Sequential design of computer experiments for the estimation of a probability of failure

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the volume of the excursion set of a function $f:\mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}$ above a given threshold, under a probability measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$ that is assumed to be known. In the industrial world, this corresponds to the problem of estimating a probability of failure of a system. When only an expensive-to-simulate model of the system is available, the budget for simulations is usually severely limited and therefore classical Monte Carlo methods ought to be avoided. One of the main contributions of this article is to derive SUR (stepwise uncertainty reduction) strategies from a Bayesian-theoretic formulation of the problem of estimating a probability of failure. These sequential strategies use a Gaussian process model of $f$ and aim at performing evaluations of $f$ as efficiently as possible to infer the value of the probability of failure. We compare these strategies to other strategies also based on a Gaussian process model for estimating a probability of failure.Comment: This is an author-generated postprint version. The published version is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Inhibition of PTP1B Restores IRS1-Mediated Hepatic Insulin Signaling in IRS2-Deficient Mice

[Objective]: Mice with complete deletion of insulin receptor substrate 2 (IRS2) develop hyperglycaemia, impaired hepatic insulin signaling and elevated gluconeogenesis, whereas mice deficient for protein tyrosine phosphatase (PTP) 1B display an opposing hepatic phenotype characterized by increased sensitivity to insulin. To define the relationship between these two signaling pathways in the regulation of liver metabolism, we used genetic and pharmacological approaches to study the effects of inhibiting PTP1B on hepatic insulin signaling and expression of gluconeogenic enzymes in IRS2−/− deficient mice. [Research design and methods]: We analyzed glucose homeostasis and insulin signaling in liver and isolated hepatocytes from IRS2−/− and IRS2−/−/PTP1B−/−. Additionally, hepatic insulin signaling was assessed in control and IRS2−/− mice treated with resveratrol, an anti-oxidant present in red wine. [Results]: In livers of hyperglycaemic IRS2−/− mice, the expression levels of PTP1B and its association with the insulin receptor (IR) were increased. The absence of PTP1B in the double mutant mice restored hepatic IRS1-mediated phosphatidylinositol (PI) 3-kinase/Akt/Foxo1 signaling. Moreover, resveratrol treatment of hyperglycaemic IRS2−/− mice decreased hepatic PTP1B mRNA and inhibited PTP1B activity, thereby restoring IRS1-mediated PI 3-kinase/Akt/Foxo1 signaling and peripheral insulin sensitivity. [Conclusions]: By regulating the phosphorylation state of IR, PTB1B determines sensitivity to insulin in liver and exerts a unique role in the interplay between IRS1 and IRS2 in the modulation of hepatic insulin action.This work was supported by Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación Grants (Spain) BFU2008-02420, SAF2009- 08114 (to A.M.V.), BFU2008-04901-C03-03 (to M.R.), BFU2005-00084, and SAF2008-00011 (to D.J.B.) and the Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Diabetes y Enfermedades Metabólicas Asociadas (CIBERDEM) (Instituto Salud Carlos III). A.G.-R. holds a postdoctoral contract from CIBERDEM.Peer reviewe

Dissecting the Shared Genetic Architecture of Suicide Attempt, Psychiatric Disorders, and Known Risk Factors

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, and nonfatal suicide attempts, which occur far more frequently, are a major source of disability and social and economic burden. Both have substantial genetic etiology, which is partially shared and partially distinct from that of related psychiatric disorders. Methods We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 29,782 suicide attempt (SA) cases and 519,961 controls in the International Suicide Genetics Consortium (ISGC). The GWAS of SA was conditioned on psychiatric disorders using GWAS summary statistics via multitrait-based conditional and joint analysis, to remove genetic effects on SA mediated by psychiatric disorders. We investigated the shared and divergent genetic architectures of SA, psychiatric disorders, and other known risk factors. Results Two loci reached genome-wide significance for SA: the major histocompatibility complex and an intergenic locus on chromosome 7, the latter of which remained associated with SA after conditioning on psychiatric disorders and replicated in an independent cohort from the Million Veteran Program. This locus has been implicated in risk-taking behavior, smoking, and insomnia. SA showed strong genetic correlation with psychiatric disorders, particularly major depression, and also with smoking, pain, risk-taking behavior, sleep disturbances, lower educational attainment, reproductive traits, lower socioeconomic status, and poorer general health. After conditioning on psychiatric disorders, the genetic correlations between SA and psychiatric disorders decreased, whereas those with nonpsychiatric traits remained largely unchanged. Conclusions Our results identify a risk locus that contributes more strongly to SA than other phenotypes and suggest a shared underlying biology between SA and known risk factors that is not mediated by psychiatric disorders.Peer reviewe

Alcohol-related and alcohol-free activity participation and enjoyment among college students: A behavioral theories of choice analysis.

College student alcohol abuse remains a significant public health problem, and there is a need for theory-driven and empirically based models to guide prevention efforts. Behavioral theories of choice assume that the decision to consume alcohol is influenced by the relative value of alcohol versus other available activities. In the present study, a sample of college student drinkers (N = 108; 56% female, 44% male) who had previously completed a mandatory alcohol intervention completed a measure of alcohol-related and alcohol-free activity participation and enjoyment. The goals of the study were to examine the influence of drinking quantity and contextual variables on activity enjoyment and to identify enjoyable alcohol-free activities that take place on evenings when students might otherwise be drinking. Overall, students found alcohol-related activities more enjoyable than alcohol-free activities, and drinking quantity was positively related to enjoyment. However, alcohol-free activities such as watching movies, going to the theater or museums, going to bars or parties, hanging out with friends, eating at restaurants, and engaging in creative activity were generally as enjoyable as drinking. Alcohol-free activities that included peers or dates were more enjoyable than solitary activities. Men were less likely to engage in alcohol-free activities that included peers and reported less enjoyment related to alcohol-free activities than did women. Further research is required to identify procedures for increasing participation in alcohol-free activities and to determine whether increased alcohol-free activity participation results in decreased alcohol consumption. Copyright 2006 by the American Psychological Association

Second-tier trio exome sequencing after negative solo clinical exome sequencing: an efficient strategy to increase diagnostic yield and decipher molecular bases in undiagnosed developmental disorders

International audienceDevelopmental disorders (DD), characterized by malformations/dysmorphism and/or intellectual disability, affecting around 3% of worldwide population, are mostly linked to genetic anomalies. Despite clinical exome sequencing (cES) centered on genes involved in human genetic disorders, the majority of patients affected by DD remain undiagnosed after solo-cES. Trio-based strategy is expected to facilitate variant selection thanks to rapid parental segregation. We performed a second step trio-ES (not only focusing on genes involved in human disorders) analysis in 70 patients with negative results after solo-cES. All candidate variants were shared with a MatchMaking exchange system to identify additional patients carrying variants in the same genes and with similar phenotype. In 18/70 patients (26%), we confirmed causal implication of nine OMIM-morbid genes and identified nine new strong candidate genes (eight de novo and one compound heterozygous variants). These nine new candidate genes were validated through the identification of patients with similar phenotype and genotype thanks to data sharing. Moreover, 11 genes harbored variants of unknown significance in 10/70 patients (14%). In DD, a second step trio-based ES analysis appears an efficient strategy in diagnostic and translational research to identify highly candidate genes and improve diagnostic yield