Long-term Averages of the Stochastic Logistic Map

The logistic map is a nonlinear difference equation well studied in the literature, used to model self-limiting growth in certain populations. It is known that, under certain regularity conditions, the stochastic logistic map, where the parameter is varied according to a specified distribution, has a unique invariant distribution. In these cases we can compare the long-term behavior of the stochastic system with that of the deterministic system evaluated at the average parameter value. Here we examine the relationship between the mean of the stochastic logistic equation and the mean of orbits of the deterministic logistic equation at the expected value of the parameter. We formally prove that, in some cases, the addition of noise is beneficial to the populations, in the sense that it increases the mean, while for other ranges of parameters it is detrimental. A conjecture based on numerical evidence is presented at the end

First estimates of population size and home range of Caribbean reef and nurse sharks using photo-identification and BRUVS

The assessment of parameters population size and individual home range is important for effective conservation management of sharks. This study uses the novel application of photo identification (photo-ID) to BRUVS footage as a non-invasive alternative to tagging in order to generate individual capture histories. These were used in mark-recapture models to estimate effective population sizes and to determine home ranges. In the Cayman Islands a total of 499 shark sightings of six coastal shark species were recorded on BRUVS from 2015 - 2018, but re-sighting rates were only sufficient for the determination of population parameters for two species - Caribbean reef shark (Carcharhinus perezi) and nurse shark (Ginglymostoma cirratum). The calculated super-population sizes for Caribbean reef shark (180 ± 37 SE) and nurse shark (336 ± 61 SE) were greater than the estimates for each species based on a closed-population model (Caribbean reef shark: 128 ± 40 SE, nurse shark: 249 ± 48 SE), though both measures indicated that there were about twice as many nurse sharks (1.3 - 1.8 sharks/km2) as Caribbean reef sharks (0.7 – 1 shark/km2) within the study area. The demographic compositions included numerous immature individuals, indicating that breeding of both species takes place within the study area of 188 km2. Most recognizable individuals of both species showed linear home ranges of <20 km, but a few individuals were observed to have moved longer distances (Caribbean reef shark: 125.37 km, nurse shark: 156.07 km). The data indicate that the home ranges and long-distance movements of individual sharks observed within the islands’ marine protected areas (MPAs) often extend to areas beyond the MPA’s boundary, potentially exposing them to fishing activities. This study provides the first estimates of population size for Caribbean reef and nurse sharks in the Cayman Islands and the first estimate of a Caribbean reef shark population globally

Weekly observations of online survey metadata obtained through home computer use allow for detection of changes in everyday cognition before transition to mild cognitive impairment

IntroductionSubtle changes in instrumental activities of daily living often accompany the onset of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) but are difficult to measure using conventional tests.MethodsWeekly online survey metadata metrics, annual neuropsychological tests, and an instrumental activity of daily living questionnaire were examined in 110 healthy older adults with intact cognition (mean age = 85 years) followed up for up to 3.6 years; 29 transitioned to MCI during study follow‐up.ResultsIn the baseline period, incident MCI participants completed their weekly surveys 1.4 hours later in the day than stable cognitively intact participants, P = .03, d = 0.47. Significant associations were found between earlier survey start time of day and higher memory (r = −0.34; P < .001) and visuospatial test scores (r = −0.37; P < .0001). Longitudinally, incident MCI participants showed an increase in survey completion time by 3 seconds per month for more than the year before diagnosis compared with stable cognitively intact participants (β = 0.12, SE = 0.04, t = 2.8; P = .006).DiscussionWeekly online survey metadata allowed for detection of changes in everyday cognition before transition to MCI.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/152601/1/alzjjalz201707756.pd

Discovery of the Remarkably Red L/T Transition Object VHS J183135.58-551355.9

We present the discovery of VHS J183135.58$-$551355.9 (hereafter VHS J1831$-$5513), an L/T transition dwarf identified as a result of its unusually red near-infrared colors ($J-K_{\rm S}=3.633\pm0.277$ mag; $J-W2=6.249\pm0.245$ mag) from the VISTA Hemisphere Survey and CatWISE2020 surveys. We obtain low resolution near-infrared spectroscopy of VHS J1831$-$5513 using Magellan/FIRE to confirm its extremely red nature and assess features sensitive to surface gravity (i.e., youth). Its near-infrared spectrum shows multiple CH$_{\rm 4}$ absorption features, indicating an exceptionally low effective temperature for its spectral type. Based on proper motion measurements from CatWISE2020 and a photometric distance derived from its $K_{\rm S}$-band magnitude, we find that VHS J1831$-$5513 is a likely ($\sim$85$\%$ probability) kinematic member of the $\beta$ Pictoris moving group. Future radial velocity and trigonometric parallax measurements will clarify such membership. Follow-up mid-infrared or higher resolution near-infrared spectroscopy of this object will allow for further investigation as to the cause(s) of its redness, such as youth, clouds, and viewing geometry.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures; Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journa

Methane Emission From a Cool Brown Dwarf

© 2024, The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Beyond our solar system, aurorae have been inferred from radio obser- vations of isolated brown dwarfs (e.g. [1]; [2]). Within our solar system, giant planets have auroral emission with signatures across the electromag- netic spectrum including infrared emission of H3+ and methane. Isolated brown dwarfs with auroral signatures in the radio have been searched for corresponding infrared features but have only had null detections (e.g. [3]). CWISEP J193518.59-154620.3. (W1935 for short) is an isolated brown dwarf with a temperature of ∼482 K. Here we report JWST observations of strong methane emission from W1935 at 3.326 microns. Atmospheric mod- eling leads us to conclude that a temperature inversion of ∼300 K centered at 1-10 millibar replicates the feature. This represents an atmospheric tem- perature inversion for a Jupiter-like atmosphere without irradiation from a host star. A plausible explanation for the strong inversion is heating by auroral processes, although other internal and/or external dynamical pro- cesses cannot be ruled out. The best fit model rules out the contribution of H3+ emission which is prominent in solar system gas giants, however this is consistent with rapid destruction of H3+ at the higher pressure where the W1935 emission originates (e.g. [4]).Peer reviewe

Mapping past human land use using archaeological data: A new classification for global land use synthesis and data harmonization

In the 12,000 years preceding the Industrial Revolution, human activities led to significant changes in land cover, plant and animal distributions, surface hydrology, and biochemical cycles. Earth system models suggest that this anthropogenic land cover change influenced regional and global climate. However, the representation of past land use in earth system models is currently oversimplified. As a result, there are large uncertainties in the current understanding of the past and current state of the earth system. In order to improve repre- sentation of the variety and scale of impacts that past land use had on the earth system, a global effort is underway to aggregate and synthesize archaeological and historical evi- dence of land use systems. Here we present a simple, hierarchical classification of land use systems designed to be used with archaeological and historical data at a global scale and a schema of codes that identify land use practices common to a range of systems, both imple- mented in a geospatial database. The classification scheme and database resulted from an extensive process of consultation with researchers worldwide. Our scheme is designed to deliver consistent, empirically robust data for the improvement of land use models, while simultaneously allowing for a comparative, detailed mapping of land use relevant to the needs of historical scholars. To illustrate the benefits of the classification scheme and meth- ods for mapping historical land use, we apply it to Mesopotamia and Arabia at 6 kya (c. 4000 BCE). The scheme will be used to describe land use by the Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k working group, an international project comprised of archaeologists, historians, geographers, paleoecologists, and modelers. Beyond this, the scheme has a wide utility for creating a common language between research and policy communities, link- ing archaeologists with climate modelers, biodiversity conservation workers and initiatives.publishedVersio

Mapping past human land use using archaeological data: A new classification for global land use synthesis and data harmonization.

In the 12,000 years preceding the Industrial Revolution, human activities led to significant changes in land cover, plant and animal distributions, surface hydrology, and biochemical cycles. Earth system models suggest that this anthropogenic land cover change influenced regional and global climate. However, the representation of past land use in earth system models is currently oversimplified. As a result, there are large uncertainties in the current understanding of the past and current state of the earth system. In order to improve representation of the variety and scale of impacts that past land use had on the earth system, a global effort is underway to aggregate and synthesize archaeological and historical evidence of land use systems. Here we present a simple, hierarchical classification of land use systems designed to be used with archaeological and historical data at a global scale and a schema of codes that identify land use practices common to a range of systems, both implemented in a geospatial database. The classification scheme and database resulted from an extensive process of consultation with researchers worldwide. Our scheme is designed to deliver consistent, empirically robust data for the improvement of land use models, while simultaneously allowing for a comparative, detailed mapping of land use relevant to the needs of historical scholars. To illustrate the benefits of the classification scheme and methods for mapping historical land use, we apply it to Mesopotamia and Arabia at 6 kya (c. 4000 BCE). The scheme will be used to describe land use by the Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k working group, an international project comprised of archaeologists, historians, geographers, paleoecologists, and modelers. Beyond this, the scheme has a wide utility for creating a common language between research and policy communities, linking archaeologists with climate modelers, biodiversity conservation workers and initiatives

Mapping past human land use using archaeological data: A new classification for global land use synthesis and data harmonization

In the 12,000 years preceding the Industrial Revolution, human activities led to significant changes in land cover, plant and animal distributions, surface hydrology, and biochemical cycles. Earth system models suggest that this anthropogenic land cover change influenced regional and global climate. However, the representation of past land use in earth system models is currently oversimplified. As a result, there are large uncertainties in the current understanding of the past and current state of the earth system. In order to improve representation of the variety and scale of impacts that past land use had on the earth system, a global effort is underway to aggregate and synthesize archaeological and historical evidence of land use systems. Here we present a simple, hierarchical classification of land use systems designed to be used with archaeological and historical data at a global scale and a schema of codes that identify land use practices common to a range of systems, both implemented in a geospatial database. The classification scheme and database resulted from an extensive process of consultation with researchers worldwide. Our scheme is designed to deliver consistent, empirically robust data for the improvement of land use models, while simultaneously allowing for a comparative, detailed mapping of land use relevant to the needs of historical scholars. To illustrate the benefits of the classification scheme and methods for mapping historical land use, we apply it to Mesopotamia and Arabia at 6 kya (c. 4000 BCE). The scheme will be used to describe land use by the Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k working group, an international project comprised of archaeologists, historians, geographers, paleoecologists, and modelers. Beyond this, the scheme has a wide utility for creating a common language between research and policy communities, linking archaeologists with climate modelers, biodiversity conservation workers and initiatives

The agreement process: an empirical investigation of human-human computer-mediated collaborative dialogs

this paper, we investigate the empirical correlates of the agreement process. Informally, the agreement process is the dialogue process by which collaborators achieve joint commitment on a joint action. We propose a specific instantiation of the agreement process, derived from our theoretical model, that integrates the IRMA framework for rational problem solving (Bratman, Israel, and Pollack 1988) with Clark&apos;s work (1992; 1996) on language as a collaborative activity; and from the characteristics of our task, a simple design problem (furnishing a two room apartment) in which knowledge is equally distributed among agents, and needs to be shared. The main contribution of our paper is an empirical study of some of the components of the agreement process. We first discuss why we believe the findings from our corpus of computer-mediated dialogues are applicable to human-human collaborative dialogues in general. We then present our theoretical model, and apply it to make predictions about the components of the agreement process. We focus on how information is exchanged in order to arrive at a proposal, and on what constitutes a proposal and its acceptance / rejection. Our corpus study makes use of features of both the dialogue and the domain reasoning situation, and led us to discover that the notion of commitment is more useful to model the agreement process than that of acceptance / rejection, as it more closely relates to the unfolding of negotiation