Multiple and more frequent natural hazards : The vulnerability implications for rural West African communities

Rural, subsistence agriculture dependent communities in the West-Sudanian Savannah climate zone are dependent on a single rainy season to produce the crops that they need to sustain themselves for the following year. However, increasing variability in rainfall presents these communities with a considerable challenge, a challenge that is likely to worsen with climate change. Seasonal variability is manifest as local level floods and dry spell droughts. These events disrupt crop growth and impact on other aspects of life such as housing and access to water. Climate change is expected to not only increase the frequency of these events but to also increase the likelihood of floods and droughts occurring in succession, in the same rainy season. Responding to gaps in the application of social vulnerability concepts to multiple hazard scenarios, this research provides an approach to account for the differential impacts and responses towards multiple and more frequent hazard events. The research presents important insights for a future under climate change, particularly highlighting the potentially different outcomes of more frequent hazards compared to multiple (successional) hazard events where the impacts are deeper. Connecting with concepts relating to social-ecological systems and social vulnerability, the research demonstrates how thresholds of change vary based on the nature of hazard events. It finds that more frequent hazard events result in gradual erosions of assets and coping capacity that can lead to rigidity traps. In contrast, the deeper losses incurred by multiple (successional) hazard events is more likely to spark social change, however, these changes are limited by inadequate adaptation options. The findings from this research have been generated through predominantly qualitative analysis and the application of relatively innovative methods, including a participatory game and scenarios. The focus on three case study communities in different West African countries, provides a basis for generating broader conclusions that argue for a concerted effort to address barriers to adaptation and to enhance support for affected communities

Reflections on a key component of co-producing climate services: defining climate metrics from user needs

There is increasing recognition of the importance of co-producing climate services to bridge the current “usability” gap in climate information for decision-making – yet understanding precisely how this should take place is less well elaborated. One key stage of the co-production process involves identifying specifically which climate metrics can usefully inform decisions – but methods that can be drawn upon to construct this information are often overlooked. We discuss how the choice and application of four existing social science methods (interview-informed role play workshop, open-ended interviews, prioritised surveys and enhanced surveys) arose out of, and was in turn embedded within, a different epistemological approach characteristic of co-production to identify decision-relevant climate metrics for the water and agriculture sectors in Malawi and Tanzania. In so doing, we reflect on the evolution of our understanding of co-production as our assumptions were challenged, from the expectation that we would be able to “obtain” metrics from users, to a dynamic mutual definition based on better understanding of the decision-making contexts. Such reflections inform emerging experiences of co-production of climate services, as well as having implications for broader contexts beyond the climate change space in which co-production is attempted to improve science-society interactions

How do staff motivation and workplace environment affect capacity of governments to adapt to climate change in developing countries?

Government ministries are increasingly mainstreaming climate change adaptation within policies and plans. However, government staff in key implementing ministries need to be empowered to ensure effective delivery of policy goals. Motivation to act on climate change, combined with the capacity to make decisions and apply resources to programmes, is crucial. Informed by theories of motivation and workplace environments from social psychology and organisational theory, this paper reports findings from a questionnaire of government staff (103 respondents) in Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia. The questionnaire was designed using self-determination theory to investigate the role of external influences, institutional structures and resources and how these, in turn, affect staff motivation and capacities to design and implement new policies and strategies. The study finds that whilst external influences and hierarchical structures are recognised, these do not have a strong direct influence on staff motivation, but they do appear to inhibit capacities to act. The results show that lack of staff and limited government-allocated budget reduce the ability of ministries to be self-determined and set their own agendas. Instead they are dependent on donor-determined projects which may be selective in the aspects of climate change adaptation plans and policies they support and even divert focus away from government priorities

Evolution of national climate adaptation agendas in Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia: the role of national leadership and international donors

In this paper, we use an inductive approach and longitudinal analysis to explore political influences on the emergence and evolution of climate change adaptation policy and planning at national level, as well as the institutions within which it is embedded, for three countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia). Data collection involved quantitative and qualitative methods applied over a 6-year period from 2012 to 2017. This included a survey of 103 government staff (20 in Malawi, 29 in Tanzania and 54 in Zambia) and 242 interviews (106 in Malawi, 86 in Tanzania and 50 in Zambia) with a wide range of stakeholders, many of whom were interviewed multiple times over the study period, together with content analysis of relevant policy and programme documents. Whilst the climate adaptation agenda emerged in all three countries around 2007–2009, associated with multilateral funding initiatives, the rate and nature of progress has varied—until roughly 2015 when, for different reasons, momentum slowed. We find differences between the countries in terms of specifics of how they operated, but roles of two factors in common emerge in the evolution of the climate change adaptation agendas: national leadership and allied political priorities, and the role of additional funding provided by donors. These influences lead to changes in the policy and institutional frameworks for addressing climate change, as well as in the emphasis placed on climate change adaptation. By examining the different ways through which ideas, power and resources converge and by learning from the specific configurations in the country examples, we identify opportunities to address existing barriers to action and thus present implications that enable more effective adaptation planning in other countries. We show that more socially just and inclusive national climate adaptation planning requires a critical approach to understanding these configurations of power and politics

Re-balancing climate services to inform climate-resilient planning: a conceptual framework and illustrations from sub-Saharan Africa

Making climate-resilient planning and adaptation decisions is, in part, contingent on the use of climate information. Growing attention has been paid to the “usability gap” and the need to make information both useful and useable to decision-makers. Less attention has, however, been paid to the factors that determine whether, once created, useful and useable information is then actually used. In this Perspectives piece, we outline a framework that puts together the pieces necessary to close the “usability gap” – highlighting not only what is required to make information useful and useable, but also what is required to ensure that useful and useable information is actually used. Creating useful information is subject to understanding and being able to deliver metrics that address identified needs in a range of decision-making contexts. Creating useable information is contingent upon having legitimate and credible information that is visualised and communicated in ways that are accessible and understandable. Further use of such information requires supportive institutions, appropriate policy frameworks, capacity of individuals and agency to make decisions. The framework further highlights traditionally under-recognized barriers that prevent effective use of the growing availability of useful and useable climate information in decision-making. Whilst this is not enough in itself to effect information use, we argue that greater focus on these barriers can re-balance the activities promoted through climate services and increase the likelihood of successful use. We illustrate the framework with case examples of co-producing climate information for the tea and water sectors in sub-Saharan Africa

Business experience of floods and drought-related water and electricity supply disruption in three cities in sub-Saharan Africa during the 2015/2016 El Niño

Non-technical summary The El Niño event in 2015/2016 was one of the strongest since at least 1950. Through surveys and interviews with key informants, we find businesses in the capital cities of Zambia, Botswana and Kenya experienced major disruption to their activities from El Niño related hydroelectric load shedding, water supply disruption and flooding, respectively. Yet, during the 2015/2016 El Niño, fluctuations in precipitation were not extreme considering the strength of the El Niño event. Results therefore highlight that even fairly moderate precipitation anomalies can contribute to major disruption to economic activity. Addressing the risk of disruption – and supporting the private sector to adapt – is a development priority. Technical summary Drought during the 2015/2016 El Niño amplified disruption to public water supply in Botswana’s capital Gaborone and contributed to unprecedented hydroelectric load shedding across Zambia. In Kenya, moderate precipitation during the El Niño brought localized floods to Nairobi and other areas. Contributing to a sparse literature on firm-level adaptation among micro, small and medium enterprise (MSMEs) in sub-Saharan Africa, through a near-real time assessment we consider MSME experience of this disruption in sectors making substantial contributions to livelihoods and national GDP. Alongside complex and indirect impact pathways that influence total loss and damage, results show varying vulnerability to disruption. Nevertheless, directly after the El Niño event, MSMEs reported water supply disruption, power outages and flooding to be the leading challenge within the business environment in Botswana, Zambia and Kenya respectively. Deeper understanding of vulnerabilities in existing water, energy and urban infrastructure – in the context of increasing urbanisation and a potentially broader range of climate variability – is urgently needed across SSA. This needs to be coupled with public provision of wider enabling conditions – including access to finance – that support private sector adaptation to extreme climate events and associated resource disruption. This paper also identifies clear opportunities to improve climate information services for MSMEs. Social media summary Flooding and water and electricity supply disruption during the 2015/2016 El Niño disrupted business activity in sub-Saharan Africa

Climate change adaptation and cross-sectoral policy coherence in southern Africa

To be effective, climate change adaptation needs to be mainstreamed across multiple sectors and greater policy coherence is essential. Using the cases of Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia, this paper investigates the extent of coherence in national policies across the water and agriculture sectors and to climate change adaptation goals outlined in national development plans. A two-pronged qualitative approach is applied using Qualitative Document Analysis of relevant policies and plans, combined with expert interviews from non-government actors in each country. Findings show that sector policies have differing degrees of coherence on climate change adaptation, currently being strongest in Zambia and weakest in Tanzania. We also identify that sectoral policies remain more coherent in addressing immediate-term disaster management issues of floods and droughts rather than longer-term strategies for climate adaptation. Coherence between sector and climate policies and strategies is strongest when the latter has been more recently developed. However to date, this has largely been achieved by repackaging of existing sectoral policy statements into climate policies drafted by external consultants to meet international reporting needs and not by the establishment of new connections between national sectoral planning processes. For more effective mainstreaming of climate change adaptation, governments need to actively embrace longer-term cross-sectoral planning through cross-Ministerial structures, such as initiated through Zambia’s Interim Climate Change Secretariat, to foster greater policy coherence and integrated adaptation planning

Climate variability affects water-energy-food infrastructure performance in East Africa

The need to assess major infrastructure performance under a changing climate is widely recognized yet rarely practiced, particularly in rapidly growing African economies. Here, we consider high-stakes investments across the water, energy, and food sectors for two major river basins in a climate transition zone in Africa. We integrate detailed interpretation of observed and modeled climate-system behavior with hydrological modeling and decision-relevant performance metrics. For the Rufiji River in Tanzania, projected risks for the mid-21st century are similar to those of the present day, but for the Lake Malawi-Shire River, future risk exceeds that experienced during the 20th century. In both basins a repeat of an early-20th century multi-year drought would challenge the viability of proposed infrastructure. A long view, which emphasizes past and future changes in variability, set within a broader context of climate-information interpretation and decision making, is crucial for screening the risk to infrastructure

Patterns in recent and Holocene pollen accumulation rates across Europe - the Pollen Monitoring Programme Database as a tool for vegetation reconstruction

The collection of modern, spatially extensive pollen data is important for the interpretation of fossil pollen assemblages and the reconstruction of past vegetation communities in space and time. Modern datasets are readily available for percentage data but lacking for pollen accumulation rates (PARs). Filling this gap has been the motivation of the pollen monitoring network, whose contributors monitored pollen deposition in modified Tauber traps for several years or decades across Europe. Here we present this monitoring dataset consisting of 351 trap locations with a total of 2742 annual samples covering the period from 1981 to 2017. This dataset shows that total PAR is influenced by forest cover and climate parameters, which determine pollen productivity and correlate with latitude. Treeless vegetation produced PAR values of at least 140 grains cm(-2) yr(-1). Tree PAR increased by at least 400 grains cm(-2) yr(-1) with each 10% increase in forest cover. Pollen traps situated beyond 200 km of the distribution of a given tree species still collect occasional pollen grains of that species. The threshold of this long-distance transport differs for individual species and is generally below 60 grains cm(-2) yr(-1). Comparisons between modern and fossil PAR from the same regions show similar values. For temperate taxa, modern analogues for fossil PARs are generally found downslope or southward of the fossil sites. While we do not find modern situations comparable to fossil PAR values of some taxa (e.g. Corylus), CO2 fertilization and land use may cause high modern PARs that are not documented in the fossil record. The modern data are now publicly available in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database and aid interpretations of fossil PAR data

The Eurasian Modern Pollen Database (EMPD), version 2

The Eurasian (nee European) Modern Pollen Database (EMPD) was established in 2013 to provide a public database of high-quality modern pollen surface samples to help support studies of past climate, land cover, and land use using fossil pollen. The EMPD is part of, and complementary to, the European Pollen Database (EPD) which contains data on fossil pollen found in Late Quaternary sedimentary archives throughout the Eurasian region. The EPD is in turn part of the rapidly growing Neotoma database, which is now the primary home for global palaeoecological data. This paper describes version 2 of the EMPD in which the number of samples held in the database has been increased by 60% from 4826 to 8134. Much of the improvement in data coverage has come from northern Asia, and the database has consequently been renamed the Eurasian Modern Pollen Database to reflect this geographical enlargement. The EMPD can be viewed online using a dedicated map-based viewer at https://empd2.github.io and downloaded in a variety of file formats at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.909130 (Chevalier et al., 2019).Peer reviewe