptic Growth

During development, neurons extend axons to different brain areas and produce stereotypical patterns of connections. The mechanisms underlying this process have been intensively studied in the visual system, where retinal neurons form retinotopic maps in the thalamus and superior colliculus. The mechanisms active in map formation include molecular guidance cues, trophic factor release, spontaneous neural activity, spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP), synapse creation and retraction, and axon growth, branching and retraction. To investigate how these mechanisms interact, a multi-component model of the developing retinocollicular pathway was produced based on phenomenological approximations of each of these mechanisms. Core assumptions of the model were that the probabilities of axonal branching and synaptic growth are highest where the combined influences of chemoaffinity and trophic factor cues are highest, and that activity-dependent release of trophic factors acts to stabilize synapses. Based on these behaviors, model axons produced morphologically realistic growth patterns and projected to retinotopically correct locations in the colliculus. Findings of the model include that STDP, gradient detection by axonal growth cones and lateral connectivity among collicular neurons were not necessary for refinement, and that the instructive cues for axonal growth appear to be mediated first by molecular guidance and then by neural activity. Although complex, the model appears to be insensitive to variations in how the component developmental mechanisms are implemented. Activity, molecular guidance and the growth and retraction of axons and synapses are common features of neural development, and the findings of this study may have relevance beyond organization in the retinocollicular pathway

Fermi-LAT Search for Pulsar Wind Nebulae around gamma-ray Pulsars

The high sensitivity of the Fermi-LAT (Large Area Telescope) offers the first opportunity to study faint and extended GeV sources such as pulsar wind nebulae (PWNe). After one year of observation the LAT detected and identified three pulsar wind nebulae: the Crab Nebula, Vela-X and the PWN inside MSH 15-52. In the meantime, the list of LAT detected pulsars increased steadily. These pulsars are characterized by high energy loss rates from ~3 \times 10^{33} erg s$^{-1}$ to 5 \times 10$^{38}$ erg s$^{-1}$ and are therefore likely to power a PWN. This paper summarizes the search for PWNe in the off-pulse windows of 54 LAT-detected pulsars using 16 months of survey observations. Ten sources show significant emission, seven of these likely being of magnetospheric origin. The detection of significant emission in the off-pulse interval offers new constraints on the gamma-ray emitting regions in pulsar magnetospheres. The three other sources with significant emission are the Crab Nebula, Vela-X and a new pulsar wind nebula candidate associated with the LAT pulsar PSR J1023-5746, coincident with the TeV source HESS J1023-575. We further explore the association between the H.E.S.S. and the Fermi source by modeling its spectral energy distribution. Flux upper limits derived for the 44 remaining sources are used to provide new constraints on famous PWNe that have been detected at keV and/or TeV energies.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal, 42 pages, 17 figure

Fermi Large Area Telescope Constraints on the Gamma-ray Opacity of the Universe

The Extragalactic Background Light (EBL) includes photons with wavelengths from ultraviolet to infrared, which are effective at attenuating gamma rays with energy above ~10 GeV during propagation from sources at cosmological distances. This results in a redshift- and energy-dependent attenuation of the gamma-ray flux of extragalactic sources such as blazars and Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs). The Large Area Telescope onboard Fermi detects a sample of gamma-ray blazars with redshift up to z~3, and GRBs with redshift up to z~4.3. Using photons above 10 GeV collected by Fermi over more than one year of observations for these sources, we investigate the effect of gamma-ray flux attenuation by the EBL. We place upper limits on the gamma-ray opacity of the Universe at various energies and redshifts, and compare this with predictions from well-known EBL models. We find that an EBL intensity in the optical-ultraviolet wavelengths as great as predicted by the "baseline" model of Stecker et al. (2006) can be ruled out with high confidence.Comment: 42 pages, 12 figures, accepted version (24 Aug.2010) for publication in ApJ; Contact authors: A. Bouvier, A. Chen, S. Raino, S. Razzaque, A. Reimer, L.C. Reye