A DUAL STATE HIERARCHICAL ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER ALGORITHM

Dynamic models that simulate processes across large geographic locations, such as hydrologic models, are often informed by empirical parameters that are distributed across a geographical area and segmented by geological features such as watersheds. These parameters may be referred to as spatially distributed parameters. Spatially distributed parameters are frequently spatially correlated and any techniques utilized in their calibration ideally incorporate existing spatial hierarchical relationships into their structure. In this paper, a parameter estimation method based on the Dual State Ensemble Kalman Filter called the Dual State Hierarchical Ensemble Kalman Filter (DSHEnKF) is presented. This modified filter is innovative in that it allows parameters to be placed into a set of groups that are smoothed using hierarchical modeling techniques. The usability and effectiveness of this new technique is demonstrated by applying it to a rainfall-runoff model that simulates subcatchment-scale hydrologic processes and contains high dimensional spatially distributed empirical parameters

Mathematical model of uptake and metabolism of arsenic(III) in human hepatocytes - Incorporation of cellular antioxidant response and threshold-dependent behavior

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Arsenic is an environmental pollutant, potent human toxicant, and oxidative stress agent with a multiplicity of health effects associated with both acute and chronic exposures. A semi-mechanistic cellular-level toxicokinetic (TK) model was developed in order to describe the uptake, biotransformation and clearance of arsenical species in human hepatocytes. Notable features of this model are the incorporation of arsenic-glutathione complex formation and a "switch-like" formulation to describe the antioxidant response of hepatocytes to arsenic exposure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The cellular-level TK model applies mass action kinetics in order to predict the concentrations of trivalent and pentavalent arsenicals in hepatocytes. The model simulates uptake of arsenite (iAs^III) via aquaporin isozymes 9 (AQP9s), glutathione (GSH) conjugation, methylation by arsenic methyltransferase (AS3MT), efflux through multidrug resistant proteins (MRPs) and the induced antioxidant response via thioredoxin reductase (TR) activity. The model was parameterized by optimization of model estimates for arsenite (iAs^III), monomethylated (MMA) and dimethylated (DMA) arsenicals concentrations with time-course experimental data in human hepatocytes for a time span of 48 hours, and dose-response data at 24 hours for a range of arsenite concentrations from 0.1 to 10 μM. Global sensitivity analysis of the model showed that at low doses the transport parameters had a dominant role, whereas at higher doses the biotransformation parameters were the most significant. A parametric comparison of the TK model with an analogous model developed for rat hepatocytes from the literature demonstrated that the biotransformation of arsenite (e.g. GSH conjugation) has a large role in explaining the variation in methylation between rats and humans.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The cellular-level TK model captures the temporal modes of arsenical accumulation in human hepatocytes. It highlighted the key biological processes that influence arsenic metabolism by explicitly modelling the metabolic network of GSH-adducts formation. The parametric comparison with the TK model developed for rats suggests that the variability in GSH conjugation could have an important role in inter-species variability of arsenical methylation. The TK model can be incorporated into larger-scale physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models of arsenic for improving the estimates of PBTK model parameters.</p

Measuring governance at health facility level: developing and validation of simple governance tool in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Governance has been cited as a key determinant of economic growth, social advancement and overall development. Achievement of millennium development goals is partly dependant on governance practices. In 2007, Health Systems 20/20 conducted an Internet-based survey on the practice of good governance. The survey posed a set of good practices related to health governance and asked respondents to indicate whether their experience confirmed or disconfirmed those practices. We applied the 17 governance statements in rural health facilities of Zambia. The aim was to establish whether the statements were reliable and valid for assessing governance practices at primary care level. METHODS: Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used. We first applied the governance statements developed by the health system 20/20 and then conducted focus group discussion and In-depth interviews to explore some elements of governance including accountability and community participation. The target respondents were the health facility management team and community members. The sample size include 42 health facilities. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 17 and Nvivo version 9. RESULTS: The 95% one-sided confidence interval for Cronbach's alpha was between 0.69 and 0.74 for the 16 items.The mean score for most of the items was above 3. Factor analysis yielded five principle components: Transparency, community participation, Intelligence & vision, Accountability and Regulation & oversight. Most of the items (6) clustered around the transparency latent factor. Chongwe district performed poorly in overall mean governance score and across the five domains of governance. The overall scores in Chongwe ranged between 51 and 94% with the mean of 80%. Kafue and Luangwa districts had similar overall mean governance scores (88%). Community participation was generally low. Generally, it was noted that community members lacked capacity to hold health workers accountable for drugs and medical supplies. CONCLUSIONS: The study successfully validated and applied the new tool for evaluating health system governance at health facility level. The results have shown that it is feasible to measure governance practices at health facility level and that the adapted tool is fairly reliable with the 95% one-sided confidence interval for Cronbach's alpha laying between 0.69 and 0.74 for the 16 items. Caution should be taken when interpreting overall scores as they tended to mask domain specific variations

Advance diaspora diplomacy in a networked world

The role of diaspora in cultural exchange, international affairs and in economic development is now well established. What is new is the increasing proliferation of national strategies to harness them actively for public diplomacy. This article addresses the rise of Australia’s only formal, global diaspora network: Advance – Australia’s Global Community which has acted self-consciously to become an instrument of public diplomacy. Emerging from a small base in New York, Advance sought to ‘open doors’ for Australians in the world’s biggest market. Cultivating a strong membership base of well-connected individuals in the arts, commerce and professions, Advance developed its network centrality by building partnerships with state governments, Australian universities and federal government agencies. As an elite organisation of high-profile Australians overseas, Advance has developed into a global organisation communicating Australian culture and economic achievements to both Australian national audiences and foreign constituencies

Editors' Note

Editors' Note for the Proceedings of the 2020 Annual Meeting on Phonology (AMP 2020), held at the University of California, Santa Cruz in September 2020

Governance and human resources for health

Despite an increase in efforts to address shortage and performance of Human Resources for Health (HRH), HRH problems continue to hamper quality service delivery. We believe that the influence of governance is undervalued in addressing the HRH crisis, both globally and at country level. This thematic series has aimed to expand the evidence base on the role of governance in addressing the HRH crisis. The six articles comprising the series present a range of experiences. The articles report on governance in relation to developing a joint vision, building adherence and strengthening accountability, and on governance with respect to planning, implementation, and monitoring. Other governance issues warrant attention as well, such as corruption and transparency in decision-making in HRH policies and strategies. Acknowledging and dealing with governance should be part and parcel of HRH planning and implementation. To date, few experiences have been shared on improving governance for HRH policy making and implementation, and many questions remain unanswered. There is an urgent need to document experiences and for mutual learning

Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 ± 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 ± 26 to 154 ± 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 ± 9 to 83 ± 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 ± 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100

Does Photomineralization of Dissolved Organics Matter in Temperate Rivers?

Sunlight can oxidize dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in freshwaters. The importance of complete photooxidation, or photomineralization, as a sink for DOC remains unclear in temperate rivers, as most estimates are restricted to lakes, high latitude rivers, and coastal river plumes. In this study, we construct a model representing over 75,000 river reaches in the Connecticut River Watershed (CRW), USA, to calculate spectrally resolved photomineralization. We test the hypothesis that photomineralization is a negligible DOC sink across all reaches and flow conditions relative to DOC fluxes. Our model quantifies reaction rates and transport drivers within the river reaches for the ranges of flow conditions, incoming solar irradiance, and canopy cover shading observed throughout the year. Our model predicts average daily areal photomineralization rates ranging from 1.16 mg-C m−2 day−1 in low flow river reaches in the winter, to 18.33 mg-C m−2 day−1 in high flow river reaches during the summer. Even for high photomineralization fluxes, corresponding photomineralization uptake velocities are typically at least an order of magnitude smaller than those reported for other instream processes. We calculate DOC elimination by photomineralization relative to DOC fluxes through individual stream reaches as well as the entire riverine portion of the CRW. We find that relative photomineralization fluxes are highest in summer drought conditions in low order streams. In median flows and mean light intensities, for an average watershed travel distance, 3%–5% of the DOC fluxes are eliminated, indicating that photomineralization is a minor DOC sink in temperate rivers

Search for the standard model Higgs boson in the H to ZZ to 2l 2nu channel in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

A search for the standard model Higgs boson in the H to ZZ to 2l 2nu decay channel, where l = e or mu, in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV is presented. The data were collected at the LHC, with the CMS detector, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 inverse femtobarns. No significant excess is observed above the background expectation, and upper limits are set on the Higgs boson production cross section. The presence of the standard model Higgs boson with a mass in the 270-440 GeV range is excluded at 95% confidence level.Comment: Submitted to JHE