Assessing the risks and uncertainties of regional crop potential under a changing climate in Finland

Results are presented of a modelling study to estimate the regional suitability and potential productivity of selected crops in Finland under a changing climate. Model simulations were conducted across a regular 10 km grid over Finland for various cultivars of the following crops: spring wheat, barley, oats, potato and maize, and for two nematode pests and a fungal disease of potato. Models were run for both the present-day (1961-1990) climate and scenarios of future climate. Results are presented as maps. The main findings of the study are: (1) A warming of the climate induces shifts in the northern limit of cereal suitability of some 100-150 km per °C. (2) Changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration by 2050 are estimated to enhance average grain yields of present-day barley cultivars in all regions. (3) Under projected warming, the potential distribution of nematode species expands northwards and additional generations of some species are likely. The risk of late blight occurrence increases in all regions. (4) By 2050 grain maize could be cultivated reliably in favourable regions of southern Finland, and satisfactory yields obtained. (5) Uncertainties surround all estimates, including uncertainties in projections of future climate, model errors and assumptions and observational errors

Assessing the risks and uncertainties of regional crop potential under a changing climate in Finland

Results are presented of a modelling study to estimate the regional suitability and potential productivity of selected crops in Finland under a changing climate. Model simulations were conducted across a regular 10 km grid over Finland for various cultivars of the following crops: spring wheat, barley, oats, potato and maize, and for two nematode pests and a fungal disease of potato. Models were run for both the present-day (1961-1990) climate and scenarios of future climate. Results are presented as maps. The main findings of the study are: (1) A warming of the climate induces shifts in the northern limit of cereal suitability of some 100-150 km per °C. (2) Changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration by 2050 are estimated to enhance average grain yields of present-day barley cultivars in all regions. (3) Under projected warming, the potential distribution of nematode species expands northwards and additional generations of some species are likely. The risk of late blight occurrence increases in all regions. (4) By 2050 grain maize could be cultivated reliably in favourable regions of southern Finland, and satisfactory yields obtained. (5) Uncertainties surround all estimates, including uncertainties in projections of future climate, model errors and assumptions and observational errors

Identification of Critical Amino Acids in an Immunodominant IgE Epitope of Pen c 13, a Major Allergen from Penicillium citrinum

Background: Pen c 13, identified as a 33-kDa alkaline serine protease, is a major allergen secreted by Penicillium citrinum. Detailed knowledge about the epitopes responsible for IgE binding would help inform the diagnosis/prognosis of fungal allergy and facilitate the rational design of hypoallergenic candidate vaccines. The goal of the present study was to characterize the IgE epitopes of Pen c 13. Methodology/Principal Findings: Serum samples were collected from 10 patients with mold allergy and positive Pen c 13 skin test results. IgE-binding epitopes on rPen c 13 were mapped using an enzymatic digestion and chemical cleavage method, followed by dot-blotting and mass spectrometry. A B-cell epitope-predicting server and molecular modeling were used to predict the residues most likely involved in IgE binding. Theoretically predicted IgE-binding regions were further confirmed by site-directed mutagenesis assays. At least twelve different IgE-binding epitopes located throughout Pen c 13 were identified. Of these, peptides S16 (A 148 –E 166) and S22 (A 243 –K 274) were recognized by sera from 90 % and 100 % of the patients tested, and were further confirmed by inhibition assays. Peptide S22 was selected for further analysis of IgE-binding ability. The results of serum screening showed that the majority of IgE-binding ability resided in the C-terminus. One Pen c 13 mutant, G270A (T 261 –K 274), exhibited clearly enhanced IgE reactivity, whereas another, K274A, exhibited dramatically reduced IgE reactivity

CANDELS: The Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey - The Hubble Space Telescope Observations, Imaging Data Products and Mosaics

This paper describes the Hubble Space Telescope imaging data products and data reduction procedures for the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS). This survey is designed to document the evolution of galaxies and black holes at $z\sim1.5-8$, and to study Type Ia SNe beyond $z>1.5$. Five premier multi-wavelength sky regions are selected, each with extensive multiwavelength observations. The primary CANDELS data consist of imaging obtained in the Wide Field Camera 3 / infrared channel (WFC3/IR) and UVIS channel, along with the Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS). The CANDELS/Deep survey covers \sim125 square arcminutes within GOODS-N and GOODS-S, while the remainder consists of the CANDELS/Wide survey, achieving a total of \sim800 square arcminutes across GOODS and three additional fields (EGS, COSMOS, and UDS). We summarize the observational aspects of the survey as motivated by the scientific goals and present a detailed description of the data reduction procedures and products from the survey. Our data reduction methods utilize the most up to date calibration files and image combination procedures. We have paid special attention to correcting a range of instrumental effects, including CTE degradation for ACS, removal of electronic bias-striping present in ACS data after SM4, and persistence effects and other artifacts in WFC3/IR. For each field, we release mosaics for individual epochs and eventual mosaics containing data from all epochs combined, to facilitate photometric variability studies and the deepest possible photometry. A more detailed overview of the science goals and observational design of the survey are presented in a companion paper.Comment: 39 pages, 25 figure

CANDELS: The Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey

The Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS) is designed to document the first third of galactic evolution, over the approximate redshift (z) range 8--1.5. It will image >250,000 distant galaxies using three separate cameras on the Hubble Space Telescope, from the mid-ultraviolet to the near-infrared, and will find and measure Type Ia supernovae at z>1.5 to test their accuracy as standardizable candles for cosmology. Five premier multi-wavelength sky regions are selected, each with extensive ancillary data. The use of five widely separated fields mitigates cosmic variance and yields statistically robust and complete samples of galaxies down to a stellar mass of 10^9 M_\odot to z \approx 2, reaching the knee of the ultraviolet luminosity function (UVLF) of galaxies to z \approx 8. The survey covers approximately 800 arcmin^2 and is divided into two parts. The CANDELS/Deep survey (5\sigma\ point-source limit H=27.7 mag) covers \sim 125 arcmin^2 within GOODS-N and GOODS-S. The CANDELS/Wide survey includes GOODS and three additional fields (EGS, COSMOS, and UDS) and covers the full area to a 5\sigma\ point-source limit of H \gtrsim 27.0 mag. Together with the Hubble Ultra Deep Fields, the strategy creates a three-tiered "wedding cake" approach that has proven efficient for extragalactic surveys. Data from the survey are nonproprietary and are useful for a wide variety of science investigations. In this paper, we describe the basic motivations for the survey, the CANDELS team science goals and the resulting observational requirements, the field selection and geometry, and the observing design. The Hubble data processing and products are described in a companion paper.Comment: Submitted to Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series; Revised version, subsequent to referee repor

SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity are associated with genetic variants affecting gene expression in a variety of tissues

Variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity between individuals is partly due to genetic factors. Here, we identify 4 genomic loci with suggestive associations for SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and 19 for COVID-19 disease severity. Four of these 23 loci likely have an ethnicity-specific component. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) signals in 11 loci colocalize with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) associated with the expression of 20 genes in 62 tissues/cell types (range: 1:43 tissues/gene), including lung, brain, heart, muscle, and skin as well as the digestive system and immune system. We perform genetic fine mapping to compute 99% credible SNP sets, which identify 10 GWAS loci that have eight or fewer SNPs in the credible set, including three loci with one single likely causal SNP. Our study suggests that the diverse symptoms and disease severity of COVID-19 observed between individuals is associated with variants across the genome, affecting gene expression levels in a wide variety of tissue types

The contribution of X-linked coding variation to severe developmental disorders

Abstract: Over 130 X-linked genes have been robustly associated with developmental disorders, and X-linked causes have been hypothesised to underlie the higher developmental disorder rates in males. Here, we evaluate the burden of X-linked coding variation in 11,044 developmental disorder patients, and find a similar rate of X-linked causes in males and females (6.0% and 6.9%, respectively), indicating that such variants do not account for the 1.4-fold male bias. We develop an improved strategy to detect X-linked developmental disorders and identify 23 significant genes, all of which were previously known, consistent with our inference that the vast majority of the X-linked burden is in known developmental disorder-associated genes. Importantly, we estimate that, in male probands, only 13% of inherited rare missense variants in known developmental disorder-associated genes are likely to be pathogenic. Our results demonstrate that statistical analysis of large datasets can refine our understanding of modes of inheritance for individual X-linked disorders

A first update on mapping the human genetic architecture of COVID-19

peer reviewe

Assessing the risks and uncertainties of regional crop potential under changing climate in Finland

Selostus: Arviointi Suomen kasvintuotantopotentiaalin alueellisista riskeistä ja epävarmuuksista ilmaston muuttuess

Arviointi Suomen kasvintuotantopotentiaalin alueellisista riskeistä ja epävarmuuksista ilmaston muuttuessa

Results are presented of a modelling study to estimate the regional suitability and potential productivity of selected crops in Finland under a changing climate. Model simulations were conducted across a regular 10 km grid over Finland for various cultivars of the following crops: spring wheat, barley, oats, potato and maize, and for two nematode pests and a fungal disease of potato. Models were run for both the present-day (1961-1990) climate and scenarios of future climate. Results are presented as maps. The main findings of the study are: (1) A warming of the climate induces shifts in the northern limit of cereal suitability of some 100-150 km per °C. (2) Changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration by 2050 are estimated to enhance average grain yields of present-day barley cultivars in all regions. (3) Under projected warming, the potential distribution of nematode species expands northwards and additional generations of some species are likely. The risk of late blight occurrence increases in all regions. (4) By 2050 grain maize could be cultivated reliably in favourable regions of southern Finland, and satisfactory yields obtained. (5) Uncertainties surround all estimates, including uncertainties in projections of future climate, model errors and assumptions and observational errors.Tutkimus selvitti muutamien kasvien alueellista viljelysopivuutta ja potentiaalista sadontuottoa ilmaston muuttuessa Suomessa. Matemaattisia malleja sovellettiin koko Suomen kattavassa 10 km hilapisteverkossa. Mallien avulla tarkasteltiin erilaisten kevätvehnä-, ohra-, kaura-, peruna- ja maissilajikkeiden kehitystä ja kasvua. Lisäksi selvitettiin perunaruton ja perunan kahden tuhoeläimen, peruna-ankeroisen ja juuren äkämäankeroisen esiintymisriskiä. Tarkastelu tehtiin sekä vertailukauden ilmasto-oloille (1961- 1990) että tulevaisuuden mahdollisille ilmasto-oloille eli skenaarioille, jotka kehitettiin osana Suomalaisen ilmakehänmuutosten tutkimusohjelmaa SILMUa. Tutkimustulokset on esitetty karttoina, joiden tärkeimmät johtopäätökset ovat: (1) Ilmaston lämmetessä viljojen viljelysopivuuden pohjoisraja siirtyy noin 100-150 km pohjoisemmaksi jokaista yhden asteen vuosikeskilämpötilan nousua kohti. (2) Ilmastonmuutoksesta ja ilman hiilidioksidipitoisuuden kohoamisesta johtuen nykyisin viljeltyjen ohralajikkeiden sadot kasvaisivat koko Suomessa vuoteen 2050 mennessä. (3) Arvioitu ilmaston lämpeneminen siirtää ankeroislajien potentiaalisia esiintymisrajoja pohjoiseen sekä lisää sukupolvien määrää, joita juuren äkämäankeroinen kykenisi vuodessa tuottamaan. Perunan viljelyssä myös ruttoepidemioiden riski lisääntyy- (4) Vuoteen 2050 mennessä maissin viljelyvarmuus olisi parantunut niin, että Etelä-Suomen edullisimmilla alueilla jyväsadot olisivat tyydyttäviä. (5) Esitetyt arviot kasvintuotantopotentiaalista ovat epävarmoja, mikä johtuu ilmastoskenaarioista, mallien virheistä ja epätarkkuuksista, oletuksista ja havaintovirheistä