The Thread of Ariadne: A Collection of Essays by the Faculty of the Cooperative Research Center in the Humanities Dominican College of San Rafael

This volume is a Festschrift with a difference: a collection of essays written by colleagues to honor students -- past, present, future -- rather than an aged academic kindred spirit. the end-product of a \u27Great Conversation\u27 which extended over two years (1985-1987), the volume contains ten essays by nine Dominican College faculty members. Each essay has been developed in the context of inter-disciplinary discussions to which specialists in art history, history, literature, and philosophy contributed their knowledge and insights. Lest that statement suggest placid armchair soliloquies. let me quickly add that the discussions were frank and vigorous, and served to focus, refine, and sometimes change altogether the final topics of the essays. ~ from the Introduction by Sister M. Samuel Conlan, O.P.https://scholar.dominican.edu/books/1097/thumbnail.jp

Search for light pseudoscalar sgoldstino in K- decays

A search for the light pseudoscalar sgoldstino production in the three body K- decay K-->pipi0P has been performed with the ISTRA+ detector exposed to the 25 GeV negative secondary beam of the U70 proton synchrotron. No signal is seen. An upper limit for the branching ratio Br(K->pipi0P), at 90% confidence level, is found to be around 9*10**-6 in the effective mass m(P) range from 0 till 200 MeV, excluding the region near m(pi0) where it degrades to 3.5*10**-5.Comment: 10 pages, LATEX, 8 EPS figures, revised version, to be published in Phys.Lett.

A retrospective cohort study of differential attainment, COVID and chaos: taking the difference out of a terrible trinity

Background: This study aimed to evaluate core surgical training (CST) differential attainment related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), gender and ethnicity. The hypothesis was that COVID-19 adversely influenced CST outcomes. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 271 anonymised CST records was undertaken at a UK Statutory Education Body. Primary effect measures were Annual Review of Competency Progression Outcome (ARCPO), Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination pass and Higher Surgical Training National Training Number (NTN) appointment. Data were collected prospectively at ARCP and analysed with non-parametric statistical methods in SPSS. Results: CSTs numbering 138 completed training pre-COVID and 133 peri-COVID. ARCPO 1, 2 and 6 were 71.9% pre-COVID versus 74.4% peri-COVID (P = 0.844). MRCS pass rates were 69.6% pre-COVID versus 71.1% peri-COVID (P = 0.968), but NTN appointment rates diminished (pre-COVID 47.4% vs. peri-COVID 36.9%, P = 0.324); none of the above varied by gender or ethnicity. Multivariable analyses by three models revealed: ARCPO was associated with gender [m:f 1:0.87, odds ratio (OR) 0.53, P = 0.043] and CST theme (Plastics vs. General OR 16.82, P = 0.007); MRCS pass with theme (Plastics vs. General OR 8.97, P = 0.004); NTN with the Improving Surgical Training run-through programme (OR 5.00, P < 0.001). Programme retention improved peri-COVID (OR 0.20, P = 0.014) with pan University Hospital rotations performing better than Mixed or District General-only rotations (OR 6.63, P = 0.018). Conclusion: Differential attainment profiles varied 17-fold, yet COVID-19 did not influence ARCPO or MRCS pass rates. NTN appointment fell by one-fifth peri-COVID, but overall training outcome metrics remained robust despite the existential threat

A new measurement of the Collins and Sivers asymmetries on a transversely polarised deuteron target

New high precision measurements of the Collins and Sivers asymmetries of charged hadrons produced in deep-inelastic scattering of muons on a transversely polarised 6LiD target are presented. The data were taken in 2003 and 2004 with the COMPASS spectrometer using the muon beam of the CERN SPS at 160 GeV/c. Both the Collins and Sivers asymmetries turn out to be compatible with zero, within the present statistical errors, which are more than a factor of 2 smaller than those of the published COMPASS results from the 2002 data. The final results from the 2002, 2003 and 2004 runs are compared with naive expectations and with existing model calculations.Comment: 40 pages, 28 figure

Letter of interest for a neutrino beam from Protvino to KM3NeT/ORCA

The Protvino accelerator facility located in the Moscow region, Russia, is in a good position to offer a rich experimental research program in the field of neutrino physics. Of particular interest is the possibility to direct a neutrino beam from Protvino towards the KM3NeT/ORCA detector, which is currently under construction in the Mediterranean Sea 40 km offshore Toulon, France. This proposal is known as P2O. Thanks to its baseline of 2595 km, this experiment would yield an unparalleled sensitivity to matter effects in the Earth, allowing for the determination of the neutrino mass ordering with a high level of certainty after only a few years of running at a modest beam intensity of ≈ 90 kW. With a prolonged exposure (≈1500 kWyear), a 2σ sensitivity to the leptonic CP-violating Dirac phase can be achieved. A second stage of the experiment, comprising a further intensity upgrade of the accelerator complex and a densified version of the ORCA detector (Super-ORCA), would allow for up to a 6σ sensitivity to CP violation and a 10º−17º resolution on the CP phase after 10 years of running with a 450 kW beam, competitive with other planned experiments. The initial composition and energy spectrum of the neutrino beam would need to be monitored by a near detector, to be constructed several hundred meters downstream from the proton beam target. The same neutrino beam and near detector set-up would also allow for neutrino-nucleus cross section measurements to be performed. A short-baseline sterile neutrino search experiment would also be possible

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14�294 geography�year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95 uncertainty interval 61·4�61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5�72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7�17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5�70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1 (2·6�5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0 (15·8�18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1 (12·6�16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1 (11·9�14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1, 39·1�44·6), malaria (43·1, 34·7�51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8, 24·8�34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1, 19·3�37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146�000 deaths, 118�000�183�000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393�000 deaths, 228�000�532�000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost YLLs) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.</p

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens