Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models

Background Temperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought. Methods Here, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth. Results The best-fit model implies that drought is a significant risk factor for African cholera outbreaks, alongside positive effects of population, temperature and poverty and a negative effect of freshwater withdrawal. The projections show that following stringent emissions pathways and expanding sustainable development may reduce cholera outbreak occurrence in Africa, although these changes were spatially heterogeneous. Conclusions Despite an effect of drought in explaining recent cholera outbreaks, future projections highlighted the potential for sustainable development gains to offset drought-related impacts on cholera risk. Future work should build on this research investigating the impacts of drought on cholera on a finer spatial scale and potential non-linear relationships, especially in high-burden countries which saw little cholera change in the scenario analysis

Radio source calibration for the VSA and other CMB instruments at around 30 GHz

Accurate calibration of data is essential for the current generation of CMB experiments. Using data from the Very Small Array (VSA), we describe procedures which will lead to an accuracy of 1 percent or better for experiments such as the VSA and CBI. Particular attention is paid to the stability of the receiver systems, the quality of the site and frequent observations of reference sources. At 30 GHz the careful correction for atmospheric emission and absorption is shown to be essential for achieving 1 percent precision. The sources for which a 1 percent relative flux density calibration was achieved included Cas A, Cyg A, Tau A and NGC7027 and the planets Venus, Jupiter and Saturn. A flux density, or brightness temperature in the case of the planets, was derived at 33 GHz relative to Jupiter which was adopted as the fundamental calibrator. A spectral index at ~30 GHz is given for each. Cas A,Tau A, NGC7027 and Venus were examined for variability. Cas A was found to be decreasing at $0.394 \pm 0.019$ percent per year over the period March 2001 to August 2004. In the same period Tau A was decreasing at $0.22\pm 0.07$ percent per year. A survey of the published data showed that the planetary nebula NGC7027 decreased at $0.16\pm 0.04$ percent per year over the period 1967 to 2003. Venus showed an insignificant ($1.5 \pm 1.3$ percent) variation with Venusian illumination. The integrated polarization of Tau A at 33 GHz was found to be $7.8\pm 0.6$ percent at pa $= 148^\circ \pm 3^\circ$.}Comment: 13 pages, 15 figures, submitted to MNRA

Local industrial strategy and skills policy in England: Assessing the linkages and limitations – a case study of the Sheffield City Deal

This paper examines changes in local economic development policy which occurred between 2010 and 2015, with a focus on the relationship between industrial strategy and skills policy. Under the Coalition Government, Local Enterprise Partnerships were established and tasked with facilitating local growth, and to do so many identified a set of (potential) growth sectors for industrial strategy to support. These sectors tended to be drawn from a relatively narrow range of industries which therefore often excluded a large proportion of the local economy. An important focus of the support for growth sectors for many has been through an ambition to influence the local skills system. Skills policy more broadly has been an important dimension of devolution, and a number of City Deals have included elements of skills policy. Echoing previous national policy however, the focus of local concerns with skills under devolution has been framed largely with reference to skills gaps and shortages. While specific skills gaps and shortages can be identified, this paper questions whether this default position is reflected widely, and as such, if a narrow focus on skills supply is a sufficient approach. It is argued that to support local growth across a broad base, greater attention needs to be paid to stimulating employer demand for skills through better integrating industrial and innovation policy with skills policymaking across a wider section of the local economy. To support these arguments we present a case study of the Sheffield City Deal

High sensitivity measurements of the CMB power spectrum with the extended Very Small Array

We present deep Ka-band ($\nu \approx 33$ GHz) observations of the CMB made with the extended Very Small Array (VSA). This configuration produces a naturally weighted synthesized FWHM beamwidth of $\sim 11$ arcmin which covers an $\ell$-range of 300 to 1500. On these scales, foreground extragalactic sources can be a major source of contamination to the CMB anisotropy. This problem has been alleviated by identifying sources at 15 GHz with the Ryle Telescope and then monitoring these sources at 33 GHz using a single baseline interferometer co-located with the VSA. Sources with flux densities \gtsim 20 mJy at 33 GHz are subtracted from the data. In addition, we calculate a statistical correction for the small residual contribution from weaker sources that are below the detection limit of the survey. The CMB power spectrum corrected for Galactic foregrounds and extragalactic point sources is presented. A total $\ell$-range of 150-1500 is achieved by combining the complete extended array data with earlier VSA data in a compact configuration. Our resolution of $\Delta \ell \approx 60$ allows the first 3 acoustic peaks to be clearly delineated. The is achieved by using mosaiced observations in 7 regions covering a total area of 82 sq. degrees. There is good agreement with WMAP data up to $\ell=700$ where WMAP data run out of resolution. For higher $\ell$-values out to $\ell = 1500$, the agreement in power spectrum amplitudes with other experiments is also very good despite differences in frequency and observing technique.Comment: 16 pages. Accepted in MNRAS (minor revisions

The Dementia Care Study (D-Care): Recruitment Strategies and Demographic Characteristics of Participants in a Pragmatic Randomized Trial of Dementia Care

INTRODUCTION: Pragmatic research studies that include diverse dyads of persons living with dementia (PLWD) and their family caregivers are rare. METHODS: Community-dwelling dyads were recruited for a pragmatic clinical trial evaluating three approaches to dementia care. Four clinical trial sites used shared and site-specific recruitment strategies to enroll health system patients. RESULTS: Electronic health record (EHR) queries of patients with a diagnosis of dementia and engagement of their clinicians were the main recruitment strategies. A total of 2176 dyads were enrolled, with 80% recruited after the onset of the pandemic. PLWD had a mean age of 80.6 years (SD 8.5), 58.4% were women, and 8.8% were Hispanic/Latino, and 11.9% were Black/African American. Caregivers were mostly children of the PLWD (46.5%) or spouses/partners (45.2%), 75.8% were women, 9.4% were Hispanic/Latino, and 11.6% were Black/African American. DISCUSSION: Health systems can successfully enroll diverse dyads in a pragmatic clinical trial

The geography of wage inequality in British cities

There is widespread concern about the scale and implications of urban inequality in Great Britain, but little evidence on which cities are the most unequal and why. This paper investigates patterns of wage inequality in 60 British cities. It has two principal goals: (1) to describe which cities are most unequal and (2) to assess the important determinants of inequality. The results show a distinct geography of wage inequality, the most unequal cities tend to be affluent and located in parts of the Greater South East of England. A central determinant of these patterns is the geography of highly skilled workers. Because of this, the geography of urban wage inequality reflects the geography of affluence more generally

Clinical realism: a new literary genre and a potential tool for encouraging empathy in medical students

Background: Empathy has been re-discovered as a desirable quality in doctors. A number of approaches using the medical humanities have been advocated to teach empathy to medical students. This paper describes a new approach using the medium of creative writing and a new narrative genre: clinical realism. Methods: Third year students were offered a four week long Student Selected Component (SSC) in Narrative Medicine and Creative Writing. The creative writing element included researching and creating a character with a life-changing physical disorder without making the disorder the focus of the writing. The age, gender, social circumstances and physical disorder of a character were randomly allocated to each student. The students wrote repeated assignments in the first person, writing as their character and including details of living with the disorder in all of their narratives. This article is based on the work produced by the 2013 cohort of students taking the course, and on their reflections on the process of creating their characters. Their output was analysed thematically using a constructivist approach to meaning making. Results: This preliminary analysis suggests that the students created convincing and detailed narratives which included rich information about living with a chronic disorder. Although the writing assignments were generic, they introduced a number of themes relating to illness, including stigma, personal identity and narrative wreckage. Some students reported that they found it difficult to relate to “their” character initially, but their empathy for the character increased as the SSC progressed. Conclusion: Clinical realism combined with repeated writing exercises about the same character is a potential tool for helping to develop empathy in medical students and merits further investigation

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factors for febrile neutropenia prophylaxis following chemotherapy: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Febrile neutropenia (FN) occurs following myelosuppressive chemotherapy and is associated with morbidity, mortality, costs, and chemotherapy reductions and delays. Granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs) stimulate neutrophil production and may reduce FN incidence when given prophylactically following chemotherapy. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis assessed the effectiveness of G-CSFs (pegfilgrastim, filgrastim or lenograstim) in reducing FN incidence in adults undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumours or lymphoma. G-CSFs were compared with no primary G-CSF prophylaxis and with one another. Nine databases were searched in December 2009. Meta-analysis used a random effects model due to heterogeneity. Results: Twenty studies compared primary G-CSF prophylaxis with no primary G-CSF prophylaxis: five studies of pegfilgrastim; ten of filgrastim; and five of lenograstim. All three G-CSFs significantly reduced FN incidence, with relative risks of 0.30 (95% CI: 0.14 to 0.65) for pegfilgrastim, 0.57 (95% CI: 0.48 to 0.69) for filgrastim, and 0.62 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.88) for lenograstim. Overall, the relative risk of FN for any primary G-CSF prophylaxis versus no primary G-CSF prophylaxis was 0.51 (95% CI: 0.41 to 0.62). In terms of comparisons between different G-CSFs, five studies compared pegfilgrastim with filgrastim. FN incidence was significantly lower for pegfilgrastim than filgrastim, with a relative risk of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.98). Conclusions: Primary prophylaxis with G-CSFs significantly reduces FN incidence in adults undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumours or lymphoma. Pegfilgrastim reduces FN incidence to a significantly greater extent than filgrastim

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Insights into hominid evolution from the gorilla genome sequence.

Gorillas are humans' closest living relatives after chimpanzees, and are of comparable importance for the study of human origins and evolution. Here we present the assembly and analysis of a genome sequence for the western lowland gorilla, and compare the whole genomes of all extant great ape genera. We propose a synthesis of genetic and fossil evidence consistent with placing the human-chimpanzee and human-chimpanzee-gorilla speciation events at approximately 6 and 10 million years ago. In 30% of the genome, gorilla is closer to human or chimpanzee than the latter are to each other; this is rarer around coding genes, indicating pervasive selection throughout great ape evolution, and has functional consequences in gene expression. A comparison of protein coding genes reveals approximately 500 genes showing accelerated evolution on each of the gorilla, human and chimpanzee lineages, and evidence for parallel acceleration, particularly of genes involved in hearing. We also compare the western and eastern gorilla species, estimating an average sequence divergence time 1.75 million years ago, but with evidence for more recent genetic exchange and a population bottleneck in the eastern species. The use of the genome sequence in these and future analyses will promote a deeper understanding of great ape biology and evolution