Identification of Counterfactuals and Payoffs in Dynamic Discrete Choice with an Application to Land Use

Dynamic discrete choice models are non-parametrically not identified without restrictions on payoff functions, yet counterfactuals may be identified even when payoffs are not. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the identification of a wide range of counterfactuals for models with nonparametric payoffs, as well as for commonly used parametric functions, and we obtain both positive and negative results. We show that access to extra data of asset resale prices (when applicable) can solve non-identifiability of both payoffs and counterfactuals. The theoretical findings are illustrated empirically in the context of agricultural land use. First, we provide identification results for models with unobserved market-level state variables. Then, using a unique spatial dataset of land use choices and land resale prices, we estimate the model and investigate two policy counterfactuals: long run land use elasticity (identified) and a fertilizer tax (not identified, affected dramatically by restrictions)

Partial Identification and Inference for Dynamic Models and Counterfactuals

We provide a general framework for investigating partial identification of structural dynamic discrete choice models and their counterfactuals, along with uniformly valid inference procedures. In doing so, we derive sharp bounds for the model parameters, counterfactual behavior, and low-dimensional outcomes of interest, such as the average welfare effects of hypothetical policy interventions. We characterize the properties of the sets analytically and show that when the target outcome of interest is a scalar, its identified set is an interval whose endpoints can be calculated by solving well-behaved constrained optimization problems via standard algorithms. We obtain a uniformly valid inference procedure by an appropriate application of subsampling. To illustrate the performance and computational feasibility of the method, we consider both a Monte Carlo study of firm entry/exit, and an empirical model of export decisions applied to plant-level data from Colombian manufacturing industries. In these applications, we demonstrate how the identified sets shrink as we incorporate alternative model restrictions, providing intuition regarding the source and strength of identification

All These Worlds are Yours, Except India: The Effectiveness of Cash Subsidies to Export in Nepal

This paper studies the impact of a `textbook' ad-valorem export subsidy on firm-level export performance. The Cash Incentive Scheme for Exports (CISE) program offered by the government of Nepal offers a cash subsidy to firms exporting a select group of products to countries other than India. Using customs transactions data combined with subsidy disbursements at the firm level from 2011 to 2014, we estimate the impact of the subsidy on exports of targeted and non-target product-destination combinations and their extensive and intensive margins. We employ a range of doubly-robust matching estimators to control for the non-random selection of exporters into the scheme. We find that subsidized firms increased their exports of targeted product-destinations relative to firms in the control group and that this rise is fully accounted for by the extensive margin: a higher number of targeted products exported and foreign markets served. We do not find any significant changes along the intensive margin nor among non-targeted product-destination combinations. While our results show that the CISE scheme fomented export diversification, its limited impact on total exports and high fiscal cost call into question its effectiveness

Income Uncertainty and the Decision to Invest in Bulk Shipping

We develop a coherent framework for the valuation of real assets and determination of the optimal time to invest. To this end, we model the stochastic nature of income and develop methodologies for valuing traded derivatives to facilitate model calibration and for assessing real investment projects. A valuation paradigm for freight-linked assets is presented and the effects of uncertainty in the key parameters are examined by means of a sensitivity analysis. Using a real option approach, we demonstrate its usefulness in investment appraisal and optimal timing of entry. We accompany our theoretical results with illustrative examples from the shipping industry

Flexibility premium of emissions permits

Investments in abatement technology are often characterised by irreversibility and significant implementation lags, whereas emissions permits can be traded at any time. As such, abatement and emissions permit trading systems are hardly perfect substitutes. We formally study the flexibility of emissions permits and propose a unified framework to rationalise the impact of both investment/divestment lags and irreversibility in relation to the price of emissions permits. Using option pricing concepts, we reformulate the technology adoption problem in terms of the technology’s characteristics (irreversibility and implementation lags) and offer a conceptual quantification of the flexibility premium of emissions permits

Corporate Cash Holdings in the Shipping Industry

We examine the corporate cash holdings of listed shipping companies and show that shipping firms hold more cash than similar firms in other asset-heavy industries. Higher cash holdings in the shipping industry are not attributable to firm- or country-level characteristics, but rather to the higher marginal value of cash. Shipping firms value an additional dollar of cash higher than matched manufacturing firms, regardless of their financial constraints status, but depending on their cultural background and the cyclicality of their expansion opportunities. Less procyclical shipping firms have a higher marginal value of cash, and this valuation effect is most pronounced in bad times of the business cycle when external capital supply tends to becomescarce.Overall, it appears that shipping companies are more conservative than their peers in managing their cash positions

Investor Sentiment for Real Assets: The Case of Dry Bulk Shipping Market*

We investigate the role of sentiment and its implications for real assets. Using shipping sentiment proxies that capture market expectations, valuation, and liquidity, we construct sentiment indices for the dry bulk shipping market. Evidence suggests that sentiment affects the monthly returns of real assets. The empirical findings also show that market sentiment serves as a contrarian indicator for future cycle phases in all sectors. Furthermore, a sentiment-based trading simulation exercise on the sale and purchase of vessels shows that investors can benefit from higher returns compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark, while partially offsetting the highly volatile nature of the shipping industry

A survey of shipping finance research: setting the future research agenda

Financing shipping related investment projects has always been a focal area of debate and research within the international maritime industry since access to funding can determine the competitiveness of a capital-intensive business as well as its success or failure under adverse market conditions. This paper provides, for the first time, a comprehensive and structured survey of all published research in the area of shipping finance and investment. The review spans approximately four decades (1979-2018) of empirical evidence, including 162 studies published in 48 scholarly journals, complemented with select books and book chapters. The study provides a bibliometric analysis and comprehensive synthesis of existing research offering an invaluable source of information for both the academic community and business practice, shaping the future research agenda in shipping finance and investment

Time to build and fluctuations in bulk shipping

This paper explores the nature of fluctuations in world bulk shipping by quantifying the impact of time to build and demand uncertainty on investment and prices. We examine the impact of both construction lags and their lengthening in periods of high investment activity, by constructing a dynamic model of ship entry and exit. A rich dataset of secondhand ship sales allows for a new estimation strategy: resale prices provide direct information on value functions and allow their nonparametric estimation. We find that moving from time-varying to constant to no time to build reduces prices, while significantly increasing both the level and volatility of investment. Copyright © 2014 by the American Economic Association

Detection and Impact of Industrial Subsidies: The Case of World Shipbuilding

This paper provides a model-based empirical strategy to, (i) detect the presence and gauge the magnitude of government subsidies and (ii) quantify their impact on production reallocation across countries, industry prices, costs and consumer surplus. I construct and estimate an industry model that allows for dynamic agents in both demand and supply and apply my strategy to world shipbuilding, a classic target of industrial policy. I find strong evidence consistent with China having intervened and reducing shipyard costs by 13-20%, corresponding to 1:5 to 4:5 billion US dollars, between 2006 and 2012. The subsidies led to substantial reallocation of ship production across the world, with Japan, in particular, losing significant market share. They also misaligned costs and production, while leading to minor surplus gains for shippers.Economic