Using Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model Outputs to Inform Projections of Extreme Precipitation Events

Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect between the nature of the events that cause damaging floods and the models used to project how climate change might influence their magnitude. This could be a particular problem when developing scenarios to inform future storm water management options under future climate scenarios. In this study we sought to close this gap, using sub-daily outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) from each of the nine climate regions in the United States. Specifically, we asked 1) whether WRF outputs projected consistent patterns of change for sub-daily and daily precipitation extremes; and 2) whether this dynamically downscaled model projected different magnitudes of change for 3-hourly vs 24-hourly extreme events. We extracted annual maximum values for 3-hour through 24-hour precipitation totals from an 11-year time series of hindcast (1995-2005) and mid-century (2045-2055) climate, and calculated the direction and magnitude of change for 3-hour and 24-hour extreme events over this timeframe. The model results project that the magnitude of both 3-hour and 24-hour events will increase over most regions of the United States, but there was no clear or consistent difference in the relative magnitudes of change for sub-daily vs daily events

Influence of arthritis and non-arthritis related factors on areal bone mineral density (BMDa) in women with longstanding inflammatory polyarthritis: a primary care based inception cohort

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this analysis was to determine the relative influence of disease and non-disease factors on areal bone mineral density (BMD_a) in a primary care based cohort of women with inflammatory polyarthritis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Women aged 16 years and over with recent onset inflammatory polyarthritis were recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) between 1990 and 1993. Subjects were examined at both baseline and follow up for the presence of tender, swollen and deformed joints. At the 10^thanniversary visit, a sub-sample of women were invited to complete a bone health questionnaire and attend for BMD_a(Hologic, QDR 4000). Linear regression was used to examine the association between BMD_awith both (i) arthritis-related factors assessed at baseline and the 10^thanniversary visit and (ii) standard risk factors for osteoporosis. Adjustments were made for age.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>108 women, mean age 58.0 years were studied. Older age, decreasing weight and BMI at follow up were all associated with lower BMD_aat both the spine and femoral neck. None of the lifestyle factors were linked. Indices of joint damage including 10^thanniversary deformed joint count and erosive joint count were the arthritis-related variables linked with a reduction in BMD_aat the femoral neck. By contrast, disease activity as determined by the number of tender and or swollen joints assessed both at baseline and follow up was not linked with BMD_aat either site.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Cumulative disease damage was the strongest predictor of reduced femoral bone density. Other disease and lifestyle factors have only a modest influence.</p

The relationship between self-awareness of attentional status, behavioral performance and oscillatory brain rhythms

High-level cognitive factors, including self-awareness, are believed to play an important role in human visual perception. The principal aim of this study was to determine whether oscillatory brain rhythms play a role in the neural processes involved in self-monitoring attentional status. To do so we measured cortical activity using magnetoencephalography (MEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while participants were asked to self-monitor their internal status, only initiating the presentation of a stimulus when they perceived their attentional focus to be maximal. We employed a hierarchical Bayesian method that uses fMRI results as soft-constrained spatial information to solve the MEG inverse problem, allowing us to estimate cortical currents in the order of millimeters and milliseconds. Our results show that, during self-monitoring of internal status, there was a sustained decrease in power within the 7-13 Hz (alpha) range in the rostral cingulate motor area (rCMA) on the human medial wall, beginning approximately 430 msec after the trial start (p < 0.05, FDR corrected). We also show that gamma-band power (41-47 Hz) within this area was positively correlated with task performance from 40-640 msec after the trial start (r = 0.71, p < 0.05). We conclude: (1) the rCMA is involved in processes governing self-monitoring of internal status; and (2) the qualitative differences between alpha and gamma activity are reflective of their different roles in self-monitoring internal states. We suggest that alpha suppression may reflect a strengthening of top-down interareal connections, while a positive correlation between gamma activity and task performance indicates that gamma may play an important role in guiding visuomotor behavior. © 2013 Yamagishi et al

Association of Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Events in Mobility-Limited Older Adults: The LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) Study.

BACKGROUND:Data are sparse regarding the value of physical activity (PA) surveillance among older adults-particularly among those with mobility limitations. The objective of this study was to examine longitudinal associations between objectively measured daily PA and the incidence of cardiovascular events among older adults in the LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) study. METHODS AND RESULTS:Cardiovascular events were adjudicated based on medical records review, and cardiovascular risk factors were controlled for in the analysis. Home-based activity data were collected by hip-worn accelerometers at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24&nbsp;months postrandomization to either a physical activity or health education intervention. LIFE study participants (n=1590; age 78.9±5.2 [SD] years; 67.2% women) at baseline had an 11% lower incidence of experiencing a subsequent cardiovascular event per 500&nbsp;steps taken per day based on activity data (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.96; P=0.001). At baseline, every 30&nbsp;minutes spent performing activities ≥500&nbsp;counts per minute (hazard ratio, 0.75; confidence interval, 0.65-0.89 [P=0.001]) were also associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events. Throughout follow-up (6, 12, and 24&nbsp;months), both the number of steps per day (per 500&nbsp;steps; hazard ratio, 0.90, confidence interval, 0.85-0.96 [P=0.001]) and duration of activity ≥500&nbsp;counts per minute (per 30&nbsp;minutes; hazard ratio, 0.76; confidence interval, 0.63-0.90 [P=0.002]) were significantly associated with lower cardiovascular event rates. CONCLUSIONS:Objective measurements of physical activity via accelerometry were associated with cardiovascular events among older adults with limited mobility (summary score &gt;10 on the Short Physical Performance Battery) both using baseline and longitudinal data. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01072500

Acute ketamine dysregulates task-related gamma-band oscillations in thalamo-cortical circuits in schizophrenia

Hypofunction of the N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) has been implicated as a possible mechanism underlying cognitive deficits and aberrant neuronal dynamics in schizophrenia. To test this hypothesis, we first administered a sub-anaesthetic dose of S-ketamine (0.006 mg/kg/min) or saline in a single-blind crossover design in 14 participants while magnetoencephalographic data were recorded during a visual task. In addition, magnetoencephalographic data were obtained in a sample of unmedicated first-episode psychosis patients (n = 10) and in patients with chronic schizophrenia (n = 16) to allow for comparisons of neuronal dynamics in clinical populations versus NMDAR hypofunctioning. Magnetoencephalographic data were analysed at source-level in the 1–90 Hz frequency range in occipital and thalamic regions of interest. In addition, directed functional connectivity analysis was performed using Granger causality and feedback and feedforward activity was investigated using a directed asymmetry index. Psychopathology was assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. Acute ketamine administration in healthy volunteers led to similar effects on cognition and psychopathology as observed in first-episode and chronic schizophrenia patients. However, the effects of ketamine on high-frequency oscillations and their connectivity profile were not consistent with these observations. Ketamine increased amplitude and frequency of gamma-power (63–80 Hz) in occipital regions and upregulated low frequency (5–28 Hz) activity. Moreover, ketamine disrupted feedforward and feedback signalling at high and low frequencies leading to hypo- and hyper-connectivity in thalamo-cortical networks. In contrast, first-episode and chronic schizophrenia patients showed a different pattern of magnetoencephalographic activity, characterized by decreased task-induced high-gamma band oscillations and predominantly increased feedforward/feedback-mediated Granger causality connectivity. Accordingly, the current data have implications for theories of cognitive dysfunctions and circuit impairments in the disorder, suggesting that acute NMDAR hypofunction does not recreate alterations in neural oscillations during visual processing observed in schizophrenia

Predicting the Risk of Rheumatoid Arthritis and Its Age of Onset through Modelling Genetic Risk Variants with Smoking

The improved characterisation of risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) suggests they could be combined to identify individuals at increased disease risks in whom preventive strategies may be evaluated. We aimed to develop an RA prediction model capable of generating clinically relevant predictive data and to determine if it better predicted younger onset RA (YORA). Our novel modelling approach combined odds ratios for 15 four-digit/10 two-digit HLA-DRB1 alleles, 31 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and ever-smoking status in males to determine risk using computer simulation and confidence interval based risk categorisation. Only males were evaluated in our models incorporating smoking as ever-smoking is a significant risk factor for RA in men but not women. We developed multiple models to evaluate each risk factor's impact on prediction. Each model's ability to discriminate anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive RA from controls was evaluated in two cohorts: Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC: 1,516 cases; 1,647 controls); UK RA Genetics Group Consortium (UKRAGG: 2,623 cases; 1,500 controls). HLA and smoking provided strongest prediction with good discrimination evidenced by an HLA-smoking model area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.813 in both WTCCC and UKRAGG. SNPs provided minimal prediction (AUC 0.660 WTCCC/0.617 UKRAGG). Whilst high individual risks were identified, with some cases having estimated lifetime risks of 86%, only a minority overall had substantially increased odds for RA. High risks from the HLA model were associated with YORA (P<0.0001); ever-smoking associated with older onset disease. This latter finding suggests smoking's impact on RA risk manifests later in life. Our modelling demonstrates that combining risk factors provides clinically informative RA prediction; additionally HLA and smoking status can be used to predict the risk of younger and older onset RA, respectively

AI is a viable alternative to high throughput screening: a 318-target study

: High throughput screening (HTS) is routinely used to identify bioactive small molecules. This requires physical compounds, which limits coverage of accessible chemical space. Computational approaches combined with vast on-demand chemical libraries can access far greater chemical space, provided that the predictive accuracy is sufficient to identify useful molecules. Through the largest and most diverse virtual HTS campaign reported to date, comprising 318 individual projects, we demonstrate that our AtomNet® convolutional neural network successfully finds novel hits across every major therapeutic area and protein class. We address historical limitations of computational screening by demonstrating success for target proteins without known binders, high-quality X-ray crystal structures, or manual cherry-picking of compounds. We show that the molecules selected by the AtomNet® model are novel drug-like scaffolds rather than minor modifications to known bioactive compounds. Our empirical results suggest that computational methods can substantially replace HTS as the first step of small-molecule drug discovery