Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the application of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems

A Bayesian network model was developed to assess the combined influence of nutrient conditions and climate on the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms within lakes of diverse hydrology and nutrient supply. Physicochemical, biological, and meteorological observations were collated from 20 lakes located at different latitudes and characterized by a range of sizes and trophic states. Using these data, we built a Bayesian network to (1) analyze the sensitivity of cyanobacterial bloom development to different environmental factors and (2) determine the probability that cyanobacterial blooms would occur. Blooms were classified in three categories of hazard (low, moderate, and high) based on cell abundances. The most important factors determining cyanobacterial bloom occurrence were water temperature, nutrient availability, and the ratio of mixing depth to euphotic depth. The probability of cyanobacterial blooms was evaluated under different combinations of total phosphorus and water temperature. The Bayesian network was then applied to quantify the probability of blooms under a future climate warming scenario. The probability of the "high hazardous" category of cyanobacterial blooms increased 5% in response to either an increase in water temperature of 0.8°C (initial water temperature above 24°C) or an increase in total phosphorus from 0.01 mg/L to 0.02 mg/L. Mesotrophic lakes were particularly vulnerable to warming. Reducing nutrient concentrations counteracts the increased cyanobacterial risk associated with higher temperatures

Environmental flow requirements of estuaries: providing resilience to current and future climate and direct anthropogenic changes

Estuaries host unique biodiversity and deliver a range of ecosystem services at the interface between catchment and the ocean. They are also among the most degraded ecosystems on Earth. Freshwater flow regimes drive ecological processes contributing to their biodiversity and economic value, but have been modified extensively in many systems by upstream water use. Knowledge of freshwater flow requirements for estuaries (environmental flows or E-flows) lags behind that of rivers and their floodplains. Generalising estuarine E-flows is further complicated by responses that appear to be specific to each system. Here we critically review the E-flow requirements of estuaries to 1) identify the key ecosystem processes (hydrodynamics, salinity regulation, sediment dynamics, nutrient cycling and trophic transfer, and connectivity) modulated by freshwater flow regimes, 2) identify key drivers (rainfall, runoff, temperature, sea level rise and direct anthropogenic) that generate changes to the magnitude, quality and timing of flows, and 3) propose mitigation strategies (e.g., modification of dam operations and habitat restoration) to buffer against the risks of altered freshwater flows and build resilience to direct and indirect anthropogenic disturbances. These strategies support re-establishment of the natural characteristics of freshwater flow regimes which are foundational to healthy estuarine ecosystems

Impact of a drought on nutrient concentrations in the Lower Lakes (Murray Darling Basin, Australia)

Nutrient concentrations increased in 2 lakes (Lake Alexandrina and Lake Albert) located at the downstream end of the Murray Darling Basin, Australia, as a result of water level drawdown and salinisation associated with a severe drought. Between January 2007 and March 2008 the salinity difference between the inlet and outlets (5 barrages) increased from 0.9 to 21.0 g L-1, resulting primarily from seawater leakage through the barrages. Subsequently, in relatively sheltered areas upstream of the barrages, permanent salinity-derived density stratification developed, leading to the development of an anoxic hypolimnion. This seemingly favoured the regeneration of dissolved nutrients from the sediments, with standing stocks of ammonium and filterable reactive phosphorus increasing by 250 and 142%, respectively. However, the source of leakage water through the barrages also contributed to the increase. While dissolved organic carbon concentrations also increased, this was a result of evapoconcentration because calculated standing stocks changed little during the study period. In the open water areas, vertical density stratification was not evident, but sediment resuspension seemed to increase during the drawdown. Total organic nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations were closely related to light attenuation, suggesting increased resuspension of particulate nutrients during the water level drawdown or increased assimilation of dissolved nutrients by phytoplankton. Overall, sediment resuspension seemed to have had a greater impact on nutrient concentrations in open water areas of Lake Alexandrina and Lake Albert, while saline intrusions were more significant in relatively sheltered areas located close to the lake outlets

The Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON): the evolution of grassroots network science

Nine years later, with over 380 members from 40 countries, and 50 publications to its credit, GLEON is growing at a rapid pace and pushing the boundaries of the practice of network science. GLEON is really three networks: a network of lakes, data, and peopl

A Global lake ecological observatory network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate processbased ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest

Lake-size dependency of wind shear and convection as controls on gas exchange

High-frequency physical observations from 40 temperate lakes were used to examine the relative contributions of wind shear (u*) and convection (w*) to turbulence in the surface mixed layer. Seasonal patterns of u* and w* were dissimilar; u* was often highest in the spring, while w * increased throughout the summer to a maximum in early fall. Convection was a larger mixed-layer turbulence source than wind shear (u */w*-1 for lakes* and w* differ in temporal pattern and magnitude across lakes, both convection and wind shear should be considered in future formulations of lake-air gas exchange, especially for small lakes. © 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.Jordan S. Read, David P. Hamilton, Ankur R. Desai, Kevin C. Rose, Sally MacIntyre, John D. Lenters, Robyn L. Smyth, Paul C. Hanson, Jonathan J. Cole, Peter A. Staehr, James A. Rusak, Donald C. Pierson, Justin D. Brookes, Alo Laas, and Chin H. W

Assessing, quantifying and valuing the ecosystem services of coastal lagoons

The natural conservation of coastal lagoons is important not only for their ecological importance, but also because of the valuable ecosystem services they provide for human welfare and wellbeing. Coastal lagoons are shallow semi-enclosed systems that support important habitats such as wetlands, mangroves, salt-marshes and seagrass meadows, as well as a rich biodiversity. Coastal lagoons are also complex social-ecological systems with ecosystem services that provide livelihoods, wellbeing and welfare to humans. This study assessed, quantified and valued the ecosystem services of 32 coastal lagoons. The main findings of the study are: (i) the definitions of ecosystem services are still not generally accepted; (ii) the quantification of ecosystem services is made in many different ways, using different units; (iii) the evaluation in monetary terms of some ecosystem service is problematic, often relying on non-monetary evaluation methods; (iv) when ecosystem services are valued in monetary terms, this may represent very different human benefits; and, (v) different aspects of climate change, including increasing temperature, sea-level rise and changes in rainfall patterns threaten the valuable ecosystem services of coastal lagoons.DEVOTES project, from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration [308392]; networks and communities of Eurolag; Future Earth Coasts; SCOR; Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (FCT) Investigador Programme [IF/00331/2013]; Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia [UID/MAR/04292/2013]; CESAM by FCT/MEC national funds (PIDDAC) [UID/AMB/50017/2013 - POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007638]; FEDER; European Commission, under the 7th Framework Programme through the collaborative research project LAGOONS [283157]; FCT [SFRH/BPD/107823/2015, SFRH/BPD/91494/2012

The politicisation of science in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia:discussion of ‘Scientific integrity, public policy and water governance’

Many water scientists aim for their work to inform water policy and management, and in pursuit of this objective, they often work alongside government water agencies to ensure their research is relevant, timely and communicated effectively. A paper in this issue, examining 'Science integrity, public policy and water governance in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia’, suggests that a large group of scientists, who work on water management in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) including the Basin Plan, have been subject to possible ‘administrative capture'. Specifically, it is suggested that they have advocated for policies favoured by government agencies with the objective of gaining personal benefit, such as increased research funding. We examine evidence for this claim and conclude that it is not justified. The efforts of scientists working alongside government water agencies appear to have been misinterpreted as possible administrative capture. Although unsubstantiated, this claim does indicate that the science used in basin water planning is increasingly caught up in the politics of water management. We suggest actions to improve science-policy engagement in basin planning, to promote constructive debate over contested views and avoid the over-politicisation of basin science

Relating Urban Biodiversity to Human Health With the ‘Holobiont’ Concept

A relatively unaccounted ecosystem service from biodiversity is the benefit to human health via symbiotic microbiota from our environment. This benefit occurs because humans evolved alongside microbes and have been constantly exposed to diverse microbiota. Plants and animals, including humans, are organised as a host with symbiotic microbiota, whose collective genome and life history form a single holobiont. As such, there are interdependencies between biodiversity, holobionts, and public health which lead us to argue that human health outcomes could be improved by increasing contact with biodiversity in an urban context. We propose that humans, like all holobionts, likely require a diverse microbial habitat to appropriate resources for living healthy, long lives. We discuss how industrial urbanisation likely disrupts the symbiosis between microbiota and their hosts, leading to negative health outcomes. The industrialised urban habitat is low in macro and microbial biodiversity and discourages contact with beneficial environmental microbiota. These habitat factors, alongside diet, antibiotics, and others, are associated with the epidemic of non-communicable diseases in these societies. We suggest that restoration of urban microbial biodiversity and micro-ecological processes through microbiome rewilding can benefit holobiont health and aid in treating the urban non-communicable disease epidemic. Further, we identify research gaps and some solutions to economic and strategic hurdles in applying microbiome rewilding into daily urban life